Australian Squad for Wales Games

[TNT88]

Thought I'd make a thread for speculation on the aussie line up v Wales seeing as it pops up in most super rugby threads.

I expect Deans to pick a fair few uncapped young players in form, particularly from the Brumbies.

As for the starting 22, I'd be looking at:

Props:
Robinson
Kepu
Slipper
Palmer

Hookers:
Moore
Palota Nau

Locks:
Horwill
Simmons
Sharpe
Pyle

Backrow:
Pocock
Palu
Higgenbotham
Hooper
Mowen/Dennis

Backline (will be all over the shot)

9. Genia/White
10. Beale/Cooper
11. Ioane
12. McCabe/Barnes
13. Horne/AAC
14. Tomane/Cummins/Shipperly
15. AAC/Beale/Mogg

That's off the top of my head.

[psychic duck]

Props:
Robinson
Kepu
Slipper
Palmer

[welshglory]

Don't get too cocky Duck. He won't have an easy time against Robinson and if Moore is next to him he'll add a lot of power as well, Kepu is much better on the tighthead and Palmer is an excellent scrummager.

[psychic duck]

Don't get too cocky Duck. He won't have an easy time against Robinson and if Moore is next to him he'll add a lot of power as well, Kepu is much better on the tighthead and Palmer is an excellent scrummager.

will be interesting to see if they've improved

Robinson had a hard match against the Hair Bear the last time he played Wales

[welshglory]

Aus had Saia Faingaa (shit scrummager) and Ben Alexander (a loosehead playing at tighthead) that day. If they play Moore and Kepu or Palmer there scrum will be much stronger. They are not nearly as bad as some try to make out.

[heineken]

I just read that James O'Connor is out for these tests... Pity, now they need to get another girl to sing the National Anthems before the games...

[TNT88]

haha yes, my bad, O'Connor is out for the Wales games

As for the front row, it's getting there. Robinson and Moore will hold their own against anyone. But that tighthead spot is where we really need to target. I agree that Wales have our measure there. The coaches will be crossing their fingers we get no front row injuries between now and the first test.

edit: Might add a draft XV now, and updated it after each super15 round.

1. Robinson (tahs)
2. Moore (bru)
3. Slipper (reds)
4. Horwill (reds)
5. Simmons (reds)
6. Higgenbotham (reds)
7. Pocock (force)
8. Palu (tahs)
9. Genia (reds)
10. Beale (rebels)
11. Ioane (reds)
12. McCabe (bru)
13. Horne (tahs)
14. Tomane (bru)
15. AAC (tahs)

[SomeOke]

haha yes, my bad, O'Connor is out for the Wales games

As for the front row, it's getting there. Robinson and Moore will hold their own against anyone. But that tighthead spot is where we really need to target. I agree that Wales have our measure there. The coaches will be crossing their fingers we get no front row injuries between now and the first test.

edit: Might add a draft XV now, and updated it after each super15 round.

1. Robinson (tahs)
2. Moore (bru)
3. Slipper (reds)
4. Horwill (reds)
5. Simmons (reds)
6. Higgenbotham (reds)
7. Pocock (force)
8. Palu (tahs)
9. Genia (reds)
10. Beale (rebels)
11. Ioane (reds)
12. McCabe (bru)
13. Horne (tahs)
14. Tomane (bru)
15. AAC (tahs)

Pity Pocock is so good, otherwise I'd love to see Liam Gill or Hooper get a run.
What about shipperly instead of Tomane and Cummins over Horne? Or alternatively Barnes starting at 10 and Beale going back to fullback?
Aus backline players seem to have a lot more versatility than most other countries with most of their players being comfortable just about anywhere.

Not arguing with you just wondering about Aus opinion on the matter .

[TNT88]

All good questions.

Gill is captaining the U20 side at the WC. (I think that clashes)
Hooper definitely needs to be developed, I see him on the bench for a few games. Maybe even coming on at #6 to play alongside Pocock.
Cummins is one I hope gets a go on the bench, great impact player. I would probably start with AAC over him at 13 if Horne is not selected (just to keep experiance in the backline). But if Cummins performs he could be in contention for game 2.
Shipperly is playing well, the public opinion is very much divided over who should get that #14 jersey. I am really just guessing at this point, I doubt the coaches know who they'll choose either.

[Black_Magic]

Or alternatively Barnes starting at 10 and Beale going back to fullback?
Aus backline players seem to have a lot more versatility than most other countries with most of their players being comfortable just about anywhere.

Yeah, but that versatility is both a big asset and a curse - I think players tied to one position develop some specific skills and get even better.
As for that idea with Barnes, I'd vote for that, although he hasn't played well at all in the SR this year. But, as is the case with All Blacks' Nonu and few others, there are players that clearly step up in a national jersey. Barnes was awesome at the RWC last year. The other change I'd make would be to switch AAC to centre, he can play pretty much everywhere (with his weight he could even be useful in the scrum ;-) ), but I think 13 is the right place for him. McCabe & AAC seems like a terrific pairing to me.

So, my Aussie backs would be, from 10 to 15:
Barnes - Ioane - McCabe - Ashley-Cooper - Tomane (not really sure about this one though) - Beale

Who is Cooper Vuna eligible for?

[TRF_Olyy]

I'd like to see AAC back at 15 - I think it's by far his best position, it's just that he's not as good as Beale there. If Beale were to move to 10 then that leaves the 15 spot open for AAC.
I wouldn't put Barnes at 10, I think his best position is 12 - don't know enough about Aussie centres to suggest who to partner him though (Mortlock? )

[TNT88]

AAC is a solid 15. He was also good at #14 last year, was basically playing a 2nd fullback though. If Beale goes to 10 I think he'll be in the outside backs.

Also, the uninjured centres currently are: McCabe, Horne, Faingaa, Inman, Cummins.

Who is Cooper Vuna eligible for?

I imagine NZ, Tonga and probably Australia seeing as he's lived here for a while. I imagine we'll find out either this season or next season considering how good he is getting.

---

Also news came out today that Deans will be using top XV players against Scotland, so some of them will be playing 3 games in 7 days. (Super rugby, Scotland, Wales). Apparently we "can't have a repeat of 2009".

[InsaneAsylum]

would love to see pyle/jones in the locks as rob simmons is useless. gill/hooper in the squad with higgo, pocock, mowen in the backrow
genia, beale, ioane, mccabe, aac, tomane/shipperley/other newbie, gerrard

bench from: elsom, phipps, barnes, a.faingaa, barnes

[InsaneAsylum]

I imagine NZ, Tonga and probably Australia seeing as he's lived here for a while. I imagine we'll find out either this season or next season considering how good he is getting.

he's been impressive as of late, his tackling has improved from the start of the season, but his improved attack has a lot to do with the ball he's getting from beale as opposed to cipriani/o'connor. i think deans will be stupid to go with anyone else but beale at 10 for this reason.

forgot to mention cooper in my previous post, i think he should be in the squad but eased back into the lineup from the bench. i reckon there were a lot of 'learnings' for cooper out of the world cup and he'll come back a better, smarter player. what the wallabies need is genuine wingers to succeed ioane. i'm not a fan of playing a centre (or forward in the case of samo/higgo) on the wing simply because they're a "good player", pick the best team based on each position, not the best players and try to adapt them into unfamiliar positions.

[welshglory]

How about Palu? I think he's the best number 8 in Australia, he seems to be getting back to his best as well.

[TNT88]

Yea, he is getting better as the season goes on. Can't wait to see him in a gold jersey again. The competition is tight for the 8 jersey, but no one is head and shoulders above the rest.

[madflyhalf]

When the squad will be announced?


I think an extended squad could be like thiks

Props: Alexander, Kepu, Robinson, Slipper, Palmer

Hookers: Moore, TPN, Charles, Fainga'a

Second rows: Horwill, Simmons, Jones, Pyle

Backrows: Higginbotham, Pocock, Gill, Palu, Elsom, Samo, Dennis, McCalman

SHs: Genia, White, McKibbin

Inside backs: Barnes, Ashley-Cooper, McCabe, Horne, Cooper, O'Connor

Outside backs: Beale, Ioane, Morahan, Kingston, Gerrard, Cummins Mitchell


IMO
Alexander should be on the bench as he can cover both loose and tighthead, but he's not a pure tighthead, much better Kepu there.

We're gonna see Charles against Scotland I think, he's performing very well for all SR, deserves to be called

Troubles in locks: retiring Sharpe and Vickerman's injury have left a big hole in lineout and much more in tight play as Vickerman is vital for his hard hitting game. Hugh Pyle should be there, he manage lineouts very well, and Luke Jones too I liked him for all SR season, great talent, someone says that he's better at 6, but IMO Wallabies need his game as 4.
Dave Dennis should be 6 with Higginbotham 8 and Palu on the bench. Elsom is nowhere near to a match-22 jersey.

Big dilemma with Gill away with U.20, hope Deans won't forget him for Rugby Championship! He's better than Pocock at the moment, and now Wallabies need more a Gill than a Hooper.

Genia is back in form, Nic White played so good for all SR, McKibbin is the 3d option, still better than Phipps.

Barnes is not playing good, well... he's playing very bad, but he was doing so exactly a year ago, but when Deans trusted him (too late IMO) at RWC he was outstanding. Cooper is on his way back, but 10 jersey now belongs to KB!

Looking forward for the centre pairing: I love AAC at 13, but as I said milions of times before he can't play alongside McCabe (or A Fainga'a), too similar, if Beale will be 10, I'd go with Barnes 12 (waiting for JOC) and AAC 13.
Otherwise I'd try the current 'tahs pairing, with AAC 12 and Horne 13.

For the back 3, AAC is still primary option at 15 if Beale would be at flyhalf spot; Ioane raised up his level in these last few games, Mitchell still recovering and looks it's gonna be better than expected, Kingston and Cummins deserve a call, and, IMO, Morahan.
He's a better option than Shipperley, he can cover 11-14 and mostly 15, his kicking game is better than anyone bar... Mark Gerrard. He's been outstanding in this SR, who knows if he's gonna be selected, he was doing good also in 2011 SR, got his chance against Samoa but didn't do well. Hope to see him tested again!

For first test against Scotland, with mostly Force and Reds players:

Cowan
Charles
Slipper
Jones
Horwill (c)
Higginbotham
Pocock
McCalman
Genia (for 40')
Cooper
Ioane
McCabe
Cummins
Shipperley
Morahan


after this test, the best 22 could be:

Robinson
Moore
Kepu
Simmons/Jones/Pyle
Horwill
Higginbotham/Dennis
Pocock
Palu/McCalman
Genia
Beale
Ioane
Barnes (O'Connor if fit)
Horne
Gerrard
Ashley-Cooper

TPN, Alexander, Pyle/Simmons/Jones, McCalman/Samo, White, Cooper/Barnes (if JOC fit), Morahan/Cummins/Kingston

[TRF_Darwin]

Really good analysis madflyhalf! Just heard it mentioned that the squad is set to be named tomorrow.

Looking the extended squad you suggest:

Props: Alexander, Kepu, Robinson, Slipper, Palmer

Agree with these 5 props, though I expect Ma'afu will still be ahead of Palmer in the pecking order. Palmer is a bit limited around the field, but he is a strong scrummaging tight-head prop - a rarity among Aussie props!

Hookers: Moore, TPN, Charles, Fainga'a

Agree again. Hanson has also been good for the Reds.

Second rows: Horwill, Simmons, Jones, Pyle

Is Sharpe still available? If so I expect he will be picked. Jones has been good, and Pyle deserves a chance. I expect he Waratahs duo of Timani and Douglas will be close too. Peter Kimlin may also be an option.

Backrows: Higginbotham, Pocock, Gill, Palu, Elsom, Samo, Dennis, McCalman

By the sounds of it Elsom will miss out - a good decision in my opinion. I don't expect Samo to be selected either, as he's struggled to make the Reds 22 this season, as is almost 36! I think Ben Mowen will be close to inclusion as he has been very consistent all season for the Brumbies. Liam Gill will be captaining the under 20 team in South Africa so I don't think he will be included (though he does warrant inclusion based on his form), so I expect Michael Hooper will be given a chance to backup Pocock, while Matt Hodgson may also be included.

SHs: Genia, White, McKibbin

Massive step down from Genia to be next best 9! I expect Phipps will be included, though he has been pretty average for most of the year. White has impressed at times, as has McKibben

Inside backs: Barnes, Ashley-Cooper, McCabe, Horne, Cooper, O'Connor

Agree with these selections, and I also think Anthony Faingaa will be inlcuded.

Outside backs: Beale, Ioane, Morahan, Kingston, Gerrard, Cummins Mitchell

Looks like Mitchell will be fit, though whether he will be ready for test rugby is another question! Probably one of the most open areas in the squad is the outside backs - I think the likes Vuna, Tomane, Mogg, Shipperly are all genuine options too.

[ZeFrenchy]

There was an article in the excellent blog Green and Gold Rugby (http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com) about the Aussie front row. Personally, I think they're a bit too optimistic, but here's what they say:

With the June Test around the corner we thought it was time to look at the contenders for wallaby spots in each game. We have Tests against Scotland on Tuesday the 5th and Wales on the 3 following Saturdays. The make up of the first test side will be strongly influenced by the Super Rugby schedule with the Reds and the Force both having byes on the weekend before the match. Further complicating things is the need to field a competitive side 4 days later for the Welsh test.
Firstly lets look at the contenders for the positions.
The Contenders:

From The Reds:
Ben Daley, James Slipper, Greg Holmes
Saia Faingaa, James Hanson
From the Force:
Pek Cowan, Salesi Ma’afu, Kieran Longbottom
Nathan Charles
From the Waratahs:
Benn Robinson, Sekope Kepu
Tatafu Polota-Nau
From The Brumbies:
Ben Alexander, Dan Palmer
Stephen Moore.
From The Rebels:
Rodney Blake
Adam Freier
That’s a pretty big list! But not all of these players will be in the mix for a spot in the tests for various reasons. A test prop needs a good range of skills across all the front row disciplines and also needs to contribute around the field. Some of the guys above are not up there on one or more of the essentials.
The Incumbents.

James Slipper, Tatafu Polota-Nau and Salesi Ma’afu started the last test match against Wales on 3 December 2011. Of these three only Slipper has the weekend before the first test off, but he is also a possibility for the game day squad on Saturday against Wales.
Let’s look at how the candidates are going.
Firstly the props.
June Tests Props

Players	Ave Mins	Runs (No)	Runs (m)	Pen Conceded	Ruck & Maul	Tackles Attempted/Made	Tackles Made (%)
Ben Daley	48.14	3.14	14.86	1.14	3.00	8.14/7.85	97.57%
Greg Holmes	40.71	3.29	15.43	0.71	2.57	6.57/6	91.57%
James Slipper	73.71	4.43	14.57	1.14	4.43	8.42/7.14	86.86%
Pekahou Cowan	70.88	5.63	21.75	0.63	6.25	9.5/8.37	90.88%
Salesi Ma'afu	46.50	3.00	8.38	1.38	2.88	5.37/4.25	79.25%
Benn Robinson	78.14	4.14	11.29	1.14	3.86	9.71/8.28	85.43%
Sekope Kepu	62.71	2.14	8.57	1.00	2.14	9.42/8.14	85.29%
Ben Alexander	71.33	5.67	20.00	0.83	5.17	14/12.16	85.67%
Dan Palmer	63.20	2.00	6.60	0.60	2.20	11.6/9.8	84.80%
Rodney Blake	37.57	3.29	14.86	0.86	2.86	5.57/4.42	80.57%

I’m going to pick my front row for the Scottish test by ignoring the players I think will line up against Wales. So Benn Robinson, Sekope Kepu, Tatafu Polota-Nau and Stephen Moore Will sit out this game. Robinson and Kepu are still our best props and as long as Deans leaves Kepu on the tight head side he will do fine. The third props spot is between James Slipper and Ben Alexander. I think Alexander will get the nod here. He is playing a tighter game this year and I think his work rate is hard to ignore and the temptation of playing Slipper against the Scots will prove too strong to resist.
Which means Slipper is my first prop for the Scots. I think Dan Palmer is a chance for the second spot. The Brumbies have a Friday night game and the Aussie coaches will be keen to see how he goes. I’m picking a dark horse for the third propping spot. I think they will go for an old head for this spot. Someone who just gets the job done. So I’m saying Greg Holmes fits that description nicely.

Scrums - Who's got it and who hasn't

James Hanson and Nathan Charles are both great young hookers and this is a good chance to see how they look at the next level. I think at least one will feature in the Scottish test along with Saia Faingaa who has returned from injury with a bang.. As for the Welsh test I think Stephen Moore will start and Tatafu Polota-Nau will be on the Bench.
June Test Hookers

Player	Average Mins	Runs (No)	Runs (m)	Ruck/Maul	Penalties conceded	T/Over	Lineouts Thrown	Lineouts Lost On Throw	Lineouts Not Straight	Tackles Attempted	Tackles Made %
Stephen Moore	74.50	7.60	30.00	7.50	0.60	1.90	9.00	0.90	0.40	13.20	89.40%
James Hanson	63.55	4.73	20.91	4.55	0.18	1.64	8.91	0.45	0.45	8.27	87.36%
Nathan Charles	75.91	3.00	12.09	2.64	0.27	1.09	13.36	0.45	0.09	7.73	73.45%
Tatafu Polota-Nau	61.70	4.10	28.30	3.30	0.50	1.30	7.90	0.20	0.60	7.50	83.90%
Adam Freier	31.13	2.75	4.63	2.63	0.88	0.75	4.63	0.38	0.13	5.75	63.63%

So there you have it. I think it couldn’t be clearer. I believe it’s entirely possible for Australia to field 2 completely unique front rows for the first 2 tests and still be very competitive. In fact if you look at the players running around Super Rugby this year it’s hard to think of a time where our front row stocks have been better. So have I forgotten someone? Let me know where you think I’ve got it wrong. But I’m right I know I am!

I think it tells a lot that among all those statistics, the only one related to scrummaging, is penalties conceded...

[TNT88]

40 man squad announced today. (I'd guess it will eventually be cut down to 30)

Props:

Ben Alexander
Benn Robinson
Selope Kepu
Salesi Ma'afu
Dan Palmer
James Slipper

Hookers:

Stephen Moore
Tatafu Polota-Nau
Saia Faingaa

Locks:

Nathan Sharpe
Rob Simmons
Cadeyrn Neville
Hugh Pyle
Sitaleki Timani

Backrow:

David Pocock
Dave Dennis
Kane Douglas
Scott Higgginbotham
Michael Hooper
Ben McCalman
Wycliff Palu

Halfbacks:

Will Genia
Nick Phipps
Nic White

Fly Halves:

Berrick Barnes
Kurtley Beale
Quade Cooper

Centres:

Anthony Faingaa
Mike Harris
Rob Horne
Pat McCabe

Outside Backs:

Adam Ashley-Cooper
Bernard Foley
Digby Ioane
Jesse Mogg
Luke Morahan
Dom Shipperley
Joe Tomane
Cooper Vuna

[ZeFrenchy]

I can't understand (I think no-one can) Deans' love for Ma'afu. Holmes should have been selected ahead of him (and, btw, then you would have the full frontrows of the Reds, Brumbies and Waratahs).
Ben Mowen, Ben Tapuai and Ben Lucas (the Red Bens) could/should have made the squad.
I expect some aussie media uproar on McCalman's selection, though I rate him personally.

[Invictus]

Ben Lucas is pretty average... Will do an ok job at Super Level (though that's not really good enough for a 10), but I don't think he'll add anything to the Oz backline. Tapuai and Faainga are very similar players, in my opinion, so Deans looks to have gone for a more rounded set of centres with Faainga, Harris and McCable all offering different skill sets. Horne sort of sits in the middle of them all.

[TRF_Darwin]

I can't understand (I think no-one can) Deans' love for Ma'afu. Holmes should have been selected ahead of him (and, btw, then you would have the full frontrows of the Reds, Brumbies and Waratahs).
Ben Mowen, Ben Tapuai and Ben Lucas (the Red Bens) could/should have made the squad.
I expect some aussie media uproar on McCalman's selection, though I rate him personally.

I'm not a huge fan of Ma'afu personally, but his scrummaging has improved a lot over the last year or so.
Ben Mowen must have been close (though I don't know which loosie I would have dropped to include him). Ben Tapuai is out injured (broken collar-bone), and I'm surprised
Ben Lucas wasn't included, though he has missed the last couple of matches with injury - I wonder whether his injury is serious?

Horwill is a big loss, and I'm surprised to see Cadeyrn Neville included given he has only played 3-4 games of Super Rugby! Not too surprised to see Mike Harris included (considering the injury problems they have at 10...). The only other surprise to me is Bernard Foley, as I think they already have plenty of fullback cover.

[InsaneAsylum]

how is mike harris eligible? he's a kiwi and only been here since 2011.

I would have also gone luke jones over cadeyrn neville, ben mowen should have been picked and simmons is useless

[ZeFrenchy]

how is mike harris eligible? he's a kiwi and only been here since 2011.

I would have also gone luke jones over cadeyrn neville, ben mowen should have been picked and simmons is useless

Granny from Oz.

[TNT88]

I can't understand (I think no-one can) Deans' love for Ma'afu.

Me either. Ma'afu wont even get in the 22 though, so not much point worrying about it. I'd say he is just there in case we get like 4 injuries, in which case we have an experienced prop to bring in rather than a newbie.

McCalman's selection was odd but predictable, Deans seems to like him. Probably because he is relatively young, has good strength/size, gets over the advantage line and knows the wallabies set up. So do a lot of other players though, so who knows...

[madflyhalf]

how is mike harris eligible? he's a kiwi and only been here since 2011.

I would have also gone luke jones over cadeyrn neville, ben mowen should have been picked and simmons is useless

Yes! Absolutely!

But maybe he's touring with U.20 alongside with Gill?

[TRF_Darwin]

Yes! Absolutely!

But maybe he's touring with U.20 alongside with Gill?

Nah, Jones is too old for the under 20's this year (turned 21 last month). Can't say I've seen a lot of Neville, but he is huge, and a genuine tight-head lock who plays a very tight game. In contrast Luke Jones plays a much loser game (he is equally capable at 6) - like others I would have liked to see Jones involved, but I can only assume that Neville is the style of lock they are looking at.

[Larksea]

I think if the Aussies go for Beale at 10 they will be in safe hands

my understanding is that Horwill is also out of the series.

[big ginger 8]

Hugh Pyle is going to become a national hero in Australia.