Find TRF at:
Originally Posted by TRF_Darwin With Cooper out I see the Sharks as favorites for this match. If the Reds bring Ben Lucas in at 10 I think they still have a chance, but if they move Harris into 10 and bring in Tapuai at 12 (which I think they will) I think they will struggle. This is nothing against Tapuai (who I actually rate as a better player than Lucas), it is just that with Harris at 10 the Reds will struggle to play an expansive game-plan, which I think they must do if they are going to match the Sharks. I highly doubt they will put harris at 10, lucas at ten everything else will remain the same, not sure who will come onto the bench. Lucas is very solid at FH and will surprise a lot of people I think.
Tough one to pick this game, Reds should be faves but the Sharks forwards will be too much for the Reds I feel. Quade or no Quade it's the forwards where this will be won and without Horwill I don't see the Reds winning this. Sharks to take it by 5.
With the final round of the regular season behind us, we have the 6 remaining teams. The 4 teams heading into the play-offs are determined to make it to the semi's. Who has the best chance? What are the stats head-to-head? And what can history tell us about the results coming on Saturday? The Reds and Sharks are not the most successful teams in the competition, but they are regarded as 2 of the most promising teams. The Reds won the championship last season by beating the Crusaders in the final after topping the log in the regular season. The Sharks, who finished 6th, lost in the play-offs to the same team. What will history say about this match-up? Who has the upper-hand and who is the underdog? Is it really the Sharks drawing the short straw? Let's see and find out. The match between the Reds and Sharks is a repeat of the first ever play-off match in the competition. Back in 1996, the Sharks, who had amazing talent in captain Gary Teichmann, Andre Joubert, James Small, Ollie le Roux and Mark Andrews, travelled to Brisbane to take on the Reds, who finished top of the log. It was the first and only time these 2 teams met in the play-offs and the match itself was a cracker! With a 25-43 score, the Reds came short and saw the Sharks head towards the final by scoring 5 tries to 3. The Sharks went on to lose in the final to the Blues by an almost similar margin: 45-21 with 6 tries to 2. The Sharks became the first losing finalist and it wouldn't be the last time. 1997 was a disappointing season for the Reds but the Sharks ended 4th again, giving them a play-off match against the Blues. The repeat of the final the previous year turned out to be one of the highest-scoring play-off matches in Super Rugby history. A total of 10 tries overall and a 55-36 final score meant the Sharks were out, again losing to the Auckland-based team. In 1998, the Sharks made the play-offs again and this time they lost to the Crusaders 36-32. When travelling, the Sharks struggle when playing in New Zealand while they beat the Reds in Brisbane. Is that a sign? Or have things changed too much? The Sharks missed out on 2 play-off series in the following years, but the Reds, with guys like captain Tim Horan, Chris Latham, Jacob Rauluni and John Eales, were in the semi's. Again they topped the log and again they had a semi-final at home. Again they lost. The Crusaders were stronger and eventually went on to win their second title, after beating the Sharks the year before to go to their first victory. 2001 was a season where both teams made the play-offs, with the Sharks being victorious, playing the Cats at home. They won 30-12 and a final was waiting the Durban-fans again. The Reds lost a day later to the Brumbies and the Brumbies, lead by George Gregan on the field, went on to win the title by beating the Sharks. Again the Sharks lost a final. After 2001, it was quiet in both Durban and Brisbane for a couple of years. Neither team managed to make it to the top-4. Only in 2007 the Sharks were present again. This time as log-leaders, they went into the play-offs as the big favorites. The Sharks beat the Blues, finally getting revenge for the 1996 final, but the good feeling was lost quickly when the Bulls stole the title at the death in the final at Kings Park in Durban. The Sharks-fans were heart-broken, losing yet another final. This time even at home. Will the Sharks ever win the Super Rugby championship? The Sharks only managed to get the play-offs twice afterwards. In 2008 they lost to the Waratahs, a loss that nobody could argue with, but it would be 3 years before the play-offs would be reached again. In 2011 the Sharks lost the play-off against the Crusaders. After playing the Christchurch team earlier that season at Twickenham, London, the Sharks lost 36-8 in Nelson, the temporary venue used due to the earthquake in Christchurch earlier that year. During the play-offs, the Reds had a week off, being log-leaders. In the semi's the Reds played the Blues. In a game remembered for Rod Davies' hat-trick the Reds cruised to victory and were ready to host their first ever Super Rugby final. In that final they beat the Crusaders 18-13 for their first ever Super Rugby championship. But what does this mean? Yes, the Reds have won a title in their only final played. The Sharks made the final 3 times, losing it as many, still waiting for the silverware. The Reds have played a total of 5 play-off matches of which they won 2 and lost the other 3. This gives them a winning ratio of 40%. The Sharks have more play-off experience as a franchise, having played a total of 10 play-off matches of which they won 3. It gives them a winning ratio of 30%. This is not an important factor when you look at the teams. The Reds team is almost entirely made up of last season's champions and they know what it's like to win. The Sharks team however, has a lot of players who dealt with the loss of 2007. Keegan Daniel, Ryan Kankowski, Bismarck du Plessis, Tendai Mtawarira, Francois Steyn (although not playing), Jacques Botes and JP Pietersen were all present that year. Will it help? I guess it all depends on the form of the day. The Reds are without the suspended Quade Cooper. The Sharks have to face the challenge knowing that Patrick Lambie (injury) and Francois Steyn (not eligible) are not available. Will we see a repeat of the 1996 semi-final? Or will the Sharks lose for a 3rd time in a row when playing in Australia for the play-offs? If the Reds win, it will be their first play-off victory against a South African team. We will have to wait and see. Back to Blog
Good write-up, Eze. Always interesting as I see history as a good indicator almost as much as current form (of which both teams have shown over the last 2 rounds). I'd even go as far as to say these are the two form teams ATM though teams like the Crusaders and Stormers know how to win ugly. I'm tempted to through the Bulls in there but i think their new team still need a season together as they've lost the crunch matches this year IMO. I just hope the Sharks dominate the Reds up front and contain the backs (a lot depends on how Genia handles the pressure on the day) to go on.
Thanks! I like to throw a lot of history in these stories. The most work went into the artwork though. Finding the photo's was freakin' difficult haha
How about that Super 10 loss in the final against Queensland at home
Originally Posted by Shovenose How about that Super 10 loss in the final against Queensland at home That was some Reds team back then and Latham is the one Aussie I am a fan of. Reds have been shit from then to now but they've had a great team and this one can still go from good to great. I just think they lack the depth and I can see the Sharks take this one away from home.
Originally Posted by Shovenose How about that Super 10 loss in the final against Queensland at home Super Rugby started in 1996. The competitions before that (Super 10 and Super 6) were amateur competitions without a structured schedule and to top it off, it wasn't a fully club-based competition to start with. Western Samoa and Tonga were part of it.
Once again an excellent write-up Eze You should write part time and get paid for it - I would approach the top sites and give them a sample of your talent
Thanks, but I don't really feel the need to do that. I like writing for TRF, because of the bond I feel with the people here. By writing for TRF, I can just put everything in it for the people here. The only thing that worries me every time I write, is the grammar. English is my second language and that makes me struggle a bit, but I'll get through it every time haha. I really got the motivation again lately to write stuff and will try to keep it up during the remainder of the season. Although, I have to admit that I am often annoyed by the amateurism of websites like superxv.com. They just copy-paste line-ups which leaves the site without a certain identity and they should put more effort in that.
TRF is lucky to have you! The grammar is fine, all of us speak the same language called RUGBY see a site like www.sarugby.com - I like the way they do things I know one of their contributers
The Sharks 1. Tendai Mtawarira 2. Bismarck du Plessis 3. Jannie du Plessis 4. Willem Alberts 5. Anton Bresler 6. Keegan Daniel (Captain) 7. Marcell Coetzee 8. Ryan Kankowski 9. Charl McLeod 10. Frederic Michalak 11. Lwazi Mvovo 12. Tim Whitehead 13. Paul Jordaan 14. JP Pietersen 15. Louis Ludik Replacements 16. Craig Burden 17. Wiehahn Herbst 18. Steven Sykes 19. Jacques Botes 20. Cobus Reinach 21. Meyer Bosman 22. Odwa Ndungane
Originally Posted by TRF_Ezequiel The Sharks 1. Tendai Mtawarira 2. Bismarck du Plessis 3. Jannie du Plessis 4. Willem Alberts 5. Anton Bresler 6. Keegan Daniel (Captain) 7. Marcell Coetzee 8. Ryan Kankowski 9. Charl McLeod 10. Frederic Michalak 11. Lwazi Mvovo 12. Tim Whitehead 13. Paul Jordaan 14. JP Pietersen 15. Louis Ludik Replacements 16. Craig Burden 17. Wiehahn Herbst 18. Steven Sykes 19. Jacques Botes 20. Cobus Reinach 21. Meyer Bosman 22. Odwa Ndungane f**k me that is an impressive forward pack, there will be a few reds forwards who may be quite scared. Backline should have the wood over the sharks but jees i hope there ain't too many scrums.
I am very happy to see this backline. Paul Jordaan was part of the Baby Boks who won the Junior World Championship, Whitehead is the form center in South Africa at the moment (Who'd have thought that hey) and Ludik by far the most consistent full-back in the country. He deserves a Bok call-up. Pietersen and Mvovo are obvious choices of course. I am a bit weary about McLeod vs. Genia. That is a battle won by the Reds SH by a mile! Beast back means we see Bresler pulling off some acrobatic acts again.
If both teams were to play at full potential I would back the Sharks even though the Reds are at home. The Reds do have a very good record at home though. Scratch that; the Reds do have an excellent record at home. And Genia is the type of player that can win a game singlehandedly even if the team he is playing for is beaten everywhere else... tough one to call.
Sharks don't travel well, fact. I just hope this will be different. It's about time we win a play-off match outside SA.
Pretty good looking sharks team, though I am a bit surprised to see Alberts at lock. Though he certainly has some size (and I think he may have played there in the past?) I'm not quite convinced about this selection - it looks like a case of getting the best players on the park rather than getting the best players for each position. I'm not too worried about the lineout (Kankowski and Daniel take plenty of ball) or the scrum (as Alberts is a massive unit) it is more in general play I'd be concerned. Alberts is a great ball runner, but I wonder whether they will have enough players doing the 'dirty work' with him at lock - he is far more comfortable being the man taking the ball up rather than the 2nd or 3rd man to the breakdown to clean out a secure quick ball (a primary role of a lock in my opinion). I don't think it will be a massive issue vs the Reds, I'm just not sure the playoffs are the right time to start experimenting! Good to see Joordan getting the start at centre - he looks a player with a big future.
Don't forget Coetzee. He plays 3 positions at once. He is really a beast. Wynne Grey said on Re-Union: "He's like Schalk Burger, but with skill" haha
Originally Posted by TRF_Ezequiel Don't forget Coetzee. He plays 3 positions at once. He is really a beast. Wynne Grey said on Re-Union: "He's like Schalk Burger, but with skill" haha I'm a massive fan of Coetzee (I think he is clearly the best 7 in South Africa at the moment), but I think he fills a very similar role to Alberts. Both make huge yards with ball in hand, and smash people on defense (though I think Coetzee is far more accurate than Alberts, and has a better work-rate), though neither particularly impress me at the breakdown. I just think the Sharks have to be careful against the Reds, as if their support players are a fraction of a second late arriving Liam Gill is an expert at pilfering the ball. I'm just a bit worried that the likes of Alberts, Coetzee, and Kankowski are going to be standing back waiting to have the next run, rather than being there to provide support for the ball runner....
Yeah, that worried me against the Cheetahs with Brussow. We need a real fetcher. With Coetzee in the 7-jersey, that's difficult. I prefer Alberts at 7, Coetzee at 6 with either Kanko or Daniel as the 8-man. The problem is that we are missing too many locks at the moment. Hargreaves, du Toit are injured, Skeate is gone off to France, Sykes still injury-prone (and not a good lock anyway). Alberts as a lock is difficult. I prefer Kanko in the lock position if we have to 'outsource' the tasks to a loosie anyway. He has the length and the strength for it.
Looking forward to this should be an open game with lots of running. Plenty of players capable of making some big runs in that Shark's pack.
Originally Posted by TRF_Ezequiel Yeah, that worried me against the Cheetahs with Brussow. We need a real fetcher. With Coetzee in the 7-jersey, that's difficult. I prefer Alberts at 7, Coetzee at 6 with either Kanko or Daniel as the 8-man. The problem is that we are missing too many locks at the moment. Hargreaves, du Toit are injured, Skeate is gone off to France, Sykes still injury-prone (and not a good lock anyway). Alberts as a lock is difficult. I prefer Kanko in the lock position if we have to 'outsource' the tasks to a loosie anyway. He has the length and the strength for it. Kanko at second row... Dear lord Eze, I thought we got that idea out of you! Marais should have have the other second row position, now Alberts. Still not as bad an playing Deysel at second row.
In Shaun we trust @draggs_XV
Apparently there was a fire at the Sharks tank this morning. Got this pic via my FB. Will see if I can find more info about this.
Apple is the hair of my motor Yeah, pimped and ready to roll
Fire is under control now. Looks worse than it is.
what is the reds backline looking like :?
This can't be Naas Botha.........This man is running with the ball...
Reds may still try to get Cooper in.
Originally Posted by Icemn what is the reds backline looking like :? genia lucas ioane harris faingaa shipperley morahan cooper definitely not playing
Genia, Ioane and Shippperly are dangerous! This will be a battle that's very unpredictable.
The sharks will win the "forward" battle... The Reds must offer something in the backline to come up on top....
Originally Posted by Icemn The sharks will win the "forward" battle... The Reds must offer something in the backline to come up on top.... I agree, hopefully the sharks will underestimate ben lucas as I think he is a very solid player and can be pretty dangerous, expect tapuai to get a fair bit of game time also.
