Early 6 Nations Predictions Post AI’s

[Ragey Erasmus]

When was the last time we beat them in France probably about 2016 or something.

Watching them put 50 plus on us at Twickenham in 2023 was a fun experience. I'm still waiting for that England team to turn up.

Ah yes, early on when Borthwick was trying to accumulate as many "worst ever" records as possible, with that being the largest winning margin either side have ever had against the other.

 

[ShropshireAllBlack]

In the 6N era, there have been 7 Lions tours. 2026 will be the 7th post Lions 6N. France have won 4 of them (3 Grand Slams) and Ireland 2 (1 Grand Slam). My pet theory is that the countries with significant Lions representation are knackered by the time the 6N rolls around. My money is on France getting the slam, England 2nd, Scotland 3rd and Ireland will come 4th. Italy & Wales will play for the spoon.

 

[OllyM97]

In the 6N era, there have been 7 Lions tours. 2026 will be the 7th post Lions 6N. France have won 4 of them (3 Grand Slams) and Ireland 2 (1 Grand Slam). My pet theory is that the countries with significant Lions representation are knackered by the time the 6N rolls around. My money is on France getting the slam, England 2nd, Scotland 3rd and Ireland will come 4th. Italy & Wales will play for the spoon.

I think the whole thing about France dominating the 6N post Lions is a bit of a myth tbh. The stats are the stats - but, I think the main reason why France do well in that scenario is that in an even year they have England and Ireland, the two most consistently competitive teams in the 6N era at home and the Championship is basically gifted to them on a plate before a ball has been kicked. Another reason why having set opponents home and away in a particular year that takes no account of current rankings is absolutely ridiculous. The 6N fixtures should be done by seeding every year to give every side a more balanced list taking into account the rankings at the time. I mean next year France have got England (3), Ireland (4), plus Italy (10) at home - and Scotland (9) and Wales (12) away. How is that remotely fair?. It’s complete garbage.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I think the whole thing about France dominating the 6N post Lions is a bit of a myth tbh. The stats are the stats - but, I think the main reason why France do well in that scenario is that in an even year they have England and Ireland, the two most consistently competitive teams in the 6N era at home and the Championship is basically gifted to them on a plate before a ball has been kicked. Another reason why having set opponents home and away in a particular year that takes no account of current rankings is absolutely ridiculous. The 6N fixtures should be done by seeding every year to give every side a more balanced list taking into account the rankings at the time. I mean next year France have got England (3), Ireland (4), plus Italy (10) at home - and Scotland (9) and Wales (12) away. How is that remotely fair?. It's complete garbage.

Doing it by seeding is even worse, it could cause a right mess with repeated home or away games on certain fixtures. A few years ago we wouldn't have been bothered by France or Scotland away and would have been bothered by Wales away. It shifts and sometimes works well for some teams, other times it doesn't.

Ultimately if you're going to be the best, you need to be able to handle it. Think South Africa would care away to any of the 6n teams?

 

[Welsh Exile]

I think the whole thing about France dominating the 6N post Lions is a bit of a myth tbh. The stats are the stats - but, I think the main reason why France do well in that scenario is that in an even year they have England and Ireland, the two most consistently competitive teams in the 6N era at home and the Championship is basically gifted to them on a plate before a ball has been kicked. Another reason why having set opponents home and away in a particular year that takes no account of current rankings is absolutely ridiculous. The 6N fixtures should be done by seeding every year to give every side a more balanced list taking into account the rankings at the time. I mean next year France have got England (3), Ireland (4), plus Italy (10) at home - and Scotland (9) and Wales (12) away. How is that remotely fair?. It's complete garbage.

I think you'll find we're 11th now bud. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

 

[Saintjay]

I think the whole thing about France dominating the 6N post Lions is a bit of a myth tbh. The stats are the stats - but, I think the main reason why France do well in that scenario is that in an even year they have England and Ireland, the two most consistently competitive teams in the 6N era at home and the Championship is basically gifted to them on a plate before a ball has been kicked. Another reason why having set opponents home and away in a particular year that takes no account of current rankings is absolutely ridiculous. The 6N fixtures should be done by seeding every year to give every side a more balanced list taking into account the rankings at the time. I mean next year France have got England (3), Ireland (4), plus Italy (10) at home - and Scotland (9) and Wales (12) away. How is that remotely fair?. It's complete garbage.

Fairness of revenue split maybe? The SRU and WRU etc are not giving up home games so the richer unions can make even more money. Also to allow fans to see there own team play at home. I'd rather watch England in Edinburgh or Cardiff. Far better day out.

The most competitive teams of the 6 nations era is France 7 wins tied with England. France edge England on Grandslams 4-2. I don't think England are even top 3 on Slam wins in the 6 nations era.

 

[Quel Carreleur]

Also on sporting merit, where you want to beat teams both home and away.
England are low on grandslams - not because the fixture list always hates us, but because the Scots, Welsh and Irish always hate us - and always raise their game against us, and the only thing they like better than stopping us winning a slam is to win one of their own (and plenty would actually prefer to prevent England winning one).

I've no problem with mixing up the fixture list - but A] it needs to be done well in advance so that tickets can be sold, B] basing it on seedings is just favouritism (but is completely inappropriate for a competition that isn't knock-out), and C] won't solve the problem you're complaining about (IMO)

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Also on sporting merit, where you want to beat teams both home and away.
England are low on grandslams - not because the fixture list always hates us, but because the Scots, Welsh and Irish always hate us - and always raise their game against us, and the only thing they like better than stopping us winning a slam is to win one of their own (and plenty would actually prefer to prevent England winning one).

I've no problem with mixing up the fixture list - but A] it needs to be done well in advance so that tickets can be sold, B] basing it on seedings is just favouritism (but is completely inappropriate for a competition that isn't knock-out), and C] won't solve the problem you're complaining about (IMO)

That doesn't apply for Ireland at all.

I'd say 2001 and 2004 are our only wins where there was a big gulf in terms of world rankings and 2004 was the first of 4 wins on the bounce and 7 wins in 8.

Since 2001 the best examples of a team raising their level for a one off performance in this fixture are England in 2022 and 2024 imo.

 

[Welsh Exile]

England normally raise their game for Wales as well. They love it. This narrative that the English never get themselves up for big games is rubbish in my humble opinion.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

England normally raise their game for Wales as well. They love it. This narrative that the English never get themselves up for big games is rubbish in my humble opinion.

I also can't think of any 6n where England won 4/5 and lost to Scotland.

 

[Half Pint]

I also can't think of any 6n where England won 4/5 and lost to Scotland.

..yet.

 

[Brown Bottle]

I also can't think of any 6n where England won 4/5 and lost to Scotland.

2000. Lost at Murrayfield in the final match.

 

[wombles]

1: England (heavily caveated & with great caution here)!
2: France
3: Ireland
4: Italy
5: Scotland
6: Wales

TBH I can see any of the top 3 winning the 6N, Ireland are not the force they once were, but they are not far off, and it would not take much to get back there. France are simply quality, especially with Dupont marshalling the team. England....well they have a team that can get the title and the slam, and it has been many a year since we have said that. But Ireland are a tough nut to crack, Scotland at Murrayfield is one heck of a task, its the Calcutta cup after all! (and one I still desperately want to win every year). France on a Saturday evening in Paris is just what the French Doctor ordered for our neighbours from across the channel, and although underwhelming in the AIs les blues still are a world class team!

This year though, I do think it will be a tournament of 2 divisions. Italy are continuing to impress and improve, and will push Scotland hard. Scotland, after the AIs are in a darker place, and it will take a lot to push into the top 3, i'm just not sure they have the depth of player to do this at present, with the bench not having much of an impact in the AIs. Wales are a slight mystery, but I think as the tournament progresses their lack of player depth, lack of power and set piece will be exposed, especially by the top 3, but Scotland and Italy have teams that can expose this as well. I also think their attacking threats will be more and more combated as other teams work them out. For Wales, just as the AIs were about beating Japan, I think this 6N's is about getting a win against Italy or Scotland. Both of them would be a good tournament return.

It will be a fascinating Championship!

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

2000. Lost at Murrayfield in the final match.

To make it even worse we were 4/4 and they were 0/4.

Fair play to the Scots for employing their tactical trump card though. ️

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

I also can't think of any 6n where England won 4/5 and lost to Scotland.

Massively want to forget Murrayfield 1990 when both were going for a 5N GS, but the scars run too deep.

 

[OllyM97]

Also on sporting merit, where you want to beat teams both home and away.
England are low on grandslams - not because the fixture list always hates us, but because the Scots, Welsh and Irish always hate us - and always raise their game against us, and the only thing they like better than stopping us winning a slam is to win one of their own (and plenty would actually prefer to prevent England winning one).

I've no problem with mixing up the fixture list - but A] it needs to be done well in advance so that tickets can be sold, B] basing it on seedings is just favouritism (but is completely inappropriate for a competition that isn't knock-out), and C] won't solve the problem you're complaining about (IMO)

In fairness, I think Ireland have long gone past that sort of mentality. They still want to beat England, of course they do, but it no longer completely defines a season for them. They beat us this year but nobody involved in Irish rugby classed it as a great campaign. It’s the Scots that get on my nerves - giving it Billy big b******s when they win the Calcutta Cup only to then be awful in most of the other games. You’d think they’d be embarrassed at no GS or Triple Crown since 1990 and no Championship since 1999. They’ve literally got nothing to crow about, just a bunch of perennial chokers and losers. The Welsh are similar to the Scots in some ways but I find it easier to cop it from them because they have a had a lot of success in the 6N era with multiple Slams and Championships - not to mention going very close to making 2 RWC finals.

So each home nation’s greatest rugby achievement in the 6N era:
England - 2003 RWC
Ireland - 2022 Series win in NZ
Wales - 2 RWC semi-finals + multiple 6N titles.
Scotland - Winning a few Calcutta Cups (whilst still having a comfortably inferior H2H record in the 6N era).

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

France with Dupont back and extra motivation for both the England and Ireland games whilst being at home look odds on to me, I'll back them for the GS too.

England 4 easy enough wins and palatable if disappointing loss to France.

Ireland defend home court but don't really fire a shot away to England and France.

Scotland to be mostly uncompetitive against the top half and make the Italy game more difficult than needs be.

Wales and Italy will play each other and one of them will probably win.

Haven't strayed too much from this after the European fixtures. Scotland might have a bit more about them, if they don't they should get Smith in over Townsend ASAP, they have a gem there.

If home/away was reversed between England and France I'd switch them. Similar for Scotland and Ireland but I'll need to see Scotland beat Ireland before I'd ever predict it at this stage, it'll happen again eventually.

 

[OllyM97]

Haven't strayed too much from this after the European fixtures. Scotland might have a bit more about them, if they don't they should get Smith in over Townsend ASAP, they have a gem there.

If home/away was reversed between England and France I'd switch them. Similar for Scotland and Ireland but I'll need to see Scotland beat Ireland before I'd ever predict it at this stage, it'll happen again eventually.

Think our season all comes down to the Murrayfield game. Win that and I think the Grand Slam bandwagon could be unstoppable, lose in Scotland and suddenly you’re probably looking at, at best, a 3 win Championship. I would actually be backing us for a Slam if I was putting money on it.

 

[Toulousain ex French fan]

Penaud Alldritt Fickou said to be dropped for 6N

 

[OllyM97]

Penaud Alldritt Fickou said to be dropped for 6N

.

 

[Geordie]

England to win the GS

 

[Toulousain ex French fan]

France or England
Ireland
Scotland
Italy
Wales

Gros Marchand Montagne
Woki Flament
Ollivon Guillard Boudehent
Dupont Jalibert
Moefana Depoortere
LBB Ramos Penaud

Bench: Mauvaka Erdoccio Atonio Meafou Cros Jelonch Jegou Couilloud

Injury crisis at SH: Lucu and Le Garrec are out. Ntamack is injured should be back vs Wales

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Injury crisis at SH: Lucu and Le Garrec are out. Ntamack is injured should be back vs Wales

Is that France down to 3 potential bench options who'd make the 23 of the other five nations? I'd probably only take JGP ahead of Serin among 9s in the competition and he hasn't played for France in over two years!

Think our season all comes down to the Murrayfield game. Win that and I think the Grand Slam bandwagon could be unstoppable, lose in Scotland and suddenly you’re probably looking at, at best, a 3 win Championship. I would actually be backing us for a Slam if I was putting money on it.

You'll beat Scotland, you have a pack. Ireland is a potential but unlikely trap game, third game in three weeks playing in a row, Ireland have a 9 day turnaround between France away and Italy at home beforehand and injured players set to steadily trickle back in. But we're building back up to playing top class sides and I think that'll be too early.

France should be a GS shootout. France, also with their tails up and at home in front of a manic crowd seems a step too far for most, it took the world champions and a some good luck to do it last time they were at their best. I don't think England are their yet (and any fans who see all rugby as preparation for the next WC, they don't want to be).

Now if France carry their AI form into the championship, it's England's to lose but they've been a different beast in the 6n compared to test matches since their resurgence a few years ago.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Penaud Alldritt Fickou said to be dropped for 6N

It’s not like they don’t have strength in depth, but wow.

 

[Toulousain ex French fan]

https://www.rugbyrama.fr/2026/01/21...-fabien-galthie-pour-preparer-le-13175154.php

List is out. So are Penaud Alldritt Fickou!
Great to see Tatafou back. When fit he is a solution at TH.
First call for Nouchi, Fischer, Temo Matiu in the backrow.

Surprise calls at 10 for Ugo Seunes who has been excellent for Racing and Aaron Grandidier, Gaël Dréan, Grégoire Arfeuil

 

[TRF_Olyy]

https://www.rugbyrama.fr/2026/01/21...-fabien-galthie-pour-preparer-le-13175154.php

List is out. So are Penaud Alldritt Fickou!
Great to see Tatafou back. When fit he is a solution at TH.
First call for Nouchi, Fischer, Temo Matiu in the backrow.

Surprise calls at 10 for Ugo Seunes who has been excellent for Racing

Do you think that's Penaud done at international level, or are they seeing how they do without him for the 6N?
Still one of the absolute best wingers in the world IMO

Same with Fickou - he's always seemed like such an important player in that backline

 

[Toulousain ex French fan]

No way. Damien is too good. I think Galthié wants to try other options with Attissogbe and Dréan, but I’m not sure Ireland is the game for it. Penaud was dropped for Italy last year but came back. I don’t think he’s been dropped for the entire 6N.

Fickou has done his time. Fantastic player but the new generation of centres is here and the centre combo picks itself. Good depth here. All are under 25…

 

[big ginger 8]

Penaud's wife is due soon apparently. Wonder of he'll join up later?

 

[big ginger 8]

Ireland Squad – 2026 Guinness Men’s Six Nations:
(Club/Province/Test Caps)

Forwards (20):

Tom Ahern (Shannon/Munster)(2)
Finlay Bealham (Corinthians/Connacht)(54)
Tadhg Beirne (Lansdowne/Munster)(65)
Jack Boyle (UCD/Leinster)(4)
Thomas Clarkson (Blackrock College/Leinster)(10)
Jack Conan (Old Belvedere/Leinster)(55)
Caelan Doris (St. Mary’s College/Leinster)(55)(captain)
Edwin Edogbo (Cobh Pirates/Munster)*
Tadhg Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster)(82)
Rónan Kelleher (Lansdowne/Leinster)(43)
Jeremy Loughman (Garryowen/Munster)(5)
Joe McCarthy (Dublin University/Leinster)(19)
Michael Milne (UCD/Munster)(2)
Tom O’Toole (Ballynahinch/Ulster)(17)
Cian Prendergast (UCD/Connacht)(8)
James Ryan (UCD/Leinster)(76)
Dan Sheehan (Lansdowne/Leinster)(35)
Tom Stewart (Ballynahinch/Ulster)(4)
Nick Timoney (Queen’s University/Ulster)(6)
Josh van der Flier (UCD/Leinster)(75)

Backs (17):

Bundee Aki (Galwegians/Connacht)(68)
Robert Baloucoune (Enniskillen/Ulster)(4)
Harry Byrne (Lansdowne/Leinster)(4)
Craig Casey (Shannon/Munster)(24)
Jack Crowley (Cork Constitution/Munster)(30)
Nathan Doak (Banbridge/Ulster)*
Tom Farrell (Lansdowne/Munster)(2)
Ciaran Frawley (UCD/Leinster)(9)
Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster)(46)
Hugo Keenan (UCD/Leinster)(46)
James Lowe (Leinster)(43)
Stuart McCloskey (Bangor/Ulster)(23)
Tommy O’Brien (Blackrock College/Leinster)(6)
Jamie Osborne (Naas/Leinster)(10)
Sam Prendergast (Lansdowne/Leinster)(13)
Garry Ringrose (UCD/Leinster)(69)
Jacob Stockdale (Lurgan/Ulster)(40)

*Denotes uncapped

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Sam Prendergast (Lansdowne/Leinster)(13)

The Wooden Spoon is on, lads!