2012 ANZAC Test

Discussion in 'NRL / Southern Hemisphere' started by LittleGuy, Apr 17, 2012.

  1. LittleGuy

    LittleGuy Senior Member

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    The much anticipated mid-season 2012 ANZAC test is scheduled for this weekend and will be played at Eden Park in Auckland. The series is 11-1 in Australia's favour although the last two matches have been very close and the previous NZ win was in Auckland in 1998.

    Perhaps the Kiwis can turn the upset again on home soil, there has been some controversy with James Tamou being selected by the Roos, as well news of Australia keeping a "file" of supposed Kiwi dirty play is adding to the tensions. Hopefully this will lead to a high intensity game.

    Here are your lineups.

    Australian Kangaroos:

    Starters: Billy Slater, Darius Boyd, Greg Inglis, Justin Hodges, Akuila Uate, Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk, Paul Gallen (vc), Cameron Smith (c), David Shillington, David Taylor, Sam Thaiday, Luke Lewis.

    Interchange: Interchange: Daly Cherry-Evans, Ben Hannant, James Tamou, Anthony Watmough. 18th man: Matt Gillett.

    New Zealand Kiwis:

    Gerard Beale, Adam Blair, Jesse Bromwich, Nathan Fien, Alex Glenn, Josh Hoffman, Shaun Johnson, Shaun Kenny-Dowell, Issac Luke, Simon Mannering, Ben Matulino, Benji Marshall, Sam McKendry, Jason Nightingale, Jarad Warea-Hargraves, Frank Pritchard, Jeremy Smith, Jason Taumalolo, Manu Vatuvei
     
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  3. TRF_melon

    TRF_melon is quite ravishing

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    I think QLD...ahem, i mean...uhhh..Australia will rip NZs' heads off and s*** down their throats.
     
  4. admartian

    admartian Senior Member

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    I see it going down a couple of ways:

    - Kangaroos start off with 8 tries in the first 20 minutes and it's game over. (Probability: 70%)
    - It's a very close game at half time, probably 14-10 at halftime. Then after the half, with about 10-15mins to go, the Kiwis whilst in possession (in a good position to win the game) at the Kangaroos line, will absolutely rubbish it; or on defence will commit a stupid and absolutely un-necessary penalty. Cue momentum shift and Australia will end up scoring 5 tries to end the game. (Probability: 85-95%)
    - The Kiwis win after a lucky break in play in the last ~5 or so minutes. (Probability: 55%)

    Either way, I mostly see the Aussies winning this one.
     
  5. TRF_melon

    TRF_melon is quite ravishing

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    Yeah I can only really see Australia winning this one. It always seems to be the way for the first test of the year, then the Kiwis will regroup and play well at the end of the year.

    Wooo hell yeah, there's enough possibility for 2 and a half games!:lol:
     
  6. LittleGuy

    LittleGuy Senior Member

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    Yeah I saw that and was confused, it's not a best of three....
     
  7. Amobokoboko

    Amobokoboko Waikato Junglist

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    Idd, Kangaroos to win it, but the Kiwi's will give them a good game.
    Why isn't Moimoi in the squad?
     
  8. admartian

    admartian Senior Member

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    lol sorry, should've made myself clear.

    Either any of those three were my predictions of what would happen in the game.

    Not what will happen if there were three games.

    Come on guys! Comprehension! :p :lol:
     
  9. TRF_melon

    TRF_melon is quite ravishing

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    He's fat and lazy!
     
  10. LittleGuy

    LittleGuy Senior Member

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    There is only 100% in a game though so your probabilities should add up to something at the very least close to this.

    For example I say Australia has a 75-80% chance of winning therefore New Zealand has a 20-25% chance of winning.
     
  11. admartian

    admartian Senior Member

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    *sigh* nevermind. I cbf. explaining it. TBh, shouldn't have put the priobability bits in there if I'd known the internet logic nazis would turn up.
    ^_^

    I was basically trying to say, that out of the 3 ways I see this game possibly going down, only one of them is NZ winning - and only barely at that!

    IS THAT OK WITH YOU SIR!? :rolleyes: :lol:
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2012
  12. LittleGuy

    LittleGuy Senior Member

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    Yes, and don't worry me and Melon were just having a bit of a **** take, I actually liked your scenarios as well.
     
  13. admartian

    admartian Senior Member

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    No worries.


    Not a lot of confidence in the kiwis. How many times have we seen a side and think - "yeah maybe this is the side to finalyl do it". Only to fall, and fall badly.

    Johnson/Marshall combo looks lethal though.
     
  14. TRF_melon

    TRF_melon is quite ravishing

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    Haha love it! Finally a bit of spice around here!
     
  15. admartian

    admartian Senior Member

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    Anyone care to have a yellow card/sin bin wager? I say 4.
     
  16. TRF_melon

    TRF_melon is quite ravishing

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    Care to elaborate?

    Unfortunately I'm obscenely ignorant.
     
  17. admartian

    admartian Senior Member

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    ..A wager on how many sin-bins (i.e. when player(s) has committed a foul or offence that warrants the referee to send said player(s) to the sideline for ten minutes) occur during aforementioned match.

    In such a wager, the aim is to correctly estimate or as accurately as possible, the frequency of such decisions by the referee.

    This total should be inclusive of both teams' tally at the end of the game, and contains no tangible prize or trophy - apart form the pride you take for correctly guesstimating such a value.

    Comprende? :)
     
  18. TRF Mr Fish

    TRF Mr Fish Your Piscine Overlord

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    Only in league :rolleyes:
     
  19. TRF_melon

    TRF_melon is quite ravishing

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    Now I'm picking up what you're putting down. Thank you for your comprehensive explanation. You are a true gentleman. I think I'd be well and truly ****ed if I had to do without your seemingly superior intelligence from here on in.

    I thought you were referring to something else, but the obviousness of it is a tad embarrassing...the meaning was staring me right in the face! :lol:

    I counter your wager with.....

    [​IMG]
     
  20. admartian

    admartian Senior Member

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    I tip my top-hat to you, and raise my monocle and pocket watch as a sign of agreement. :lol:


    Wait, 0?I can see some overzealous guys wanting to take Tamou's head off getting binned.

    In a test like this, I think 1 is the minimum.
     
  21. TRF_melon

    TRF_melon is quite ravishing

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    I see where you're coming from, however the international rules are always more relaxed and despite any tough talk they always seem to behave more nowadays. Rather than any stupid hits in regular play, I think there'll be niggling in back play and a bit little bit of fisty-cuffs but there never really seems to be any discipline handed out unless of course it's a full on bash-a-thon.

    I stand with zero!

    ....Now I have this feeling there'll be an all-in after a huge hit and the two initial players involved will be given time in the bin....

    The seed of doubt has been sewn.
     
    Last edited: Apr 19, 2012
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