[2014 EOYT] Ireland vs South Africa

[Big Ewis]

Location: Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland
Ref: Romain Poite (France)
Date: November 8th 2014
​

 

[big ginger 8]

So based of reports this morning I'm going to do the worst case scenario team, so I don't feel as bad if it comes to pass and feel good if we're able to play anyone better.

1. McGrath (2nd choice should be up to the task but can't carry like Healy)
2. Cronin (2nd choice very mobile not as good as Best anyway)
3. Ah You (4/5th choice, did not seem fit enough for international rugby during the summer)
4. Toner (1rst choice)
5. O'Connell (1rst choice, captain)
6. O'Mahony/Ruddock (1rst choice)
7. Henry (2nd choice, again able replacement but he's no SO'B)
8. Heaslip (1rst choice)
9. Murray (1rst choice)
10. Keatley (2-5th choice depending on who you ask, 1rst cap since 2009, some worries still about his temperment)
11. Zebo (2-5th choice, should be grand)
12. D'arcy (1rst choice)
13. Henshaw (1rst choice, 2nd ever start)
14. Bowe (1rst choice)
15. Payne (2nd choice, international debut)

16. Richardt Strauss (3/4th choice just back playing properly this season but should be fine)
17. Kilcoyne (3/4th choice, some worries about his scrummaging)
18. Archer (5/6th choice, has improved but wasn't at a high level originally)
19. Foley (2-5th choice will be fine)
20. Ruddock/PO'M (2nd choice be grand)
21. Reddan (2/3rd choice, grand)
22. Madigan (2-5th choice, hasn't played at 10 this year yet)
23. Gilroy (eh?, was poor last year but looks to be in good form again this season.)

 

[Jockstap]

So based of reports this morning I'm going to do the worst case scenario team, so I don't feel as bad if it comes to pass and feel good if we're able to play anyone better.

1. McGrath (2nd choice should be up to the task but can't carry like Healy)
2. Cronin (2nd choice very mobile not as good as Best anyway)
3. Ah You (4/5th choice, did not seem fit enough for international rugby during the summer)
4. Toner (1rst choice)
5. O'Connell (1rst choice, captain)
6. O'Mahony/Ruddock (1rst choice)
7. Henry (2nd choice, again able replacement but he's no SO'B)
8. Heaslip (1rst choice)
9. Murray (1rst choice)
10. Keatley (2-5th choice depending on who you ask, 1rst cap since 2009, some worries still about his temperment)
11. Zebo (2-5th choice, should be grand)
12. D'arcy (1rst choice)
13. Henshaw (1rst choice, 2nd ever start)
14. Bowe (1rst choice)
15. Payne (2nd choice, international debut)

16. Richardt Strauss (3/4th choice just back playing properly this season but should be fine)
17. Kilcoyne (3/4th choice, some worries about his scrummaging)
18. Archer (5/6th choice, has improved but wasn't at a high level originally)
19. Foley (2-5th choice will be fine)
20. Ruddock/PO'M (2nd choice be grand)
21. Reddan (2/3rd choice, grand)
22. Madigan (2-5th choice, hasn't played at 10 this year yet)
23. Gilroy (eh?, was poor last year but looks to be in good form again this season.)

POM is easily first choice over Ruddock, ditto Trimble over Bowe. I haven't been able to find any info on the Sexton situation, any news?

 

[big ginger 8]

POM is easily first choice over Ruddock, ditto Trimble over Bowe. I haven't been able to find any info on the Sexton situation, any news?

I was kind of doing first choice pair of wings.

Given the situation I think Ruddock could start in a horses for courses situation, I won't exactly be disappointed if PO'M starts.

All I've heard is that Sexton gave Goosen a conversion in the 37th minute because he couldn't kick and didn't come out after the break. Hopefully no new is good news.

This whole tighthead situation is even more worrying with Poite reffing.

 

[munstermuffin]

Have heard Jack McGrath is carrying arm injury and Killer Kilcoyne will start.
And I don't think people realise how physical POM is regards horses for courses. I think anything Ruddock can do POM can do just as well. And he offers more for his work in lineout and on the floor.

 

[big ginger 8]

Have heard Jack McGrath is carrying arm injury and Killer Kilcoyne will start.
And I don't think people realise how physical POM is regards horses for courses. I think anything Ruddock can do POM can do just as well. And he offers more for his work in lineout and on the floor.

Jack's been carrying it for a good while so hopefully there's no need for him to sit out. Buckley next in line I'd say, possibly Warwick.

PO'M can't carry as well close in and I don't think that's really debateable, for as well as he's done he stil hasn't hit double figures in tackling for Ireland yet. As I say I really don't mind which one starts.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

So based of reports this morning I'm going to do the worst case scenario team, so I don't feel as bad if it comes to pass and feel good if we're able to play anyone better.

1. McGrath (2nd choice should be up to the task but can't carry like Healy)
2. Cronin (2nd choice very mobile not as good as Best anyway)
3. Ah You (4/5th choice, did not seem fit enough for international rugby during the summer)
4. Toner (1rst choice)
5. O'Connell (1rst choice, captain)
6. O'Mahony/Ruddock (1rst choice)
7. Henry (2nd choice, again able replacement but he's no SO'B)
8. Heaslip (1rst choice)
9. Murray (1rst choice)
10. Keatley (2-5th choice depending on who you ask, 1rst cap since 2009, some worries still about his temperment)
11. Zebo (2-5th choice, should be grand)
12. D'arcy (1rst choice)
13. Henshaw (1rst choice, 2nd ever start)
14. Bowe (1rst choice)
15. Payne (2nd choice, international debut)

16. Richardt Strauss (3/4th choice just back playing properly this season but should be fine)
17. Kilcoyne (3/4th choice, some worries about his scrummaging)
18. Archer (5/6th choice, has improved but wasn't at a high level originally)
19. Foley (2-5th choice will be fine)
20. Ruddock/PO'M (2nd choice be grand)
21. Reddan (2/3rd choice, grand)
22. Madigan (2-5th choice, hasn't played at 10 this year yet)
23. Gilroy (eh?, was poor last year but looks to be in good form again this season.)

1st* I don't know why but that really annoyed me. Don't let it happen again kid!

 

[Groundhog]

1st* I don't know why but that really annoyed me. Don't let it happen again kid!

Yeah what the **** was that? Screw that guy.
I'd back O'Mahony to start over Ruddock BG8. I know you're not knocking him by any means but I disagree with your argument you stated in I think the AI's thread that we should start with the big carrier in Ruddock and then unleash the techincal player who excels at the breakdown late on. I think it makes more sense to start with the guy that can win us early posession and kickable chances early on and then unleash the big carrier against tired legs.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Yeah what the **** was that? Screw that guy.
I'd back O'Mahony to start over Ruddock BG8. I know you're not knocking him by any means but I disagree with your argument you stated in I think the AI's thread that we should start with the big carrier in Ruddock and then unleash the techincal player who excels at the breakdown late on. I think it makes more sense to start with the guy that can win us early posession and kickable chances early on and then unleash the big carrier against tired legs.

So unDave-like.

I want PO'M too, no point trying to beat the Saffas physically because it simply won't happen!

 

[Groundhog]

So unDave-like.

I want PO'M too, no point trying to beat the Saffas physically because it simply won't happen!

I dunno, I reckon they'll have no answer for Dave 'the silencer' Foley. Especially if he has a shank in his sock.

Meanwhile at the opposite end of the spectrum O'Mahony can distract them with his famous passionate kisses and flirting.

Seriously, what a cute couple those dudes would make.

 

[Big Ewis]

Ireland let this fixture slip from just a couple of points the last two times. This is the most competitive they've been out of those last 3 times though and South Africa have generally been on top form as of 2014, with the occasional scare...should be a fantastic one.

 

[big ginger 8]

Yeah what the **** was that? Screw that guy.
I'd back O'Mahony to start over Ruddock BG8. I know you're not knocking him by any means but I disagree with your argument you stated in I think the AI's thread that we should start with the big carrier in Ruddock and then unleash the techincal player who excels at the breakdown late on. I think it makes more sense to start with the guy that can win us early posession and kickable chances early on and then unleash the big carrier against tired legs.

The reason I want the carrier is because you need at least one and who else is going to do it? Without Healy and O'Brien the only forward from our usual starting team you may potentially give regular go forward close in and before the last two European games you'd have had a lot of people saying he can't either.

 

[munstermuffin]

Agree regards POM yet to make double figures in tackles but in those games he's been 1 of our best players by miles and while I huge fan of Ruddock I can't remember him reaching double figures tackles in much big games and carrying more dynamic than POM. Just don't see what he will bring that is so stand out.
If you look at his stats vs Wasps, Castres Munster and Connacht. The stats aren't impressive and he actually has worst metres per carry than POM. Yes he makes more tackles but defensively Ireland aren't in trouble. And as I said I'm fan ofRuddock but its it of myth he's much bigger carrier than POM.

 

[SomeOke]

Sorry I have very little knowledge of the North, why is Ireland playing a mostly second string team? Is it injuries?

If this is the case it's incredibly frustrating, it seems like we never get any decent clashes with the north, it's always quite a bit less than a full strength side for one reason or another. Was looking forward to this match especially considering Ireland were six nations winners.

 

[Groundhog]

Sorry I have very little knowledge of the North, why is Ireland playing a mostly second string team? Is it injuries?

If this is the case it's incredibly frustrating, it seems like we never get any decent clashes with the north, it's always quite a bit less than a full strength side for one reason or another. Was looking forward to this match especially considering Ireland were six nations winners.

Yeah we're having a bit of a crisis here at the moment. The main issues are our complete lack of depth at Tight Head (with the prospect of playing a Kiwi who is totally unproven beyond the PRO 12) and the serious drop off in quality caused by the loss of our legitimately class players like Healy, O'Brien and now possibly Sexton. Leaves us in a sticky situation in the scrum at the very least, and there will be a baptism of fire for a few lads in the backs I'd imagine.

 

[profitius]

So POM should be dropped. Last year McLoughlin should be ahead of him, this year its Ruddock. No way will he not be selected if he is fit.

Sorry I have very little knowledge of the North, why is Ireland playing a mostly second string team? Is it injuries?

If this is the case it's incredibly frustrating, it seems like we never get any decent clashes with the north, it's always quite a bit less than a full strength side for one reason or another. Was looking forward to this match especially considering Ireland were six nations winners.

It'll be mainly the first team players. Problem is we're hit hard in certain areas with clusters of injuries. First 3 choice right heads might be out for example. O'Brien and Healy are also 2 important players for carrying the ball and I'd say the bench will be weakened instead of being a strength.

It should still be a competitive game for the most part. Ireland have better quality than Argentina, who ran the Books close. The team looks confident and playing well under Schmidt.

The season in Europe is badly structured so the teams only peak for the 6 nations most years.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Is POM really being questioned as a starter?
I mean the man's a grade-A jeb end but he is an outstanding player.

 

[SomeOke]

I'm still really excited for the game regardless, it would be nice to play a full strength side to really get an idea of the level of the two sides.
Not that I'm taking Ireland for granted! Should be a great match, I'm not 100% sure about what our injury concerns would be, as far as I know Etzebeth is definitely out which means our situation at lock will be quite stretched, we may well see the old staple of Matfield and Botha start with the former being a definite and the latter perhaps not as certain with the possibility of Lood de Jager starting. The other area of concern is our loose trio, Louw is definitely out which is quite the loss considering he is the only real fetcher we have in the set-up at the moment, as for Willem Alberts I believe he may be fit but am unsure.

That said I don't really think our loose trio will suffer that much, Vermulen has been our best player and has proven he can provide fetching ability as well as physicality and Burger and Coetzee have been strong recently, coupled with the fact that there are a few debutantes who I would love to see get a run in Carr and Kriel. All in all the only real concern for me is in our locks and more broadly in our entire tight five who haven't been quite up to scratch recently. It will be interesting to see how our scrum turns up as we had mixed results in that department this rugby championship.

Exciting things are happening in our back line as well particularly if our young fly-halves can continue to develop. I'm not supremely confident but it's hard to make comments without seeing the final squad. I would expect a starting line-up of:

1. Mtawarira
2. A Straus /B du plessis
3. J du Plessis
4. Matfield
5. Botha/de Jager
6. Coetzee
7. Burger/Mahoje
8. Vermulen
9. Hougard (possible Pienaar, hopefully not)
10. Pollard
11. Habana
12. de Villiers
13. Serfontein
14. Hendricks
15. Willie du Plessis

16. A Straus /B du plessis
17. Nkayane/Steenkamp
18. Marcel van der Merve
19. Both/de Jager
20. Burger/Mahoje
21. Reinach/Pienaar
22. Lambie
23. JP Pietersen (Maybe, could be any number of people including another forward)

It will come down to whether our forwards can control the breakdown and set-piece effectively and whether Pollard and Willie le Roux fire. Sounds like an other simplification but it's hard to get specific without knowing Irelands strengths.

 

[Peat]

Is POM really being questioned as a starter?
I mean the man's a grade-A jeb end but he is an outstanding player.

Yes and imo rightly so.

There is a serious balance issue here. POM-Henry-Heaslip is a quality unit but it is unbalanced. It lacks power. All of the guys can carry, but none of them are specialists. The issue is amplified by the fact that the last sentence basically describes the Irish pack to a man when Healy is injured. There is a strong logic to bringing in any Irish players who really excel as carriers and in those individual physical contests. There are only two guys available who could really be said to do that. There's Sean Cronin, who's more of a midfield carrier and lacks Best's reliability and leadership, and there's Rhys Ruddock. Ruddock plays six. If you were to introduce him, POM is the obvious guy to lose out. Ruddock's a good lineout guy, so you don't lose that much, and while POM is a very good jackal and would be missed there, the Irish pack is filled to the brim with good jackals. There's a strong argument that balance is better served with Ruddock than POM.

There are further arguments. O'Mahony was very good in the Six Nations in the more open games but less effective against England when the game was more in the tight. His game has been about getting over the ball and that's just very difficult when the attack doesn't open up as much. There's no prizes for guessing what the South Africans will do. POM brings a lot of athleticism and could make a big impact when the game opens up due to tiring legs. Granted, so could Ruddock's power carrying, but POM's a useful carrier himself if given space. Big man for tight spaces, quick guy for open spaces.

I don't think Schmidt's going to go that way. POM is more experienced and more of a leader, and having a settled back-row unit is a massive luxury of a sorts for him given that just about every other unit is disintegrating around his ears. But it wouldn't surprise me.

There's also the option of moving POM to 7, playing Ruddock at 6 and putting Henry on the bench. I think I'll leave evaluation of that as an idea to a non-Ulster fan though.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Sorry I have very little knowledge of the North, why is Ireland playing a mostly second string team? Is it injuries?

If this is the case it's incredibly frustrating, it seems like we never get any decent clashes with the north, it's always quite a bit less than a full strength side for one reason or another. Was looking forward to this match especially considering Ireland were six nations winners.

I'm still really excited for the game regardless, it would be nice to play a full strength side to really get an idea of the level of the two sides.
Not that I'm taking Ireland for granted! Should be a great match, I'm not 100% sure about what our injury concerns would be, as far as I know Etzebeth is definitely out which means our situation at lock will be quite stretched, we may well see the old staple of Matfield and Botha start with the former being a definite and the latter perhaps not as certain with the possibility of Lood de Jager starting. The other area of concern is our loose trio, Louw is definitely out which is quite the loss considering he is the only real fetcher we have in the set-up at the moment, as for Willem Alberts I believe he may be fit but am unsure.

That said I don't really think our loose trio will suffer that much, Vermulen has been our best player and has proven he can provide fetching ability as well as physicality and Burger and Coetzee have been strong recently, coupled with the fact that there are a few debutantes who I would love to see get a run in Carr and Kriel. All in all the only real concern for me is in our locks and more broadly in our entire tight five who haven't been quite up to scratch recently. It will be interesting to see how our scrum turns up as we had mixed results in that department this rugby championship.

Exciting things are happening in our back line as well particularly if our young fly-halves can continue to develop. I'm not supremely confident but it's hard to make comments without seeing the final squad. I would expect a starting line-up of:

1. Mtawarira
2. B du Plessis
3. J du Plessis
4. Matfield
5. Etzebeth
6. Coetzee
7. Burger/Mohoje
8. Vermeulen
9. Hougard (possible Pienaar, hopefully not)
10. Pollard
11. Habana
12. de Villiers
13. Serfontein
14. Hendricks
15. Willie le Roux

16. A Strauss
17. Nkayane/Steenkamp
18. Marcel van der Merve is injured, look for Julian Redelinghuys to make his debut or Nyakane or Oosthuizen to be played out of position again
19. Botha/de Jager
20. Burger/Mohoje
21. Reinach/Pienaar
22. Lambie
23. JP Pietersen (Maybe, could be any number of people including another forward)

It will come down to whether our forwards can control the breakdown and set-piece effectively and whether Pollard and Willie le Roux fire. Sounds like an other simplification but it's hard to get specific without knowing Irelands strengths.

Eben should be avaiable:

Eben Etzebeth stayed behind in South Africa and will join the squad on Tuesday following a family bereavement, while there will be more clarity on Ruan Pienaar's fitness situation on Monday.
"I know Eben will slot back in seamlessly as he's been with us for the last two weeks' preparation in South Africa – our thoughts and prayers are with him and his family," said Springbok coach Heyneke Meyer.

Tight head, unfortunately with Malherbe and MvdM both out it'll be Jannie with either Redelinghuys or Oosthuizen making a return on the bench. I'd have prefered Dreyer TBH but Redelinghuys should do fine. At loose forward, we're still missing Alberts but the replcement will be fine whether it's Burger, Mohoje or the form players in Kriel or Carr. I'd love to see Carr and Kriel get time in green but we'll probably have to wait for Italy for them to get a chance and force HM's hand. Coetzee has done well in Francois Louw's stead and there is no reason to look elsewhere though I can see either Burger or Mohoje start and the one losing out and being leapfrogged to the bench by Kriel who is a better bench option.

In the 2nd row it'll be Matfield and Etzebeth while we wait for PSdT's return. Matfield has done surprisingly well so I won't be complaining about his continued inclusion anymore. Etzebeth has done as well as one can expect from someone who hasn't played rugby for a year and he was improving every game though still a ways away from 2013 Etzebeth.

Bismarck will start up North I am sure, especially since we lack that hard edge with Matfield in and no Alberts and Louw in the backrow.

I can't see the backline change at this stage. I don't think it's our best midfield but JdV is a good captain and Serfontein has been improving at 13 every game. HM will probably only look to make changes in the last two games. I just hope Le Roux gets some form of consistency to his game; he has been off it big time this year.

I'll wait for a weather forecast before putting ni my prediction for a score.