[2014 EOYT] Scotland vs New Zealand

[Mikel92]

Personally I don't feel as though a halfback has to do anything fancy. No one is as good as Aaron Smith right now, I think we all understand that. But I would like to see the ball passed out faster than what the defense has a chance to reset. It's a really pet pev when half backs muck around and completely halt momentum. It's one thing to do that close to the line and have 'patience' but not all the time. I think I may have started Perenara a few more times during the RC with a strong forward pack so he could get that experience.

I wouldn't panic. It was one game with a totally new-look forward pack who haven't played together as a collective before, including a debutant. The 'platform' was always going to be a bit messy. However, if nothing improves and halfback gets to crisis point then there's been a bloke playing for Tasman this year. May have heard of him...Jimmy Cowan.

 

[Larksea]

Personally I don't feel as though a halfback has to do anything fancy. No one is as good as Aaron Smith right now, I think we all understand that. But I would like to see the ball passed out faster than what the defense has a chance to reset. It's a really pet pev when half backs muck around and completely halt momentum. It's one thing to do that close to the line and have 'patience' but not all the time. I think I may have started Perenara a few more times during the RC with a strong forward pack so he could get that experience.

I wouldn't panic. It was one game with a totally new-look forward pack who haven't played together as a collective before, including a debutant. The 'platform' was always going to be a bit messy. However, if nothing improves and halfback gets to crisis point then there's been a bloke playing for Tasman this year. May have heard of him...Jimmy Cowan.

Perenara's problem was not the forward pack.

let me rephrase that, his problem was not the time between the ball going to ground and the ball being available. It was the time between the ball being available and him passing the ball. It's his time.

And I believe fast all creates fast ball, if a 9 can create fast ball by clearing quickly then it makes it easier for his forwards to create more fast ball.

And I dont think you can overestimate the impact it has. The difference between the AB's back line with Cowan & Weepu there compared to now with Aaron Smith there is staggering. This Scottish game for me was a look back into the past when we had Cowan & Weepu.

Without a doubt IMO Pulu is the best backup for Smith right now. In fact I think hes good enough to start giving him 15-20min rather than just keeping him on the bench as injury cover and letting him get off for a token few min to get a cap.

TJP and TKB dont seem to be able to play their natural game for the All Blacks yet. Pulu seems more willing and is easily the faster of the 3 right now.

 

[Darwin]

Personally I don't feel as though a halfback has to do anything fancy. No one is as good as Aaron Smith right now, I think we all understand that. But I would like to see the ball passed out faster than what the defense has a chance to reset. It's a really pet pev when half backs muck around and completely halt momentum. It's one thing to do that close to the line and have 'patience' but not all the time. I think I may have started Perenara a few more times during the RC with a strong forward pack so he could get that experience.

I wouldn't panic. It was one game with a totally new-look forward pack who haven't played together as a collective before, including a debutant. The 'platform' was always going to be a bit messy. However, if nothing improves and halfback gets to crisis point then there's been a bloke playing for Tasman this year. May have heard of him...Jimmy Cowan.

As someone who has watched a lot of Jimmy Cowan I feel if we need to resort to him we are in trouble. Big trouble. If we are worried about slow clerances from Perenara I don't believe Cowan is the solution - he clears the ball a lot slower than Perenara, and his passing isn't great either. If we are looking for an experienced option I feel Ellis would be by far the better option. He's a much better all round player than Cowan, and though like Cowan his pass isn't great at least he gets to the breakdown quickly and doesn't tend to muck around once the ball is available. He's been playing vastly better rugby these last 3 years than he was when he was in the ABs too...

Perenara's problem was not the forward pack.

let me rephrase that, his problem was not the time between the ball going to ground and the ball being available. It was the time between the ball being available and him passing the ball. It's his time.

And I believe fast all creates fast ball, if a 9 can create fast ball by clearing quickly then it makes it easier for his forwards to create more fast ball.

And I dont think you can overestimate the impact it has. The difference between the AB's back line with Cowan & Weepu there compared to now with Aaron Smith there is staggering. This Scottish game for me was a look back into the past when we had Cowan & Weepu.

Without a doubt IMO Pulu is the best backup for Smith right now. In fact I think hes good enough to start giving him 15-20min rather than just keeping him on the bench as injury cover and letting him get off for a token few min to get a cap.

TJP and TKB dont seem to be able to play their natural game for the All Blacks yet. Pulu seems more willing and is easily the faster of the 3 right now.

If Pulu is the answer the ABs selectors are probably asking the wrong question. He has looked woefully out of his depth at test level so far. His option taking was very poor versus USA, and he seemed obsessed with running the ball himself (indeed he always seems a bit obsessed with this!). His first pass when he came on versus Scotland was fired along the ground, and could has cost the ABs. There is no doubt he has talent - he's a dangerous runner, a physical defender, and can pass the ball well (though can be a bit erratic). I have seen nothing to suggest his decision making is good enough at Super Rugby level, let alone test level. I think he could develop into a quality test 9, but he needs a few more years at Super Rugby in my opinon (as Mr Fish suggested he may well find himself on the bench behind Weber at the Chiefs this year too...).

 

[Larksea]

If Pulu is the answer the ABs selectors are probably asking the wrong question. He has looked woefully out of his depth at test level so far. His option taking was very poor versus USA, and he seemed obsessed with running the ball himself (indeed he always seems a bit obsessed with this!). His first pass when he came on versus Scotland was fired along the ground, and could has cost the ABs. There is no doubt he has talent - he's a dangerous runner, a physical defender, and can pass the ball well (though can be a bit erratic). I have seen nothing to suggest his decision making is good enough at Super Rugby level, let alone test level. I think he could develop into a quality test 9, but he needs a few more years at Super Rugby in my opinion (as Mr Fish suggested he may well find himself on the bench behind Weber at the Chiefs this year too...).

I think your exaggerating a bit, if that was the case he would never have made the All Blacks! Pulu's super performances were starting to Shadow TNW's in the last half of this season and his itm cup for was superb. And he has less than 10min against USA and less than 5min against Scotland.... And IMO running is something a sub 9 should be doing.

Importantly I think his speed and passing is the closest we currently have in NZ to what A Smith is providing. yeah Weber is good and an interesting prospect but he's still very green.

Perenara almost seems like he is afraid of making a mistake or making the wrong decision.

 

[Mikel92]

Darwin, hey I love Ellis for different reasons but as a 'Saders fan I wouldn't trumpet his clearance of the ball (in terms of speed). Some weeks it can be painful to watch.

I'll agree that Pulu's pass is pretty magnificent (it didn't show when he first came on, but it's there). Perenara's problem isn't just the speed, it's also the length of the pass. I feel Pulu is much more comparable to Smith, probably in both regards. I don't think it should be underestimated either. When the pass doesn't have much length on it, guys like Carter have to stand closer (as we saw against Scotland) and the whole backline has to rejig it's positioning. Options for how deep or wide the receiver stands are severely limited.

I wasn't suggesting bring back Cowan tomorrow. Only that he happens to be playing well and if half-back turns into a crisis next year. For whatever reason. Injury, etc. Just saying I'd rather Cowan in a Final if we're injury ravaged than some kid, or someone who's very hesitant.

 

[Darwin]

I think your exaggerating a bit, if that was the case he would never have made the All Blacks! Pulu's super performances were starting to Shadow TNW's in the last half of this season and his itm cup for was superb. And he has less than 10min against USA and less than 5min against Scotland.... And IMO running is something a sub 9 should be doing.

Importantly I think his speed and passing is the closest we currently have in NZ to what A Smith is providing. yeah Weber is good and an interesting prospect but he's still very green.

Perenara almost seems like he is afraid of making a mistake or making the wrong decision.

The fact Pulu has looked out of his depth so far at test level is not really something the AB's selectors could have known for sure before the selected him. He's only played limited minutes, but surely you have to agree he has looked very shaky? He looked good at times for the Chiefs at Super Rugby level, but his error rate was still very high. If we compare the error-rates of the top halfbacks* at Super Rugby level we find the following:

A Smith - 0.021 Turnovers conceded / possession
TJ Perenara - 0.020
A Pulu - 0.0383
T Kerr-Barlow - 0.014
A Ellis - 0.021

Basically Pulu was make twice as many errors as the other top NZ halfbacks (with Kerr-Barlow making the least).

I agree running is an important part of any halfbacks game but Pulu runs the ball far too much in my opinion. If we compare the top NZ halfbacks at Super Rugby level in terms of Run%/Pass%/Kick%:

Smith - Run 7% / Pass 80% / Kick 12%
Perenara - Run 8% / Pass 84% / Kick 8%
Pulu - Run 22% / Pass 69% / Kick 9%
Kerr-Barlow - Run 14% / Pass 77% / Kick 9%
Ellis - Run 11% / Pass 78% / Kick 11%

It is clear that Pulu is running the ball far more than any of the top halfbacks (and I feel Kerr-Barlow was running the ball a bit too much too). If you have a backline like the AB's it is usually a good idea to give them the ball....

Again I think Pulu is a good young player, but I think he is far too raw for test rugby at this stage...

Darwin, hey I love Ellis for different reasons but as a 'Saders fan I wouldn't trumpet his clearance of the ball (in terms of speed). Some weeks it can be painful to watch.

Ellis's slow delivery at times is entirely due to the Crusaders game-plan. When the Crusaders decided to up the pace of the game (near the end of last season) it was noticeable how quickly Ellis acted once the ball became available. It still takes him a very long time to pass the ball once he grabs it ( when he picks the ball up I usually pop into the kitchen grab a cup of coffee and come back out in time to see the ball in Carter / Slade's hands ), but he was acting the moment it became available. Watching him play for Canterbury is recent seasons has been a far better example of his ability to clear the ball immediately - I think it is no coincidence that Canterbury's winning streak ended when he took a season off. I don't for one second believe Ellis could execute the current AB's game-plan (so can see why the selectors don't pick him), but personally I feel he still has plenty to offer at test level.



*All stats from the NZHerald stats centre

 

[nzlizard]

I agree running is an important part of any halfbacks game but Pulu runs the ball far too much in my opinion. If we compare the top NZ halfbacks at Super Rugby level in terms of Run%/Pass%/Kick%:

Smith - Run 7% / Pass 80% / Kick 12%
Perenara - Run 8% / Pass 84% / Kick 8%
Pulu - Run 22% / Pass 69% / Kick 9%
Kerr-Barlow - Run 14% / Pass 77% / Kick 9%
Ellis - Run 11% / Pass 78% / Kick 11%

It is clear that Pulu is running the ball far more than any of the top halfbacks (and I feel Kerr-Barlow was running the ball a bit too much too). If you have a backline like the AB's it is usually a good idea to give them the ball....

Again I think Pulu is a good young player, but I think he is far too raw for test rugby at this stage...

Way to much running from him, there is no way that 1 in 5 touches presents a gap for a halfback to run through or enough broken play ball to attempt it with.

Like you said with the back line we have we need to be getting ball wide not keeping it close, a big part of the AB's success is based on fitness and getting the ball away from opposition forwards and keeping them running is a key part of that.

 

[Mikel92]

Kerr-Barlow makes the least amount of errors of the New Zealand halfbacks? Wouldn't have picked that one.

 

[Darwin]

Kerr-Barlow makes the least amount of errors of the New Zealand halfbacks? Wouldn't have picked that one.

Prior to this season I too would have been very surprised to see that, as it always appeared to me as if he was trying to create far too much himself. However I think he was far more controlled for the Chiefs this season. He still gets a bit overexcited if he gets 15 minutes off the bench - it appears he wants to fit 80 minutes of rugby into whatever time period he is on the field - so I definitely rate him much more highly as a starter rather than a bench option.

 

[turmeric2015]

Pulu is a work in progress. It will be another season or two before he is truly at (All Blacks) test level. If you have watched the progression of his career it should be no surprise that he has been a bit shaky for the ABs. Remember his first few starts for the Chiefs?? And compare his contribution for Counties now vs a couple of years ago.

The guy is immensely talented, no doubt about it, but up top he has a lot to work on - decision making is my biggest concern with him. That kinda stuff takes time though. The raw talent is there, he just needs some work and that will take time. I believe over the next two years he will work his way up the ranks and become the back up to Smith, but until then I don't think we should expect too much from him.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

If Pulu is the answer the ABs selectors are probably asking the wrong question. He has looked woefully out of his depth at test level so far. His option taking was very poor versus USA, and he seemed obsessed with running the ball himself (indeed he always seems a bit obsessed with this!). His first pass when he came on versus Scotland was fired along the ground, and could has cost the ABs. There is no doubt he has talent - he's a dangerous runner, a physical defender, and can pass the ball well (though can be a bit erratic). I have seen nothing to suggest his decision making is good enough at Super Rugby level, let alone test level. I think he could develop into a quality test 9, but he needs a few more years at Super Rugby in my opinon (as Mr Fish suggested he may well find himself on the bench behind Weber at the Chiefs this year too...).

I think you're being a bit harsh there Darwin. That was actually his second pass. His first pass was sky high If you average them out he's hitting at about the right height.

 

[Jack Reacher]

Watching the game again, it was very similar to the England match. NZ kept the opposition scoreless for a long periods - against England through possession and territory, and Scotland through defense. Scotland had a lot of ball second half and tried to play but ended up losing ground or making errors due to pressure.
NZ is formulating a 'win ugly' system. Basically its getting a lead of 8 points or over going into the last 8-10 minutes and holding on with a comfort barrier. Im sick of the 'you were lucky' text messages I get every week - its not luck it's a formula! There is no bonus points on offer so why should NZ bust a gut to score 4-5 tries?
Sometimes a team may score a try in the 78th minute like England did on 2-3 occasions this year which flatters the scoreline, whereas realistically they were never in with a chance.

 

[Larksea]

pulu's error rate is obviously a reflection of his running the ball more often, any is more likely to make and him running it more is probably a reflection of the fact he often comes on in the last 30min as a fresh player running against tired forwards. Generally you would expect 9's to hardly run at all in the first 30 and first 20 of the 2nd half.

Pulu is young and has a lot to work on, if I point back at the reason I said he should be given more chances. Aaron Smith is proving to be irreplaceable for the AB's because of his ball speed and passing ability, of the current 9's I think Pulu has the skills and ability to best backup smith. He's still young and on a steap learning and improvement curve.

Perenara has got a lot of time on this tour and he has not impressed me. Where is the Shaun Johnson like player that we saw in 2012-13? He just seems to be going from ruck to ruck and passing, not passing fast enough and he even made a couple of schoolboy errors against Scotland. One was at a critical time mid field hot on attack.

 

[Shaggy]

Watching the game again, it was very similar to the England match. NZ kept the opposition scoreless for a long periods - against England through possession and territory, and Scotland through defense. Scotland had a lot of ball second half and tried to play but ended up losing ground or making errors due to pressure.
NZ is formulating a 'win ugly' system. Basically its getting a lead of 8 points or over going into the last 8-10 minutes and holding on with a comfort barrier. Im sick of the 'you were lucky' text messages I get every week - its not luck it's a formula! There is no bonus points on offer so why should NZ bust a gut to score 4-5 tries?
Sometimes a team may score a try in the 78th minute like England did on 2-3 occasions this year which flatters the scoreline, whereas realistically they were never in with a chance.

I agree - a win is a win ... I sometimes think that people under estimate how difficult it is for any international team to win away from home ... I'm not sure about the "bust a gut" comment though, I don't think it's lack of trying on the part of the AB's (I'm sure they'd love to score 4 or 5 tries every test), I think they just have confidence in being able to close out tight matches, and their systems in place (hence, it's not luck)