[2014 EOYT] Wales vs Australia

[Big Ewis]

Location: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff, Wales
Ref: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Date: November 8th 2014
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[Bada-Bing!]

Wallabies to win by 1 point.

 

[Big Ewis]

Wallabies to win by 1 point.

haha, you b**ch !! worst thing is that's a very probable outcome.

 

[j'nuh]

I wonder whether Gatland might go with Warburton/Tipuric this time round. That he wants to give preference to home-based players surely means that Tipuric has to push ahead of Lydiate?

Would like to see Baker on the bench too.

 

[Maverick1987]

Wales is a good game for Australia to start with imo . I think after losing so many games to Aus closely the confidence is slipping . Aus are obviously going through a transitional period atm . This is a must win game for wales ahead of next years RWC just to prove to themselves they can win against the SH teams .

 

[Big Ewis]

@j'nuh I don't think so. Jamie Roberts, Mike Phillips, Dan Lydiate...those guys appear to be physically present in France, but they were always in Wales...and it certainly doesn't seem to me like there's any kind of proximity preference from the Welsh staff, as they themselves know anyways those guys aren't really abroad and can conjure up good form on demand out of God knows where for country. And Gatland loves meat, he loves MASS. He's going for Lydiate unless I'm underestimating the good form of those other flanks, which I have zero idea about.

@Maverick1987 good point there. I do think Wales will lose this though. Given it's the first game of the home series for them, they'll be fresh and pumped as fk, but perhaps a bit rusty, and the Wallabies looked on form even for a Baabaas game at least in the movements and continuity, Rugby fundamentals. Whether they're in transition I don't think will weigh in as strongly as one would imagine. And the Wallabies are fresh off playing NZ, the Boks and a conquering Pumas team repeatedly, Wales at home doesn't scare them.

 

[j'nuh]

Ever since Gatland took over in 2008, he's talked about wanting to pick/give preference to home-based players. A lot of journalists/fans call it "Gatland's Law". He's struggled to implement it before because the regions were losing too many stars and the national team would have taken an enormous hit to try and enforce it. But since dual contracts were introduced last year, I think he's now got a real shot at making it work. He's already omitted James Hook (I believe for the first squad since he took over). There's been an instant reaction from the French-based players, with Lydiate looking to move back mid-season and Roberts rumoured to be coming back too. I think Gatland's going to edge towards picking the Wales-based players on the 50/50 calls in order to try and pull the overseas players back.

 

[Big Ewis]

I know I've read all that literature. Reality remains those guys have been picked regardless, think Roberts and Phillips. AND, and and and - far more importantly for me, Frenchman - have shown good form again out of thin air, I reiterate.

 

[Jbobo]

Wallabies will win it by 1-4 points after at least 76 minutes gone. Wales will lead for a significant period of the match.

The usual script.

I'll be seriously disappointed if Phillips and Lydiate start. They have played barely any rugby and to be honest, i've lost a lot of faith in Lydiate in particular over the past couple of seasons. Tipuric has to start, he is probably the most gifted all round player we have and i've never seen him have a bad game. He won't though obviously.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I think Wales will do will then fold up in the last 10 minutes either giving Australia the lead or letting them extend it. It seems the world needs balance and whilst the ABs can often snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, the Welsh seem to have got in the habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

[RoosTah]

Really can't pick this... team looked a little raw in their first outing under Cheika and I reckon his style may take a while to sink in, so I can see Wales taking advantage a bit here. That said, I've expected Wales to beat us on numerous occasions over the past few years and some how we just keep coming up with the win, so you never know.

 

[Guilty]

The Wallabies are the definition of a confidence team and they will be very confident against Wales. With more to play for and more time playing together, I'm backing Australia by 10 to 15 points. It's been a tough RC for the Wallabies and a year of much change but people seem to forget the gap between NH and SH this time of year. Each Spring Tour one of the "Big 3" comes out the RC/TN wounded but ultimately bounces back on the EOYT. I don't see why this year would be any different. The NZ and SA packs are what give the Wallabies trouble, limiting possession and positive ball for the backline. The Wallabies forwards fair much better against NH packs (outside the scrums anyway) usually allowing the backs to win games for us. If Wales can control possession and set piece, they are a real chance but from what I've seen, England and Ireland are the real threat with Wales fading.

 

[Every Time Ref]

The obvious pick is Aus because history, but surely it can't keep going forever?! The suggestion that Cheika is building new systems which might take a few games to properly bed in, we did see a bit of structural disorganisation against the Baabaas, maybe means this is the one Wales finally take and get the monkey off their back in time for the World Cup. Also Aus's last game was a storming performance against the ABs, which, on recent form, suggests they're due a crappy performance next time out. Unless Baabaas was the crappy one, and now they're due a stormer against Wales?

 

[MojoPin]

Struggling to call this one. Going by previous experience I'd put Australia down as clear favourites - it'll be a real surprise (albeit a wonderful one!) if Wales come strong out of the gates. It normally takes us a bit of time to warm up and it's their first match of the series so I expect the Wallabies will benefit from the extra time they've had together. If it was the 3rd or 4th game I'd be a little more optimistic. Still think Wales will put in a reasonably strong showing, but probably not quite enough. BUT...in interviews so far it seems Gatland is acutely aware of Wales' slow starts and who knows - maybe this year will be different?

As for a starting XV, I'd go for a slightly modified but still fairly standard lineup...

1 G Jenkins
2 R Hibbard
3 S Lee
4 AW Jones
5 L Charteris / J Ball (can't decide...)
6 S Warburton
7 J Tipuric
8 T Faletau
9 R Webb
10 D Biggar
11 G North
12 J Davies (if fit...S Williams if not and C Allen at last resort)
13 J Roberts
14 A Cuthbert
15 L Halfpenny

Subs:
1 P James
2 S Baldwin
3 N Smith
4 J Ball / L Charteris (whichever isn't used above)
5 D Lydiate / D Baker
6 L Williams / R Priestland
7 M Phillips

Think that would be pretty much the best team we could put out. One possible change would be to play Warburton at 7 with Lydiate at 6 then switch out Lydiate for Tipuric in the second half. If I had to choose I'd always have Warburton in the team but having two 7s on the field would make a big difference here I think. Having said that, Lydiate on form would be wonderful to have against Kuridrani...biggest threat on the field as far as I'm concerned.

It's a tough one but looking forward to a good game!

 

[goodNumber10]

Aussies by 10 points.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I wonder whether Gatland might go with Warburton/Tipuric this time round. That he wants to give preference to home-based players surely means that Tipuric has to push ahead of Lydiate?

Would like to see Baker on the bench too.

Good point J'nuh. I am thinking the same. I remember watching previous Wales v Australia games, thinking that Wales just keep losing the breakdown battle. They need to try something different in their back row as Lydiate-Warburton has been a losing combo each time.

 

[Big Ewis]

Not that this is news as Australia plays a NH opponent, but they'll have a speed advantage, especially against Wales. The last few times they've been just much too fast for Wales' Gatland MASS ball up front as behind even and the Wallabies were able to navigate throughout the field. Wales are going to have to shut them down consistently, slow the tempo down and be relentless at the breakdown. They can always count on a good loose ball off to the wing for North, maybe a nice Cuthbert break...last year they were just split up by the Aus., but then again it was Quade Cooper leading the charge and he was on top form that tour, my my...

 

[Jbobo]

Not that this is news as Australia plays a NH opponent, but they'll have a speed advantage, especially against Wales. The last few times they've been just much too fast for Wales' Gatland MASS ball up front as behind even and the Wallabies were able to navigate throughout the field. Wales are going to have to shut them down consistently, slow the tempo down and be relentless at the breakdown. They can always count on a good loose ball off to the wing for North, maybe a nice Cuthbert break...last year they were just split up by the Aus., but then again it was Quade Cooper leading the charge and he was on top form that tour, my my...

I agree, we won't outplay the Aussies with our current favored selection. If we can gain dominance up front, the power of our back three will be very dangerous. Especially North. I don''t think we need to slow the tempo down as such, but that dominance up front needs to happen, otherwise slowing it down and making it a tight power game is our only option. I actually think Wales play better at a high tempo, as long as the physicality is up there, it's been where we have played the best rugby.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

1) Look at the 3rd Lions game
2) See what worked so well
3) ?????
4) WIN!

 

[Every Time Ref]

My memory of the third test was getting quicker ball and forwards punching round the fringes. Although he was 9 that day, I don't think Phillips is your best guy to play that game, is he expected to start?