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I know interest in the NPC has waned on here in the last few years, but I figure it would be good to get a bit of discussion going before the season kicks off in a week!
I think we could be in for a very interesting season.
Premiership Predictions
1 Auckland (last year 3rd)
If they can get some good front-foot ball then they should be nigh unstoppable. Their backline is the best in the competition - possibly the best we've seen at this level in a long time.
2 Canterbury (1st)
Purely because I think we've seen enough of Canterbury over the last few years I've dropped them down a peg to second. Like Auckland they have a great backline (perhaps lacking in flair a bit) and should be in the final, providing they don't have too many injuries.
3 Taranaki (6th)
I think Taranaki will have a good year after last season's disappointment. Bringing in guys like Charlie Ngatai and Marty Mckenzie should see their solid forward player rewarded with a few more tries this year which is where they really fell down in 2013 with the fewest in the competition (14).
4 Tasman (1st in Championship)
Across the park Tasman have a very good squad, many of who will have benefited from a season of Super Rugby. Providing that Marty Bankes is returns from injury early in the season they should be good enough to push for a top four finish.
5 Counties Manukau (4th)
Counties will throw everything they have into their Ranfurly Shield matches, which could have a negative effect later in the season, particularly if they lose the Shield. Like Tasman they have a good all-round squad, and it will be important that Baden Kerr is injury-free.
6 Wellington (2nd)
After last year's fall at the last hurdle Wellington lost a fair few of their seasoned players - guys like Alapati Leuia and Faifili Levave. Add to that players who have relocated elsewhere, such as Lima Sopoaga and all signs point to Wellington regressing a bit this year, especially if some of their key players remain injured. A poor start to see their season crash before it ever really gets going.
7 Waikato (5th)
The starting XV for Waikato's final pre-season match (where the coach has said he is putting out his top team) has an average age of under 22 - presumably the youngest in the competition. Packed with potential and likely future superstars, this season will be a time for Waikato to rebuild. It is probably we will see Waikato relegated this year, but it will be very interesting to see where this squad is another two or three!
Championship Predictions
1 Hawke's Bay (2nd)
Hawke's Bay have recruited well in the off-season, bringing in stalwarts such as Matt Berquist and Jason Shoemark. The team is lacking in experience in the front row, but they will be hard to knock over regardless. Ihaia West's time with the Blues will have helped immensely.
2 North Harbour (7th)
Last year was terrible, but with some good recruiting Harbour should see themselves contesting for top spot in the Championship in 2014. Their backline should be very potent, and is probably second to only Hawke's Bay, plus their pre-season results have been very promising. Once again the requirement will be for their forwards to get fast ball to allow their backline to attack.
3 Otago (3rd)
Otago will likely make the semis by virtue of being not as terrible as the teams beneath them, as opposed to them having any real strengths. That might be a bit harsh, they do perform well as a team and are certainly a better team than the sum of their parts, but it doesn't look like there's a whole lot for Dunedinites to get excited about this year (except a Shield challenge or two!).
4 Bay of Plenty (7th in Premiership)
In contrast to the teams above them, Bay of Plenty had a relatively poor off-season and it's hard to see them making any great improvements from last year. They likely won't be flattened by any teams, but their backline leaves much to be desired and it wouldn't be surprising to see them come out of 2014 as bottom try scorers.
5 Manawatu (5th)
Like Otago, Manawatu tend to perform to a higher standard than their team list implies. They have over performed for the last few years, and their home crowds should get them over the line in a few games where they are unfancied by the rest of the country.
6 Southland (4th)
It's not a good look when your premium players start looking elsewhere to play their rugby. Losing both Marty Mckenzie and Robbie Robinson will ensure that Southland finish near the bottom of the competition, and will likely be competing with Bay of Plenty for the bottom try-scorers tag.
7 Northland (6th)
Northland's big name signing in the off-season was Winston Stanley. That says it all, really.
I think we could be in for a very interesting season.
Premiership Predictions
1 Auckland (last year 3rd)
If they can get some good front-foot ball then they should be nigh unstoppable. Their backline is the best in the competition - possibly the best we've seen at this level in a long time.
2 Canterbury (1st)
Purely because I think we've seen enough of Canterbury over the last few years I've dropped them down a peg to second. Like Auckland they have a great backline (perhaps lacking in flair a bit) and should be in the final, providing they don't have too many injuries.
3 Taranaki (6th)
I think Taranaki will have a good year after last season's disappointment. Bringing in guys like Charlie Ngatai and Marty Mckenzie should see their solid forward player rewarded with a few more tries this year which is where they really fell down in 2013 with the fewest in the competition (14).
4 Tasman (1st in Championship)
Across the park Tasman have a very good squad, many of who will have benefited from a season of Super Rugby. Providing that Marty Bankes is returns from injury early in the season they should be good enough to push for a top four finish.
5 Counties Manukau (4th)
Counties will throw everything they have into their Ranfurly Shield matches, which could have a negative effect later in the season, particularly if they lose the Shield. Like Tasman they have a good all-round squad, and it will be important that Baden Kerr is injury-free.
6 Wellington (2nd)
After last year's fall at the last hurdle Wellington lost a fair few of their seasoned players - guys like Alapati Leuia and Faifili Levave. Add to that players who have relocated elsewhere, such as Lima Sopoaga and all signs point to Wellington regressing a bit this year, especially if some of their key players remain injured. A poor start to see their season crash before it ever really gets going.
7 Waikato (5th)
The starting XV for Waikato's final pre-season match (where the coach has said he is putting out his top team) has an average age of under 22 - presumably the youngest in the competition. Packed with potential and likely future superstars, this season will be a time for Waikato to rebuild. It is probably we will see Waikato relegated this year, but it will be very interesting to see where this squad is another two or three!
Championship Predictions
1 Hawke's Bay (2nd)
Hawke's Bay have recruited well in the off-season, bringing in stalwarts such as Matt Berquist and Jason Shoemark. The team is lacking in experience in the front row, but they will be hard to knock over regardless. Ihaia West's time with the Blues will have helped immensely.
2 North Harbour (7th)
Last year was terrible, but with some good recruiting Harbour should see themselves contesting for top spot in the Championship in 2014. Their backline should be very potent, and is probably second to only Hawke's Bay, plus their pre-season results have been very promising. Once again the requirement will be for their forwards to get fast ball to allow their backline to attack.
3 Otago (3rd)
Otago will likely make the semis by virtue of being not as terrible as the teams beneath them, as opposed to them having any real strengths. That might be a bit harsh, they do perform well as a team and are certainly a better team than the sum of their parts, but it doesn't look like there's a whole lot for Dunedinites to get excited about this year (except a Shield challenge or two!).
4 Bay of Plenty (7th in Premiership)
In contrast to the teams above them, Bay of Plenty had a relatively poor off-season and it's hard to see them making any great improvements from last year. They likely won't be flattened by any teams, but their backline leaves much to be desired and it wouldn't be surprising to see them come out of 2014 as bottom try scorers.
5 Manawatu (5th)
Like Otago, Manawatu tend to perform to a higher standard than their team list implies. They have over performed for the last few years, and their home crowds should get them over the line in a few games where they are unfancied by the rest of the country.
6 Southland (4th)
It's not a good look when your premium players start looking elsewhere to play their rugby. Losing both Marty Mckenzie and Robbie Robinson will ensure that Southland finish near the bottom of the competition, and will likely be competing with Bay of Plenty for the bottom try-scorers tag.
7 Northland (6th)
Northland's big name signing in the off-season was Winston Stanley. That says it all, really.
