[2014 ITM Cup] Round 3

[TRF Mr Fish]

ROUND 3

27/08 - Waikato v Taranaki

Waikato: Albert Nikoro, Declan O'Donnell, Jordan Payne, Shayne Anderson, Joe Webber, Wharenui Hawera, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Adam Burn, Marty Holah (c), Josh Tyrell, Jacob Skeen, Luke Katene, Josh Hohneck, Brayden Mitchell, James McGougan. Reserves: Harry Jones, Ben Tameifuna, David Morgan, Zane Kapeli, Brad Weber, Damian McKenzie, Regan Ware.

Taranaki: James Marshall (c), Jackson Ormond, Seta Tamanivalu, Charlie Ngatai, Waisake Naholo, Marty McKenzie, Jamison Gibson-Park, Blade Thomson, Berny Hall, Mitchell Crosswell, James Broadhurst, Leighton Price, Angus Ta'avao, Rhys Marshall, Mitchell Graham. Reserves: Timo Tutavaha, Ryan Cocker, Riki Hoeata, Toa Halafihi, Chris Smylie, Sean Wainui, Codey Rei.

28/08 - Canterbury v Northland

Canterbury: Richie Mo'unga, Rob Thompson, Jack Goodhue, Adam Whitelock, Milford Keresoma, Colin Slade, Mitchell Drummond, Nasi Manu (c), Jed Brown, Tom Sanders, Matt Symons, Jack Everson, Nepo Laulala, Ben Funnell, Joe Moody. Reserves: Codie Taylor, Siate Tokolahi, JJ Manning, Luke Whitelock, Willi Heinz, Nathaniel Apa, Patrick Osborne.

Northland: Mathew Wright, Filip Nakosi, Winston Stanley, Troy Gilbert, Jone Macilai, Dan Hawkins, Sonatane Takulua, Cam Eyre (c), Jack Ram, Dan Pryor, Tom Murday, Shane Neville, Namatahi Waa, Matthew Moulds, Ross Wright. Reserves: Howard Silioto, Willgriff John, Michael Stolberg, Kara Pryor, Kurt Davies, Latiume Fosita, Warren Dunn.

29/08 - Wellington v Manawatu

Wellington: Jason Woodward, Ambrose Curtis, Ope Peleseuma, Shaun Treeby, Andrew Wells, Chase Tiatia, TJ Perenara, Brad Shields (c), Adam Hill, Mark Reddish, Christian Loyd, Jeremy Thrush, Tan, Tolu Fahamokioa, Reggie Goodes. Reserves: James O'Reilly, Eric Sione, Vaea Fifita, Henry Stowers, Sheridan Rangihuna, Tu Umaga-Marshall, Tau Mamea.

Manawatu: Nehe Milner-Skudder, Newton Tudreu, Jason Emery, Hamish Northcott, Nathan Tudreu, Otere Black, Kayne Hammington, James Oliver, Callum Gibbins (c), Heiden Bedwell-Curtis, Nick Crosswell, Keepa Mewett, Ma'afu Fia, Rob Foreman, Chris Eves. Reserves: Nick Grogan, Hubert Buydens, Fraser Stone, Antonio Kiri Kiri, Jamie Booth, Jade Te Rure, Jaxon Tagavaitau.

30/08 - Counties Manukau v Hawke's Bay (RS)

Counties Manukau: Tim Nanai-Williams (c), Frank Halai, Rey Lee-Lo, Bundee Aki, Sherwin Stowers, Ahsee Tuala, Augustine Pulu, Jordan Taufua, Onosa'i Auva'a, Johnny Kawau, Jimmy Tupou, Ronald Raaymakers, Jarron Firth, Suliasi Taufalele, Pauliasi Manu. Reserves: Sione Anga'aelangi, Sean Bagshaw, Viliami Rarasea, Maama Vaipulu, Kane Hancy, Michael Stanley, Sam Vaka.

Hawke's Bay: Israel Dagg, Richard Buckman, Robbie Fruean, Andrew Horrell, Ryan Tongia, Ihaia West, Chris Eaton, Gareth Evans, Brendan O'Connor (c), Tony Lamborn, Mark Abbott, Michael Allardice, Jason Marshall, Ash Dixon, Brendon Edmonds. Reserves: Ged Robinson, Adrian Barone, Tom Parsons, Trent Boswell-Wakefield, Ellery Wilson, Jason Shoemark, Matt Berquist.

30/08 - Southland v Otago

Southland: Junior Ngaluafe, Mark Jackman, Cardiff Vaega, Willis Halaholo, Jamie Verran, Lima Sopoaga, Scott Eade, Elliot Dixon, Tim Boys, John Hardie, Michael Fatialofa, Josh Bekhuis, JP Koen, Talemaitoga Tuapati, Jamie Mackintosh (c). Reserves: Dillan Halaholo, Tony Keresoma, Michael Stewart, Bill Fukofuka, Tayler Adams, Lolohea Loco, Bryan Milne.

Otago: Trent Renata, Jayden Spence, Michael Collins, Tei Walden, Fa'asiu Fuatai, Hayden Parker, Josh Renton, Charlie O'Connell (c), James Lentjes, TJ Ioane, Tom Franklin, Joe Latta, Donald Brighouse, Liam Coltman, Aki Seiuli. Reserves: Sam Anderson-Heather, Hisa Sasagi, Jackson Hemopo, Naulia Dawai, Nick Ealey, Peter Breen, Tony Ensor.

30/08 - North Harbour v Waikato

North Harbour: Robbie Robinson, David Raikuna, Pita Ahki, Niko Ratumaitavuki, Tevita Li, Matt McGahan, Bryn Hall (c), Jim Tuitaviti, Zak Judge, Jordan Manihera, Hayden Triggs, Mike Farmer, Sione Mafileo, James Parsons, Greg Pleasants Tate. Reserves: Ray Niuia, Adrian Smith, Brandon Nansen, Mario Ozich, David Bason, Daniel Halangahu, Luke Devcich.

Waikato: Albert Nikoro, Declan O'Donnell, Chauncy Edwardson, Anton Lienert-Brown, Joe Webber, Damian McKenzie, Brad Weber (c), Adam Burn, Zak Hohneck, Whetu Douglas, Jacob Skeen, Luke Katene, Ben Tameifuna, Hame Faiva, Loni Uhila. Reserves: Brayden Mitchell, Josh Hohneck, Nick Ross, Zane Kapeli, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Wharenui Hawera, Regan Ware.

31/08 - Bay of Plenty v Taranaki

31/08 - Auckland v Tasman

Tasman: James Lowe, Bryce Heem, Kieron Fonotia, Tom Marshall, Robbie Malneek, Marty Bankes, Jimmy Cowan, Liam Squire, Shane Christie, Pete Samu, Joe Wheeler, Tevita Cavubati, Ross Geldenhuys, Quentin Macdonald, Siua Hulanukunuka. Reserves: Jesse Macdonald, Reuben Northover, Jeff Lepa, Tevita Koloamatangi, Billy Guyton, Rohan Saifoloi, David Havili.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

This week we see the first Wednesday game, which in turn means it's the first time one team has to play twice in a round.

A bunch of All Blacks have been released for round 3:

Charlie Faumuina (Auckland)
Charles Piutau (Auckland)
Steven Luatua (Auckland)
Colin Slade (Canterbury)
Joe Moody (Canterbury)
Tawera Kerr-Barlow (Waikato)
TJ Perenara (Wellington)
Jeremy Thrush (Wellington)
Israel Dagg (Hawke's Bay)
Nathan Harris (Bay of Plenty)

It will be interesting to see how they are incorporated by their teams - it's not as difficult for props and outside backs, but I don't know if guys like Slade and TJP will slot straight into the starting lineup.

Waikato will likely announce their lineup for the Wednesday match later today. TKB might get a start sometime this week - though most probably on Saturday. Weber will rightly lead the team during the week, I'd imagine. Otherwise I'm sure we'll see a few changes to the team given the schedule.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

So TKB, Slade and Moody have been rushed straight back into the starting lineups for Waikato and Canterbury. For Waikato in particular it isn't too unusual given they have two matches this week.

 

[ABs2011]

So TKB, Slade and Moody have been rushed straight back into the starting lineups for Waikato and Canterbury. For Waikato in particular it isn't too unusual given they have two matches this week.

You have to feel for Brad Weber huh? I think he has been one of, if not the stand out player for Waikato so far, and now he finds himself on the bench. Anyone know if it is the ABs that make this call or the Waikato coaching staff? I would have thought bringing TKB off the bench might have been a better option for Waikato.... Remembering also, than in additional to the form Weber has shown, he is (was) their captain as well.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

You have to feel for Brad Weber huh? I think he has been one of, if not the stand out player for Waikato so far, and now he finds himself on the bench. Anyone know if it is the ABs that make this call or the Waikato coaching staff? I would have thought bringing TKB off the bench might have been a better option for Waikato.... Remembering also, than in additional to the form Weber has shown, he is (was) their captain as well.

Yeah pretty hard on Weber, but a fairly large portion of the team has been changed to allow for some of the players who are going to have big workloads to freshen up.

I don't know if the AB coaches would've instructed the provinces to play their All Blacks, but I think they certainly would've told the coaches that they would prefer it.

 

[ABs2011]

Thoughts for tonights game? Im looking forward to it. Waikato looks like they will be exciting to watch this year, but for me, the interest will be to see how they match up against a pretty good Taranaki team? For me Taranaki looked to have the better of Counties in week 1, and for much of the first half of HB game they looked better as well (didn't watch the majority of the 2nd half). In both games Taranaki was pretty dominant in the scrums, but as per the pre-season tended to fall away in the second half. Lack of fitness? an inferior bench? or just not able to switch on for the full 80?

Getting a handle on Waikato is tough. They have arguably come up against the most disappointing side in the comp to date (Wellington) - who they put away comfortably, and the most impressive (Canterbury) who put them away with ease...Hard therefore to get a good sense of where they are at. There's no doubt their backs are full of talent and with the ball in hand are executing well, defensively there are pretty big question marks though. And I'm undecided on their forwards...

Weather looking pretty good for the game as well.

Expecting a high scoring game, and may well take a punt and back Taranaki.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

If Naki are paying reasonably I'd definitely put my money on them.

Maybe if Waikato were fielding the same team as previously I'd have a bit more faith, but the changes at 10 and 12 in particular will upset their patterns significantly.

Might add a bit more when I get home...

 

[Darwin]

I'm picking Taranaki for the 1st match too. I think they have a slight more complete side than Waikato. I was looking forward to seeing the McKenzie brothers starting against each other in the 10 jerseys, but Damian is on the bench for Waikato. I assume Damian will be restricted in the number of matches he can start for Waikato this season, as they usually have a policy of restricting game-time for players under 20.

Interesting to see Wellington are starting their 3rd 10 in 3 matches, with 18 year old Chase Tiatia given a shot. He has apparently been very impressive at club rugby on the wing (as the club coaches didn't think he was ready to start at 10 yet!), but this will be a massive challenge for him!

 

[Regan]

I'm picking Taranaki for the 1st match too. I think they have a slight more complete side than Waikato. I was looking forward to seeing the McKenzie brothers starting against each other in the 10 jerseys, but Damian is on the bench for Waikato. I assume Damian will be restricted in the number of matches he can start for Waikato this season, as they usually have a policy of restricting game-time for players under 20.

Interesting to see Wellington are starting their 3rd 10 in 3 matches, with 18 year old Chase Tiatia given a shot. He has apparently been very impressive at club rugby on the wing (as the club coaches didn't think he was ready to start at 10 yet!), but this will be a massive challenge for him!

Wellington need all the help they can get. TJ should provide a bit of fire power which is good. If we don't play with some structure, Manawatu will romp us and I mean really romp us andddd we'll be looking at relegation tbh.

 

[donmcdazzle]

This is a huge chance for the turbos to get a win over Wellington. Tight 5 from Wellington is a shadow of past seasons and Mark Reddish and Adam Hill are worse than Crosswell and Gibbins at loose forward. Rookie first five at the helm - you'd have to say it's a good chance for us. Knowing us though he'll have a blinder and him and TJ will tear us up. I wish So'oialo was starting at 10 again cause he is rubbish.

 

[nickdnz]

This season relegation looks pretty damn likely. Which is good as it means we have a chance of winning something next year . Unfortunately the Hurricanes will have no chance of winning anything other than the wooden spoon with Chris Boyd..

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Right, here's what I would be betting on if I were a betting man!

Taranaki @ $3.00
This is an absolute steal. I would probably have Taranaki as favourites for this match regardless of how much they're paying to win! With a new halves combo, a new centre pairing, a new tight five (bar hooker) and new flankers, this is basically a completely different Waikato team from the one that has shown so much promise in the last two rounds. In contrast Taranaki have only really tweaked their lineup and should be able to do some damage. I can only see Waikato winning if they get a few tries against the run of play.

Canterbury @ $1.02
Northland are paying $12 to win, but I just can't see it happening, even with the vast number number of changes Canterbury have made to their lineup. Perhaps if the game were being played up north then things would be a bit different.

Manawatu @ $4.20
The above comments from Don basically sum up my thoughts too. Wellington should be stronger than they've been in the last couple of matches due to their returning players, but Manawatu showed some good signs in beating Northland and Wellington seem to get little advantage from playing at home. It will either be a close win to Manawatu, or a thrashing by Wellington.

Hawke's Bay @ $2.80
I think Counties should be slight favourites due to their home advantage and of course the fact that they're defending the Shield. They will still be without Baden Kerr, however, and their performance against Otago was far from convincing. With a few more X-factor players in the back Otago could have won. In contrast, Hawke's Bay will have West, Fruean and Dagg who should be able to do some damage.

Southland @ 1.87
Even odds for this match. I think Otago are the stronger team but Southland have been very good this season and the set piece and Sopoaga has been on form with the boot. This will be another turgid affair with Southland likely coming out on top by a penalty or three.

No odds yet for the North Harbour/Waikato match this Saturday, but I think that Waikato will get up providing they bring back McKenzie, Lienert-Brown, Tucker, Tameifuna and Hohneck. This derby has always been pretty good in the past, I might have to pay Harbour Stadium a visit!

Tasman @ 2.55
I'm surprised at how well Tasman are paying to beat Auckland. I think that Tasman are the form team in the competition, besides Canterbury of course. Their backline may not be quite as exciting as Auckland's (though it's close!), but their forwards are of a higher standard in my opinion and they perform better as a team. Maybe Bankes will even pull out another 20 pointer.

Given the number of high earning encounters this weekend, I'd probably be tempted to tip Wellington over Manawatu as a slightly less risky option (they surely can't have three awful games in a row) and stick with the rest of the picks.

 

[Regan]

My bets for this round:

Waikato -3.5 (1st half) $4.00 @ $2.00

Counties $4.00 @ $1.48 ( I usually don't tip on anything below 1.5 but HB just don't look like winning tbh)
Counties - 2.5 (1st half) $2.00 @ $1.85

Wellington -4.5 (1st half) $4.00 @ $1.80

Southland $5.00 @ $1.80
Southland -1.5 (1st half) $3.00 @ $2.10

Tasman $4.00 @ $2.75
Tasman +2.5 (1st half) $4.00 @ $1.90

Total staked: $30.00

Bit cautious for the 6 games. Usually stake a good $50 at least. I reckon there's a couple of games that could really swing either way.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

My bets for this round:

Waikato -3.5 (1st half) $4.00 @ $2.00

Counties $4.00 @ $1.48 ( I usually don't tip on anything below 1.5 but HB just don't look like winning tbh)
Counties - 2.5 (1st half) $2.00 @ $1.85

Wellington -4.5 (1st half) $4.00 @ $1.80

Southland $5.00 @ $1.80
Southland -1.5 (1st half) $3.00 @ $2.10

Tasman $4.00 @ $2.75
Tasman +2.5 (1st half) $4.00 @ $1.90

Total staked: $30.00

Bit cautious for the 6 games. Usually stake a good $50 at least. I reckon there's a couple of games that could really swing either way.

Good to have another poster on here.

Why the low opinion of Hawke's Bay?

 

[Regan]

Good to have another poster on here.

Why the low opinion of Hawke's Bay?

Don't get me wrong, I really like the squad. They'll be bolstered by Dagg but I just reckon they've been under performing. They had a terrible game against Tasman (who admittedly have been the most exciting team so far) and whilst playing better against the Naki, still haven't reached a performance they're capable of with their forwards and backs.

They have been unlucky with their draw though and have had to start out with 3 1st tier teams, with the shield challenge coming at the back end. Traditionally shield games are a lot closer than they should be but I reckon Counties have this pretty comfortably, if they target the right areas.

Hoping to see Dagg put in a good performance though.

 

[ABs2011]

Bit late, but Im going Taranaki at $3. Took Taranaki +10.5 as well @ $1.6

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Joe Webber has looked sharp so far this season - started well tonight too. Could be in line for top try scorer? Otherwise probably Osborne or one of Tasman's backs.

 

[ABs2011]

Joe Webber has looked sharp so far this season - started well tonight too. Could be in line for top try scorer? Otherwise probably Osborne or one of Tasman's backs.

Not as well as Taranaki though huh!! In pretty much all facets which has suprised me a touch. Their scrum has been dominant as expected, but their D has been up to task and their attack as been way superior - too much for Waikato to handle!

 

[ABs2011]

WOW - turn style defense on that 3rd try... disappointing from Waikato.

I'm gonna lay a bit of blame on the coach here - Im not sure making all those changes was smart. TKB has made some shocking decisions so far, and their structures on attack look to be hurting as well without Weber and McKenzie, and Tamiefuna should have started knowing how good the Taranaki scrum would be.....

 

[Regan]

This is going to be a romp. Waikato look lost and Taranaki have been class. A much needed performance for them.