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[2014 Super Rugby] All Blacks Watch - Midseason

TRF Mr Fish

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Back at the start of the season I did a quick run down of who was in contention to gain a place in the All Blacks squad come the internationals this year. Last year in June the All Blacks took on Ireland with a 31 man squad, so it's likely we'll be seeing a similar number for this season when we host England.

There are a number of players who at the start of the season could have considered themselves certainties for selection, regardless of how well or poorly they performed.

SAFE

Hooker - Mealamu, Coles
Prop - Franks, Woodcock, Crockett, Faumuina
Lock - Whitelock, Retallick
Loose Forward - McCaw, Read, Messam, Cane
Halfback - Smith
First Five - Cruden, Barrett
Centre - Nonu, Smith
Outside Back - Dagg, Smith, Piutau, Savea

There are 21 players in the above group, meaning there's enough space for 10 more players in the squad.

HOOKER

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First up, is the hooker position, a position we've struggled to fill with new blood in the last few years. At the start of the season I noted that there were only really two contenders for the third hooking berth, namely Rhys Marshall and Liam Coltman. Both are reasonably young (Coltman is 24 and Marshall is 21), and both are particularly promising, but both have also failed to really stand out. If they were to be picked now it would still certainly be on potential, more than proven performance. Marshall is turning into an excellent ball runner and has shown a nice ability to link with other players on attack, whereas Coltman has become very good at imposing himself around the field, particularly in the breakdowns. They're also excellent defenders, each tackling at comfortably above 90%. Unfortunately neither the Highlanders nor the Chiefs are performing in the lineouts at the moment, and the biggest issue for both teams seems to be the thrower. Until the two young guns are consistently hitting their targets 85%+ of the time, I don't think they can be considered at an international level. For the above reason I think we'll see Corey Flynn brought into the squad in June, and I think it's very likely that he'll also be the third hooker at the World Cup in 2015. While he's not as dynamic as he used to be he's a very dependable player and although it's unlikely we'll be going into the World Cup with the hooker position as one of our strengths, I think this will be the best way of ensuring it's also not one of our weaknesses.

PROP

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The propping situation is not much clearer now than it was at the start of the season. Ben Afeaki has played only 18 minutes worth or rugby, Joe Moody has yet to feature at all. Jeff Toomaga-Allen has spent a lot of time rotating with John Schwalger, which means that of the likely contenders Ben Franks is the only player to have received consistent game time. This means that at this point in time, Franks must be considered the most probable candidate to get the fifth prop position in the squad. The other player who may be close to the AB's rader to have featured prominently in the season so far is Ben Tameifuna, who hasn't been as impressive this year as in the past and still has the same issues as he always has.

LOCK

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Of the second row candidates, Jeremy Thrush has probably been the most impressive so far this season. One can't help but think that he's more of a stop gap, however, and that if fit, one of Dominic Bird or Luke Romano will be selected for the squad. Romano hasn't had as much game time this season as he would have liked, mainly due to injury, but has still performed reasonably well when called upon. His history with the All Blacks is also in his favour. Bird has the best potential of the candidates and seems to have added a more aggressive approach to his game this season, which the selectors will likely find favorable. This position is still very much up for grabs, but given there's still a 15 odd tests before the World Cup I think we may well see Bird included in the June squad. Romano will probably grab the fourth locking spot (if there is one) due to his past performances for the All Blacks.

LOOSE FORWARD

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At the start of the season it appeared to be a simple two horse race between Jerome Kaino and Steven Luatua. Kaino was the top player in the world in 2011 and part of a fearsome trio including current All Black mainstays, Richie McCaw and Kieran Read. It doesn't look like Kaino has lost any of what made him world class back in 2011, and he'll be hungry to get his jersey back. Luatua is at the opposite end of the spectrum: he's new and exciting, and can cover lock, but he's yet to prove himself at the highest level. I think that at this point in time the selectors will opt to include both players in their squad, providing they don't do something out of left field and bring in another open side flanker.

MIDFIELD

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Going into the season there were two likely options for the squad, to accompany Nonu and Smith. Francis Saili is promising but still has a few rough edges, whereas Ryan Crotty is dependable and likely to perform as required though is perhaps lacking in X-factor. Crotty has been very good so far this season, leading the Crusaders on a number of occasions and looks to certainly have his beard in front at this point in time. Saili has only really just started playing to a foot injury, but still has time to impress. His combination with Nonu could help elevate him into the squad. A bolter this season is Malakai Fekitoa, but like Saili he has a few rough edges to his game. He's still very young and probably will have to wait another couple of years before he'll have a really good chance of joining the NZ elite.

OUTSIDE BACKS

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Pre-2013 Cory Jane would've been one of the first names penciled into any All Blacks squad. That changed last year when both Ben Smith and Charles Piutau shone out on the wing for the All Blacks. Jane has started the season slowly but is slowly building, and his history with the team may well be enough to push him into the squad, providing he is playing as well as he is now for the Hurricanes come June. If he's failing to fire then the door may open up for Tom Marshall, a player who can cover the outside backs as well as the midfield. He looks set to get a good run of games with the Chiefs (something quite unusual, really) which should help him press his claim. Left field selections include James Lowe, who may appeal as an out and out winger, but may not get enough time to show his worth and someone like Tevita Li, who looks very promising but is likely a few years away from selection just yet.

LIKELY SQUAD

Hooker - Mealamu, Coles, Flynn
Prop - Franks, Woodcock, Crockett, Faumuina, Franks
Lock - Whitelock, Retallick, Bird, Romano
Loose Forward - McCaw, Read, Messam, Cane, Luatua, Kaino
Halfback - Smith, Kerr-Barlow, Perenara
First Five - Cruden, Barrett
Centre - Nonu, Smith, Crotty
Outside Back - Dagg, Smith, Piutau, Savea, Jane
 
Great post as always!

I think people are a tad harsh on Jeremy Thrush. He's very athletic and I don't think think there is a better lock in New Zealand at getting turnovers except maybe Sam Whitelock. He's very goood at link play as well - while he's solid in the lineout. I personally don't rate Romano at all but I suspect he'll be selected. Dominic Bird is exceptionally tall which you can't coach, but I'm not sure I've noticed him being as effective this season as I'd hoped. I like him, but don't think he's really warrented AB selection on anything but potential. I'd love to see Brad Thorn get a cheeky selection as he's not really looked to have slown down, but I don't think he will (though the RWC is only next year...).

I think Victor Vito should still be in the mix as he's been great upon return for the Hurricanes and feel he's really being left out. Also seeing as McCaw is injured every game, I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see Matt Todd get a callup, if not at least as a training squad member.

Tom Marshall would be the most boring selection since Caleb Ralph. He's solid but I'd be very disappointed to see him named. Tim Nanai-Williams I'd much prefer to see from the Chiefs, although don't think he's on the All Blacks radar, while Andre Taylor looks to be finding some great form again for the Hurricanes (although I don't think he is a contender either). I also wouldn't be shocked to see George Moala get a look in - as I think he's consistantly been the Blues most dangerous attacking weapon and is still only 23.
 
I guess (as always), it's going to come down to who's injured and who's not ... is Cruden going to be back from injury in time for the mid year tests, if not, it could be Colin Slade, Tom Tayler, or even Gareth Anscombe that gets the second first five spot (all of them can cover other positions in the back line too). With regard to the mid field, I think they'll go with Crotty as the third midfielder, as he seems the more dependable option, and has demonstrated that he can at least break the advantage line (which is something you can't say for most of the Crusaders backline this year) ... I'd like to see them include Fekitoa as well, and maybe they could use him on the wing as well, like they used to with Kahui.

I agree with the choice of half backs, but Kerr-Barlow and Perenara need to lift their games a bit, as they aren't appreciably better (on current form) than any other half backs, and Smith is way ahead of anyone else at the moment.

The fifth loose forward is interesting, as I think they really need someone to put their hand up at Number 8, in case Kieran Read gets injured, Messam, McCaw, Luatua, and Kaino, all seem to be stop gap measures that can be used late in the game to me, but could they manage as the starting 8 in the RWC if required? I think Vito needs a significant amount of game time, injury free, to be an option
 
Yeah, really good post Fish, nice.

I should probably think about what you've posted a bit more, but my reaction straight away was to question whether Kaino has done enough to warrant inclusion in the squad and I would think the obvious replacement would be Todd given there must be serious doubts over McCaw for 2015 (I'd like to have them both in there to be fair as I am concerned about McCaw's longevity). I also agree that Vito should be seriously considered - he seems very focused on regaining an AB spot.

I'd also like to see Dagg get a real rocket up him and drop him from the squad altogether. There is something wrong with him over the last few years and that needs to be sorted ASAP if he is going to be a factor in the RWC - IF Ben Smith isn't playing center he has earned the starting 15 spot IMO. If that happened I wouldn't mind seeing Slade come into the team with the idea that both he and Barrett could play 15 off the bench. With 2015 in mind we have SBW due to return and am I right thinking Kahui is a possibility as well? Either way we can add to our back stocks so with the concerns around the injury prone DC and Cruden I wouldn't say no to keeping Slade in the mix. Im a big fan of Jane as a winger as well - I think the ABs are better off going with really solid as opposed to x-factor with risk. The ABs will generally win if they minimize errors and I've always liked our team with players like Jane, Ben Smith, Kahui etc on the wings - Savea is a no brainer though :)


At prop I really don't know what I a talking about but I'd throw Big Ben into the mix as his ability to get over the advantage line is a real asset and I think the ABs would hugely benefit from good front foot ball. Disc on that though is I don't understand scrumaging; who is good, who is not etc etc.

I'm not convinced about Romano - agreed thrush could be a better option.

Regardless of opinion, one thing we can surely all agree on is that this crop of players we have is very very strong! I couldn't be happier with this lot looking forward to RWC2015.
 
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Another excellent read. I will briefly go though the forwards (will go through the boring bit - the backs - later):

Hooker

I tend to agree regarding Flynn. I'm not 100% convinced the AB's selectors will pick him, but it wouldn't surprise me if the did. Personally I think Coltman will be ahead of Marshall in the pecking order - not because he is playing better rugby (I feel they are both at about the same level), but I think his physical style is more suited to test rugby than Marshall's.

Props

On form it is hard to look past Ben Franks as the 5th prop. He has actually been in pretty good form for the last couple of years, it has just been his discipline that has let him down. Toomaga-Allen hasn't really pushed on as much as I would have hoped, but still has a lot of promise. It is a pity Afeaki has been injured so much as I think he offers a lot. He is incredibly mobile and his scrummaging has improved a lot over recent seasons. Tameifuna has potential but is still ridiculously overweight, has a poor work-rate, and seems more interested in playing players off the ball than playing rugby at times.

Locks

Add me to the list of those who aren't massive fans of Romano. He does have some good attributes - he is reputed to be a top class scrummager and hasn't really let the AB's down in the past. However he runs far to upright with ball in hand for me. This works fine if he gets a big run up (which he often does at the Crusaders), but at test level the AB's play a lot flatter on attack, meaning he gets driven back far too often due to his upright running style. He may still be the best option we have though.

Thrush has finally started to consistently deliver at Super Rugby level after never really living up to his potential (he was IRB under-19 player of the year in 2004). He is a pretty solid player these days who does the basics right, but I'm not sure whether 'solid' is good enough for test level. Bird has a lot of potential but has been a bit quiet this season apart from last week against the Chiefs where he really upped the physicality (though upped it a bit too much at one stage....). I still think he needs another season at Super Rugby level before he is ready for test level. Patrick Tuipolotu has shown a lot of promise for the Blues but is year or two away himself, and I've been impressed with Broadhurst over recent weeks (not that he should be in contention).

Loosies

Luke Braid is still playing the best rugby of any 7 in the country. Fact. I accept he will never play for the AB's, but boy has he played some great rugby over the last couple of seasons. I can't see the AB's selectors going past the 6 players mentioned unless there is an injury. Kaino hasn't quite looked like the Kaino of 2011, but has shown enough to suggest he can get back to that level soon enough. If McCaw is injured Todd will be the next in line (and to be fair he has been playing good rugby). I can't see Vito featuring - he has been solid for the Canes on his return, but hasn't really stood out. Shane Christie has been a real standout for the Highlanders this season but we really don't need anymore 7's!
 
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Excellent post mate. Very good analysis of current contenders. Learnt a lot reading it.
 
For me the key question for any player selected now is "Will they play in the 2015 world cup" and if the answer is no then out the door you go, I said this last year with player like Andrew Hore and we take him on an end of year tour and he does nothing that adds any value, would have been better taking a young player instead.

Hard squad to fault on paper as it shows the current form vs the known ability and experience.

Hooker

Corey Flynn is 33 and Mealamu is 35, both at the long end of the scale but what other options do we have, with maybe 19 tests until the world cup I believe we could blood Coles as the #1 hooker and drop Flynn, then identify a #3 and keep Melalamu in the squad as back up to Coles.

Prop

The status quo is fine. Not a fan of Ben Franks, just a dumb thug on the field and gives away unnecessarily penalties, if Tameifuna was 20 kg's lighter and didn't do some of his dumb play he would be looking good. If Afeaki wasn't injured so much this year he may have been a shot.

Toomaga-Allen hasn't played as well as I though he would.

Lock

Not a fan of Romano but not much else on offer, if all 3 Crusader locks make the squad it may make one of them look outside the franchise for a starting place in another team

Loose Forwards

Luke Braid must be the unluckiest player or he really ****** someone of high up.

Cane hasn't been his dynamic self this year, if Kaino is back in this mix maybe Luatua for lock cover as the 3rd lock. Messam provides cover for 8 as does McCaw so plenty of back up here.
 
Right, the rest of the side.....

Halfbacks

If they take 3 halfbacks I'm certain Smith, Kerr-Barlow, and Perenara will be the 3 chosen. If they only take two it will be Smith and Kerr-Barlow. I've been very happy with Smith's form for the Highlanders this season (after a disappointing 2013), but I has been slightly disappointed with Perenara and Kerr-Barlow. Perenara is the most complete halfback in NZ by some distance but hasn't really fired this season. His running game is good, but his passing has been rather erratic, and his handling has let him down. To me it looks like he is over-thinking things - I reckon if he just concentrates on the basics he will come right. Kerr-Barlow has been ok, but I think he been running himself far too much. A strong running game is essential for a halfback in the modern game, but there is no point in having a backline if the halfback doesn't pass them the ball!

Pulu is possibly the next in line (as reports last year suggested he is highly regarded by the AB's selectors), and he does have some good attributes. I like the way he draws defenders into him close to the breakdown to create space for his forward ball runners, but like Kerr-Barlow I feel he runs the ball himself a bit too much. The 2nd best halfback in NZ rugby is Andy Ellis - indeed he has been the 2nd best halfback for the last 2-3 years. Obviously his style of play (mainly the fact he doesn't have a long flat pass like the other options) isn't suited to the current AB's gameplan, but I can't help but feel he would still be the best bench option the AB's have available. The strange thing is that I never used to rate Ellis - I never thought he should be in the AB's until about 2011. He finally started to show he belonged at test level in 2011 (and started to dominate at Super Rugby level), but hasn't been seen at test level since...


First-five

If Cruden is fit I assume they will only take 2 10's (himself and Barrett). If he isn't fit I feel it will be a 50:50 choice between Slade and Taylor - indeed they may even be tempted to include both in the squad.


Midfield

Crotty should have the 3rd midfield spot sewn up in my opinion. He didn't look out of place at test level last season and has been in fantastic form for the Crusaders this season. He has always been a strong defender with a low error rate, but his running game has really impressed this season. I would be pretty comfortable with him starting in the midfield for the AB's (though obviously Nonu/Smith is still my preferred combo). Saili has a lot of talent but didn't really look comfortable for the AB's last season, and he needs to stop kicking the bloody ball! Fekitoa has impressed in his first Super Rugby season, but is still pretty raw, so I don't think he is ready for test rugby (yet).


Outside backs

I think Smith, Piutau, Savea, Jane and Dagg will almost certainly be the 5 chosen. Smith, Piutau, and Savea are all in excellent form, while Jane and Dagg will be picked more on past form. Dagg's form hasn't been good for a number of years now (even at international level), but the AB's selectors consider his punting and high ball skills to be invaluable at test level. Jane has been solid (but quiet) for the Hurricanes, but has shown enough touches of class to suggest he could get back to his best. I think he will struggle to make the AB's 22 at the start of the season though.

I don't think Tom Marshall will be picked (nor do I think he should be picked), but I can't agree with Nickdnz suggestion that he is boring. Marshall may not be Julian Savea but he is very good attacking player - he has a good sidestep, a good eye for the gap, and enough pace to take gaps when they appear. His versatility is an asset, but I feel his best position is fullback (and area we don't really need anymore options!). Nanai-Williams is another versitle player, but I don't think he is really much more dangerous than Marshall. He is fantastic with a bit of space, but you don't get near as much space at test level. I like the way he links with other players too, but at times he still looks like a touch player trying to play rugby at times....

Moala would be an option if the AB's wanted another big wing to backup Savea. Halai was picked last season but hasn't performed at all this season. Moala has looked good this season, and personally I felt he was at least as impressive at Halai last season - he just wasn't getting easy tries like Halai was. Moala still needs to work on his discipline, but he has all the raw tools to be handy at test level if he keeps improving (I don't think he is good enough yet though). My new hero Johnny McNicholl has been pretty rubbish this season. Please forget that I ever talked him up.....
 
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With both hooker and the centers being trouble positions, I wouldn't be suprised if four centers were taken. Nonu and Smith are gauranteed, then crotty must be the next cab off the rank with fekitoa and saili fighting it out for the fourth spot. Saili is just coming back from injury and if he finds some good consistant form should edge fekitoa. However in saying that, fekitoa has been playing out of his skin and saili didnt look all to comfortable at all black level last year.
In terms of form both braid and todd should be ahead of cane as mccaw backup. But cane will be taken as hes established as himself as the successor and has never played bad in black.
I dont know were all this questioning on ben franks selection is coming from. He scrummages well tackles hard and may even find himself as the loosehead reserve on the bench ahead of Crockett.
 
Jerome Kaino had a great performance against Tahs, if he keep the intensity he could re-dress the black jersey
 
Tuipulotu.. very raw yes, but has been playing better and certainly has more potential then bird, romano and thrush. What do people think of his ab chances?
 
Tuipulotu.. very raw yes, but has been playing better and certainly has more potential then bird, romano and thrush. What do people think of his ab chances?

Don't necessarly think he has more potential than Bird. He's more athletic and a better carrier by far - but isn't quite as effective at the set pieces or rucks. Regardless he had a good game today - I'd be suprised to see him break into the ABs squad come 2015 especially considering our locking stocks are at a huge high- but he's still pretty young.
 
With both hooker and the centers being trouble positions, I wouldn't be suprised if four centers were taken. Nonu and Smith are gauranteed, then crotty must be the next cab off the rank with fekitoa and saili fighting it out for the fourth spot. Saili is just coming back from injury and if he finds some good consistant form should edge fekitoa. However in saying that, fekitoa has been playing out of his skin and saili didnt look all to comfortable at all black level last year.
In terms of form both braid and todd should be ahead of cane as mccaw backup. But cane will be taken as hes established as himself as the successor and has never played bad in black.
I dont know were all this questioning on ben franks selection is coming from. He scrummages well tackles hard and may even find himself as the loosehead reserve on the bench ahead of Crockett.

I totally agree with Ben Franks as the forth prop ahead of Crockett his scrummaging has been good this season, and he's been very good for the Canes in open play ... yes, he needs to work on his discipline, and he has given away a few penalties in open play, but Crockett gives away so many penalties at scrum time, which is unforgivable for a prop.

I think they might be forced to give Corey Flynn another go as the third hooker, as the younger guys haven't really put their hands up yet, and have to work on their core rolls for a hooker, such as throwing the ball into the lineouts etc.

As a complete bolter for the AB's, I'd be tempted to give Gareth Anscombe a run from the bench, in the first test against England - the English will be under strength due to their club finals happening, Dan Carter is unavailable, Aaron Cruden may not be back from injury (if he is, he probably will be light on game time), so, Barrett to start, and Anscombe off the bench? ... I know Taylor and Slade are probably ahead of him in the pecking order, but his goal kicking has been pretty good, and his general play has really improved over the last couple of seasons.

... and yes Conrad, Jerome Kaino looked like he wouldn't be out of place back in the All Blacks, based on the game against the Tahs
 
Tuipulotu.. very raw yes, but has been playing better and certainly has more potential then bird, romano and thrush. What do people think of his ab chances?

He will be an All Black. Just probably not this year. He still needs to work on some of the basics - tackling, lineout work, ball handling - but he had a huge amount of potential. I agree with Nickdnz though that Bird has a lot of potential too. He is just a very different player to Tuipulotu.
 
Interesting article on Stuff today providing a bit of insight into the minds of the selectors: http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/...esting-battle-on-for-the-All-Blacks-No-2-spot

At this point in time it sounds like Flynn will not be selected for the squad unless Mealamu is unavailable. That doesn't necessarily mean the same thing will happen at the World Cup though.

His response about Coltman was typically lukewarm (he's playing "reasonably well") whereas he's said what everyone knows about Marshall, his lineout throwing is not up to international standard (though his all round game is good).

Otherwise he makes some comments about second year syndrome regarding Luatua and Bird, and praises how Slade has been playing for the Crusaders.
 
Anscombe should totally be capped off the bench against England this summer to troll Wales hard.


What are Luke Braids chances? His work rate for the Blue this season has been incredible.
 
Anscombe should totally be capped off the bench against England this summer to troll Wales hard.


What are Luke Braids chances? His work rate for the Blue this season has been incredible.

That would be the only reason to cap him, as he isn't in the top 5 10's or 15's in the country.

Luke Braid has next to no chance. He has been the best 7 in the country for the last 3 years in my opinion, but his style of play isn't what the selectors are looking for in a 7. Unless the AB's selectors have had a change of heart I imagine he is still rated behind McCaw, Cane, Todd, and possibly Latimer and Savea too....

Interesting article on Stuff today providing a bit of insight into the minds of the selectors: http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/...esting-battle-on-for-the-All-Blacks-No-2-spot

At this point in time it sounds like Flynn will not be selected for the squad unless Mealamu is unavailable. That doesn't necessarily mean the same thing will happen at the World Cup though.

His response about Coltman was typically lukewarm (he's playing "reasonably well") whereas he's said what everyone knows about Marshall, his lineout throwing is not up to international standard (though his all round game is good).

Otherwise he makes some comments about second year syndrome regarding Luatua and Bird, and praises how Slade has been playing for the Crusaders.

Based on this you would think Coltman will be the third hooker chosen. Luatua has been a bit quiet for the Blues, but I suspect given he will be included due to his ability to cover lock.
 
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Anscombe should totally be capped off the bench against England this summer to troll Wales hard.


What are Luke Braids chances? His work rate for the Blue this season has been incredible.

Hahaha that would be incredible.

That would be the only reason to cap him, as he isn't in the top 5 10's or 15's in the country.

Luke Braid has next to no chance. He has been the best 7 in the country for the last 3 years in my opinion, but his style of play isn't what the selectors are looking for in a 7. Unless the AB's selectors have had a change of heart I imagine he is still rated behind McCaw, Cane, Todd, and possibly Latimer and Savea too....

Based on this you would think Coltman will be the third hooker chosen. Luatua has been a bit quiet for the Blues, but I suspect given he will be included due to his ability to cover lock.

Presumably. There was no mention of any other hooker either.
 
If only the JAB's were still around... We'd be fielding a lineup of:

1 Toomaga-Allen
2 Marshall
3 Afeaki
4 Tuipulotu
5 Thrush
6 Shields
7 Todd
8 Vito
9 Pulu/Hall/Ellis/Weepu
10 Taylor/Slade
11 Moala
12 Saili
13 Fekitoa
14 Nanai-Williams
15 Marshall

I'd love to see these guys run out and maintain the development side. NZ is making a profit at the moment, so why isn't it happening?
 

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