[2015 Super Rugby] All Blacks Watch - Preseason

[TRF Mr Fish]

I'm a bit behind the eight ball this year, but I figure that with the World Cup coming up at the end of the year the competition for places in the All Blacks will be as fierce as anything. It's unlikely we'll see any massive left field selections - the biggest unknowns probably lie at hooker and halfback.

Hooker
Number of spots: 3
Safe: Coles, Mealamu
Possible: Parsons, Elliot, Marshall
Wildcards: Harris, Coltman

Whilst Parsons is technically the incumbent, I think most people would suggest that's due more to being in the right place at the right time, as opposed to being the third best hooker in the country. That being said, it's a lot harder to get into the squad than to get out of it. Hika Elliot wasn't even supposed to be playing Super Rugby this year but now finds himself starting in the Chiefs' first game of the season. Marshall would have likely made the step up already if it weren't for the fact that his lineout throwing is very poor. He had a good season with Taranaki and will hopefully come right this year. If Harris returns from injury with enough time he may well find himself back in the NZ squad.

Prop
Number of spots: 5
Safe: Woodcock, Crockett, Franks, Faumuina
Possibilities: Moody, Franks
Wildcards: Hames, Toomaga-Allen, Tameifuna, Afeaki

Given the strengths of the four safe props it's likely that versatility will be a key factor in which of the above two make it into the squad. Moody has been a bit of a project for the last year or two, has he come a long enough way to oust Franks, who's been a mainstay in the team for a few years now?

Lock
Number of spots: 3/4
Safe: Whitelock, Retallick, Tuipulotu
Possibilities: Romano, Bird, Thrush
Wildcards: None

The selectors may opt to take only three specialist locks, allowing for six loose forwards. If that's the case then the above three players will all miss out. Romano has spent a lot of time with the All Blacks and were it not for a run of bad injuries he would likely have cemented his place already. Bird is great physical specimen but it may be a year too early. The selectors know that Thrush is a very reliable option but otherwise he doesn't possess the same traits as the other two players. It's hard to imagine anyone from outside this trio getting a look in.

Loose Forward
Number of spots: 5/6
Safe: McCaw, Kaino, Read, Cane, Messam
Possibilities: Vito, Luatua
Wildcards: Thomson, Squire

Again, whether or not an extra loose forward gets a look in will depend on how many specialist locks are required for the World Cup. The selectors may feel that Kaino and Vito/Luatua are good enough to back up the main trio of locks. Luatua is obviously a player of immense promise, but it may be that 2015 is not the World Cup for him. Vito has impressed in the last year or two and seems like the most suited backup to Read at 8. Someone like Blade Thomson could potentially have a chance if he has a good year for the Hurricanes. Squire spent time with the squad last year and is an All Black in waiting. Could he force his way in ahead of someone like Vito?

Halfback
Number of spots: 3
Safe: Smith, Perenara
Possibilities: Pulu, Ellis
Wildcards: Weber, Cowan, Kerr-Barlow

If it was up to me, Weber would be starting every week for the Chiefs and would have the third halfback spot sewn up. Thankfully I'm not an All Blacks selector, so the end result is likely to be a lot less exciting. Pulu is the incumbent but isn't really convincing as an international halfback, he's a great impact player but would you want him on the field with a few minutes to go trying to hold off the opposition to win the World Cup? Which is where Ellis comes in. In a similar vein to Harris, Kerr-Barlow could potentially make a return before the end of the season.

First Five
Number of spots: 3/4
Safe: Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Possibilities: Slade
Wildcards: None

Contrary to suggestions from the media I'd be astounded if all three of Carter, Cruden and Barrett don't make the squad. Even if Carter has a poor season he will be brought into the All Blacks to see what he can do. Cruden has lead the team round for the last year or so and, apart from the odd case of the yips, has been very effective. Someone like Slade could still make the squad, of course, but it would likely be more as a utility back than a specialist first five. If he did, it would likely be at the expense of one of the outside backs, not one of the other 10's.

Centre
Number of spots: 3/4/5
Safe: Nonu, Smith, Williams
Possibilities: Crotty, Fekitoa
Wildcards: Tamanivalu, Ngatai, Saili

It's likely the squad will have four specialist centres. Crotty is a very dependable option but Fekitoa is obviously an x-factor player. Both can play either 12 or 13, a lot will likely depend on how effective Fekitoa is for the Highlanders this season. Will second year syndrome hit, possibly simply as a result of teams putting more attention on him? A player who is more of a combination of the above two is Charlie Ngatai who has come a long way in the last 18 months. Ngatai seems like the kind of player who would step up to test level with ease.

Outside Backs
Number of spots: 4/5
Safe: Savea, Smith
Possibilities: Dagg, Piutau, Jane, Gear
Wildcards: Visinia

It would be a huge call to drop Dagg from the squad altogether, but with Barrett, Smith, Piutau and potentially Slade all around, could we see it happen? It looks like Piutau will be spending a lot of time on the wing this season, which will help his chances at the top level. Jane will need to prove himself in Super Rugby this year given his fairly disappointing return to the All Blacks last season. The Chiefs will give Gear ample opportunity to show that he belongs back in the top flight, he would be an ideal back up to Savea.

Expected 31 Man Squad
Hookers (3): Coles, Mealamu, Marshall
Props (5): Woodcock, Crockett, Franks, Faumuina, Moody
Locks (4): Retallick, Whitelock, Tuipulotu, Romano
Loose Forwards (5): McCaw, Read, Cane, Kaino, Messam
Halfbacks (3): Smith, Perenara, Ellis
First Fives (4): Carter, Cruden, Barrett, Slade
Centres (3): Nonu, Williams, Smith
Outside Backs (4): Smith, Savea, Piutau, Jane

That's... not very exciting really, is it?

 

[nickdnz]

No matter how poorly Dagg performs I think he's going to be selected for the RWC squad. The coaches seem to love him too much.

You're final squad is exactly what I'd predict (although not really what I'd hope to see). I'd prefer Thrush over Romano and think he may be chosen ahead of him, or we see Luatua selected as additional lock cover (I'd also prefer Dominic Bird over Romano). Slight chance of James Broadhurst being a bolter maybe, again who I'd prefer over Romano...

I think its anyones guess who makes that third hooker spot.

Would obviously love to see Hosea Gear included in this squad..

 

[ENZED-88]

Would like to see Luatua pick up a spot in the squad, he's a versatile player with one more season of super rugby to develop, Visinia has the goods but I think it might be a year to early for him. I agree with Nick though Thrush over Ramano any day.

 

[Shaggy]

Thrush certainly impressed on the end of year tour, but I think I'll wait and see whose left standing later in the year, before I predict who will be in and who won't.

I'm not convinced that and of the half backs other than Smith, as none of the others have really stepped up yet (I'd have Ellis as the second choice TBH)

 

[nzlizard]

Not convinced Nonu is safe, I reckon he had a pretty average year last year and if he doesn't improve this year would be hard to pick him if Crotty and Fekitoa have another awesome season.

3rd hooker is such as unknown, who knows what they want in that role, at least someone who can throw the ball straight.

As is 3rd Halfback.

Carter with a slight injury in his 1st game doesn't look good for him to last a season.

Can't see Dagg been dropped no matter how **** he is, they just love him.

If Gear has a good season he should edge out Jane who is solid these days but not the Jane of old.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Without doing a full update it's interesting to see how things have changed after five full rounds.

Hooker:
I think we can rule out Rhys Marshall. After one week he was dropped from the Chiefs' 23 and hasn't been sighted since. This can likely be put down to his poor performance at set piece in week 1, which had the potential to lose the Chiefs the match against the Blues. In contrast, the player who has probably made the most gains is Hika Elliot who has looked very solid for the Chiefs so far. Parsons hasn't proven that he should retain the third hooker spot and elsewhere around the country Motu Matu'u has only just returned from injury and Ash Dixon and Liam Coltman are swapping week in and week out down at the Highlanders.

Prop:
I don't think anything has changed elsewhere in the front row. Charlie Faumuina has looked good for the Blues, so it's really a straight shoot out between Ben Franks and Joe Moody.

Lock:
Dominic Bird hasn't been sighted much down at the Crusaders whilst rookie Scott Barrett has started his Super Rugby career well. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the two shift teams next year. The drums have slowly started beating in the (primarily English) media for Matt Symons from the Chiefs, but even if he was the next best cab of the ranks he's not yet eligible for the All Blacks. All that being said, at this point in time it remains a two horse race between Luke Romano and Jeremy Thrush (who has yet to feature due to injury).

Loose Forward
I think we would be totally fine with either Victor Vito or Steven Luatua taking the sixth loosie spot (if there is one available). Luatua has been very good so far this season which is a welcome sight. Otherwise I can't see any other players forcing their way into the team.

Halfback
As big a question now as it was at the start of the season. You'd have to think that if the squad was being selected tomorrow then Andy Ellis would get the nod. Were we looking to the future then perhaps Augustine Pulu (or Brad Weber) would be the way forward, but at a World Cup what you really want is experience.

First Five
There's not a lot to say here. Carter has been injured and is now likely to spend a large portion of the season at 12, which is a bit irritating. Regardless of what people have said, I'd be completely flabbergasted if any of Carter, Cruden or Barrett didn't make it. Lima Sopoaga may look elsewhere next year given he probably won't feature for the All Blacks any time soon, but would deserve a call up if he can tighten up his game a bit. Damian McKenzie has done well in the small amount of game time he has amassed.

Midfield
Malakai Fekitoa is showing no signs of stalling after last year's breakthrough season, you'd have to think that he'll get the nod ahead of Ryan Crotty at this point in time. Probably one of the players to make the biggest strides so far this season is Charlie Ngatai, but given the depth in the midfield we're probably more likely to see him earn his black jersey next year.

Outside Backs
There's always time for a new wing or fullback to force their way into the squad. Israel Dagg has only lasted one half of rugby so far this season but is unlikely to be forced out of the squad given he has been the first choice fullback for the last five years. Charles Piutau has looked sharp at the Blues (even if he has only had one match at the back) and will probably take the fourth outside back spot. If there's room for one more then I think it'll come down to a choice between Cory Jane (the old) and James Lowe (the new). They're very similar players and wing is a position where selectors often don't pay as much attention to experience as other spots on the field. Otherwise Nehe Milner-Skudder has performed well for the Hurricanes in his two matches so far (but may be a season away still) and Patrick Osborne has been touted in the media as a potential option too (though he's not even close to being a complete winger) whilst Bryce Heem has also impressed. Lolagi Visinia will become an All Black eventually.

Potential Squad
Hooker - Coles, Mealamu, Elliot
Prop - Franks, Faumuina, Woodcock, Crockett, Moody
Lock - Retallick, Whitelock, Tuipulotu, Romano
Loose Forward - Kaino, Cane, McCaw, Read, Messam
Halfback - Smith, Perenara, Ellis
First Five - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Midfield - Nonu, Smith, Williams, Fekitoa
Outside Back - Savea, Smith, Piutau, Dagg

 

[Shaggy]

Without doing a full update it's interesting to see how things have changed after five full rounds.

Hooker:
I think we can rule out Rhys Marshall. After one week he was dropped from the Chiefs' 23 and hasn't been sighted since. This can likely be put down to his poor performance at set piece in week 1, which had the potential to lose the Chiefs the match against the Blues. In contrast, the player who has probably made the most gains is Hika Elliot who has looked very solid for the Chiefs so far. Parsons hasn't proven that he should retain the third hooker spot and elsewhere around the country Motu Matu'u has only just returned from injury and Ash Dixon and Liam Coltman are swapping week in and week out down at the Highlanders.

Prop:
I don't think anything has changed elsewhere in the front row. Charlie Faumuina has looked good for the Blues, so it's really a straight shoot out between Ben Franks and Joe Moody.

Lock:
Dominic Bird hasn't been sighted much down at the Crusaders whilst rookie Scott Barrett has started his Super Rugby career well. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the two shift teams next year. The drums have slowly started beating in the (primarily English) media for Matt Symons from the Chiefs, but even if he was the next best cab of the ranks he's not yet eligible for the All Blacks. All that being said, at this point in time it remains a two horse race between Luke Romano and Jeremy Thrush (who has yet to feature due to injury).

Loose Forward
I think we would be totally fine with either Victor Vito or Steven Luatua taking the sixth loosie spot (if there is one available). Luatua has been very good so far this season which is a welcome sight. Otherwise I can't see any other players forcing their way into the team.

Halfback
As big a question now as it was at the start of the season. You'd have to think that if the squad was being selected tomorrow then Andy Ellis would get the nod. Were we looking to the future then perhaps Augustine Pulu (or Brad Weber) would be the way forward, but at a World Cup what you really want is experience.

First Five
There's not a lot to say here. Carter has been injured and is now likely to spend a large portion of the season at 12, which is a bit irritating. Regardless of what people have said, I'd be completely flabbergasted if any of Carter, Cruden or Barrett didn't make it. Lima Sopoaga may look elsewhere next year given he probably won't feature for the All Blacks any time soon, but would deserve a call up if he can tighten up his game a bit. Damian McKenzie has done well in the small amount of game time he has amassed.

Midfield
Malakai Fekitoa is showing no signs of stalling after last year's breakthrough season, you'd have to think that he'll get the nod ahead of Ryan Crotty at this point in time. Probably one of the players to make the biggest strides so far this season is Charlie Ngatai, but given the depth in the midfield we're probably more likely to see him earn his black jersey next year.

Outside Backs
There's always time for a new wing or fullback to force their way into the squad. Israel Dagg has only lasted one half of rugby so far this season but is unlikely to be forced out of the squad given he has been the first choice fullback for the last five years. Charles Piutau has looked sharp at the Blues (even if he has only had one match at the back) and will probably take the fourth outside back spot. If there's room for one more then I think it'll come down to a choice between Cory Jane (the old) and James Lowe (the new). They're very similar players and wing is a position where selectors often don't pay as much attention to experience as other spots on the field. Otherwise Nehe Milner-Skudder has performed well for the Hurricanes in his two matches so far (but may be a season away still) and Patrick Osborne has been touted in the media as a potential option too (though he's not even close to being a complete winger) whilst Bryce Heem has also impressed. Lolagi Visinia will become an All Black eventually.

Potential Squad
Hooker - Coles, Mealamu, Elliot
Prop - Franks, Faumuina, Woodcock, Crockett, Moody
Lock - Retallick, Whitelock, Tuipulotu, Romano
Loose Forward - Kaino, Cane, McCaw, Read, Messam
Halfback - Smith, Perenara, Ellis
First Five - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Midfield - Nonu, Smith, Williams, Fekitoa
Outside Back - Savea, Smith, Piutau, Dagg

I guess it depends on injuries, and what the forwards v backs numbers will be, but I think I would find room for Colin Slade (possibly at the expense of Moody). Slade has shown he can be used as a utility, and is probably the most consistent goal kicker, so if he's not in the squad, he'll certainly be on speed dial, should an injury occur.

Of course, it's too early to tell who'll be there ... last week Cruden's form wasn't good enough (in some quarters), and he wasn't going to make the squad, and the week before that, we should have apparently discarded DC, as his body and form wasn't up to it.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

If I were an AB selector I'd go

Potential Squad
Hooker - Coles, Mealamu, Elliot
Prop - Franks, Faumuina, Woodcock, Crockett, Moody
Lock - Retallick, Whitelock, Tuipulotu, Thrush
Loose Forward - Kaino, Cane, McCaw, Read, Messam
Halfback - Smith, Perenara, Ellis
First Five - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Midfield - Smith, Williams, Fekitoa, Crotty
Outside Back - Savea, Smith, Piutau, Lowe

 

[austingtir]

One player that has surprised me a bit is Hika Elliot. Honestly I never rated him something about him not seeming mentally right for internationals bugged me about him. But since his injury the last few games atleast he's actually been rather impressive. When it comes to props and Hookers maturity counts for alot. Hence why Tamifuna is still nowhere near an AB jersey.

If he can keeps consistent he could well be hard not to pick.

 

[Turbonation]

Hooker- Coles, Mealamu, Elliot

Props- Woodcock, Franks, Faumuina, Franks, Crockett

Locks- Retallick, Whitelock, Tuipulotu, Romano

Loose Forwards- McCaw, Read, Kaino, Cane, Messam

Halfbacks- Smith, Perenara, Ellis

First Five- Carter, Cruden, Barrett

Midfield- Smith, Nonu, Williams

Outside Backs- Savea, Smith, Jane, Piutau, Lowe

 

[Icemn]

we need to get Malakai in there!!! can we drop Nonu maybe

 

[MotherRucker1]

That's a bit unfair to say Dagg isn't playing well, but tout Patrick Osborne as anywhere near All Blacks worthy. Osborne is good when the team has momentum, but he also does a lot of stupid things too. Also lacks the pace for the next level.

 

[William18]

I don't think Nonu should have been a certainty at the start of the season after a poor 2014. I don't think you can leave him out given how he has played in 2015. I suppose if you are going to play SBW ahead of Nonu then it doesn't make much sense to have Nonu in the squad. I don't think Nonu would provide a lot of impact from the bench and he can only play one position these days.

Calls for James Lowe are a little bit pre mature.

 

[austingtir]

I reckon Nonu would be a bigger loss than Conrad Smith at this point in time....

I dont know what some of the above posters have been seeing but from my point of view iv seen SBW do sweet #@#^ all so far in this SR tournament. In the 2011 WC tournament he was behind Nonu at the gritty end of the tournament and iv seen nothing since then that would make Hansen see it any different.


Nonu has more useful skills imo when he does kick or chip through they are usually fantastic tactical kicks. SBW is simply not capable of some of the intricate skills Nonu has developed over the last 6 years or so.

SBW's got to play his way into the starting 15 and atm he's nowhere near it.



And for mine Conrad is very suspect against anyone getting on the outside of him who's really quick if he doesnt read it right straight away. Thats not to say I wouldnt pick him as first choice of course... just stating what I think is a fact about his game.

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Im dying to see the Saders game against the bulls but cant find replay.... How did carter go in that game?

 

[nickdnz]

And for mine Conrad is very suspect against anyone getting on the outside of him who's really quick if he doesnt read it right straight away. Thats not to say I wouldnt pick him as first choice of course... just stating what I think is a fact about his game.

Based on what? I can think of one occasion when someone has got on the outside of him. As it is he's tackling at over 92% - and he's organizing the back line defense better than anyone in the world (which is probably why we're seeing Nonu not drop off so many tackles). I think the difference between Nonu playing well for the Canes and sucking for everyone is entirely based on Conrad Smith - so I'd pick Conrad as still much more important to the team. As great as Fekitoa is - he's tackling at just over 71% (normally he has good defense but its been a bit more shaky this season) - so comparred to anyone in New Zealand Conrad Smiths defensive organization and technique is second to none, so very strange trying to call him out on it..

 

[MotherRucker1]

SBW is another one who is great on the front foot, especially close to the line, imo. But if the pressure is on, or the Chiefs aren't going so well, or if he's the man defending the line .. I wouldn't be comfortable relying on him. I think I saw him do something last week or against the Stormers where he offloaded successfully to score a try. Sometimes his handling or ball retention can be poor though. Sometimes the offload is excellent, but you also gotta know when to hold em, as Kenny Rogers would say.
I wouldn't rate him over Nonu. To be honest, I think there's quite a lot of unwarranted hype there.

 

[austingtir]

Based on what? I can think of one occasion when someone has got on the outside of him. As it is he's tackling at over 92% - and he's organizing the back line defense better than anyone in the world (which is probably why we're seeing Nonu not drop off so many tackles). I think the difference between Nonu playing well for the Canes and sucking for everyone is entirely based on Conrad Smith - so I'd pick Conrad as still much more important to the team. As great as Fekitoa is - he's tackling at just over 71% (normally he has good defense but its been a bit more shaky this season) - so comparred to anyone in New Zealand Conrad Smiths defensive organization and technique is second to none, so very strange trying to call him out on it..

I just honestly think speed is the only weak point to his game. If teams smarten up like England and put a winger one on one with him most times Conrad is going to nail them but if they play their cards right like England did he might not. He was clearly done for pace big time in that game and its certainly not the only time I have seen that happen to him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJtki1OB16g 1:36.42 but i'll give him the benefit of the doubt because I suspect he was left trying to mark Osbourne and Fekitoa. If he reads stuff wrong he's in trouble just like any other player.. thing is he usualy reads it right and before anyone else.

I have been saying for years now that teams are not exploiting our weaknesses (they are either stupid or not capable of it). I just hope that it doesnt all come together for some int side at the end of the year.

Its the same thing with Aaron smith if our forward pack gets beaten up he struggles big time. The good thing is Peranara is showing signs of picking his game up and he is incredibly valuable as he's way way stronger than A Smith obviously.

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we need to get Malakai in there!!! can we drop Nonu maybe

Malakai is still benched against the big sides imo. Nonu owned him in that last game and im actually sad to say that as I reackon Malakai is the future.

 

[MotherRucker1]

I would agree with most of that, Austin. There have been a few weeks this year where I thought, Conrad's still a threatening player with ball in hand, but his speed or a certain something when he's attacking seems to be lacking. Don't get me wrong, I'd still take him over an SBW or some numb skull who is less reliable. After all, Conrad Smith is probably the best defensive back we have in the country. Just the sort of player who is like Ben Smith, always Mr Reliable and you'll seldom seeing him do anything wrong. And at the top level, that's what you want. And he's getting older, so gotta acknowledge that.

Also agree about Peranara stepping up this year. I'm sure I've seen him take a few more snipes with the ball this year, and he seems to be tracking well. Let's not get too carried away though, he does have an immensely talented and in-form team around him. And while Boyd isn't great, Plumtree is beyond handy to have. He's got a long way to go before he could even lace Aaron Smith's boot laces though, imo. I haven't trolled through the stats to prove these points so I might be wrong, but that's just how it seems to me whenever I tune in.