Menu
Forums
New posts
Search forums
What's new
New posts
Latest activity
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles and first posts only
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Help Support The Rugby Forum :
Forums
Rugby Union
Super Rugby
[2015 Super Rugby] The Run Home
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="TRF Mr Fish" data-source="post: 725750" data-attributes="member: 20892"><p>We're into the last four rounds of the regular season before we progress to the inevitable farce that is the Super Rugby finals.</p><p></p><p>Whilst ten teams are still technically in contention, we can probably narrow it down to eight - the Hurricanes, Chiefs, Highlanders, Brumbies, Bulls, Waratahs, Stormers and Crusaders. I don't think many would predict that the Lions or Rebels (especially) will be able to bank enough points to make the finals.</p><p></p><p>So, without further ado, here are the contenders.</p><p></p><p>Hurricanes</p><p>Points: 52</p><p>Current position: 1st</p><p>Games remaining: Blues (A), Crusaders (A), Highlanders (H), Chiefs (A)</p><p></p><p>The Hurricanes are all but guaranteed that top spot, it would take a small miracle for another team to oust them given how many points they've earned and how well they've played all season. That being said, they have arguably the hardest run in of any team. Three of their opponents are competing for a spot in the finals and the Blues are performing a lot better than they did at the start of the season and are yet to lose a match at Eden Park. Most likely the Hurricanes will win at least two of their final four matches, however, which should see them end with the most points any team has managed in the history of Super Rugby (if you remove the 8 points teams used to get for byes).</p><p></p><p>Likely finishing position: 1st</p><p></p><p>Chiefs</p><p>Points: 44</p><p>Current position: 4th</p><p>Games remaining: Highlanders (A), Reds (A), Hurricanes (H)</p><p></p><p>The Chiefs have gone pretty well this season and even if they were to lose their remaining three games they will likely still make it through to the playoffs. Two victories would probably see them sew up 4th spot. All three matches are winnable, but the Chiefs have never done well against the Australian teams so even the Reds match could be a difficult one. If the Chiefs were able to win all three of their matches and the Hurricanes ended their season with a run of losses then the Chiefs could actually steal first, but I don't think anyone would be betting on that at this point in time.</p><p></p><p>Likely finishing position: 4th</p><p></p><p>Highlanders</p><p>Points: 39</p><p>Current position: 5th</p><p>Games remaining: Force (A), Chiefs (H), Hurricanes (A), Blues (A)</p><p></p><p>The biggest issue the Highlanders have is that they still need to rest their All Black contingent of Smith, Smith and Fekitoa. I think they'll wait until the last two games of the season before they leave these guys off the team sheet - the Chiefs match will be a major factor in who ends up in 4th place. Like with the other teams, it is entirely foreseeable that the Highlanders could lose all four of their remaining matches - they've never done well against the Force and the Blues are on the up. I'd be surprised if the Highlanders fell off the pace so much and missed out on the playoffs altogether, however. Two wins in their final matches is achievable.</p><p></p><p>Likely finishing position: 6th</p><p></p><p>Brumbies</p><p>Points: 38</p><p>Current position: 2nd</p><p>Games remaining: Bulls (H), Force (A), Crusaders (H)</p><p></p><p>The Brumbies have done enough against the weaker teams this year to put then in pole position for the last few weeks of the season. However, whilst their run in is one of the easier ones of the contenders, they've struggled against top teams this year so nothing is a given. The Bulls will be tiring from their Australasian tour and the Force have been hit and miss so far, but if the Crusaders are still in contention for the play offs come the last week then that will be a mighty clash, which could decided the Brumbies' fate. </p><p></p><p>Likely finishing position: 5th</p><p></p><p>Bulls</p><p>Points: 35</p><p>Current position: 3rd</p><p>Games remaining: Brumbies (A), Rebels (A), Cheetahs (H)</p><p></p><p>Like the Brumbies, the Bulls have a relatively easy finish to the season. Also like the Brumbies, they only have three matches left so need to win at least two of them to have any chance of making the finals. There is a very real possibility that they could lose all three of their matches, and by the team they're back in the Republic they may find they're too far behind the eight ball for their last match to matter too much. Their 35 points likely won't be enough for them to grab a play off spot in the wildcard position, so they will need to take out their conference, which is hard to see happening when you compare their remaining matches to the Stormers'.</p><p></p><p>Likely finishing position: 8th</p><p></p><p>Waratahs</p><p>Points: 36</p><p>Current position: 6th</p><p>Games remaining: Crusaders (H), Lions (A), Cheetahs (A), Reds (H)</p><p></p><p>The Waratahs are yet to head to the Republic, but they have arguably the easiest tour of any team in the competition (there would have been no arguments at the start of the season about it, that's for sure). Their hopes of doing the double could well be decided tonight against the Crusaders. If they win, then they will be in a very good position to take out the Australian conference. If they lose, then they'll go to South Africa with a shadow hanging over them. The Reds/Waratahs matches can go either way, but at home the Waratahs should be too strong and they'll be playing for too much. Three victories is a good target for the Waratahs and should see them make the top six.</p><p></p><p>Likely finishing position: 3rd</p><p></p><p>Stormers</p><p>Points: 34</p><p>Current position: 7th</p><p>Games remaining: Rebels (H), Cheetahs (H), Lions (H), Sharks (A)</p><p></p><p>The Stormers have four matches remaining, none of which are against ***le contenders. That doesn't mean they are easy matches, but they certainly have a lot to play for and should realistically win all their upcoming matches. Derby matches can be difficult, but the Cheetahs and the Lions both in Cape Town should leave no excuses for the Stormers to not leap frog the Bulls and clinch the top spot in the South African conference. Their last match against the Sharks may well be the hardest, especially if Pat Lambie is back, but they'll know by the time the match rolls around what they need to do to book their ticket in the finals.</p><p></p><p>Likely finishing position: 2nd</p><p></p><p>Crusaders</p><p>Points: 31</p><p>Current position: 9th</p><p>Games remaining: Waratahs (A), Hurricanes (H), Blues (A), Brumbies (A)</p><p></p><p>This is one of the hardest run ins to the end of the season, purely in terms of who the opposition teams are. The Crusaders aren't sitting on enough points to cruise into the finals either, they need to win matches. So why then, are they still in contention, ahead of the Lions? If the Crusaders can win against either the Brumbies and Waratahs then they will likely knock out that team from the play offs. They'll be at home to the Hurricanes and want to get revenge for their loss in Wellington, and if they're still in with a chance when they hit Eden Park then you can bet your bottom dollar that they will throw everything at the Blues. That being said, it is still an incredibly hard challenge they have ahead of them. Do I think they'll manage it? No, but if any team can, then it's the Crusaders.</p><p></p><p>Likely finishing position: 7th</p><p></p><p>So my final standings I've predicted are:</p><p>1 Hurricanes</p><p>2 Stormers</p><p>3 Waratahs</p><p>4 Chiefs</p><p>5 Brumbies</p><p>6 Highlanders</p><p>7 Crusaders</p><p>8 Bulls</p><p></p><p>Which would leave us with qualifying finals in Sydney (Waratahs v Highlanders) and Hamilton (Chiefs v Brumbies).</p><p></p><p>Thoughts?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="TRF Mr Fish, post: 725750, member: 20892"] We're into the last four rounds of the regular season before we progress to the inevitable farce that is the Super Rugby finals. Whilst ten teams are still technically in contention, we can probably narrow it down to eight - the Hurricanes, Chiefs, Highlanders, Brumbies, Bulls, Waratahs, Stormers and Crusaders. I don't think many would predict that the Lions or Rebels (especially) will be able to bank enough points to make the finals. So, without further ado, here are the contenders. Hurricanes Points: 52 Current position: 1st Games remaining: Blues (A), Crusaders (A), Highlanders (H), Chiefs (A) The Hurricanes are all but guaranteed that top spot, it would take a small miracle for another team to oust them given how many points they've earned and how well they've played all season. That being said, they have arguably the hardest run in of any team. Three of their opponents are competing for a spot in the finals and the Blues are performing a lot better than they did at the start of the season and are yet to lose a match at Eden Park. Most likely the Hurricanes will win at least two of their final four matches, however, which should see them end with the most points any team has managed in the history of Super Rugby (if you remove the 8 points teams used to get for byes). Likely finishing position: 1st Chiefs Points: 44 Current position: 4th Games remaining: Highlanders (A), Reds (A), Hurricanes (H) The Chiefs have gone pretty well this season and even if they were to lose their remaining three games they will likely still make it through to the playoffs. Two victories would probably see them sew up 4th spot. All three matches are winnable, but the Chiefs have never done well against the Australian teams so even the Reds match could be a difficult one. If the Chiefs were able to win all three of their matches and the Hurricanes ended their season with a run of losses then the Chiefs could actually steal first, but I don't think anyone would be betting on that at this point in time. Likely finishing position: 4th Highlanders Points: 39 Current position: 5th Games remaining: Force (A), Chiefs (H), Hurricanes (A), Blues (A) The biggest issue the Highlanders have is that they still need to rest their All Black contingent of Smith, Smith and Fekitoa. I think they'll wait until the last two games of the season before they leave these guys off the team sheet - the Chiefs match will be a major factor in who ends up in 4th place. Like with the other teams, it is entirely foreseeable that the Highlanders could lose all four of their remaining matches - they've never done well against the Force and the Blues are on the up. I'd be surprised if the Highlanders fell off the pace so much and missed out on the playoffs altogether, however. Two wins in their final matches is achievable. Likely finishing position: 6th Brumbies Points: 38 Current position: 2nd Games remaining: Bulls (H), Force (A), Crusaders (H) The Brumbies have done enough against the weaker teams this year to put then in pole position for the last few weeks of the season. However, whilst their run in is one of the easier ones of the contenders, they've struggled against top teams this year so nothing is a given. The Bulls will be tiring from their Australasian tour and the Force have been hit and miss so far, but if the Crusaders are still in contention for the play offs come the last week then that will be a mighty clash, which could decided the Brumbies' fate. Likely finishing position: 5th Bulls Points: 35 Current position: 3rd Games remaining: Brumbies (A), Rebels (A), Cheetahs (H) Like the Brumbies, the Bulls have a relatively easy finish to the season. Also like the Brumbies, they only have three matches left so need to win at least two of them to have any chance of making the finals. There is a very real possibility that they could lose all three of their matches, and by the team they're back in the Republic they may find they're too far behind the eight ball for their last match to matter too much. Their 35 points likely won't be enough for them to grab a play off spot in the wildcard position, so they will need to take out their conference, which is hard to see happening when you compare their remaining matches to the Stormers'. Likely finishing position: 8th Waratahs Points: 36 Current position: 6th Games remaining: Crusaders (H), Lions (A), Cheetahs (A), Reds (H) The Waratahs are yet to head to the Republic, but they have arguably the easiest tour of any team in the competition (there would have been no arguments at the start of the season about it, that's for sure). Their hopes of doing the double could well be decided tonight against the Crusaders. If they win, then they will be in a very good position to take out the Australian conference. If they lose, then they'll go to South Africa with a shadow hanging over them. The Reds/Waratahs matches can go either way, but at home the Waratahs should be too strong and they'll be playing for too much. Three victories is a good target for the Waratahs and should see them make the top six. Likely finishing position: 3rd Stormers Points: 34 Current position: 7th Games remaining: Rebels (H), Cheetahs (H), Lions (H), Sharks (A) The Stormers have four matches remaining, none of which are against ***le contenders. That doesn't mean they are easy matches, but they certainly have a lot to play for and should realistically win all their upcoming matches. Derby matches can be difficult, but the Cheetahs and the Lions both in Cape Town should leave no excuses for the Stormers to not leap frog the Bulls and clinch the top spot in the South African conference. Their last match against the Sharks may well be the hardest, especially if Pat Lambie is back, but they'll know by the time the match rolls around what they need to do to book their ticket in the finals. Likely finishing position: 2nd Crusaders Points: 31 Current position: 9th Games remaining: Waratahs (A), Hurricanes (H), Blues (A), Brumbies (A) This is one of the hardest run ins to the end of the season, purely in terms of who the opposition teams are. The Crusaders aren't sitting on enough points to cruise into the finals either, they need to win matches. So why then, are they still in contention, ahead of the Lions? If the Crusaders can win against either the Brumbies and Waratahs then they will likely knock out that team from the play offs. They'll be at home to the Hurricanes and want to get revenge for their loss in Wellington, and if they're still in with a chance when they hit Eden Park then you can bet your bottom dollar that they will throw everything at the Blues. That being said, it is still an incredibly hard challenge they have ahead of them. Do I think they'll manage it? No, but if any team can, then it's the Crusaders. Likely finishing position: 7th So my final standings I've predicted are: 1 Hurricanes 2 Stormers 3 Waratahs 4 Chiefs 5 Brumbies 6 Highlanders 7 Crusaders 8 Bulls Which would leave us with qualifying finals in Sydney (Waratahs v Highlanders) and Hamilton (Chiefs v Brumbies). Thoughts? [/QUOTE]
Verification
Post reply
Forums
Rugby Union
Super Rugby
[2015 Super Rugby] The Run Home
Top