[2017 RBS Six Nations] Round 4: Wales v Ireland (11/02/2017)

Leonormous Boozer · Mar 13, 2017

I think if Wales win by 15 + and we lose they get top seeds, that's an uneducated guess looking at points and having a very basic idea of how they work though.

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MikeTheNative said:
I also wonder if France lose whether they will fall to 9th? Someone a lot clever than me, please work out the ranking points.

They definitely will.

mosfeldt · Mar 13, 2017

How much of a difference does being 5-8 make for WC draws?

Leonormous Boozer · Mar 13, 2017

mosfeldt said:
How much of a difference does being 5-8 make for WC draws?

1-4 is top seed, 5-8 is second. In the 4 20 team tournaments three 2nd seeds and a 3rd seed have won their pool, England in '03, Ireland in '11 and '15 and Argentina in '07 as third seeds, a top seed has never failed to escape their group.

Wendigo7 · Mar 13, 2017

There is a very odd situation that 99% won't play out but it could.

If both England and France win by 16pts plus, the following table looks like this:

Now, what happens here for the top seeded pot?

France and Ireland are ranked exactly the same... who goes into pot 1?? (play off...

)

N

ncurd

Hall of Fame

TRF Legend

Mar 13, 2017

#385

MikeTheNative said:
I also wonder if France lose whether they will fall to 9th? Someone a lot clever than me, please work out the ranking points.

I think if France lose by 16 points or more they will.

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Mind you the 9th place team (now Argetina/Scotland are no longer whipping boys) is why the RWC needs some editing. I'm not a fan of group of deaths unless they are all equally hard to get out of. England were a laughing stock last time only through the luck of the draw other groups (and exceptionally poor run of games by Wales 4 years ago) they would have easially walk out of the others as did the other top nations (although SA made a good job trying).

The fact that one group could have Argentina/France, NZ & SA and one of those teams don't make the knock out stage is not good for the sport when the other 3 groups will be a doddle (if all 4 were hard it would actually make things interesting).

M

MikeTheNative

First XV

TRF Legend

Mar 13, 2017

#386

I agree it's stupid having 3 relatively easy groups then one 'group of death'. Thing is you can't let more teams in as the lesser one are getting hammered as it is, nobody wants to see 100+ thrashings.

Leonormous Boozer

Fat Boi

TRF Legend

TRF Supporter

Mar 13, 2017

#387

ncurd said:
I think if France lose by 16 points or more they will.

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Mind you the 9th place team (now Argetina/Scotland are no longer whipping boys) is why the RWC needs some editing. I'm not a fan of group of deaths unless they are all equally hard to get out of. England were a laughing stock last time only through the luck of the draw other groups (and exceptionally poor run of games by Wales 4 years ago) they would have easially walk out of the others as did the other top nations (although SA made a good job trying).

The fact that one group could have Argentina/France, NZ & SA and one of those teams don't make the knock out stage is not good for the sport when the other 3 groups will be a doddle (if all 4 were hard it would actually make things interesting).

2015 - two 3rd seeds escape their group, 1 2nd seed wins theirs, all 1st seeds go through.
2011 - No third seed side escape their pool, two 2nd seeds win theirs, all 1st seeds go through. (England were 2nd seeds here too!)
2007 - two 3rd seeds escape their pool with one winning theirs, all 1st seeds do, I can't find out whether England or SA were 1st seeds so a second seed may have won.
2003 - 1 second seed win their pool, not sure whether Ireland or Argentina were third seeds, all 1st seeds escape.

So under the current format there's approximately a 25% chance of escaping as a third seed and a 100% chance as a 1st seed with a 66%+ chance of winning it. There was nothing really new about the pool of death in the last RWC, its just that the two hosts and another big English speaking sider were involved that it got more attention.

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ncurd said:
I think if France lose by 16 points or more they will.

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Mind you the 9th place team (now Argetina/Scotland are no longer whipping boys) is why the RWC needs some editing. I'm not a fan of group of deaths unless they are all equally hard to get out of. England were a laughing stock last time only through the luck of the draw other groups (and exceptionally poor run of games by Wales 4 years ago) they would have easially walk out of the others as did the other top nations (although SA made a good job trying).

The fact that one group could have Argentina/France, NZ & SA and one of those teams don't make the knock out stage is not good for the sport when the other 3 groups will be a doddle (if all 4 were hard it would actually make things interesting).

2015 - two 3rd seeds escape their group, 1 2nd seed wins theirs, all 1st seeds go through.
2011 - No third seed side escape their pool, two 2nd seeds win theirs, all 1st seeds go through. (England were 2nd seeds here too!)
2007 - two 3rd seeds escape their pool with one winning theirs, all 1st seeds do, I can't find out whether England or SA were 1st seeds so a second seed may have won.
2003 - 1 second seed win their pool, not sure whether Ireland or Argentina were third seeds, all 1st seeds escape.

So under the current format there's approximately a 25% chance of escaping as a third seed and a 100% chance as a 1st seed with a 66%+ chance of winning it. There was nothing really new about the pool of death in the last RWC, its just that the two hosts and another big English speaking sider were involved that it got more attention.

Goodey

Bench Player

Mar 13, 2017

#388

I more or less agree and if you want to win the World Cup then you have to be capable of stringing together big wins. Getting out of the pool of death is never a big ask for a side that's actually got a good shot at winning.

That said I think the 'top two from four pools' system is a relic of what world rugby looked like in the 90s and has been stuck with only because we were so used to having the top teams be the 8 five nations and tri nations teams. Having five teams in each pool has also led to unfair scheduling, particularly against the tier two sides, when getting proper rest is far more important than it used to be. A more suitable format for a world cup now would be five pools of four, with a similar format to the European Champion's Cup.

dullonien

International

TRF Legend

Mar 13, 2017

#389

MikeTheNative said:
I think they can but it involves both Ireland and Scotland losing. Even if if they couldn't the only way Howley makes changes is either injury or sickness.

I'm not sure of the actual permutations, but are you sure it would require Scotland losing? We're currently 6th, one behind Scotland, but only by 0.02 points. Even if Scotland thrash Italy, they'll gain very few tanking points because of how low Italy currently stand. We'll almost certainly gain more by beating France, even if by less than 15.

That brings us to Ireland. They would need to lose. With England being almost 8 points clear of Ireland though, Ireland are unlikely to lose too many even with a loss. Franc are less than a point behind us, which plays into out favour, as we'd gain more if we win, especially with it being away. We need ~ 1 point to overtake Ireland (depending on how much Ireland would actually lose if they lost), which mist be doable, just depends if that also required more than a 15 point win v France for the extra ranking points.

On the bus home from work ATM, but I'll work it out when I get home.

Edit. Another interesting permutation would be whether Scotland could overtake Ireland if Ireland & Wales lose.

I'm going to do some maths now....

Last edited: Mar 13, 2017

Goodey

Bench Player

Mar 13, 2017

#390

Wendigo7 said:

There is a very odd situation that 99% won't play out but it could.

If both England and France win by 16pts plus, the following table looks like this:

Now, what happens here for the top seeded pot?

France and Ireland are ranked exactly the same... who goes into pot 1?? (play off...

)
Ireland are above France here, the points are just rounded off to 2 decimal places.

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dullonien said:
I'm not sure of the actual permutations, but are you sure it would require Scotland losing? We're currently 6th, one behind Scotland, but only by 0.02 points. Even if Scotland thrash Italy, they'll gain very few tanking points because of how low Italy currently stand. We'll almost certainly gain more by beating France, even if by less than 15.

That brings us to Ireland. They would need to lose. With England being almost 8 points clear of Ireland though, Ireland are unlikely to lose too many even with a loss. Franc are less than a point behind us, which plays into out favour, as we'd gain more if we win, especially with it being away. We need ~ 1 point to overtake Ireland (depending on how much Ireland would actually lose if they lost), which mist be doable, just depends if that also required more than a 15 point win v France for the extra ranking points.

On the bus home from work ATM, but I'll work it out when I get home.

Edit. Another interesting permutation would be whether Scotland could overtake Ireland if Ireland & Wales lose.

I'm going to do some maths now....

It doesn't require Scotland losing. They are too far ahead of Italy in the rankings to gain any points from beating them.

For Wales to be in 4th they need to either beat France with Ireland losing, or beat France by 16+ with an Ireland-England draw.

rankings calculator: https://rawling.github.io/wr-calc/

dullonien

International

TRF Legend

Mar 13, 2017

#391

Goodey said:
Ireland are above France here, the points are just rounded off to 2 decimal places.

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It doesn't require Scotland losing. They are too far ahead of Italy in the rankings to gain any points from beating them.

For Wales to be in 4th they need to either beat France with Ireland losing, or beat France by 16+ with an Ireland-England draw.

rankings calculator: https://rawling.github.io/wr-calc/

Yup, just used the same calculator to come to the same conclusion.

Also Scotland can't overtake Ireland. The maximum points Ireland can drop is 0.77, which still puts them ahead by 0.12.

M

MikeTheNative

First XV

TRF Legend

Mar 14, 2017

#392

Disappointed by Edwards comments on the summer tour being the chance for the new faces not the France game.... despite the win getting more and more unhappy with the management.

ALJ

Academy Player

Mar 14, 2017

#393

MikeTheNative said:
Disappointed by Edwards comments on the summer tour being the chance for the new faces not the France game.... despite the win getting more and more unhappy with the management.

The above permutations in terms of the rankings might well be influencing this - The side is a little unpredictable right now but it seems sensible to think that their best chance in Paris comes from sticking with the current team.

Completely understand the desire for new blood but, as there's potentially a lot at stake in the last weekend, maybe it's not the right time to be starting that process.

M

MikeTheNative

First XV

TRF Legend

Mar 14, 2017

#394

ALJ said:
The above permutations in terms of the rankings might well be influencing this - The side is a little unpredictable right now but it seems sensible to think that their best chance in Paris comes from sticking with the current team.

Completely understand the desire for new blood but, as there's potentially a lot at stake in the last weekend, maybe it's not the right time to be starting that process.

You have to draw a line at some point though or new players would never get a chance, especially when some players are still being picked while out of form. I'm not calling for wholesale changes but the odd inclusion of a young player who is playing better than their counterpart.

dullonien

International

TRF Legend

Mar 14, 2017

#395

MikeTheNative said:
You have to draw a line at some point though or new players would never get a chance, especially when some players are still being picked while out of form. I'm not calling for wholesale changes but the odd inclusion of a young player who is playing better than their counterpart.

100% agree with you. It'd be nice to be in the top pool for the RWC draw, but it's far from essential if we actually have any aspirations to win the thing!

Those that played well v Ireland (which was the majority) deserve another go, but imo Biggar, Halfpenny & Baldwin were all poor in certain areas of their game + Faletau deserves a start to showcase what he's capable of after returning to fitness. Whilst Roberts did well when he came on, I still don't think he's the right player to occupy the 23 shirt either.

Rob Evans, Ken Owens, Tomas Francis
Charteris, AWJ
Warburton, Faletau, Tipuric

Webb, Davies
Williams, Davies
Evans/Giles, Williams, North

Dacey, Amith, Lee, Ball, Moriarty, A. Davies, Biggar, Halfpenny

That's be my side. Charteris and Faletau coming back into the pack allows them to prove their worth, with Ball and Moriarty tasked with producing an impact off the bench. Davies get's a chance at 10 to show if he can control a game from the off, and get more out of those outside him. Halfpenny get's a little kick up the backside + an opportunity to test one of two exciting players. I could understand Halfpenny being retained given the physicality of the French wingers, but at least shift Williams to fb. I'd also like to see Aled Davies on the bench over Gareth Davies.

ALJ

Academy Player

Mar 14, 2017

#396

MikeTheNative said:
You have to draw a line at some point though or new players would never get a chance, especially when some players are still being picked while out of form. I'm not calling for wholesale changes but the odd inclusion of a young player who is playing better than their counterpart.

I hear you, just proposing the counter argument really.

Traditionally speaking new players get blooded on summer tours and it's probably more the case these days given the level of scrutiny for any 'home' international.