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[2017 Super Rugby] Round 7: Sharks vs. Jaguares (08/04/2017)

TRF_heineken

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Venue: Growthpoint Kings Park
Time: 15:05 CAT (SA, GMT+2)

Teams

Sharks: 15 Garth April, 14 Kobus van Wyk, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Curwin Bosch, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Daniel du Preez, 7 Jean-Luc du Preez, 6 Tera Mtembu (captain), 5 Stephan Lewies, 4 Etienne Oosthuizen, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Franco Marais, 1 Beast Mtawarira

Substitutes: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Thomas du Toit, 18 Lourens Adriaanse, 19 Ruan Botha, 20 Philip van der Walt, 21 Michael Claassens, 22 Inny Radebe, 23 Jeremy Ward

Jaguares: TBA
 
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TRF_stormer2010

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Big match this in the context of the play-off spots. I suppose if the Sharks can resist getting sucked into the Jags' game they should be favorites.
 

unrated

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The Sharks and Jaguares has become direct rivals for that last qualifying spot. We should absolutely be winning this at home. It will be no easy game but it really is neccesary to win this as we still have a game against the Jaguares in Argentina that will be much tougher that the prospect coming up this weekend.

I fear our confidence might have been dented by the close loss at the weekend. Add the fact that the Jags are well rested and you set yourself up for a very close game. The game will be nothing like the one in Johannesburg . It's at sea level and extremely humid. Sweat and a slippery ball always has a huge influence on the game. The team that can kick their penalties and limits their infringements will have the best chance. Without Lambie it has thinned out the depth at fullback and I'm still not convinced with April. I hate to say this but our home ground in Durban just is not the right place to play running rugby as we have seen how knock ons come into play when teams try playing the ball.

Will be keenly awaiting the lineup announcements to get a better idea of how it might go down.
 

themole25

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i just want over/under on bosche kicks to become a thing
 

argie

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The 27-man Jaguares roster named for South Africa tour.

Forwards: Lucas Noguera Paz, Santiago García Botta, Agustín Creevy, Roberto Tejerizo, Felipe Arregui, Ramiro Herrera, Enrique Pieretto, Matías Alemanno, Guido Petti, Marcos Kremer, Pablo Matera, Tomás Lezana, Leonardo Senatore, Rodrigo Báez, Benjamín Macome

Backs: Gonzalo Betranou, Felipe Ezcurra, Nicolás Sánchez, Joaquín Díaz Bonilla, Jerónimo De la Fuente, Matías Orlando, Santiago González Iglesias, Emiliano Boffelli, Bautista Ezcurra, Ramiro Moyano, Santiago Cordero, Joaquín Tuculet
 

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Im going by jags for 5. They got confidence and got a few new players that are breaking tackles.
 

Bruce_ma_goose

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Hernandez not touring? Probably not a bad thing as he is becoming a luxury player in his old age. Should be a cracker with the Jaguares able to score against anyone and getting fitter (really only missing Landajo and Leguizamon now?)

Interesting to read about the humidity, last year with the Jaguares' overly ambitious offloading I think that would trouble them. This year they are so much more sensible and controlled with their offloading. If they can defend in their 22 like they do everywhere else then the Jaguares should sneak this. But I think they'll ship at least one soft try and it'll prove fatal. I was highly impressed by the highlights of the Sharks at the Lions and Lambie going down maybe isn't the disaster I was expecting.

Sharks by 5

- - - Updated - - -

Wow, I completely underestimated the Jaguares injury situation.

"The loss of Julián Montoya means the back-up hooker to Agustín Creevy is to be Loose Head prop Roberto Tejerizo. Still out injured are Martín Landajo, Tomás Lavanini, Juan Manuel Leguizamón, Manuel Montero, Matías Moroni and Javier Ortega Desio. Marcos Kremer will tour, doing so with a minor knee injury."

http://www.americasrugbynews.com/2017/04/03/up-and-under-87/
 
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Cruz_del_Sur

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Second most important game of the season for us. I am not worried about injuries to be honest. To be honest, people like Landajo and Montero will have to put up a hell of a fight to earn their spots back.
I am more worried about the sharks after what i saw last weekend. If they can play with that level of intensity, they should edge it, thou not by much. I am afraid indiscipline and the sharks are the team that doesn't blow your mind with brilliance but makes you pay, dearly, for your mistakes.

To be fair, we've had it quite easy so far. We've played either weaker teams, b-teams or similarly skilled teams but at home and we got consistently most of the 50-50 calls our way. The only game we werent favourites was against the stormers. This is the game where we need to rise to the occasion. If we wanna be competitive this is the game to prove it. We don't necessarily need to win to do that thou. We can afford to lose this game.
 

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From that list only Lavanini, Moroni and Desio are sensitive. Leguizamon should not even be in the squad, Montero is a fluke, Landajo has been replaced successfully. As for Tejerizo he will play only the last 20 so no biggies. Although losing Bosh the replacement was a bummer(he went to europe).

We actually cant lose this one, Cruz. Sharks are a direct competitor to a playoff spot. Bulls are a good chance to a win also. Lions are possible a loss. Taking this in account losing against sharks could end this tour 1-2...

If we get Sharks, bulls, then kings and sunwolves we are almost in playoff.
 

Cruz_del_Sur

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Te rationale behind my post is the following: the key games here are the games we have between us (Jags vs Sharks) and how we both do vs the Lions (and the bulls). We have played the Lions at home and won, while the Sharks have played the Lions away and lost. So, in order to achieve "partiy" vs the Lions, the Sharks would need to win at home and we would need to lose away. That, in my book, gives us a small edge.
We have one game less and we've already played the Stormers (the other boggie man in both of our schedules) while they have not, although, to be fair, we played against the Stormers away while the Sharks have that game at home.

Bottom line, if we lose against the Sharks away and beat them at home, i still fancy our chances.
 

marianodan

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As for Tejerizo he will play only the last 20 so no biggies.
No biggie? Every time Creevy is subbed off we start to struggle. Montoya has one full year of SR and test match experience with Pumas, Tejerizo barely anything. For me it's a relevant miss, those last 20 mins could prove costly.
 
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FNS

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We struggle because most our subs are ****. Not one player.
 

SomeOke

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Just as a matter of interest does anyone know when Landajo will be back?
 

TRF_stormer2010

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Just as a matter of interest does anyone know when Landajo will be back?
Yeah. Anyone got any info? PM me so Someoke can't snap him up on the waiver wire ahead of me.
 

Bruce_ma_goose

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I think at the start of the season they estimated he'd miss the first six weeks. So it shouldn't be long. Surprised how little they have missed him so far.
 

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I think there's a chance that both these teams end up in the playoffs, but there's also a big chance that they end up fighting for one spot. If that is true, then this the sort of match that Sharks can't afford to lose. So I agree a bit with Cruz Del Sur, if Sharks win, specially if they get no bonus and the Jags get a losing bonus, the end result is practically a stalemate, and the Jaguares will have the chance to even the odds back in Buenos Aires.

However, the Jags are well rested, and should be the ones with less pressure for a result, so if they can pull off the (mild) upset of an away win, they'll be in a great position to qualify to the playoffs, while the Sharks will be looking at the prospect of making a few upsets of their own (Stormers, Jags @ Buenos Aires), or a whole bunch of bonus points over the Jags, to make the cut.
 

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In order to both be in playoffs lions should finish 3rd place and i dont see that happening any time soon xD
 

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I think it's pretty much a fact that if the Jags win both matches against Sharks, they will make it into the play-offs. The same if it happens the other way around.
 

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SHARKS vs JAGUARES (Saturday, 15:05)Jon Cardinelli: Sharks by 7
Gary Lemke: Sharks by 7
Craig Lewis: Sharks by 7
Simon Borchardt: Sharks by 6
Mariette Adams: Sharks by 6
Juandre Joubert: Sharks by 13
The Money Man: TBC

 

Xapi

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In order to both be in playoffs lions should finish 3rd place and i dont see that happening any time soon xD
There's a very high likelyhood of there being no wild cards from Aus and SA1 conference. This means that there is a chance of 2 wildcards in NZ and 2 in SA2. I grant that 3 NZ and 1 SA2 is probably the most likely possibility, but I wouldn't rule out the 2-2 split.

I kinda like in these cases to pull numbers out of thin air to see what the odds are, so I'd say:

N° of WC per conference:

3 NZ, 1 SA2: 60%
2 NZ, 2 SA2: 30%
2NZ, 1 SA2, 1 Other: 10%

In the 70% chance of 1 SA2 WC, I'd give it a 10% chance of the Lions crumbling down spectacularily to go down to third.

That gives you 30% + 70% * 10% = 37% chance of both Jags and Sharks qualifying. That's probably a bit high, but I wouldn't go much below 20%

You can adjust those numbers to reach your own conclusions, but I think it's a possibility. It is also what would happen if the season ended now.
 
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