Discussion in 'International Test Matches' started by TRF_heineken, Nov 12, 2018.
Venue: Aviva Stadium
Time: 21:00 CAT (SA, GMT+2)
6 points spread in favour of NZ for this one, bet against it boys. We're taking this one hard!
On a more serious note, is this the first 1v2 in the world rankings clash since the RWC final in 2015?
Nah, based on last week, we don't look like getting close.
It'd need a seismic change in performance to get a result.
Firstly, did you see NZ last week? Not exactly inspired stuff against a team who have forgotten how to win.
Secondly, why would you base anything on last week? It was clearly played with this week and next year in mind, and it was solid win. We're likely going to add over 100 caps to our back line this week. The way I see it is the best two teams of the last 12 months are about to play each other, both have lost one game and won a few games less convincingly than they should have. They're more talented but I think we're more settled and with home advantage this is about 50/50 in my opinion.
With Henshaw out we better start saying our Hail Marys for Ringrose and Aki's injuries. They seem to be grand but any little niggle could pull up and we're looking at starting Addison, Arnold McCloskey against the All Blacks. Without wanting to state the obvious no Murray is a huge blow and the loss of his influence will swing it in the ABs favour IMO. It's the equivalent of the ABs without Retallick,
Will be delighted to see Marmion start but I'm in the would-prefer-Murray-starting-than-depth-building camp were he available. I want to see how our 100% first choice performs against the All Blacks. If we snuck a win against them with a small chunk of 2nd choice players it will be very impressive but I just can't see it. That said England are missing loads of first choice players and played like men possessed so ya never know. I just feel the ABs aren't going to let themselves be pushed around and ****** with as much as they let against England.
I don't know anymore, can barely hold my excitement! On a slightly unrelated note that buff af ref from the Argentina game was impressive. Looking forward to seeing him ref more games. Buff ref is best ref
Murray and Henshaw ruled out
Nope, haven't seen any of it.
The Ulster lineout has been dung for a lot longer than one week.
Unless Joe makes a big call or RB rediscovers the accuracy he had back in 2011, then the platform that gave us so much in Chicago is likely to be largely AWOL.
Our attack is also laboured (c.f. NZ) and has been for a long time. Its brutal, but largely relies on us bossing possession and territory by +10%. A big ask. Big big ask of the pack. Especially if our lineout misfires.
NZ looked genuinely rattled for the first 20 minutes in the England game. However they managed to claw their way back into it, which is one of the reasons they are the best team in the world I suppose.
Henshaw is a big loss, he was so key two years ago and I think his injury was the reason for the loss in the second test. Aki is an adequate replacement and was brilliant last week but Henshaw is still a step up.
I think the following backline has enough about it to do a job but we're getting very thin and an injury to anyone but Marmion or Stockdale could prove fatal.
9. Marmion (I'm kind of resigned to him starting despite thinking the other two are better)
I think I'd play Toner and VdF too but we should definitely be looking at dominating the battle of the forwards regardless. I can't wait for this now.
How do you think the scrum battle will go given the All Blacks had parity at best with England? I don't really know how that injury plagued english scrum would compare to what's available for Ireland.
I'll be interested to see the selections as Scott Barrett to me is good enough at 6, despite his inexperience in that position, to warrant selection over squire. While squire hasn't really improved during his time with the ABs Scott Barrett has improved markedly. Squire off the bench could be useful though.
One thing I can predict for sure, the losing team will only have lost due to bad refereeing decisions. You heard it here first, mark my words.
We have a strong scrum, it was dominant against Argentina but I don't think it will be v NZ who are stronger there. One place where I do think we'll be stronger is the back row, without Cane I don't fear your flankers too much and while Read is still world class he is only one man.
A big factor as well will be how Ryan fares against Retallick, it's the best lock in world rugby against the lad who will eventually take that title off him imo. There's so many tasty individual battles and battles between different combos that we'd be robbed if this game doesn't stand up to the previous three between the sides.
British Irish Lions
Retallick v Ryan and Sexton v Beauden are two key match ups. But also looking forward to seeing who gets the ascendancy between Big Karl and Furlong come scrum time.
I think ABs will start with Dane Coles instead of Codie Taylor for this one, and Coles is useful in the loose. Crotty to come in for SBW. Otherwise rest of team same as v England.
RC champs v GS champs, 1 v 2 in the world and not played in 2 years. Hopefully live up to expectations like the 2013 match.
Ringrose/Toner will make both attacking and having a functioning lineout way easier. Going past this game though I think we might need/see Scannell starting by the world cup. I think we've got an equal/slightly better front row, better backrow and are weaker in the second row obviously but at the same time Ryan plus whoever (probably Toner) is nothing to be sniffed at.
Clearly without Murray, they're stronger in the halfbacks and Henshaw is a huge loss in the centres. Their back 3 is unequivocally better but having Kearney will go a long way towards minimising their impact.
I wouldn't be too worried by last week, the only thing that was really bad was the lineout and we've got a clear solution to that in our squad. I'd be confident of Sexton rediscovering his form too. We can't win with five tries and some beautiful moves every week.
I think we might have one too many injuries/players coming back from an injury for this, so I'd say we'll lose be less than 7. Wouldn't be surprised at all if we won though.
Anyway I hope whoever wins actually wins and doesn't have to spend the next week listening to endless whinging about the ref (like that's going to happen). I may be unable to live up to this of we lose though and no doubt will spend several hours complaining about how a completely innocuous decision about 50 mins through the game actually is one of the most farcical decisions in sporting history in a loud manner to anyone who'll listen (nobody). Alcohol might play a role in this.
Anyway the last 3 games between these teams were epics and I hope this lives up to it. Can't wait!
If Ireland have Aki and Ringrose start (and they give a decent performance) then I'll be plumping for Ireland all the live-long day. I think Ireland have improved and NZ have regressed slightly since their last meetings. AB still the best though, so based purely on home field.
We cope without a number of our star players, we played for years without Carter, we've played a lot of rugby recently without Brodie too and managed (thanks to how good Scott Barrett is), i don't think Ireland manage well when they have injuries. but we definitely missed Cane vs England I reckon, Ardie's been immense, but Cane is just so good, Squire has to step up too
I think one of Ireland's biggest problems has always been depth. over the years a few injuries happen and they suddnely become less threatening, Murray and Henshaw out is a massive loss that really tips the advantage well in our favour i reckon. im really disappointed not to be able to have a crack at Ireland at home at full strength, I think the odds would be 55/45 just slightly in our favour with them at full strength at home, but with those injuries i think it's now around 65/35 - it will be a cracker match tho, the Irish are a really strong team and will be fired up
Bundee was a good servant for the Chiefs, but he was miles down the pecking order for the AB's, never got a sniff and wouldn't now either, Goodhue is on his way to becoming the best centre in the world and Crotty when fit is the man - can't wait to see more of this partnership in black
I'm really keen to see a more controlled performance than the English one, so i doubt we will kick the pill as much (fingers crossed the weathers good) - the grubbers from Barrett last game were frustrating, especially from good attacking i situations
im still happy with Taylor starting ahead of Coles, Coles gotta keep performing to earn his spot back, cause Taylors been awesome.
hopefully the bench has more of an impact than last week, other than Scott Barrett and Coles (and Crotty early for SBW), the rest of the subs didn't help
i'd like to see the backline we picked last week with better weather. i do miss Bender at FB though, just provides such stability and sets the defence well, I think it's clear even Hansen doesn't quite know our best backline tho - needs to be sorted soon for the RWC
looking forward to having a specialist 14 again, hoping George Bridge becomes a more popular selection, i always think we are at our best when we do and Bender is playing FB
Expecting Ireland to try pressure B.Barrett a lot. can't wait for the match, should be a cracker
P.S - It'd be good if the game isn't decided on a refs decision again, it's happening every game
Prediction; All Blacks 26-22 Ireland
Depth has really improved over the last few years but there are still a few players who we need to be at our best and Murray is definitely one of them, I'd put Sexton, Ringrose and Kearney in there as well. There are enough quality forwards not to worry about the pack unless we get a double injury in one of the front row positions but that's unlikely.
Ringrose is key to our attack, Kearney the same to our defence, and obviously Murray/Sexton are just class.
Henshaw we can survive without so long as Aki and Ringrose are both passed as fit to play. He's better but Aki can is a similar enough player in terms of style and can fill in without disrupting the game plan or anything. I'm a lot more worried about how Leinster are going to deal with it if Henshaw's injury proves serious, we lack quality cover for RingShaw/HenRose/Whatever you want to call it since Nacewa retired.
On Aki he's really improved since he came to Ireland, some players just do well from a move and it allows them to kick on. Not saying he'd be starring in black if he'd stayed but he's proven to be a quality player who doesn't look out of place at international level despite farcical injuries at 13 meaning he changes partner every match. He won't make the 23 if Henshaw and Ringrose can be fit for Ireland at the same time but that hasn't happened for over a year and we've done well in that time period.
I don't think we need Murray quite as much as a lot of people think, I've seen it suggested plenty of times that he's more important than Sexton and I really don't agree. It's not that Murray is any better or worse than Johnny it's more that Johnny is very dictatorial on the pitch and any 9 with adequate skills will look better with him, Murray doesn't have quite the same effect on his 10s.
I think without Sexton we can't beat NZ whereas we'd have to lose at least two of Murray, Kearney and Ringrose to make it an impossibility of Sexton was playing. If our 9 can box kick reasonably well we'll be able to adjust and Murray won't be a huge loss although not so much if Ringrose is gone too.
As for Aki, he is a good international but he'll be the worst centre on the pitch come Saturday, Ringrose will be the best though!
weather forecast? wold be good to see a bit more running this week, DMac and Smith bad good break last week but you could see the big bloke just couldnt keep up in the wet and so moves just died
i imagine crotty will be the only change...just really want to see smith at fullback
Cloudy with a decent wind according to Met Eireann. At this time of year that could mean anything. Predicting weather in Dublin isn't easy so it could be lovely or terrible rain. It's Ireland in November in any case so there's a high chance of rain in the 24 hours leading up to the game no matter what.
Good luck to the Irish this weekend, should be a great test match!
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