[2020 Six Nations] England vs Wales (07/03/20)

[TRF_Olyy]

VS

16:45, 07/03/2020​

Twickenham Stadium, London​

 

[MarkyH]

England to lose by a Nick Tompkins try !

Actually, quite optimistic. Whoever we put out we should win comfortably. Wouldn't mind seeing Watson at full back (and I'm still a fan of what Daly brings to that position) and JJ in the centre with Manu. Proper 5-3 split to please, don't cram locks in. Play Wilson.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I really want England to give Wales a pasting just for once. No close game where it can be claimed some dodgy decision helped England, an absolute rout. Also be interesting to see if biggar reins in his complaining and if refs do something about it if he doesn't. Farrell could ensure he makes the ref very aware of every time biggar is throwing a tantrum.

 

[ncurd]

Farrell isn't squeaky clean when comes to ref petulance,

Wales can always been guaranteed to bring their A-Game against us not gonna win this by a mile.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

I really want England to give Wales a pasting just for once.

Well, obviously! Although it's the hope that kills, so a last minute try or a dodgy decision (in our favour) would be quite amusing. Bushy and his grannies would have been wounded far more by Daly's last minute score in 2017 than by a damned good thrashing.

But switching on full arrogance mode we ought to win with a bit to spare.

 

[martinspoonboy1]

I really want England to give Wales a pasting just for once. No close game where it can be claimed some dodgy decision helped England, an absolute rout. Also be interesting to see if biggar reins in his complaining and if refs do something about it if he doesn't. Farrell could ensure he makes the ref very aware of every time biggar is throwing a tantrum.

To be fair, the last few times at Twickenham we have pasted them, just the score line hasn't been reflective of just how much of a pasting a couple of them have been.

Wales tend to be able to keep it close .
(Why 7-4 on England to win by 1-12 is pretty tempting)

 

[Johnny Storm]

Yeah, England should win comfortably, the English pack is stronger and the problems at No 10 for Wales should be easily exploited.

 

[Jashay]

WalesOnline appear to be confident that Biggar, North, Williams and Navidi are all available. That would certainly give them a boost, even accounting for North's poor form

 

[oj121]

Personally I think Wales have more of a chance if they leave Biggar out (im a huge fan) and let Evans just go and play on impulse. If Navidi is back a quick strong back row and a 10 that runs from everywhere might just be the 'unknown' that gives Wales an ice cubes chance in hell.

Really cant see it being within 15 and dont think Wales will even come close to clicking until the old guard revamp in the Autumn though.

 

[martinspoonboy1]

WalesOnline appear to be confident that Biggar, North, Williams and Navidi are all available. That would certainly give them a boost, even accounting for North's poor form

North should be nowhere near the squad.

Not because of form. (As I would love to see May and Watson have a run at him) but because of his head. Clearly needs an extended break at the very least.

 

[spartan32]

Wales are always going to give it 10% extra against us at the very least. If we play with the sort of intensity of the Ireland game then our chances are good, but we never seem to be able to maintain that level from game to game. Also the Ireland game does give Jones licence to play his 6-2 split again, but will he?

with Watson back and Slade seemingly fit for duty, do we go with Daly 15, Watson 14, May 11, then have a 9 on the bench with Slade and probably JJ as Jones will almost certainly play Ford and Faz together with Manu at 13.

agree with above martinspoonboy that North should not be playing. The guys heads been rattled so many times this season he should be getting laid off for a bit for his own good surely? It's not like Wales don't have any other options to work with.

 

[Not Eddie Jones]

On Planet Rugby, Michael Owen, Expert Witness, has picked Wales to win. Because... they've had a two-week break. I kid you not. Then again, Owen thinks that Wales always adapted their game to the situation under Gatland, so I'm not quite sure what he's supposed to be an expert in!

Honestly, Planet Rugby predictions are the kiss of death (they had Ireland to win at Twickers in the last round), so I'm feeling really confident now.

 

[Not Eddie Jones]

To be fair, the last few times at Twickenham we have pasted them, just the score line hasn't been reflective of just how much of a pasting a couple of them have been.

Wales tend to be able to keep it close .
(Why 7-4 on England to win by 1-12 is pretty tempting)

Yeah, the worst one for that was the 27-13 win in 2016. We outscored them 5 tries to 1, but because Ford couldn't hit the broad side of a barn that day, what should have been 40+ ended up as 27, keeping it relatively close throughout.

Interestingly, in 4 years under Eddie, that game and the 33-19 last year remain our biggest wins against Wales, a margin of only 14 points. In that same period, we've beaten Scotland 61-21, Ireland 57-15, Italy 57-14 and France 44-8. It really does lend credence to the old cliche that if Wales played against the rest of the world the way they play against us, they'd be world champions several times over!

 

[Not Eddie Jones]

Well, obviously! Although it's the hope that kills, so a last minute try or a dodgy decision (in our favour) would be quite amusing. Bushy and his grannies would have been wounded far more by Daly's last minute score in 2017 than by a damned good thrashing.

But switching on full arrogance mode we ought to win with a bit to spare.

More than anything, I think we really need to back up the Ireland performance, so another dominant win really is important for England. A close win may annoy Bushy and his grannies, but it would annoy me too, because it would indicate we're standing still.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

More than anything, I think we really need to back up the Ireland performance, so another dominant win really is important for England. A close win may annoy Bushy and his grannies, but it would annoy me too, because it would indicate we're standing still.

Ire wasn't a dominant win.

We were well ahead at half time against a side on the wane whose half backs hadn't played that badly since they were u12s, with a ball definitely bouncing in our favour. We lost the second half.

We were at home. According to ESPN...

We ran fewer metres - 206 v 235.

We had less possession - 39% v 61%

We had less territory - 41% v 59%

We made, and missed, more tackles - 180/197 v 106/116.

We conceded more penalties - 13 v 9

Of course stats lie. Ire was our best performance of the 6N so far, but in no way was it much above adequate. A decent first half on the scoreboard but not much more than that. Still look very clunky. And Ire will still be kicking themselves that they didn't properly test our back 3.

 

[spartan32]

Ire wasn't a dominant win.

We were well ahead at half time against a side on the wane whose half backs hadn't played that badly since they were u12s, with a ball definitely bouncing in our favour. We lost the second half.

We were at home. According to ESPN...

We ran fewer metres - 206 v 235.

We had less possession - 39% v 61%

We had less territory - 41% v 59%

We made, and missed, more tackles - 180/197 v 106/116.

We conceded more penalties - 13 v 9

Of course stats lie. Ire was our best performance of the 6N so far, but in no way was it much above adequate. A decent first half on the scoreboard but not much more than that. Still look very clunky. And Ire will still be kicking themselves that they didn't properly test our back 3.

But stats are never the full story. Watching that game it never felt like Ireland ever had a chance. At no point did I hold my breath and worry, and I'd imagine most other England fans were the same. In fact the stadium went pretty quiet towards the end because the result had been clear for some time. And in fact, if anything, the stats show how strong and dominant England can be. To have stats that look pretty shaky and still put out a strong performance against one of the worlds best teams says a lot I think.

and yes the Irish half backs had a shocker, but that was as much down to English pressure rattling them as anything. Jones clearly identifies the weakness and targeted it hard with excellent results. I just hope he can do the same with Wales.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

and yes the Irish half backs had a shocker, but that was as much down to English pressure rattling them as anything.

Was it? Murray messed up countless box kicks that were well set up and constantly passed behind players with good ball. Sexton was facing more pressure but still had three horrendous garryowens/crossfield kicks under no pressure, dropped a ball when no one was around and missed place kicks.

England were dominant and did well to be but to discount how incredibly bad Ireland were is a bit naive, it wasn't like last year in Dublin where you did just play at a level of intensity that any team a couple percent off their game couldn't cope with.

 

[klitarris]

I expect England to make another step up in terms of intensity (and hopefully skill, creativity and execution) from the Ireland game, which was itself a step up from the Scotland game, itself a step up from the France game - the less said about which the better! I think that step up, plus home advantage, plus Wales' injuries, will mean a fairly comfortable win for us. And by comfortable, I don't necessarily mean in terms of scoreline. Of course, having said all that, we're going to go and get beaten!

What I am trying to work out is why we've been pretty rubbish so far this 6 nations. Sure, against Ireland it was a good performance but as has been pointed out already Murray and Sexton were so bad that we didn't have to play that well in order to win relatively easily. There has to be an element of world cup hangover, and personally i think that against France at least our Saracens guys were certainly affected by the salary cap goings on. But this is virtually the same team that a few months ago went in to the world cup final as favourites to win, having benn (in my view) comfortably the best team in the competition. In the final itself they were undone by a number of factors, the largest of which was clearly an inspired performance by the Springboks - both players and backroom staff. Were our players that traumatised by that final Was the process of getting there such an effort that they;ve essentially had to reset afterwards? Are we trying a different gameplan? Have we been that affected by injuries and/or people playing out of position? I'm genuinely interested in people's thoughts.

 

[spartan32]

Was it? Murray messed up countless box kicks that were well set up and constantly passed behind players with good ball. Sexton was facing more pressure but still had three horrendous garryowens/crossfield kicks under no pressure, dropped a ball when no one was around and missed place kicks.

England were dominant and did well to be but to discount how incredibly bad Ireland were is a bit naive, it wasn't like last year in Dublin where you did just play at a level of intensity that any team a couple percent off their game couldn't cope with.

I'm not saying it was all down to English pressure, they clearly came on the pitch a little jaded for some reason, but I would suggest that England's subsequent pressure turned the cracks into chasms. If we hadn't put the pressure on I reckon both would have settled down, but they just never got the chance. It became a downward spiral for both and the England players monopolised on it, and I think that's the key.

But I don't want to get too distracted about what has come before. Just felt the need to stand up for the lads and not have a solid performance written off as "Ireland having a bad game". Which is really unfair.

In terms of what is to come. We have home advantage, the start of some momentum, players returning from injury and Manu still in the frame and going good. Our pack look strong, and the general consensus seems to be we're stronger than Wales in that department (but tat remains to be seen). Then there is the disruption to Wales working with a new coach and new systems. All should really give us enough edge to take this home, but Wales will be looking for a strong performance to really kick start their tournament, and will love nothing more than to scalp us at HQ. We just need to be ready for that.

 

[spartan32]

I expect England to make another step up in terms of intensity (and hopefully skill, creativity and execution) from the Ireland game, which was itself a step up from the Scotland game, itself a step up from the France game - the less said about which the better! I think that step up, plus home advantage, plus Wales' injuries, will mean a fairly comfortable win for us. And by comfortable, I don't necessarily mean in terms of scoreline. Of course, having said all that, we're going to go and get beaten!

What I am trying to work out is why we've been pretty rubbish so far this 6 nations. Sure, against Ireland it was a good performance but as has been pointed out already Murray and Sexton were so bad that we didn't have to play that well in order to win relatively easily. There has to be an element of world cup hangover, and personally i think that against France at least our Saracens guys were certainly affected by the salary cap goings on. But this is virtually the same team that a few months ago went in to the world cup final as favourites to win, having benn (in my view) comfortably the best team in the competition. In the final itself they were undone by a number of factors, the largest of which was clearly an inspired performance by the Springboks - both players and backroom staff. Were our players that traumatised by that final Was the process of getting there such an effort that they;ve essentially had to reset afterwards? Are we trying a different gameplan? Have we been that affected by injuries and/or people playing out of position? I'm genuinely interested in people's thoughts.

These are elite athletes and it doesn't take much to through them off course. I don't think the impact of a lost WC and then the cheating scandal at Saracens can be underestimated. Imagine how the changing room felt in the England camp when the news broke that several of the players had essentially been cheating for two seasons?! I'd imagine some of the other players who's teams may have been robbed of silverware would have been at least a little hostile. It hardly lends itself to strong team cohesion.

Then there's the physical toll. Essentially training for 4 years, aiming to hit peak for one game, must be tough on a body.

there has also been a change in coaching staff which would also have caused some disruption as well.

when you take all that together, coming up against a young, spirited French side, in Paris, in the ******* rain, with a new coach and everything to play for in your first game, well it was probably always going to be a struggle. But as you say we've steadily got back on the horse and seem to be improving with each game. As long as that trend continues (and cronavirus doesn't end all sport as we know it) we should be ok.