[2020 Six Nations] France vs Ireland (31/10/20)

[Groundhog]

 

[Groundhog]

Thought I'd get the ball rolling. Ireland will be missing Ringrose with his broken jaw. JGP apparently also pulled up with a hamstring and Cooney is joining the squad. Also a chance Earls may be brought in. I imagine we will go with a fairly similar team for France though.

The French will be missing Thomas, with Mathieu Jalibert replacing him in the squad, and Boulthier is a doubt depending on RTP protocols with Le Roux facing a citing.

I think it will be a big ask for Ireland, and Ringrose is a big loss against the French centres. At least we will know what needs to be done before the game. Personally I would take a win in Paris as a huge positive even if we fall short of winning the competition.

 

[BPM]

Agreed. It's a tricky one as if England win with a BP as expected, I don't think chasing tries really suits Ireland. Particularly when playing a looser, less structure game against France could be suicidal.

Ireland can absolutely win, particularly if France cough up a similar amount of penalties, but whether they can win with a BP and a big points difference is another question.

If I were Farrell, I'd be prioritising a good win over an excellent team rather than worrying too much about the ***le.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

This should be a fun game, both sides should be throwing the kitchen sink at it to run up a score.
I think we're fairly well set up to contain France where they're strong, Henshaw is one of the best defenders around and both are physically up to task. Sexton and Ireland have generally fared well against attacking 10s and while N'tamack has more to his game than Russell or Barrett we can still make life tough for them. Murray needs to build on his improved showing last week and try to impose himself on Dupont, I think this is the biggest gulf in class in the two starting XVs though. I'm very excited to see what our backrow can do, I think it's the most balanced we've ever had, unfortunate that neither Leavy or Deegan have the fitness or Conan the form to be impacts off the bench but I'd take a fairly neutral cameo from POM again. Injury has kind of ****** our bench honestly, Bealham, POM, Marmion, Byrne and Earls aren't exactly the safest or most impactful group to bring on.
I don't expect a win, and I'm not sure if I expect a good performance even though 3/4 games under Farrell have been promising at least. A win equals a very successful campaign for a transitioning squad while a loss is what was expected, hopefully Wales do us a favour against Scotland so we needn't worry about securing third place.

 

[Reiser99]

Although I fully expect England to get the 5 points, even if they don't and it's just 4, the points difference will still count. Ultimately this game will be shaped by England's game and what each side require to win. Personally I think it will work out better for Ireland on the whole as they will need less than France if England win big. If France have to be really aggressive to try and win then Ireland could easily take advantage on the counter attack.

 

[munstermuffin]

Agreed with Alpha that I can't see us winning but if we did I would argue this would be better than any of the ***les under Schmidt. Simply because of the starting point.
I like also the way Farrell is trying to get the team to play but it is hard.

In the front row it can be argued we lack serious depth and well performing player. Healy is not the top class he once was but unfortunately there is no one really who is better.
3. Porter is fine but a big drop on Furlong. Then the bench drop is serious gaps. And at hooker Kelleher is probably the best of the 3 but none I think are up to top international class and away from home will find life hard.
2nd row again is our strong point and a big reason is James Ryan. But Beirne is turning in great displays but is probably better as a 6 as he is light for lock at this level.
Backrow is flying it and I have to disagree here with Alpha in that I think Conan is nowhere near the international level and while he is a good club player I think he will be gone from Leinster in the next year or 2. Leavy is still on mend and would be better than POM who is nearing the end in green but I think is there for lineout reasons.
Disagree on Murray Dupont being the biggest gap. I think if and it is a big IF Murray can play to his ability then Ireland will shade it here. But Murray while he was very good vs Italy we have to be careful to acknowledge it was Italy.
Same goes with Sexton. Fact are he is still our best 10 but far from best 10 in Europe now. Age waits for no man and while he will never let us down he has been between average and good. The physical toll will be the big task here.
My biggest worry is centre. Aki and Henshaw are consistent in being poor together at this level and Vakatawa will be the danger point. Both Aki and Henshaw are good defensively but Henshaw has declined slightly and is not the same worldclass player of the past. Which is arguably evident in the gap between himself and Aki currently. But again the worry is the lack of alternatives. Chris Farrell would offer a totally different style but well again is not international class or a better player than the other 2.
Back 3 is my biggest worry. Hugo Keenan did very well but again it was against Italy so hard to really judge. But he is a good player and certainly deserves spot. Conway also is sound defensively and will keep busy. Stockdale is by far my biggest worry. He is not a 15 and well while he was good going forward as a 15 defensively does not have the game. We heard for so many years Rob Kearney's greatest strength as a 15 was ability to organise and read the back field. Well Stockdale does not have that and is not a worldclass tackler but also is prone to lapse in concentration at times. Also on bench Earls being there I presume is to cover 12-15 but there is no way he is ready. He was not right when we were treating him here in Limerick and I presumed it was just he was continuing on to end rehab with IRFU medical team. But also he is not getting any younger and we should be trying Daly on bench maybe.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Disagree on Murray Dupont being the biggest gap. I think if and it is a big IF Murray can play to his ability then Ireland will shade it here. But Murray while he was very good vs Italy we have to be careful to acknowledge it was Italy.
.

A couple other things I disagree with in the post but not as much as usual or massively relevant to the weekend!

I couldn't disagree with you here more though. If Murray hits his 2016-2018 best/top two in the world form, which he definitely won't, I still think Dupont is the better player. Murray's peak was very very good but Dupont already looks like a generational player and has greatest of all time potential as a 9. Murray needs to throw his weight around and frustrate Dupont if possible,

 

[Groundhog]

No ban for Bernard le Roux

 

[TheOvalBall]

I'm just hoping for a French win.

 

[munstermuffin]

A couple other things I disagree with in the post but not as much as usual or massively relevant to the weekend!

I couldn't disagree with you here more though. If Murray hits his 2016-2018 best/top two in the world form, which he definitely won't, I still think Dupont is the better player. Murray's peak was very very good but Dupont already looks like a generational player and has greatest of all time potential as a 9. Murray needs to throw his weight around and frustrate Dupont if possible,

Fair on Dupont but he was not 100% on form recently. Yes he can be a generational player but if you are docking points (and rightly so) for Murray then same for Dupont although nowhere near the same.
As I said not arguing Dupont the better player but more this is not the biggest gap in teams.

 

[FrenchFan]

I'm expecting a very tight game. Ireland can do a number on les Bleus if they focus on just winning the game. Galthie has picked the right players but the jury is still out on his ability to coach them. His teams since Japan have been penalty giving machines that average 10 to 15 penalties per game. Les Bleus lost the championship in Scotland due to poor discipline. Best wingers Thomas and Penaud are out which forces Galthié to pick a newcomer if he wants a specialist wing. When les Bleus sort out their discipline they'll stay in the top 5 until then they'll just flatter to deceive.
If Ireland put out a big defensive effort and compete in rucks a la Leinster, with a kicker like Sexton they can win.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

I'm expecting a very tight game. Ireland can do a number on les Bleus if they focus on just winning the game. Galthie has picked the right players but the jury is still out on his ability to coach them. His teams since Japan have been penalty giving machines that average 10 to 15 penalties per game. Les Bleus lost the championship in Scotland due to poor discipline. Best wingers Thomas and Penaud are out which forces Galthié to pick a newcomer if he wants a specialist wing. When les Bleus sort out their discipline they'll stay in the top 5 until then they'll just flatter to deceive.
If Ireland put out a big defensive effort and compete in rucks a la Leinster, with a kicker like Sexton they can win.

I imagine fickou or vakatwa no?

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

From an England perspective, Ireland have only score 4 tries against France on 1 occasion in the last 20 years, on the less positive side from our perspective, it was in 2019. This could really go either way but I think short of a massive change in form, Ireland will struggle to get 4 tries against France. England will probably need to beat Italy by about 40 assuming Ireland have a non-BP win, which will be one hell of an ask.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

From an England perspective, Ireland have only score 4 tries against France on 1 occasion in the last 20 years, on the less positive side from our perspective, it was in 2019. This could really go either way but I think short of a massive change in form, Ireland will struggle to get 4 tries against France. England will probably need to beat Italy by about 40 assuming Ireland have a non-BP win, which will be one hell of an ask.

Twice, we lost with 4 tries in 06.

Even more optimism from an English POV would be that the last time we beat France 4 times in a row was in the 1920s.

 

[Reiser99]

Big thing for me is France are looking confident and look more like they are playing as a team. For a while now it's been a few bright sparks of individuality. Yes they still have that, but they also seem to be on the same wave length more. Not necessarily to the level of other teams, but a definite improvement over previous years.

 

[Leinster Fan]

Cautiously optimistic about this one. I think we have the weaker side on paper and our pack is lightweight compared to the French but they'll come out needing even more than us (both sides need a bp win but they'll need points difference as well). They'll need to attack from the off and I think that'll leave us enough chances to get the 4 tries, and if we can hold on to win then we're sorted. Easier said than done obviously but I can hope.

The most likely outcome is a French win obviously but I think there's a relevant if small chance of us actually pulling this off. Not that I'll be surprised if we lose by 10-15.

 

[Leinster Fan]

15. Jacob Stockdale (Lurgan/Ulster) 29
14. Andrew Conway (Garryowen/Munster) 22
13. Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Leinster) 44
12. Bundee Aki (Galwegians/Connacht) 27
11. Hugo Keenan (UCD/Leinster) 1
10. Jonathan Sexton (St. Mary's College/Leinster) (capt) 92
9. Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster) 82
1. Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster) 99
2. Rob Herring (Ballynahinch/Ulster) 12
3. Andrew Porter (UCD/Leinster) 27
4. Tadhg Beirne (Lansdowne/Munster) 14
5. James Ryan (UCD/Leinster) 27
6. Caelan Doris (UCD/Leinster) 3
7. Will Connors (UCD/Leinster) 1
8. CJ Stander (Shannon/Munster) 42

Replacements:

16. Dave Heffernan (Buccaneers/Connacht) 2
17. Ed Byrne (UCD/Leinster) 1
18. Finlay Bealham (Galway Corinthians/Connacht) 10
19. Ultan Dillane (Galway Corinthians/Connacht) 16
20. Peter O'Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster) 68
21. Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster) 1
22. Ross Byrne (UCD/Leinster) 7
23. Chris Farrell (Munster/Young Munster) 9

Bit less optimistic now that I've seen the team written down. It's not great. Don't know if that front 5 is physical enough, Ryan still looks like he's carrying an injury. Injuries have wrecked our bench as well, would feel much more optimistic with Kilcoyne, Porter and Kelleher to come on.

 

[munstermuffin]

Wonder what Kelleher did to be totally out of picture. Trained this week I have that as a fact. And presume if he was injury doubt another hooker would be in to cover in same manner as Cooney was for JGP.

If Conway or Keenan go off injured we are in huge trouble as none of Farrell, Henshaw or Aki are wingers. And if Stockdale goes out and it means Henshaw going to 15 well then it will truly be Halloween.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

France going into full nationwide lockdown on Friday so I'll be surprised if this goes ahead

Edit: Apparently top level sport allowed to continue, so maybe not

 

[munstermuffin]

France going into full nationwide lockdown on Friday so I'll be surprised if this goes ahead

Edit: Apparently top level sport allowed to continue, so maybe not

They basically going same as Ireland are in at moment. All elite sport is allowed continue