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[2023 Six Nations] Wales v Ireland - 5 February 2023

I reckon there's about a 25% chance of Ireland blowing us away in the first 20-40 mins and we lose pretty comfortably.

I put another 45% on it being kind of close for the first hour but Ireland to see out a relatively comfortable win in the end and a 30% chance we sneak a win.

Seeing as I'm normally wrong on all my predictions I'm going to put £100 on a draw.
 
Just cause I'm bored, here's a quick head to head comparison:

Porter = Thomas - similar players, good all rounders. Porter's been great since his conversion to loosehead, but Thomas was a success story of the Pivac reign.
Sheehan > Owens - Owens won't be a weakness, but I really rate Sheehan.
Bealham = Francis - Francis is solid enough, but doesn't offer a huge amount around the field. I don't know a huge amount about Bealham, but every side would miss Furlong.
Beirne > Beard - not a big fan of Beard, whilst I consider Beirne one of the best players in the world.
Ryan > Jones - AWJ still has something to offer, but I'd have a few players ahead of him now. Ryan is class.
O'Mahoney < Morgan - Experience v exhuberence, Morgan has been on fire recently, and has been in great form for the last couple of years really, so it's not just a recent run of form.
VdF > Tipuric - I think this is very close, but then I've always loved Tips, so accept my bias there. VdF is world player of the year for a reason.
Doris < Faletau - a fit Faletau is up there with any other 8 in world rugby. Doris whilst excellent has a little way to go to match the all round excellence of Taulupe.

Gibson-Park = Williams - Williams still has a lot more to give, but struggles with consistency. Gibson-Park is an odd one, I think there are lots of better 9's out there, including a few Welsh players, but Gibson-Park suits this Ireland side perfectly.
Sexton > Biggar - Sexton may be old, but he's still one of the best 10's in the world (if not the best)... when fit! Biggar is Biggar, can never fault his effort, but I've questioned him attacking ability for close to a decade now.
Lowe > Dyer - Dyer's pace could cause the Irish back 3 issues, but Lowe's power will do likewise. Lowe's kicking game is also very underrated.
McCoskey > Hawkins - Hawkins has a huge future, I have little doubt about that, but he'll have his work cut out vs the powerful McCloskey. Could be an important battle this.
Ringrose > North - North was surprisingly excellent defending the 13 channel in the AI's, but didn't get his attack going much. Ringrose is a very classy player, an all-rounder who rarely puts a foot wrong whilst offering a lot in attack.
Hansen < Adams - Adams remains one of the best finishers in the NH. Hansen's made a mark at international level, but lacks the experience of Adams at this stage.
Keenan > Williams - not many better fullbacks out there than Keenan. When fit the same could be said of Williams, but he's barely played in ages, it's a gamble starting him imo.

Herring > Baldwin - gutted Lake isn't offering impact. Baldwin is a fine player, but Herring is a step or two up.
Healy < Carre - Carre is in great form, his carrrying game could cause Ireland real issues late on. What a aervant Healy's been, but he's not the player he once was.
O'Toole = Lewis - Lewis would take this usually, his improvement in the scrum was a real plys last year, but injuries have seen him miss the last few months. Big ask this.
Henderson > Jenkins - gotta favour the experienced Henderson here. Jenkins is one of the brightest prospects in world rugby, but boy is this a tough assignmemt for him!
Conan = Reffell - difficult to compare the two, as they're very different players and bring different strengths, call it even with Conan the better ball carrier and Reffell a quality operator at the breakdown.
Murray > Webb - battle of the 'experienced' scrum halves. Both not where they used to be, but both have their strengths.
Byrne = Williams - tempted to give this to Williams, as I think he's the better player, an experienced operator even if not at international level. Versatile too with his ability to slot in at 12. Byrne is good, but I'm yet to be fully convinced.
Aki > Cuthbert - think Aki offers more impact, although his inclusion could cause issues if Ireland lose a back 3 player early. Cuthbert has never let Wales down, but I still think Kieran Williams would have been a better option on the bench.

That's a lot of wins for Ireland there it has to be said, so the sensible money is definitely on Ireland here. It's been 10 years since Ireland won a 6n match in Cardiff though...
 
I don't think anyone thinks it'll be easy, Wales in Cardiff shouldn't be.

It's also the sort of match that the number 1 team in the world should navigate without a huge scare. No one seems to respect that number 1 status and I reckon that's driving the side to prove it.
I personally dont respect the number 1 ranking too much, particularly when the previous long term occupier basically gifted it away by hiring (and retaining) a mediocre coach. I do respect getting more than 90 points in the rankings (which France and Ireland both have attained at present). That's a proper achievement and if a team holds that for a calendar year nobody should be doubting your class.

If either Ireland or France can sustain 90+ points for this particular full year they'll likely be world champs and indisputably the best side of 2023 (obviously they'll care much less about the latter).

Italy currently just 15 points and 11 places short of greatness, and that's the best they've been in ages.
 
I reckon there's about a 25% chance of Ireland blowing us away in the first 20-40 mins and we lose pretty comfortably.

I put another 45% on it being kind of close for the first hour but Ireland to see out a relatively comfortable win in the end and a 30% chance we sneak a win.

Seeing as I'm normally wrong on all my predictions I'm going to put £100 on a draw.
Haha

Think that's a fair shout there with the estimations. Just hoping option 1 isn't going the be the case.
 
Ireland pull away at end 30 to 21 with questions for both sides.
 
It's the 60th minute. Wales are behind by 4. Cuthbert is brought on the Welsh fans start their usual grumbles. IT's not minute 75. Cuthbert scores a fantastic solo try from nothing and Wales go ahead by 1. Wales maintain the 1 point lead and win. Welsh fans will suddenly adore Cuthbert and start a petition to have him knighted for services to Welsh rugby.
 
Fetish out Murray in.

That's two of the four guys that I feel we lose a lot if they're missing, out. Big test for the lads now.
Actually think it suits Ireland having Murray start here. Just it will be a Murray type of game
 
Yeah I'd way prefer Casey comes straight in. Better than having to entirely change how we play around one player.
 
Murray will bring experience and control, but he's just too slow these days and I don't really understand picking him to start. Feels like a bit more a missed opportunity to me. Casey should have been picked to push the tempo against a Dad's Army of a Welsh side.
 
I think that's optimistic, would prefer Casey and to play our own game, Wales aren't a side that we need to adapt to.
I just think 1st Gatland game etc regardless it will be scrappy and just we need controlled pace. All the non rugby things like Gats first game, our 1st game since Nov etc just that. If it were 2nd or 3rd game then yes Casey.
Rumours Cian Healy out too
 
Wonder how Gatland will get on without Edwards...
This is a big one for me. Post Wales, Gatland hasn't achieved anything whereas Edwards has only enhanced his reputation. It does make me wonder how much of the success attributed to Gatland was largely down to Edwards?

I'm not completely dismissing what Gatland brings, but 'going back' in sport (and employment) rarely works out well and I think the quality of players he had for much of his previous reign isn't even close to being matched by the current crop.
 
Healy out and Killer to the bench. Obviously not ideal to have that Kate switch, but Killer is in cracking form right now and offers more than Healy.... Aside from playing both sides of course.
 
Nigel Walker constantly having to make that he says "Happy to speak to you." and think "ffs, how many more of these shitty interviews will I have to do." and not mix the two up.

Fair play though that he's not hiding.
 

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