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International Test Matches
2023 World Cup Draw
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<blockquote data-quote="Umaga&#039;s Witness" data-source="post: 1013669" data-attributes="member: 65365"><p>Yeah, was going to say this. The past doesn't affect the future, so it will always be 1/16.</p><p></p><p>Your 1/4096 are relevant to the question "what is the chance these three teams will be in the same pool in each of the three next world cups?"</p><p></p><p>But probably the more interesting way to look at it is, given the World Cup had been drawn eleven times, "out of eleven draws what is the chance the same three teams will be together three times". For any given 3 world cups, the chance is 1/4096. But there are 165 ways of collecting together 3 world cups in a sample of eleven draws. Therefore the probability we are looking for is 165/4096 = 4 % approximately</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Umaga's Witness, post: 1013669, member: 65365"] Yeah, was going to say this. The past doesn’t affect the future, so it will always be 1/16. Your 1/4096 are relevant to the question “what is the chance these three teams will be in the same pool in each of the three next world cups?” But probably the more interesting way to look at it is, given the World Cup had been drawn eleven times, “out of eleven draws what is the chance the same three teams will be together three times”. For any given 3 world cups, the chance is 1/4096. But there are 165 ways of collecting together 3 world cups in a sample of eleven draws. Therefore the probability we are looking for is 165/4096 = 4 % approximately [/QUOTE]
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