A Political Thread pt. 2

[ncurd]

So someone correct me is I'm wrong US counting is ducking weird from a UK perspective. For one the order they count votes is diffrent state to to state some are count postal's in the lead up, some after they close and others after they've counted the ballots they cast on the day. They also release the counting numbers periodically after they start counting, not just the final tally. There's also where they declare districts even though its a state wide poll. This lead to news stations declaring the result before the official result is even given this because somewhere like New York they can't pretty much be certain after a certain % of votes have been counted that its going to stay blue and no amount of additional counting will likely change that (like 80% of vote have to be for Trump and it isn't going to happen). It can lead to issue for example in 2000 some did call Florida for Gore which we know turned out to not be the case (its more complicated than that). So even though the count is not officially finished in a candidate will concede because they know its extremely statistically improbable they'd win. So its possible we'll know the result but the count is actually finished. Its really a case of it hinges a few really tight states (may see long portracted legal battle) or its pretty definitive for example Clinton needed lots of things to go her way in 2016 if she were to contest the count as she'd lost too many states but in 2000 it really did hinge on one wafer thin count. The question is how many results will Trump or Biden have to overturn for the result to be in their favour.

We actually get a similar effect in the UK counts are observed by a candidates nominated people (I've been one) and long term operatives know roughly what wards they have to win (or lose) by a rough % and if the numbers aren't looking good they know very quickly if they're likely to win or lose. For example back in 2017 Cheltenham was lost the LD's by 4.5% and was declared officially at roughly 6-7am but the LD observers had pretty much given up at about 11pm as they knew the numbers weren't where they needed to be.




God I hope the poll are right this time...

 

[ncurd]

For those outside the UK this election matters alot to the UK (probably Ireland) due to Brexit. Scuttlebutt is Johnson has two options in terms of trade with the US and the EU. If Biden wins he has to pretty much concede to a free trade deal that will allow some level of freedom of movement as otherwise we break the Good Friday Agreement and Biden does mean it that we'll not get a deal with them if we do. However if Trump wins they feel they still get a comprehensive US deal that will be better the EU one so can afford more brinksmanship with the EU.

Should note I personally think the US deal will sell off the NHS to US corperations, lead to decreases in food standards and workers rights. None of these things particular matter to the breed Tory currently in power as most of these things are better for mid to large corperations to make money for their shareholders..

 

[Bada-Bing!]

 

[die_mole]

****, I have so much work to do but I really need to start drinking now.

 

[Al Bangor]

Kornacki cracks me up (in a good way). The guy obviously loves his job and really gets into it.

 

[Al Bangor]

****, I have so much work to do but I really need to start drinking now.

Pain is a big part of life. Bring it!

 

[ncurd]

Don't make me hope....I just remember 4 years ago we said exactly the same thing...

 

[ncurd]

Of course the worst thing about Biden winning will be Trump 2024

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Genuine curiosity here chaps, I understand preferring Biden as an individual to trump, but with trump being undoubtedly the better result for the UK does that change what you're hoping for?

 

[ncurd]

Genuine curiosity here chaps, I understand preferring Biden as an individual to trump, but with trump being undoubtedly the better result for the UK does that change what you're hoping for?

ummmm dunno how you work out that one....

 

[ncurd]

As I mentioned above Biden will force us to stick to the GFA (and if you don't think that's important your either really forgetful about the IRA or too young to remember) and actually have a sensible deal with the EU instead of something batshit crazy where we slash rights and sell off the NHS to get one with USA.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

****, I have so much work to do but I really need to start drinking now.

What's the word on the ground where you are Mole? I recall you said you were originally from Pensylvania?

 

[Yulia]

At least 3 American acquaintances of mine voted for Trump just asked them about it as I was curious

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Don't make me hope....I just remember 4 years ago we said exactly the same thing...

Yep, there is always that fear. Today is the only real Poll that matters.

Of course the worst thing about Biden winning will be Trump 2024

If Biden does win then I hope it's only for one term and to turf Trump out. But alot can happen in 4 years. Maybe by then Kamala would be ready to take over/Cuomo would run by then. All ifs and buts atm and means nothing if Trump manages to pull it out the bag.

 

[die_mole]

I'm in North Carolina now for law school. Kind of regret not voting in Pennsylvania via my parents address as that would be the tipping point, but I feel like I should be voting where I go to school.

I voted two weeks ago at the local Historically Black University, I'm pretty happy I voted early cause I'm an early gentrifier so my district is mostly black and I'm sure our lines will be long.

I believe that Biden will win the popular vote, but who knows what will happen with the Supreme Court and Electoral College?

This won't get settled tonight but I think people are going to hit the streets no matter what. I haven't been out since my morning run so I haven't noticed any places boarding up like they did over the summer.

 

[ncurd]

At least 3 American acquaintances of mine voted for Trump just asked them about it as I was curious

Well you know 2 possibly 3 more than me...

There one guy I'm dubious about but the other Americans that are friends are more progressive than I am and hate Trump possibly more than our American posters here. Unfortunately they all live in Massachusetts, theres one who lives in the District of Columbia....so their votes aren't requires. Oh yeah and a good friend is from Delaware....also useless.

 

[Gavin]

Genuine curiosity here chaps, I understand preferring Biden as an individual to trump, but with trump being undoubtedly the better result for the UK does that change what you're hoping for?

Trump is by no means the better result for the UK, well at least it depends how you voted in the Brexit referendum.

If Trump wins it'll be a No Deal with Europe (as Trump has made it clear the only way for the UK to get a free trade deal with the US is by not following EU laws on standards etc)

If Biden wins it'll be a basic trade deal with the EU with NI following EU rules (as Biden and the democrats have made it clear no US trade deal if they put in jeopardy the Good Friday Agreement)

 

[Bada-Bing!]

And we mustn't forget about the Senate and House races.

 

[ncurd]

And we mustn't forget about the Senate and House races.

If I'm read right the House isn't really going going to change hands unless something bannana's happens. The senate is very very tight.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

If I'm read right the House isn't really going going to change hands unless something bannana's happens. The senate is very very tight.

That's how I understand it as well. But ending up with Biden POTUS, Republican held Senate, House -Democrat wouldn't suprise me. Added to that a Conservative SOTUS. That just means deadlock.