A Political Thread pt. 2

[ncurd]

So after talking to the OBR they still won't publish the reports until November.

Which can only mean their damning as hell.

 

[Reiser99]

So after talking to the OBR they still won't publish the reports until November.

Which can only mean their damning as hell.

Lies, they obviously completely validate the government's strategy and there is no need to publish them as everyone should know this already and trust this undemocratic, mandateless (is that a word. I'm going with it's a word) government on this car crash of a strategy.

 

[General Melchett]

Shades of the Sue Gray / Met reports again. Truss is certainly the continuity candidate.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Labour and Tory being staunchly FPTP makes sense for them
Lib Dem, Green and other smaller national parties being staunchly PR makes sense for them

I really wonder if the highly progressive SNP would be prepared to actually stick to their liberal principles and support PR or if their ridiculous over-representation due to FPTP is too good to give up.

Labour conference just voted for PR for the first time, but it'll be vetoed by Keir - such is party democracy in action. The UK is dancing with the devil keeping this voting system in that gives the keys to the car to detritus like Truss and Boris (or the worse that may follow).

I doubt the SNP care so much about FPTP overrepresentation to want to retain it. Westminster is so undemocratic that whether the SNP have 50 seats or 25 seats they'll still have zero possibility of influencing government policy against a completely unrepresentative government majority.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

It reminds me of a friends 'honeymoon period', where his honeymoon suite in Italy had a scorpion infestation.

Still, UK officially out of recession under Truss's watch. Maybe she has the golden touch after all.

UK not in recession, new figures suggest

The economy grew in the second quarter of this year, but it remains smaller than pre-Covid levels.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Suggestions 1k to 3k Russian troops have left it too late to flee Lyman and have effectively been encircled. Happy Annexation Day!

Ukraine tells Russia to appeal if it wants imperilled troops freed

Ukraine said on Friday it had all the supply routes to the Russian stronghold of Lyman in the crosshairs of its artillery in the east, and told Moscow it would have to appeal to Kyiv if it wanted its forces to be allowed out.

www.reuters.com

Kind of bizarre over pipeline attacks unless the intent is to warn of attacks on other pipelines and use this nonsense as pretext. Otherwise it favours much of NATO who didnt want gas bypassing Ukraine anyway.

Also some of the Stans, primarily Kazahkstan, are finding the balls to publicly criticise Russia (denouncing referendums, happily taking Russian refugees). I suspect China has given them some assurances of security as this seems very bold.

 

[Which Tyler]

Also some of the Stans, primarily Kazahkstan, are finding the balls to publicly criticise Russia (denouncing referendums, happily taking Russian refugees). I suspect China has given them some assurances of security as this seems very bold.

It'll be a combination of assurances from China, and the recent demonstration of Russian military incompetence. Putin's not exactly making himself feared on the world stage

 

[McTallshort]

Suggestions 1k to 3k Russian troops have left it too late to flee Lyman and have effectively been encircled. Happy Annexation Day!

Ukraine tells Russia to appeal if it wants imperilled troops freed

Ukraine said on Friday it had all the supply routes to the Russian stronghold of Lyman in the crosshairs of its artillery in the east, and told Moscow it would have to appeal to Kyiv if it wanted its forces to be allowed out.

www.reuters.com

Kind of bizarre over pipeline attacks unless the intent is to warn of attacks on other pipelines and use this nonsense as pretext. Otherwise it favours much of NATO who didnt want gas bypassing Ukraine anyway.

Also some of the Stans, primarily Kazahkstan, are finding the balls to publicly criticise Russia (denouncing referendums, happily taking Russian refugees). I suspect China has given them some assurances of security as this seems very bold.

Kazakhstan is trying to very hard at democracy and hasn't been very comfortable with Russia for a while but always feared it's military which as @Which Tyler pointed out has been shown to be completely useless.

Regards Lyman, this has been a very tough and brutal fight and I could see this being the end of Ukrainian offensives before winter.

 

[Which Tyler]

Kazakhstan is trying to very hard at democracy and hasn't been very comfortable with Russia for a while but always feared it's military which as @Which Tyler pointed out has been shown to be completely useless.

Regards Lyman, this has been a very tough and brutal fight and I could see this being the end of Ukrainian offensives before winter.

I think that if Ukraine can pinch it off at Zarichne, they'll be happy with that. If they can get Kreminina as well, they'll be absolutely delighted.

Further North, I expect them to at leasst try to secure the area between the Oskil and the Zherebets; but I suspect that's too much to ask in the time available. Having said that of course, there's a nice juicey, trunk road runing up the Eastern edge of the Oskil lakes, so they could potentially make some progress up that way, depending on how well defended those villages are.

 

[McTallshort]

I think that if Ukraine can pinch it off at Zarichne, they'll be happy with that. If they can get Kreminina as well, they'll be absolutely delighted.

Further North, I expect them to at leasst try to secure the area between the Oskil and the Zherebets; but I suspect that's too much to ask in the time available. Having said that of course, there's a nice juicey, trunk road runing up the Eastern edge of the Oskil lakes, so they could potentially make some progress up that way, depending on how well defended those villages are.

Would have loved them to take Kherson and turn the water off to the Crimea again but they have done fantastically well. The September offensive in the North was absolutely top draw for an Army that's never been on the offensive before and using old donated western vehicles. Surprised me and I'm glad they did.

 

[Which Tyler]

Would have loved them to take Kherson and turn the water off to the Crimea again but they have done fantastically well. The September offensive in the North was absolutely top draw for an Army that's never been on the offensive before and using old donated western vehicles. Surprised me and I'm glad they did.

Russia seem to be getting supplies into Kherson again - not just over that lock, but apparently also got a pipeline in place for stuff (but not humans) - so Kherson's going to have to wait for another day.

Secure up the the Zeberets, and then see where Russia put people and supplies over the winter; find a weak spot, and push through wherever that may be - if I had to guess, that'd either be North Luhansk again, or North of Melitopol - but I can't see even the Russians being that stupid there.

Another factor that's going to change things, is that the new Ukrainian recruits, will have another 6 months of training before the Spring; and may well return from NATO training camps with more equipment as well; but we can't really make any estimnates on that until we see some evidence. Who knows, Ukraine might even be a NATO member by then!

 

[Al Bangor]

 

[Which Tyler]

Update for September 29-30 — Ukraine Daily Update

Putin is a lunatic, Russia has no respect for human life, Ukraine has access to much more deadly weapons, and Lyman is falling.

www.ukrdailyupdate.com

Some "highlights"

Speaking of catastrophic casualties, Ukraine intercepted a transmission of a Russian platoon leader asking for a medivac for his wounded men. Instead, his commander told him to bury the wounded. When the platoon leader pushed back, the commander said he didn't care and that this was an order for everyone. Yes, a direct order to bury wounded men.

I have very little clarity about the situation around Kupyansk. I have the feeling not much has changed.
However, I have heard that Ukraine continues to cause massive, truly horrific casualties to Russia in this area. I do not believe Ukraine has much incentive to move from its positions. Instead, they watch Russians move into known defensive positions and then destroy them with artillery. Then watch another group go in. Over and over again. As I stated earlier, Russia is not medivacking the wounded. The casualties are enormous and, without medical care, even moderate wounds become lethal.

 

[McTallshort]

Update for September 29-30 — Ukraine Daily Update

Putin is a lunatic, Russia has no respect for human life, Ukraine has access to much more deadly weapons, and Lyman is falling.

www.ukrdailyupdate.com

Some "highlights"

I know we are talking about an invading army but that sounds proper grim.

 

[Which Tyler]

I know we are talking about an invading army but that sounds proper grim.

It comes to something when you think they should be being prosecuted for war crimes against their own men too!


Warning, don't follow this link if you are a compassionate sort - I had to wuss out after about 4 paragraphs

“its a slaughter”

3:32pm, September 30th, San Francisco1:32am, October 1st, Eastern Ukraine Moved north. its a slaughter cut them off west of kreminna. got to go. Stay safe. Lyman totally cut off? I think so, engadg…

ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com

 

[McTallshort]

It comes to something when you think they should be being prosecuted for war crimes against their own men too!


Warning, don't follow this link if you are a compassionate sort - I had to wuss out after about 4 paragraphs

“its a slaughter”

3:32pm, September 30th, San Francisco1:32am, October 1st, Eastern Ukraine Moved north. its a slaughter cut them off west of kreminna. got to go. Stay safe. Lyman totally cut off? I think so, engadg…

ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com

Reads like a Sven Hassel book.

 

[Reiser99]

Ukraine liberating Lyman as Russians retreat to avoid being encircled.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Kadyrov calling for "low yield" nuclear strikes on Ukrainian forces

 

[McTallshort]

Kadyrov calling for "low yield" nuclear strikes on Ukrainian forces

Let's hope the wind is blowing towards Chechnya

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Kadyrov calling for "low yield" nuclear strikes on Ukrainian forces

Regardless of whether it is just posturing or not, the fact that top Russian officials will this casually throw around possible use of nukes is ******* insane. To even contemplate bringing about the end of the world over a damaged ego is up there with some of the biggest maniacs who have ever lived. Even some of the most die hard Russian nationalists must realise any use of nukes is a death sentence for Russia. In what world do they think they would come out of using nukes better off!? At the very least it would bring NATO directly into the war immediately, put the world on a state of nuclear alert that hasn't been seen since the Cuban missile crisis and, assuming it didn't result in any further WMD usage, would definitely see the world turn on Russia and have them kicked out of Ukraine.

It could also indicate that there are some serious problems in Russia, that they are playing such brinksmanship because losing in Ukraine means the fall of the Putin regime.