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A Political Thread pt. 2

Which Tyler

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The current successes for the Ukrainian army are about the only thing making me smile at the minute. The map I saw showed them advanced than that but like you said it's better to wait 24 hours for confirmation
Yeah, there's a lot of misinformation out there; confusion between Ukrainian forces vs partisans; scouts / special op.s vs control etc etc; even plenty of confusion between "Russia have withdrawn from" and "Ukraine now controls".

I've pretty much narrowed things down to half a dozen or so sources who are all reasonably cautious, and separate between rumour, sources, and geo-located photographic evidence. It typically means that I'm 1-2 days ahead of official announcements, but about 1 day, or 2 villages, behind actual movements on the ground.

It's also why I've been putting together my own googlemap for the roads, rivers and rail; so that I can see if reports pass a sniff test, and can try to judge how far they're likely to go before hitting another line of defence, or (for example, with Kupyansk, where several people though Ukraine were aiming for Izyum) where there's an "obvious" strategic target try to take.

Currently, for example, there's lots of talk about Ukraine trying to take Davydiv Brid - but I'm not convinced. I think they're pinning the Russians down there, so that those troops can't go and reinforce to the East; but Bruskynske looks a much more inviting target, with much less fortification around it (or just control of the road at Bruskynske, rather than necessarily taking the village itself), and would completely screw Russia's ability to get supplies (and troop rotations) into the DB area.
Consider dusk tonight with Ukrainians in control of Bruskynske and Dudchany, and look at the map above - it leaves Russia with a single route out from a nice little pincer of 1,000 km2. If the Russians then choose not to run away - special forces would have a 10km trek across high ground (mostly farm tracks + 1 field), to set up a turkey shoot on that single road.
Of course, if they go down to Mylove on the Eastern flank there; then that single road is also cut off - and I'm pretty sure Russia have Mylove as their rallying point - if I'm right there, then Ukraine would want to stop short, and not risk too many of their own lives; "just" bring up their artillery, and pound them a bit first.
Some people are pointing to Beryslav as being the Ukrainian target (off the map above, about 25km along the road from the further S I bothered including) - and I'm sure they'd love it; but that seems... overoptimistic to me - and would be a pincer movement all of it's own. If Russian forces just panic and run away (as the first few days of the Kharkiv offensive) then yeah, but these are better troops with better defensive positions.
 
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Tallshort

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Yeah, there's a lot of misinformation out there; confusion between Ukrainian forces vs partisans; scouts / special op.s vs control etc etc; even plenty of confusion between "Russia have withdrawn from" and "Ukraine now controls".

I've pretty much narrowed things down to half a dozen or so sources who are all reasonably cautious, and separate between rumour, sources, and geo-located photographic evidence. It typically means that I'm 1-2 days ahead of official announcements, but about 1 day, or 2 villages, behind actual movements on the ground.

It's also why I've been putting together my own googlemap for the roads, rivers and rail; so that I can see if reports pass a sniff test, and can try to judge how far they're likely to go before hitting another line of defence, or (for example, with Kupyansk, where several people though Ukraine were aiming for Izyum) where there's an "obvious" strategic target try to take.

Currently, for example, there's lots of talk about Ukraine trying to take Davydiv Brid - but I'm not convinced. I think they're pinning the Russians down there, so that those troops can't go and reinforce to the East; but Bruskynske looks a much more inviting target, with much less fortification around it (or just control of the road at Bruskynske, rather than necessarily taking the village itself), and would completely screw Russia's ability to get supplies (and troop rotations) into the DB area.
Consider dusk tonight with Ukrainians in control of Bruskynske and Dudchany, and look at the map above - it leaves Russia with a single route out from a nice little pincer of 1,000 km2. If the Russians then choose not to run away - special forces would have a 10km trek across high ground (mostly farm tracks + 1 field), to set up a turkey shoot on that single road.
Of course, if they go down to Mylove on the Eastern flank there; then that single road is also cut off - and I'm pretty sure Russia have Mylove as their rallying point - if I'm right there, then Ukraine would want to stop short, and not risk too many of their own lives; "just" bring up their artillery, and pound them a bit first.
If Mylove was taken the Russians to the North East would be proper ******. Wonder if there is a river crossing point there (ferry or pontoon bridge).

Also need to not get to carried away with taking territory. The Ukrainians should and I am sure will be giving priority to actually defeating the Russians in the field in a series of pitched battles like they did in Lyman (although alot of Russian units did escape). I am trying to get a source for Russian prisoner and casualty numbers as well as captured equipment. This will give a better picture of how the Russians are performing than in ground lost or gained.
 

Ragey Erasmus

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If Mylove was taken the Russians to the North East would be proper ******. Wonder if there is a river crossing point there (ferry or pontoon bridge).

Also need to not get to carried away with taking territory. The Ukrainians should and I am sure will be giving priority to actually defeating the Russians in the field in a series of pitched battles like they did in Lyman (although alot of Russian units did escape). I am trying to get a source for Russian prisoner and casualty numbers as well as captured equipment. This will give a better picture of how the Russians are performing than in ground lost or gained.
Me with my non-existent military expertise would think that Ukraine will be targeting supplies still and looking at forcing retreats / surrenders rather than pitched battles. I doubt Russians care all that much about whether they do or don't control territory in a foreign country. They almost certainly do care about losing equipment and a kill count that keeps rising. Also anything that appears as an "embarrassment" to them. Russians being overwhelmed in a direct assault can be portrayed as a great last stand. Russians being surrounded and then fleeing / surrendering is more of a hit to national pride when they love to portray themselves as the hard men of Europe.

I think Russia rushing conscripts into battle could actually play out worse for them than doing nothing at all. The conscripts will put more stress on the supply lines and any area with a heavy conscript presence will only give a false sense of security, chances are they will crumble. Even the most deluded Russians will see their own being sent in droves to just die or be captured. It could be a massive propaganda victory for Ukraine, especially if they treat the prisoners well. Winning the war of words with Russia and embarrassing the regime in Russia is almost as important as winning militarily. This realistically needs to end not just with the liberation of Ukraine but the downfall of Putin.

If Ukraine can foster a sense of "gratitude", for want of a better word, among the PoWs they capture, they will spread that when they return to Russia, despite what their propaganda campaign may say. You can't get thousands to all tell the same very easily demonstrably false lie.
 
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Tallshort

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Me with my non-existent military expertise would think that Ukraine will be targeting supplies still and looking at forcing retreats / surrenders rather than pitched battles. I doubt Russians care all that much about whether they do or don't control territory in a foreign country. They almost certainly do care about losing equipment and a kill count that keeps rising. Also anything that appears as an "embarrassment" to them. Russians being overwhelmed in a direct assault can be portrayed as a great last stand. Russians being surrounded and then fleeing / surrendering is more of a hit to national pride when they love to portray themselves as the hard men of Europe.
No that's not what a pitched battle is. A pitched battle is when you plan to engage and defeat an enemy at a time and place of your choosing. So for example Lyman, this was an important transport hub but also had large numbers of Russian forces stationed there. So the Ukrainian forces planned to surround and destroy (this includes surrendering) those Russian forces. Lyman itself was only important because the Russians considered it important and concentrated lots of forces there. To the Ukrainian army it was an opportunity to destroy the bulk of the Russian forces in the north.

This is what is really important, destroying the enemies ability to fight by destroying it's command and control, it's logistics and forces on the ground, not liberating towns and villages. Look at the Russian July offensives, lots of shelling and creeping gains so Moscow could claim some sort of victory when Lurhansk was "liberated". All they had really done was occupy a couple of potato fields and bombed out towns. At no point had they decisively beaten the Ukraine forces who just withdrew to fight another day.
 
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Ragey Erasmus

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Who had "Tory wants to bring back slavery" on their bingo card?
The go-to deflection trump card for any right wing government, blame benefit scroungers and act like they are a massive problem rather than a minority of cases. Most cases of people cheating the system could be solved by properly funding the admin behind checking those who are on benefits but much easier to grossly underfund the system and put blanket restrictions on everyone. This lot are always suspiciously silent when asked just how much wealthy tax dodgers cost us compared to benefit scroungers.

People have also deluded themselves into thinking you can live a life of luxury on benefits, it's nonsense. You have to jump through a stupid number of hoops to get any funding and you don't even get enough to live on at the end of it. But it works for a bit of divide and conquer among the masses, making out YOU are the good, honest, hard working Brit but THEY over there are lazy scroungers who are leeching off your taxes whilst lazing about with their 100 inch TVs, takeaways every day and a new car every year. It's absolute ******** that a shockingly large number of people swallow, despite it being on of the most blatant deflection tactics in the book (after the more traditional tried and tested blaming foreigners).
 

Reiser99

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Not quite slavery. Main issue for me is it highlights the general attitude of the conservatives which is to address short term symptoms rather than addressing the cause of the problem.
 

Bada-Bing!

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Not quite slavery. Main issue for me is it highlights the general attitude of the conservatives which is to address short term symptoms rather than addressing the cause of the problem.
Populism in a nutshell.
 

TRF_Olyy

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Shorted the pound, budget comes out and makes a ton - longs the pound, Government reverse position, makes a ton

Nothing dodgy there at all
 

Which Tyler

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Not quite slavery. Main issue for me is it highlights the general attitude of the conservatives which is to address short term symptoms rather than addressing the cause of the problem.
Sorry, you're right, he's not talking talking about ownership of other humans (yet)
"forced labor" then, better?
 

Welsh Exile

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I saw that Labour are odds on to win the next election and you can get 2/1 on the Tories. Easy money that. Might put a few quid on the Tories now to soften the blow when they walk back into office in a couple of years.
 

Which Tyler

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Same thing as a tweet thread, for those who prefer that



ETA:
Looks like these (and a few others) videos confirm that the Kupyansk and Borova advances have met since AP posted that round-up (or confirmation came after his round-up):


Would pretty much confirm that Russia have withdrawn to the East side of the Zherebets - probably the rally point at Svatove



In Kherson, the Anrkhangelsk troops have expanded their area of control bother Eastwards and Southwards - again indicating that the Russian withdrawal to Mylove (or possibly yet Dudchany - I can't see why Russia would abandon that one - at least, not yet) is real, not misinformation.

 
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Ragey Erasmus

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Elon, shut the **** up


Musk is such a ******* idiot. Let's ignore all the Ukrainian loyalists who have now left these regions, ignore the fact that fair elections simply will not happen with Russian presence, ignore that Russia displaced the natives of Crimea and replaced then with Russians, ignore that Crimea was recognised as per of the new state of Ukraine by Russia when the USSR collapsed...

Not surprised at all that musk is shilling for the Russians. The best Ukraine gets out of that is the status quo prior to Russian invasion, best Russia gets is huge chunks of Ukraine and Ukraine being denied protection so Russia can repeat a third time.
 

TRF_Olyy

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Musk is such a ******* idiot. Let's ignore all the Ukrainian loyalists who have now left these regions, ignore the fact that fair elections simply will not happen with Russian presence, ignore that Russia displaced the natives of Crimea and replaced then with Russians, ignore that Crimea was recognised as per of the new state of Ukraine by Russia when the USSR collapsed...

Not surprised at all that musk is shilling for the Russians. The best Ukraine gets out of that is the status quo prior to Russian invasion, best Russia gets is huge chunks of Ukraine and Ukraine being denied protection so Russia can repeat a third time.
Saw in the comments underneath that his altruistic, massively generous and kind hearted gift of the star link systems to Ukraine...were completely paid for by the US Government

So while he's been banging the drum about how great he is it turns out it was just the US buying his equipment and giving it to Ukraine
 

Which Tyler

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Davidy Brid's been liberated



Which makes the retreat along the Dnipro all the way to Mylove most realistic then (or even Beryslav) - no particular need to waste lives in Dudchany if it's a supply route to... nowhere.

You'd think they'd still be good choke points to kill Ukrainians, but Russian morale I guess (of course, it would only be a holding action given that they've walked away from Davydiv Brid now).

Next is an "essential" defense at Beryslav - where the 2 main roads meet up, and there's a crossing over the Dnipro at Nova Khakova - and control of the entire water supply to Crimea...
It's essential, but not easily defensible.

Next actually defensible point would be the Inhulets estuary, I guess.
Break the line at Stanislav &/ Kyselivka, and that's got to be game over for the Russians in Kherson.
 
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The Oggmonster

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I despise Cruella Braverman already. Plenty anti foreigner rhetoric and accusing MPs of a coup at a party conference?! That's just going to widen the divisions not heal them. What a muppet.
 

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