A Political Thread pt. 2

[Which Tyler]

You kind of answer your own question tbh. If pubs aren't willing to pay a decent wage and people don't do the jobs then they'll be forced to pay higher to attract staff.

However you d raise a good question about wages because I can definitely see some companies trying to lower the wages they pay in order to increase profits and use UBI as a justification. You could still have a minimum wage, especially as based on Which Tyler's calculations the money is coming from existing taxes and revenue and is just being redistributed. I think the idea of UBI is that people won't be desperate for a job so employers actually have to pay more to incentivise people to come and work for them.

Exactly, a huge part of the point behind UBI is so that people can be more fulfilled at work, probably work fewer, more flexible hours, be generally happier and potentially more productive / risk taking in things that my not pay.
If you've got UBI, you can afford to go part-time, and put hours into your hobby which pays but not well (enough, initially).
No-one HAS to take a job that makes them miserable just to put food on the table (or own a table).

 

[Reiser99]

huge amount of public good will.

This is the biggest issue. Electing a government that would do it. Any critics who would be hurt financially by UBI will portray it as an attack on people's wealth and while many people might not be worse off or many people would actually be better off, it is very hard to make people focus on what they could have, rather on what they have now that they could lose. There is also the simple fact that many people are selfish and wouldn't accept a slight reduction in income even if it meant the country was better off as a whole and they had more income security if they ever lost their job.

 

[ncurd]

This is the biggest issue. Electing a government that would do it. Any critics who would be hurt financially by UBI will portray it as an attack on people's wealth and while many people might not be worse off or many people would actually be better off, it is very hard to make people focus on what they could have, rather on what they have now that they could lose. There is also the simple fact that many people are selfish and wouldn't accept a slight reduction in income even if it meant the country was better off as a whole and they had more income security if they ever lost their job.

Well the main example is Brexit where people were sunny days and bought it with a lack of evidence of how. So it can be done, still bloody hard work mind.

 

[Which Tyler]

This is the biggest issue. Electing a government that would do it. Any critics who would be hurt financially by UBI will portray it as an attack on people's wealth and while many people might not be worse off or many people would actually be better off, it is very hard to make people focus on what they could have, rather on what they have now that they could lose. There is also the simple fact that many people are selfish and wouldn't accept a slight reduction in income even if it meant the country was better off as a whole and they had more income security if they ever lost their job.

No-one would automatically see their income reduce though - even if it went hand-in-hand with a reduction of the minumum wage (which is a valid discussion point).
If you previously had a part-time job, earning £6k; you'd now have a part-time job earning £6k + £10k UBI - £1.2k income tax - so your income is up by 146%
If you previously had a full-time job, earning £24k; you'd now have a full-time job earning £24k + £10k UBI - £2k extra income tax - so your income is up by 33% - unless you WANTED to reduce your hours
If you previously had a full--time job earning £80k; you'd now have a full-time job earning £80k + £10k UBI - £2k extra income tax - so your income is up by 8% - unless you WANTED to reduce your hours

Which means that there's more money in circulation, being spent and taxed... Or, people are working fewer hours, probably being happier, and probably more productive outside of work - be that charity volunteering, following your dream to be an author, or start a small business that was too big a risk before.

Of course, there will be unintended consequences, and plenty of other consequences that can be worked through in terms of expectations. My recent realisation was that it's far from being the unaffordable luxury I'd previously assumed it to be.

The huge complication is you have completely rework the tax system, basically corporation tax, NI and income tax has to be completely rehauled to accommodate this.

Why? before running the maths, I'd assumed that; but as is, it doesn't HAVE to be done.
Now, I would anyway, and there's plenty to be gamed out about it which may well lead to that conclusion - but that's a worthy discussion in itself.

If this many people want to run with this - is it worth a thread of its own?

 

[Reiser99]

No-one would automatically see their income reduce though - even if it went hand-in-hand with a reduction of the minumum wage (which is a valid discussion point).
If you previously had a part-time job, earning £6k; you'd now have a part-time job earning £6k + £10k UBI - £1.2k income tax - so your income is up by 146%
If you previously had a full-time job, earning £24k; you'd now have a full-time job earning £24k + £10k UBI - £2k extra income tax - so your income is up by 33% - unless you WANTED to reduce your hours
If you previously had a full--time job earning £80k; you'd now have a full-time job earning £80k + £10k UBI - £2k extra income tax - so your income is up by 10% - unless you WANTED to reduce your hours

Which means that there's more money in circulation, being spent and taxed... Or, people are working fewer hours, probably being happier, and probably more productive outside of work - be that charity volunteering, following your dream to be an author, or start a small business that was too big a risk before.

Agreed, my point though is convincing people that this is the situation, because others will spin it as an attack on people's wealth. My worry is that people would focus more on protecting what they do have, rather than focusing on what they could have.

 

[ncurd]

Why? before running the maths, I'd assumed that; but as is, it doesn't HAVE to be done.
Now, I would anyway, and there's plenty to be gamed out about it which may well lead to that conclusion - but that's a worthy discussion in itself.

If this many people want to run with this - is it worth a thread of its own?

I think it depends on your view on what UBI is. If it's to replace tax free income (which most sell it as) it does require an overhaul. If it's on top of current income as you suggested then it doesn't minus a few tweaks hear then (probably minimum wage and tax free threshold).

However I also suspect that saying your going to give everyone 12k a year for life on top of thier wages. It's going to be a far harder sell no matter how much reality there is in your numbers.



On a side note does anyone find it a bemusing how twitter is going nuts over Hancock. If he'd illegally given out the contracts it would be one thing but the department only just published them late which was illegal. It feels like people trying to make.anything stick to this government where there are bigger fish to fry like investigating how they were given out in the first place.

 

[Which Tyler]

I think it depends on your view on what UBI is. If it's to replace tax free income (which most sell it as) it does require an overhaul. If it's on top of current income as you suggested then it doesn't minus a few tweaks hear then (probably minimum wage and tax free threshold).

Sorry, not quite sure what you mean.
UBI is a cheque from the government to every man woman and child with a national insurance number. It is tax-free in and of itself. Or you could call it taxble, and contributing to the personal allowance I guess. I'm not really seeing the difference beyond semantics.
The "overhaul" I see it needing is that the personal allowance is removed from the tax equation. Every penny you earn through paid work is taxed, with the existing tax brackets left alone (or rather, the thresholds reduced by £12k).
FTR though, I got my maths wrong above as I was being lazy/distracted. Of course, those in the higher tax bracket would be paying 40% on their extra £10k, not 20%.
Between all of that, of course, the tax take should actually increase with UBI, partly automatically like that, and partly because we're vastly increasing the amount of disposable income amongst those most likely to spend it rather than hoard it.

Agreed, my point though is convincing people that this is the situation, because others will spin it as an attack on people's wealth. My worry is that people would focus more on protecting what they do have, rather than focusing on what they could have.

Of course, if enacted by the current government, it would probably be farmed out to a brand-new private firm, set up by Priti Patel's husband (does she have a husband? is she straight? do I give a damn?) in his garage; and given the £700B to hand out, and somehow manage to pocket £500B out of it, whilst handing out £200B

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I am also all for a UBI. I think tax system wise the system definitely.

Per my CTA notes and to give you an idea how much the Govt raised in tax revenue. In the 2017/18 tax year the Government raised £594B from the tax system; made up of:

31% was income tax or £184B;

22% was NIC or £131B

VAT accounted for: 21% or £124B

CT : accounted for 10% or £59B

8% or £48B made up of duties - on alcohol, Petrol and tobacco and levies coming into UK pre Brexit.

Remaining 8% from capital taxes and green taxes or another £48B on CGT, Annual tax on Enveloped dwellings, IHT, SDLT. Green taxes included aggregates levy and air passenger duty.

How much of that is spent on interest and the rest of Govt. expenditure on borrowing to fund this pandemic, especially as tax receipts have taken a massive hammering this 2020/21 tax year we'll find out on 3 March.

Interest rates being at an historic all time low means this is the time if borrow to get the economy back on its feet. Read in the ST today CT rates for companies will start increasing to 23% for the rest of the parliament from 19%.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

No-one would automatically see their income reduce though - even if it went hand-in-hand with a reduction of the minumum wage (which is a valid discussion point).
If you previously had a part-time job, earning £6k; you'd now have a part-time job earning £6k + £10k UBI - £1.2k income tax - so your income is up by 146%
If you previously had a full-time job, earning £24k; you'd now have a full-time job earning £24k + £10k UBI - £2k extra income tax - so your income is up by 33% - unless you WANTED to reduce your hours
If you previously had a full--time job earning £80k; you'd now have a full-time job earning £80k + £10k UBI - £2k extra income tax - so your income is up by 8% - unless you WANTED to reduce your hours

Which means that there's more money in circulation, being spent and taxed... Or, people are working fewer hours, probably being happier, and probably more productive outside of work - be that charity volunteering, following your dream to be an author, or start a small business that was too big a risk before.

Of course, there will be unintended consequences, and plenty of other consequences that can be worked through in terms of expectations. My recent realisation was that it's far from being the unaffordable luxury I'd previously assumed it to be.


Why? before running the maths, I'd assumed that; but as is, it doesn't HAVE to be done.
Now, I would anyway, and there's plenty to be gamed out about it which may well lead to that conclusion - but that's a worthy discussion in itself.

If this many people want to run with this - is it worth a thread of its own?

I just think the problem with this is the idea that the UBI will simply be added to what people are already paid, I don't think that will be the case. If you are being paid £6k and then you get a UBI of 10k, I think the employer will turn around and say you don't need to be paid 6k any more. If however the scenario presents does happen, that means disposable income has risen, everyone can now pay more for stuff which means inflation will rapidly start rising. The standard method to tackle rampant inflation is high interest rates. Considering the record levels of borrowing, that could severely damage the economy. Otherwise what happens is inflation rises and largely wipes out the gains of UBI, so UBI rises again so inflation rises and so on.

Don't get me wrong, I'm in favour of some sort of base level earning that all people get but I just don't think it's quite as simple as having UBI and then whatever earning you had before slapped on top of that.

There is a balance somewhere between everyone having enough to live, spend the time they need to find a suitable job but also making it so the low wage work is still worth it and to not have rampant inflation wiping out the UBI.

 

[Which Tyler]

Which is the sort of discussion I'd like to see.
Of course, the employer may turn around and say "you don't need tobe paid £6k anymore" and equally, the employee can say "You can take your £6k and shove it up your arse; I'm not working for less than £10k"

Yes with a reset in income levels across the nation, there would be a reset in inflation and interest rates - where this would end, I have no idea, or way of knowing.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Happy 10th anniversary Larry in number 10.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

In the latest string of pathetic attack segments, various right wing outlets have accused the Bidens of not taking care of their dogs (saying they don't look presidential), and that Joe & Jill's marriage and signs of affection are all a huge publicity stunt and not genuine...

Just WTF is wrong with the American right wing?

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

In the latest string of pathetic attack segments, various right wing outlets have accused the Bidens of not taking care of their dogs (saying they don't look presidential), and that Joe & Jill's marriage and signs of affection are all a huge publicity stunt and not genuine...

Just WTF is wrong with the American right wing?

Wait did I completely imagine them saying that about trump and Melania then yeah?

No hypocrisy there at all...

 

[TRF_Olyy]

They're two sides of the same coin,
Once you start viewing politics as a team sport and you only care about your team winning - not people representing you and your views/ideals, then you're a lost cause.

The whole "If Hillary Won We'd Be At Brunch Right Now" crowd don't care about helping the average Joe, they just care about taking pot shots at the opposition.

All the rich blue tick democrats making snarky tweets about "Oh how great is it that politics is boring again" while the country disintegrates around them

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Wait did I completely imagine them saying that about trump and Melania then yeah?

No hypocrisy there at all...

Just because 2 sides make the same accusation doesn't mean the context is the same. The same could be said about the accusations of not taking care of the dogs. Cruz leaves his alone in a house with no heating and nobody to take care of it, that is not the equivalent of the Biden's dog where there doesn't appear to be any basis behind the claim.

You really want to claim the state of Trump and Biden's marriage is even equivalent?

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Just because 2 sides make the same accusation doesn't mean the context is the same. The same could be said about the accusations of not taking care of the dogs. Cruz leaves his alone in a house with no heating and nobody to take care of it, that is not the equivalent of the Biden's dog where there doesn't appear to be any basis behind the claim.

You really want to claim the state of Trump and Biden's marriage is even equivalent?

I wouldn't claim to know the state of either of their marriages. Are you not basically saying you agree with the criticism of Trump's because you happen to agree?

If so then you've gotta see that's playing a dangerous game

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I wouldn't claim to know the state of either of their marriages. Are you not basically saying you agree with the criticism of Trump's because you happen to agree?

If so then you've gotta see that's playing a dangerous game

Not at all but the claims about Trumps marriage were from the repeated scenes of coldness shown by Melania towards Trump. The accusations against Biden are being made as affection is being shown and claiming the whole thing is therefore a hoax. One is based on an observation of the interactions between 2 people, the other is based on pure fiction where what can be observed is the exact opposite. Trump marries a model to replace another model and has a history of cheating in his marriages and of divorces, Joe Biden has been with Jill for decades.

Those 2 scenarios are not the same.

It's less about the fact they are targeting his marriage and more the fact they are literally making any bullshit up on the spot with absolutely no basis as a means to attack. You think the accusations against Trump were based on nothing?

 

[Which Tyler]

In the latest string of pathetic attack segments, various right wing outlets have accused the Bidens of not taking care of their dogs (saying they don't look presidential), and that Joe & Jill's marriage and signs of affection are all a huge publicity stunt and not genuine...

Just WTF is wrong with the American right wing?

The answer is - pretty much all accusations from the modern right are projections of their own "sins".


The liars shout "fake news"
The security risks shout "what about her emails"
The criminals shout "lock her up"
The sexual predator shouts "he's too touchy"
The corrupt shout "look who's funding him"
The guy with wannabe mafia kids shouts "look at his kid"
The biggest alligator in the swamp shouts "drain the swamp"
...
And on, and on it goes.

 

[Which Tyler]

Anyone heard about the Isle of Mann roundabout - the architects seem unimpressed?

https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk...nts-to-build-roundabout-under-the-isle-of-man

Another said the proposal 'cannot die' because of Johnson's fervent belief in it, adding: 'Just as Hitler moved around imaginary armies in the dying days of the Third Reich, so the No. 10 policy unit is condemned to keep looking at this idea, which exists primarily in the mind of the prime minister.'

Alan Dunlop, the architect who first proposed a Celtic crossing between Ireland and Scotland, said the latest idea 'does not sound credible'.

He said: 'I cannot think why Johnson would say that, particularly at a time when there is so much criticism being levelled at the prime minister and the so-called Boris's Burrow is being ridiculed in much of the press.

'It only serves to undermine that which I know to be structurally, technically and physically achievable, and that is a tunnel or bridge that connects Scotland with Ireland.'

I'm no structural engineer, but digging circa 300 miles through granite seems a tad tougher than 30 miles through chalk (Channel Tunnel) - whilst not connecting 2 of the biggest economies in the world and crossing the busiest sea lane in the world (Shush though don't tell Grayling)

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Anyone heard about the Isle of Mann roundabout - the architects seem unimpressed?

https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk...nts-to-build-roundabout-under-the-isle-of-man


I'm no structural engineer, but digging circa 300 miles through granite seems a tad tougher than 30 miles through chalk (Channel Tunnel) - whilst not connecting 2 of the biggest economies in the world and crossing the busiest sea lane in the world (Shush though don't tell Grayling)

Well I am a civil engineer and I think it looks like a ridiculous proposal. Johnson has a history of these huge "pet projects" and currently every one has either been ditched or been a failure. Connecting Scotland and N.Ireland with a bridge or tunnel could be beneficial and even from Wales to Ireland, the latter could potentially be used as part of a scheme to extent the rail network from London, past Liverpool and across N.Wales into Dublin. It would still be a huge undertaking but just looking at it, it seems you'd get all the same utility with less work.