A Political Thread pt. 2

[ncurd]

Any other leader would be 34 points ahead

 

[ncurd]

Oh it's get funnier.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Rationale behind abolition of 45p tax rate reflects failed ideology | Arun Advani, David Burgherr and Andy Summers

Figures show the cut to top tax rate will not reduce avoidance, bring people to the UK or make people work harder

www.theguardian.com

 

[Which Tyler]

Oh it's get funnier.

3? surely not even in our wildest dreams!

ETA: This sounds more believable, and is still hillarious



Tewkesbury would still be blue

 

[die_mole]

now we know why starmer is so staunchly pro-fptp

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

now we know why starmer is so staunchly pro-fptp

Labour and Tory being staunchly FPTP makes sense for them
Lib Dem, Green and other smaller national parties being staunchly PR makes sense for them

I really wonder if the highly progressive SNP would be prepared to actually stick to their liberal principles and support PR or if their ridiculous over-representation due to FPTP is too good to give up.

 

[ncurd]

3? surely not even in our wildest dreams!

ETA: This sounds more believable, and is still hillarious


Tewkesbury would still be blue

Diffrent modelling and boundaries so the 3 was real according to one another said 4 another 2. Problem with polls like that yougov one is it destroys models because the variance between historical data and current is wide you can predict at all where that surge in support will actually materialise.

One of the more interesting bits of data was 50% of LD voters last time out said they'd vote Lab. I know I'm in that group but I switched shortly after the 2019 election.

 

[Which Tyler]

Diffrent modelling and boundaries so the 3 was real according to one another said 4 another 2. Problem with polls like that yougov one is it destroys models because the variance between historical data and current is wide you can predict at all where that surge in support will actually materialise.

One of the more interesting bits of data was 50% of LD voters last time out said they'd vote Lab. I know I'm in that group but I switched shortly after the 2019 election.

Very fair point - at some stage thought, the modeller has to step in and say "come on"

I also think (and have always thought) you need bigger sample sizes to transfer percentage of vote to likely breakdown of seats - I know the models are bloody good, especially in more normal times, and contains a lot more data than we usually get to see, but predicting the breakdown of 650 parliamentary seats based on asking <2000 people what they think?

 

[Welsh Exile]

now we know why starmer is so staunchly pro-fptp

Yeah, Labour still think they can win a majority so turkey's won't vote for Christmas. They're going to be emboldened by these latest polls as well but I'm not getting excited yet.

Even if I concede that this is different and Labour can win a majority then look at what it takes for that to happen. Labour will have to rely on the Tories causing a zombie apocalypse every election cycle in order to win a majority, anything short of that and they're ******.

 

[Which Tyler]

Poland's foreign minister has now said that if Russia uses even a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, NATO should make it clear it will respond with a conventional strike mission, probably cruise missiles and air-launched weapons from outside Ukrainian territory aimed at specific Russian-held targets in Ukraine.

The idea seems to be not striking inarguable Russian soil and not using WMDs themselves but also launching a counterstrike on a large enough scale to deter further actions.

I'm comfortable with this idea, until....

Russian channels on Telegram are now (I'm told) suggesting that "losing" a confrontation against NATO is something they can accept but not against "inferior" Ukraine.

Which rather puckered my pucker

 

[Which Tyler]

Further highlights of Liz's tour of local radio stations:

 

[General Melchett]

I see that footage is emerging of Truss and Kwarteng wearing the obligatory illuminous yellow safety work overalls and glasses. Johnson used to do the same when the heat was on. Either that or a photo op visiting a hospital or school. I'm sure that'll make a dent in the polls. Pathetic.

 

[McTallshort]

Poland's foreign minister has now said that if Russia uses even a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, NATO should make it clear it will respond with a conventional strike mission, probably cruise missiles and air-launched weapons from outside Ukrainian territory aimed at specific Russian-held targets in Ukraine.

The idea seems to be not striking inarguable Russian soil and not using WMDs themselves but also launching a counterstrike on a large enough scale to deter further actions.

I'm comfortable with this idea, until....

Russian channels on Telegram are now (I'm told) suggesting that "losing" a confrontation against NATO is something they can accept but not against "inferior" Ukraine.

Which rather puckered my pucker

The inferior Ukraine who have effectively defeated the Professional Russian army, caused Russia to mobilize 300k men, faught and gained parity with an air force 10 times it's number and made its Black sea fleet hide behind the Crimea!

You wonder if the Russians are in as much denial as Liz Truss.

 

[Reiser99]

1

Further highlights of Liz's tour of local radio stations:

10 minutes of Liz Truss being useless, which is basically her being filmed for 10 minutes on a normal day.

 

[ncurd]

 

[Which Tyler]

On Ukraine - I know I keep posting maps of the Ukrainian advance; and have discussed targets and defensible points to halt and regroup etc - mostly by looking for things that google really doesn't want to show (rivers and railways) - so I've decided to "make" my own google map overlay showing those things. The issue is that to see these things on the maps, you have zoom so far in, you've lost track of what else is where.
I'm not going to make any attempt to keep track of the frontline, or contested areas etc; it's just something that can be seen in a separate tab, to make a little more sense of the tactical/logistical situation.

Sign in - Google Accounts

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

On Ukraine - I know I keep posting maps of the Ukrainian advance; and have discussed targets and defensible points to halt and regroup etc - mostly by looking for things that google really doesn't want to show (rivers and railways) - so I've decided to "make" my own google map overlay showing those things. The issue is that to see these things on the maps, you have zoom so far in, you've lost track of what else is where.
I'm not going to make any attempt to keep track of the frontline, or contested areas etc; it's just something that can be seen in a separate tab, to make a little more sense of the tactical/logistical situation.

Sign in - Google Accounts

https://youtube.com/c/RoadHomeMotorcycleVlogs
This guy does a running commentary on what is happening in Ukraine with maps

 

[Reiser99]

Cuts taxes for rich at a cost of £2 Billion.

Reduces benefits increase to save £5 Billion.

Yes the plan is fair for all. Unless you're poor, in which case it's not fair but at least you know the rich are getting something.

 

[Which Tyler]

https://youtube.com/c/RoadHomeMotorcycleVlogs
This guy does a running commentary on what is happening in Ukraine with maps

Oh, there are loads in terms of what's going on militarily, and I've got myself down to 3 mappers I follow who are both prompt, but actually fact checking things.

 

[General Melchett]

The mini budget is simply Truss implementing the pledges she made to Tory members and in no way benefits the country as a whole. It feels really undemocratic that we are being lumbered with policies that were only designed to win votes from old rich white Tory members.

The idea that it's a budget designed to increase growth is just a load of ********. It's almost like trying to build an extension on a house that is on fire. You put out the fire first (inflation, cost of living), repair the house and then build the extension.