A Political Thread

[Reiser99]

Just looking at elected MEP's elected so far.

Brexit Party + 15, but Conservatives -7 and UKIP -12. So 4 MEP's from leave parties have gone to remain parties.

 

[Reiser99]

Also don't agree with Alastair Campbell that remain parties will have a greater share of the vote than leave parties. He's assuming Labour is remain and you just can't do that. However definitely clear that neither side has won clearly and the issue is still as confused as before.

 

[Which Tyler]

257/737


Brx: 31.5%
LD: 20.4%
Lab: 13.7%
Grn: 12.1%
Con: 9.2%
SNP+PC: 4.8%


Pro-Brexit: 5.4M
Some deal*: 3.5M
Anti-Brexit: 6.2M

*though quite honestly, both are so disunited, and both are picking up votes for habit and non-brexit reasons, I still feel they can simply be ignored as brexit indications

 

[Reiser99]

Starting to get fed up of the pro-Brexit spin. Even on the BBC they are making out that this is a clear win for no deal. It's simply not.

 

[Which Tyler]

Starting to get fed up of the pro-Brexit spin. Even on the BBC they are making out that this is a clear win for no deal. It's simply not.

So far, it's looking like a bit of a failure for Farage (it won't be painted that way) he was supposed to get 37-38% of the vote, but looks like failing to reach 33%.
Of course, I expect everyone to forget those predictions PDQ so that they can proclaim the success of Farage's 5% swing (Be fair Aidan, UKIP kept 3%, so it's an 8% gain - will obviously be a lot more newsworthy than LibDem's 13% gain)

 

[Reiser99]

So far, it's looking like a bit of a failure for Farage (it won't be painted that way) he was supposed to get 37-38% of the vote, but looks like failing to reach 33%.
Of course, I expect everyone to forget those predictions PDQ so that they can proclaim the success of Farage's 5% swing.

Yep for me this shows that almost nothing has changed since the referendum and if anything the national poll that shows a slight change to remain is reflected by the fact that the Brexit party haven't gained all the former UKIP and Conservative votes. It also definitely doesn't show that there is a majority for no deal.

 

[Reiser99]

Also at the moment I make it 44% for leave to 40% for remain parties with 28 MEPs for leave and 20 MEPs for Remain. So it shows that leave has benefited from one party to focus on. However without definitely knowing what a Labour vote means, you can't say definitely how the country has voted.

 

[Which Tyler]

Also at the moment I make it 44% for leave to 40% for remain parties with 28 MEPs for leave and 20 MEPs for Remain. So it shows that leave has benefited from one party to focus on. However without definitely knowing what a Labour vote means, you can't say definitely how the country has voted.

Who are you counting for each? Because my counting was 5.4M Brexit Vs 6.2M Remain

 

[Reiser99]

Who are you counting for each? Because my counting was 5.4M Brexit Vs 6.2M Remain

So this is without Scotland's or Northern Ireland's full results.

Leave: Brexit Party, Conservatives, UKIP and English Democrats.
Total MEPs: 31 Percentage share of vote: 44.2% Number of votes: 7,333,753

Remain: Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid Cymru, SNP, Change UK and UK European Union Party.
Total MEPs: 23 Percentage share of vote: 40.5% Number of votes: 6,722,960

Unknown: Labour
Total MEPs: 10 Percentage share of vote: 14.1% Number of votes: 2,345,483

 

[Which Tyler]

356/373


Brx: 31.6%
LD: 20.3%
Lab: 14.1%
Grn: 12.1%
Con: 9.1%
SNP+PC: 4.6%


Leave: 5.8M
Remain: 6.7M

 

[Reiser99]

301/373


Brx: 31.6%
LD: 20.3%
Lab: 14.1%
Grn: 12.1%
Con: 9.1%
SNP+PC: 4.5%


Leave: 5.8M
Remain: 6.7M

I guess you are putting conservatives as middle ground, where as I have them as leave. This is the issue as you can't say people definitely voted under leave or remain.

 

[Which Tyler]

So this is without Scotland's or Northern Ireland's full results.

Ah, you're counting Con as firm Brexit - I'm leaving them (and labour) out as their pictures are too confused by in-fighting, habit, and non-Brexit issues.

I doubt that there are all that many Lab/Con voters who voted on Thursday in the basis of Brexit, and decided to vote Lab/Con

 

[Reiser99]

Ah, you're counting Con as firm Brexit - I'm leaving them (and labour) out as their pictures are too confused by in-fighting, habit, and non-Brexit issues.

I doubt that there are all that many Lab/Con voters who voted on Thursday in the basis of Brexit, and decided to vote Lab/Con

True, however it all confirms that the picture is still very confused and no clearer. You have leave vs remain, but then also remain vs no deal vs deal. You can't say what the people have voted for decisively.

 

[Which Tyler]

I played with putting the 2 of them in a group of their own for wanting a negotiated deal, but... It's just too complicated to boil either party down to any position on Brexit. The leaderhpships want a negotiated departure, but neither parliamentary parties do, and I think I'm right in saying that neither set of party members do.
IMO, if you count Con as pro-Brexit, you have to count labour as pro-Remain, and accept that both are wrong and water down the conclusions.

 

[Which Tyler]

MEPs (waiting for Scotland & NI), 2014 => 2019

Farage's ego, 23 => 28
Lib Dem, 1 => 15
Labour, 18 => 10
Green, 3 => 7
Conservative, 18 => 3
Plaid, 1 => 1

9 to be declared

 

[ncurd]

Have to say I be woken up pleasently surprised the no policy vote got less than everyone predicted and strong remain beat out strong Brexit of course D'Hondt meant the split vote meant more Brexity MEPs which was always the case.

Also Lab beat Con in the trad voted which I think is abetter sign for remain as well.

 

[ncurd]

Also net MEP gain was better for remain anyway also when you consider at the Europeans polls were still suggesting that an actual vote would lead to a Remain landslide.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

If these election results have shown anything Remain need to unite under one party and have a coherent message. All very well adding up the remain votes from each of the "remain" parties, but it's just too fragmented.

At least the Brexit party message of leave and under WTO terms is pretty clear cut. They will also have the most MEPs from UK to send to Brussels.

 

[ncurd]

I think Change UK needs to to dissolve it hasn't been a force for anything other than splitting the vote. That's because their management has been rubbish.

Green and Lib Dem need to work together and not compete for results.

I don't think they can really align with nationalist parties but I do think a they agree with us so don't really try in seats we can't win.

That leaves Lab and if they take this for Hard Remain or back a 2nd ref they'll get plenty of votes back. I think the LDs and Greens should work with them in areas without strong LD or Green support.


I think the clear takeaway is for them not to split the vote against each other. And I actually think both parties are willing.

 

[ncurd]

Supposedly more people signed the revoke article 50 petition than voted Brexit Party.


Also I know many people are saying a vote for Brexit is no deal....but where the evidence this is what they want?