A Political Thread

[Ragey Erasmus]

Amazing isn't it how Johnson gets all arsey at Neil for getting article/paragraph mixed and saying he needs to get the detail right and then being found out immediately after for not knowing the detail himself. The man is a ******* scumbag.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Swinson wins Lib Dem leadership race.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Please keep Give out of this country please... Clear sign Boris cares little enough about Ireland anyway.

 

[Which Tyler]

Swinson wins Lib Dem leadership race.

No surprise, but nice to see.

More cabinet resignations as well in protest of BoJo.

 

[General Melchett]

I can see BoJo's Government losing a No confidence vote in September but I don't know how we can have a general election before 31 October to prevent crashing out with No deal. Or can Labour try to form a Government before that? Presumably the PM is the only person with the authority to sign off on another extension to Article 50 assuming the EU agrees to it. There could also be a number of Tory MPs quitting the party which would see them lose their majority. The brown stuff is about to hit the fan.

 

[Gavin]

Leader of the 'free world':

"I could win that war in a week," Trump said on Monday, as he met with Pakistani PM Imran Khan at the White House. "Afghanistan would be wiped off the face of the earth... literally in 10 days."

"I don't want to go that route," the president added. "I don't want to kill 10 million people

https://www.rt.com/usa/464782-trump-war-afghanistan-win/

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Alan Duncan tried to get an emergency vote tomorrow to test whether new PM can command a majority. Bercow refused, but for an MP to try that against an incoming PM from their own party is beyond extraordinary.

Strange times.

 

[Which Tyler]

I've lost track, how many Tories would need to resign the whip for them to lose their majority even with the DUP?
Actually, CAN they command a majority at the moment? There have been a couplemof by-elections since I last checked.

ETA: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/
311 Con + 10 DUP
7 Sinn Féin and the speaker don't vote (except in tie-breaks for Bercow).
So they have 321 out of 441 occupied seats.
1 is currently vacant (Brecon and Radnorshire who fired their Tory MP in June)

 

[ncurd]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris called a GE tommorow.

 

[Which Tyler]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris called a GE tommorow.

If he doesn't, I would imagine someone else will Wednesday, though Corbyn would prefer to leave it until a week or two after they get back from holiday (good to see they're not wasting time during the current brexit extension!).
Lib Dem + SNP have the numbers (I think) to call a vote of no confidence. Hell, I wouldn't be too surprised if the Tory party had the numbers to do it.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

What would a GE look like if it was called tomorrow?

Tory and Labour losses, LibDem and Brexit party gains?


Tory and Brexit party minority government?

Or could labour sweet talk SNP/LibDem/literally everyone non-Leave into forming a coalition of mismatches? And drastically differing ideas on many topics?

 

[Gavin]

What would a GE look like if it was called tomorrow?

Tory and Labour losses, LibDem and Brexit party gains?


Tory and Brexit party minority government?

Or could labour sweet talk SNP/LibDem/literally everyone non-Leave into forming a coalition of mismatches? And drastically differing ideas on many topics?

Could you imagine a minority government of the Tory party and Brexit Party? Talk about right-wing extremism.

A Labour and LibDem collocation could, maybe work but the whole of British politics is frayed at the seams.

Compare that to the apparent unity from the EU 26 member states, it's mental.

Speaking to a Greek friend yesterday about Brexit and he said that even though the EU really had Greece by the throat over the past few years, they came in and really sorted out the whole civil service side of the country and that support for the EU is high

 

[Reiser99]

I've lost track, how many Tories would need to resign the whip for them to lose their majority even with the DUP?
Actually, CAN they command a majority at the moment? There have been a couplemof by-elections since I last checked.

ETA: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/
311 Con + 10 DUP
7 Sinn Féin and the speaker don't vote (except in tie-breaks for Bercow).
So they have 321 out of 441 occupied seats.
1 is currently vacant (Brecon and Radnorshire who fired their Tory MP in June)

I'm confused, where did you get 441 occupied seats or have I missed something? The total is 650 and if you take away the speaker and Sinn Féin that leaves 642 so to have a majority you need 322. Currently it's 321 vs 320 and the vacant seat determines if it's 321 vs 321 or 322 vs 320. However the number of rebels makes things far more complicated as well as some Labour MP's supporting the government, especially those in northern leave seats where the Brexit Party is likely to win.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

We have become a complete joke as a nation and I can't see that changing in the foreseeable future. I think those that think the world is going to look at us favourably after Brexit are of the same mindset as those who said the USA wasn't respected under Obama and now is under Trump... Completely detached from reality living in their echo chambers.

 

[Which Tyler]

I'm confused, where did you get 441 occupied seats or have I missed something?

Because I typo.d 641

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris called a GE tommorow.

I don't think so unless his hand is forced through losing a vote of no confidence. He knows that calling one before a Brexit is delivered would decimate the Tory party further. I am still sceptical that Tory remainers will vote to bring down their own government.

 

[McTallshort]

Could you imagine a minority government of the Tory party and Brexit Party? Talk about right-wing extremism.

A Labour and LibDem collocation could, maybe work but the whole of British politics is frayed at the seams.

Compare that to the apparent unity from the EU 26 member states, it's mental.

Speaking to a Greek friend yesterday about Brexit and he said that even though the EU really had Greece by the throat over the past few years, they came in and really sorted out the whole civil service side of the country and that support for the EU is high

Political unity in the EU? Are you serious?

 

[ncurd]

I don't think so unless his hand is forced through losing a vote of no confidence. He knows that calling one before a Brexit is delivered would decimate the Tory party further. I am still sceptical that Tory remainers will vote to bring down their own government.

I honestly think this might be their best chance to keep some semblance of government. When they don't deliver Brexit is October they are even more shafted than they are currently.

 

[General Melchett]

The thing with BoJo is that he has promised the world to everyone in his divided party. As time goes by he will gradually lose support as people realise he was telling porkies and won't be able to please everyone. His majority is on a knife edge and just a few defections will mean he has no power. That makes me wonder if he will call a GE immediately before all that happens and while the Corbyn anti semitism is still in the headlines. The key to unlocking this whole mess is to get rid of Corbyn and replace him with a fresh face who is more centre left, unambiguous and commits to an extension and a people's vote. They will then be in a solid position to form a coalition with the Lid Dems and if need be the SNP.

The Brexit party is a massive con and is just a way of sweeping up protest votes. They are primed to jump into bed with hard right Tories in a coalition.

 

[Which Tyler]

His majority is on a knife edge and just a few defections will mean he has no power.

See above, he (+DUP) has a majority of 1; as of August 1st the chances are that he'll have no majority at all (polling gives the LibDem a 15% lead).
Of course, this is assuming that the independent ex-conservatives vote against the government, which is likely but not guaranteed.

As of lunchtime today, Boris will have a "workable" majority of 1 (assuming no immediate resignations); which will most likely be down to 0 by the time they get back from holiday.


Q1: How many Tory MPs will resign the whip within 24 hours of Boris being announced? So before recess and the chance to kick-start a GE straight away - there's time post-recess, but barely, I also suspect that minds are made up on that in advance.

Q2: Are there any independents that Boris could negotiate with to support the government? most are ex-labour and ex-conservative, so I doubt it, but there may be 1-2 out there.

Q3: What happens if Boris can't commant a majority in parliament? Can he try his hand at minority governing (and can we imagine many worse candidates for doing so?) Or does he have to go to the queen and tell her that he can't build a government, and call a GE?

Q4: When Boris tries to deny reality and try a minority government - how long before someone else calls for a vote of no-confidence and force a GE?

Q5: How do potential Tory defections (whether to LibDem or independent, can't see CHUK getting any) change the maths? How about if they're big names.


Obviously, a GE doesn't solve anything, and will necessitate a grand-coalition of some description, probably involving 3 parties (Con + BnP + DUP could probably exist, albeit only in nightmares; but Lab + LibDem + SNP would slmost certainly require Corbyn's resignation)