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A statistical confirmation of kicking rugby's advantages

Chistera

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Very insightful article from intheloose, drawing upon university research.
Ranking last year's 6 Nations teams by average kicks per game results in the actual final rankings: Ireland, England, Wales, France, Scotland, Italy. Ireland having kicked the most (27.4 kicks/game), Italy the least (17.4).
Also data from this season's Premiership shows that the winning team kicked the ball 18.1 times per game on average, the losing team only 15.5 times. These findings would also apply to Super Rugby, so this isn't a northern hemisphere exclusive thing, as we could easily think.
Of course, kicking isn't a lone factor in deciding the outcomes of games, but these stats seem to clearly emphasize the advantages of keeping the opponent under pressure and playing in the opponent's half, to the detriment of playing ambitious and attacking rugby ball in hand.
Is this the definitive advent of a realistic kicking approach to rugby or will other rugby playing styles remain a plausible way to win?
 
Haven't read the article so posting blind, but it would be good to pair that with effectiveness of the kicks - how many led to scoring opportunities within 1/2/3/4/etc... Phases.

How many were attacking kicks, how many defensive and so on...
 
Very insightful article from intheloose, drawing upon university research.
Ranking last year's 6 Nations teams by average kicks per game results in the actual final rankings: Ireland, England, Wales, France, Scotland, Italy. Ireland having kicked the most (27.4 kicks/game), Italy the least (17.4).
Also data from this season's Premiership shows that the winning team kicked the ball 18.1 times per game on average, the losing team only 15.5 times. These findings would also apply to Super Rugby, so this isn't a northern hemisphere exclusive thing, as we could easily think.
Of course, kicking isn't a lone factor in deciding the outcomes of games, but these stats seem to clearly emphasize the advantages of keeping the opponent under pressure and playing in the opponent's half, to the detriment of playing ambitious and attacking rugby ball in hand.
Is this the definitive advent of a realistic kicking approach to rugby or will other rugby playing styles remain a plausible way to win?

I don't think its easy to make that call from so few games but just as a bit of fun, I did a similar analysis for last year's Rugby Championship.

RC2014kickstats.png

NOTE: Out of the 12 matches, one was a draw, and
there was one match (won by South Africa) where both
teams kicked the same number of times.


The winning team kicked 23 times
The losing team kicked 22 times

This is hardly definitive, but it gets a bit more interesting when you look at the actual matches. Out of 10 matches that had a result and where one team kicked more than the other...

The winning team kicked more in six matches
The losing team kicked more in four matches

In two of those matches where the highest kicking team won the kick stats, the differences wre marginal (31-30 and 32-29), so this result could easily have gone the other way but for just a few kicks over the two matches.

IMO, the "number of kicks" stat is meaningless without a lot more information about the nature of the kicks, such as

Kicks in play recovered/lost by the kicking team
Metres gained from clearing kicks, and whether they went to opponents hand/ground/touch
Bombs that resulted in penalties/tries/scrums or turnover of possesion.

Also, I think there are far more influential stats that impact on the result of a match...

Running metres gained
% possession and where that possession was
% territory
goalkicking accuracy
clean breaks and line breaks
offloads
missed tackles and other errors

....are a few examples
 
Haven't read the article so posting blind, but it would be good to pair that with effectiveness of the kicks - how many led to scoring opportunities within 1/2/3/4/etc... Phases.

How many were attacking kicks, how many defensive and so on...

Sure, the research seems to be only looking at very basic data, but it'd definitely be useful to include the kick's context, purpose and immediate/short-term consequences it has on the game. That's probably harder data to collect from live action and I don't know whether all those stats are actually registered and analysed.


@smartcooky
Looks like it may be less relevant in the Four Nations, and the Southern hemisphere, then. Even if you average the number of kicks by team, the order is messed up:
1. SAF: 28 kicks/game
2. NZL: 23.7
3. ARG: 20.16
4. AUS :19.7

However, the article states that, according to a 2010 Journal of Sports Science and Medicine paper, the two most decisive stats in Super Rugby were defensive kicks and made tackles.
Of course, goal kicking, line breaks and errors are very important too, but these are not down to tactical adjustments, they're about players' skill and the squad's chemistry and overall quality.
Kicking the ball more often is quite an easy tactical adjustment to make and apparently it could have a great influence on a match's result. It also has direct consequences on running meters, possession and territory, three factors that you mentioned.
 
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Sure, the research seems to be only looking at very basic data, but it'd definitely be useful to include the kick's context, purpose and immediate/short-term consequences it has on the game. That's probably harder data to collect from live action and I don't know whether all those stats are actually registered and analysed.


@smartcooky
Looks like it may be less relevant in the Four Nations, and the Southern hemisphere, then. Even if you average the number of kicks by team, the order is messed up:
1. SAF: 28 kicks/game
2. NZL: 23.7
3. ARG: 20.16
4. AUS :19.7

However, the article states that, according to a 2010 Journal of Sports Science and Medicine paper, the two most decisive stats in Super Rugby were defensive kicks and made tackles.
Of course, goal kicking, line breaks and errors are very important too, but these are not down to tactical adjustments, they're about players' skill and the squad's chemistry and overall quality.
Kicking the ball more often is quite an easy tactical adjustment to make and apparently it could have a great influence on a match's result. It also has direct consequences on running meters, possession and territory, three factors that you mentioned.

No offense, but you can't use the 2010 stats for the current season.

Especially when the focus is on the SH teams.

from 2007 - 2011, the SH teams used the kicking, and especially the kick-chase gameplay. That also lead to the Bulls first Super Rugby ***le in 2007, and the Boks implemented that too. It even resulted in a tri-nations victory and a series win over the British and Irish Lions. from 2012 to now, the Kick-chase has been used far less, especially due to the changes in laws, and the manner in which the referees blow when 2 players go for the ball in the air. Some teams still use this tactic, but it's been far less effective than it was in the past.

Tactical kicking is still however used frequently, and I honestly love this area of the game. putting pressure back on the opposition, by pinning them back in their own 22, going for the lineout and driving mauls.

For this statistic to be a true reflection, it has to be revised at a tournament-for-tournament period.
 
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Apparently in 2013 France kicked most and finished last. Can't be bothered to double check that though, read it on one of Kinsella's pieces.
 
No offense, but you can't use the 2010 stats for the current season.

Especially when the focus is on the SH teams.

from 2007 - 2011, the SH teams used the kicking, and especially the kick-chase gameplay. That also lead to the Bulls first Super Rugby ***le in 2007, and the Boks implemented that too. It even resulted in a tri-nations victory and a series win over the British and Irish Lions. from 2012 to now, the Kick-chase has been used far less, especially due to the changes in laws, and the manner in which the referees blow when 2 players go for the ball in the air. Some teams still use this tactic, but it's been far less effective than it was in the past.

Tactical kicking is still however used frequently, and I honestly love this area of the game. putting pressure back on the opposition, by pinning them back in their own 22, going for the lineout and driving mauls.

Not so much changes in the Laws as changes in interpretation, and this is especially so for 2010 because that was the first season where SANZAR implemented the tackle protocol that required a clear release by the Tackler and the Tackle Assist (to allow the Tackled Player to place, pass or push the ball) before they were allowed to jackle for the ball. This protocol was followed on in the 2010/2011 season in the NH, but importantly the 2010 Six Nations was before the SANZAR initiative so it wasl played under the old protocol
 
No offense, but you can't use the 2010 stats for the current season.

Especially when the focus is on the SH teams.

from 2007 - 2011, the SH teams used the kicking, and especially the kick-chase gameplay. That also lead to the Bulls first Super Rugby ***le in 2007, and the Boks implemented that too. It even resulted in a tri-nations victory and a series win over the British and Irish Lions. from 2012 to now, the Kick-chase has been used far less, especially due to the changes in laws, and the manner in which the referees blow when 2 players go for the ball in the air. Some teams still use this tactic, but it's been far less effective than it was in the past.

Tactical kicking is still however used frequently, and I honestly love this area of the game. putting pressure back on the opposition, by pinning them back in their own 22, going for the lineout and driving mauls.

For this statistic to be a true reflection, it has to be revised at a tournament-for-tournament period.

You're right, 2010 stats definitely are outdated, I've only cited the article though, not of my writing. I don't know that much about Super Rugby and certainly not a lot about its tactical evolutions but you must be rights about that too. If some rules adjustments managed to switch back the game to a more ball-in-hand approach then I'd definitely like to see these implemented in Europe too (don't know if they have been). But kick-chase seems out of favour in the NH too, even England doesn't use it much anymore.
Tactical kicking can sure be exciting, when both teams' back three repeatedly kick the ball to one another to gain territorial advantage, in a real mano a mano involving both skills and awareness.

@Peat
That seems right, I've looked it up though (http://irbplayerwelfare.com/pdfs/gameanalysis/6_Nations_Analysis_2013.pdf) and all teams kicked approximately the same number of times in the 2013 6 Nations, no real statistical conclusions to draw then: France 27 kicks/game, Scotland 27, England 26, Ireland 26, Wales 26, Italy 25.
 
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I bet you get the same result if you score teams by the number of runs they make, and the meters they make ball in hand.

I think the main point is the team that manages to end their possessions with fewer unforced errors/turnovers will end up having the advantage in the stats in all areas.
 
Just to parrot a few others here I don't think we can conclude that kicking is a gameplan which leads to success. I think we can conclude that those who succeed (in particular Ireland last year) run a successful kick chase game, and win the ball back to a higher margin on garryowens. Just to look at Ireland, in Murray we have a guy who weighs box kicks beautifully and more often than not allows his wingers at least a 50 percent chance of winning the ball back on a kick chase, which is helped by guys who all excel in the air like the Kearney's, Trimble and Zebo. Sexton's finding his corners increasingly more these days too. That stat is only as good as the quality of kicker behind it.
Interesting stat to be sure, and while I think there's an argument to be made that all of the best teams all have a top notch tactical kicking game, I think that's just natural. They tend to be dominant in all areas of the game, and like Peat said, France racked up (narrowly, as Chistera says) the highest number of kicks in 2013, and had little success because they were aimless and porrly chased.
 
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