AB selections, Biggest movers in super rugby for good or bad?

[Larksea]

I got to admit Ive hardly watched any super rugby this year... maybe 3-4 games some part games and a bit of highlights....

who are the big movers this year? massive year with so many players moved on post WC, the biggest rebuild ever on the cards despite having the same coaching staff which should help... Though at this stage it seems Dave Rennie is by far the obvious choice to take over from Hansen.

NZ conference is again looking by far the strongest and most evenly matched.

There are the obvious guys who you can pretty much lock in on current form.

McKenzie
Ngatai
Dixon
Ardie Savea

who else? WTF is happening with the front rowers?

Any AB regulars/hopefuls not doing enough?

 

[0tago]

Saders have a great front row. Moody, Taylor and Franks have been destroying everything in their wake. From memory they faded a little in the front row vs the Sharks when Aalatoa and Crockett came on and the Sharks took off Oosethezieun. But Moody and Franks will be the starters with Colesy at 2 and Taylor on RES.

Tu'ungafasi, Crockett and B.Edmonds for me are the boys competing for that bench spot, Tu'ungafasi being superior in the offensive/ball carrying department (has youth on his side to). Reggie Goodes seems to have faded, but still a long way too go this season, it's very much open for grabs.

My biggest concern is centre. I think the main 3 will be Fekitoa, Ngatai and Crotty, with Moala and Laumape being an option, Moala sadly hasn't impressed me this season, tackling at under 70% and offensively average (I think Hansen was right to give him a run at wing vs Samoa last year, might be better suited here). Buckman out with injury is probably not a realistic option, which is a shame because he could have built off last years excellent season.

Jimmy Tupou is looking good for the 4th lock slot, just behind Tuipulotu, Mark Abbot form the Canes in with a shout to.

Loose forwards we have unreal depth, but not tested enough at test level, so time to find out the boys from the men, expecting Todd, Dixon, Savea, Ioane, Gibson to be the front runners with maybe Taufua, Sanders and Squire to potentially get a look in, (I'd love to see Christie get a look as well, he plays like a man processed).

At 10, we got great competition again, Sopoaga, Cruden, Barrett (Maybe Damo depending what Hansen wants of him) being the main 3, with the distant option of West (who is still bloody class), don't think Mo'Unga is in with a shout though and we'll see what M.Mckenzie can bring, no high hopes there though.

I think James Lowe is more than guaranteed a sniff, considering some of the injury issues with Savea, NMS and Naholo and the fact he's damn good.

 

[Larksea]

I still think Moala should be in the mix. he was superb in super rugby last year, was ITM cup player of the year, was one of the few players that impressed in the Samoa test. Blues haven't quite clicked yet, ranger has misfired on arrival and the crazy prospect of a Moala/ranger combination hasn't materialized yet but Moala is quality... He'll be back.

 

[0tago]

I still think Moala should be in the mix. he was superb in super rugby last year, was ITM cup player of the year, was one of the few players that impressed in the Samoa test. Blues haven't quite clicked yet, ranger has misfired on arrival and the crazy prospect of a Moala/ranger combination hasn't materialized yet but Moala is quality... He'll be back.

I'm sure he will be in the mix. 12 & 13 are definitely up for grabs, but Fekitoa, Ngatai and Crotty are the most probable and less volatile options in my opinion. I'm still not sold on Crotty though, offensively he lacks a lot, but you can't fault his defense, so when coupled with Fekitoa, he could prove his worth.

 

[Larksea]

yeah poor crotty he hasn't put a foot wrong when hes had his chances to play for the All Blacks he seems to just fit in well and do the job. He seems like a good option to pair with a player like Moala or Fekitoa. But as far as super rugby form goes he hasn't been knocking any doors down.

Foster and Fox were in the stands watching the chiefs last weekend and Ngatai scored 4 trys... that's knocking the door down.

And Ngatai is also one of those players with skills, a kicking game & leadership qualities.

I haven't seen Edmonds play this year but from last season if he can continue on in the same way he's sure to be in the mix. Its also good news if Moody and Franks are on point. The selectors obviously rate Tu'ungafasi and have been grooming him somewhat. Hes very useful around the field but I don't think hes really proved himself to be a genuine top level scrumager yet. Though Ive not seem much of him this season.

wings is interesting again, NMS injured, Naholo injured? Savea in suspect form.

this may not be a popular view, Savea has been massive over the last few years and has established an amazing record. But I don't see him being a good option looking to 2019, history suggests that big island wingers can have a habit of peaking big young and early then fading fast. Already last season we saw glimpses of Savea in patchy form, yes he ended up having a couple of barnstorming games and destroyed France but for the most part he was very average... I actually study nutrition and I wish I could get hold of the guys advising him on food/nutrition and sort out his diet. Ridiculous high protein diets are all the rage and I bet its just not working for him... But generally when I ask the tough question "is a 28-29 year old Julian Savea going to be a force for the AB's in ~2019 given the issues hes had the last couple of years?" Answer: most likely NO

But as far as wing goes we don't need to panic now, our 2019 could very well be someone we've never heard of yet. In the same way no-one had heard of Skudder in ~2012

 

[nzlizard]

Ngatai is looking the most solid of the 12's currently out there, Crotty is a good fall back guy but he's not the X factor at 12 we have been used to.

Ardie Savea is looking beast mode in the couple of Hurricanes games I have watched.

Mckenzie is another who has risen in the stocks also.

Haven't really watched a lot of the other nz teams to see who is going to bolt into selection.

 

[0tago]

Have to agree on Savea. James Lowe is bursting onto the scene, so I'm not panicking over Savea though, but he has huge power down that wing and when he's fit and in form he's the best in the world no doubts, so it'd be nice to squeeze a few more years out of him if his diet and motivation can be sorted out, I do see an early exit to France/Europe for him though.

I'm pretty sold on the Fekitoa Ngatai combination. Fekitoa has been a little quiet in the last few games, but his attacking game has stepped up, he's looking like a good Nonu replacement, he's made some crucial tackles for the Highlanders this season, but his tackling success % is still lowish for a centre, a lot of that is attributed to his rushing defense, which he can frequently miss that man. Charlies could be better as well but on the other hand Crotty's is perfect. Pretty sure Hansen will be looking for a good defender in the MF, so I can definitely see Crotty getting selected.

What a stupid year for the 7's boys to take off. This is a year we really needed a guy like SBW to step up and become a leader in the MF, considering we are lacking depth in this department. Ardie and Ioane taking off in probably the most crucial year of their potential AB career development, can they be brought in for the Lions now? I don't know.. But not the smartest choices in my opinion.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

What do Kiwis here think of Johny McNicholl of the Crusaders? I've been impressed the few times I've seen him. Potential call up for the Wales game if Naholo doesn't make it? And shortage of options at 14, barring shifting Ben Smith to right wing and playing Mckensie or Barrett at full back.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

What do Kiwis here think of Johny McNicholl of the Crusaders? I've been impressed the few times I've seen him. Potential call up for the Wales game if Naholo doesn't make it? And shortage of options at 14, barring shifting Ben Smith to right wing and playing Mckensie or Barrett at full back.

McNicholl has been touted for higher honours for a wee while without ever really living up to his potential. I saw rumours recently that he may have signed a contract overseas?

I think he's a good player, but I wouldn't have him ahead of Savea, Naholo, Milner-Skudder, Lowe (plus the utilities like Smith, McKenzie, Barrett). That being said he's played well in his first couple of games this season, so things could change.

My team which I picked at the start of the season hasn't changed much really:

Hookers (3) - Dane Coles, Codie Taylor, Nathan Harris
Props (5) - Owen Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Joe Moody, Wyatt Crockett, Ofa Tu'ungafasi
Locks (4) - Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Patrick Tuipulotu, Dominic Bird
Loose Forwards (5) - Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, Sam Cane, Akira Ioane, Matt Todd
Halfback (3) - Aaron Smith, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, TJ Perenara
First Fives (3) - Aaron Cruden, Beauden Barrett, Lima Sopoaga
Centres (3) - Malakai Fekitoa, Charlie Ngatai, Rene Ranger, George Moala
Outside Backs (5) - Ben Smith, Julian Savea, Waisake Naholo, Nehe Milner-Skudder, James Lowe

The players in italics I'm unsure about. Harris hasn't featured much this season, but I don't see many other major options at hooker. Elliot has been good for the Chiefs, but seems to have burnt his bridges with the coaching staff of the All Blacks. The propping situation isn't really any clearer, no one has emerged as an obvious candidate. That being said, I'm sure the selectors have someone in mind - prop selections always seems to be a bit out of left field. The lock situation is similar to hooker - no one has really asserted themselves. I think Barrett has impressed the most so far, though Thomson has done well too (mainly at 8). Seu for the Chiefs could be a wild card, maybe a project player. He covers both loose forward and lock and has played very well so far this season. I still think Bird could have a big impact at the Chiefs, he should be back in the next week or so. It sounds to me like Savea and Ioane will be saved for the EOYT, which means there's a spot open in the loose forwards, probably for Dixon. Luatua hasn't done enough to warrant a spot for me, and Squire finds himself at the back of a logjam but would be a great specialist back up to Read.

I think the halfback spots are up in the air. Smith is a given, but behind him any two of Kerr-Barlow, Perenara and Weber could be selected. I think TKB is probably safe, so it's more a battle between TJP and Weber. My personal preference would be the latter, but I feel like TJP will be selected. McKenzie has emerged as a real threat to Barrett's place in the squad. I can't see all four of Cruden, Sopoaga, Barrett and McKenzie being selected, and Cruden and Sopoaga have been the most impressive at 10 so far, so it could be a straight choice between Barrett and McKenzie. Ngatai is the obvious candidate for 12, I think at this point in time Crotty and one other player will be selected for the midfield - probably either Ranger or Moala. Both can cover wing, which is why we can afford four midfielders in the squad. The outside backs make up won't change, except for the fact that Milner-Skudder is injured. That potentially opens up a place for the return or Dagg or Jane, or Ranger/Moala. Perhaps Osborne is in with a shot?

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Yep, prop situation depth is not looking great for ABs, especially at tight head if Owen Franks or Faumuina get injured before June. I only just read that Nepo Laulala is out for the year after rupturing 3 ligaments in his knee and underwent knee reconstruction in January. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11576088

How about Toomaga-Allen for the Canes? Or am I really plumbing the depths? Moli for the Chiefs is still very young and raw.

Looks like replacing Woodcock and Ben Franks won't be an easy task.

 

[nickdnz]

Yep, prop situation depth is not looking great for ABs, especially at tight head if Owen Franks or Faumuina get injured before June. I only just read that Nepo Laulala is out for the year after rupturing 3 ligaments in his knee and underwent knee reconstruction in January. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11576088

How about Toomaga-Allen for the Canes? Or am I really plumbing the depths? Moli for the Chiefs is still very young and raw.

Looks like replacing Woodcock and Ben Franks won't be an easy task.

I rate JTA highly but he seems to have taken a step back this season. I think it's a bit of a wait and see if a TH appears. Edmonds has looked alright for the Highlanders. Moli would be a very raw pick. Really, Laulala was the ABs best shout at TH (prefer him to Faumuina by a mile), so I'm gutted he's out.

 

[Larksea]

Brendon Edmonds out with a season ending knee injury... Crazy me was kinda picking Edmonds & Laulala to be in the All Black mix this year. A lot of question marks behind Moody & Franks...

 

[0tago]

Yep, prop situation depth is not looking great for ABs, especially at tight head if Owen Franks or Faumuina get injured before June. I only just read that Nepo Laulala is out for the year after rupturing 3 ligaments in his knee and underwent knee reconstruction in January. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11576088

How about Toomaga-Allen for the Canes? Or am I really plumbing the depths? Moli for the Chiefs is still very young and raw.

Looks like replacing Woodcock and Ben Franks won't be an easy task.

Add Brendan Edmonds to that list as well Graham could get a call up and Tu'Ungofasi has been groomed for years, his scrumaging isn't the best but he offers an attacking and defensive options.

 

[Larksea]

have to admit I'm not a fan of JTA for the All Blacks. Big guy and impressive around the park for the canes but Ive never liked him as a test prop option.

One guy Ive really liked for a while who I think is starting to look like he should come into selection conversation is Nanai, I thought he impressed at times last year and he looks to have built on that this year. However I think he may be in the 7's mix? 22 years old, really good prospect.

Actually same goes for Rieko Ioane, I know hes still only like 19 years old but I've always thought wingers are players that peak very early. We shouldn't shy away from picking 20 year old wingers. Often by the time they are 24 they are past their prime. I say get them in there and get the experience around them.They were both darn impressive against the chiefs.

 

[GoTheNaki]

Alright, so...

Ngatai, is a lock. There is absolutely no way anyone else is picked, it's over. Especially after the last couple of games. The vision, kicking ability, defense etc. it's all there. The next guy behind him at 12, would most certainly be a step down a tier. Then it would be Crotty, Moala, and a very distant Laumape. None of these guys have what Ngatai has.

Centre, well... It really is Fekitoa's to lose, and there would have to be something amazing come out of the woodwork here. You've got Ranger, Tamanivalu, Wainui, Aso and Lienert-Brown... I mean, we're a bit light on competitive centres here. But, the world cup is enough time away for them to figure it out. We definitely have some young centres that could very well become world beaters, they are just all young. With Seta being the oldest at 24 in July. But you have Wainui/Aso/Lienert-Brown, maybe TJ Faiane might appear in the next couple of years, who knows.

McKenzie - Whilst there is absolutely no doubt that this kid is talented, and he will more than likely be an All Black one day. He probably won't make the Rugby Championship team. I'm more likely to expect him on the end of year tour. And with the NMS/Naholo injuries, I would be inclined to see him at fullback, with Ben Smith on the wing. I don't think Dagg is coming back. Dagg hasn't had a down year, he's had a 3 year span of just not being THAT player anymore.

10 - Hansen picks Cruden. The next one is tricky, do you pick Barrett for his versatility, or Sopoaga who is better at that position, and has shown it at test level, and in huge games. Barrett has often, for lack of the term "s*** the bed". I guess Barrett is the one here that needs to be a little worried about McKenzie out of the 3 of them.

Halfbacks - I feel they pick themselves to be honest. Smith, 1. TJP, 2. And well, then it's whether you'd like experience over who's actually starting for the Chiefs.

Locks - Retallick, Whitelock, Tuipulotu. Pretty no-brainer here. Hansen probably either fills the spot with an experienced AB lock, or someone who can float positions, Luatua. Not likely though.

6, 7, 8 - Vito goes at the end of the season, I would assume he'll be replaced by Ioane. Kaino, Cane, Read, Ioane, Todd, Savea, hard to look past the first 3 in that list.

Wing - When I say "it might be a bit rough", I mean if we get another winger out with a season-ending injury. Savea, Jane will probably be back, Osborne, Lowe, Tevita Li, Reiko Ioane. They might use Moala in the wing too. But I'd say it would be Savea/Jane/B. Smith. Even though I think Jane's time is done, like Dagg's. Right wing is a bit of an odd one for the AB's without Naholo and NMS. I'm just waiting for Reiko Ioane though, he's already doing things that not a lot of super rugby wingers do, and he's 19. Could also be Savea/B. Smith/McKenzie if needs be, as I said above.

Forwards - Coles starts, I would imagine Franks does too. I don't think Crockett starts, but will be there. Codie Taylor will be behind Coles. Tu'ungafasi is going to be an All Black imo, it's just a case of when. Faumuina will definitely be in the mix if he keeps starting at the Blues.

That's about it, I reckon.

 

[bazwaz]

...Johnny McNichol has been awesome for the Crusaders...he's everywhere around the paddock and a great finisher..

Certainly wouldn't look out of place in the ABs given his current form....and especially given injuries to Naholo and Milner Skudder.

...James Lowe is another great outside back in great form for the Mighty Chiefs...but alas only a finite amount of spaces with Savea guaranteed one wing...who will be on the other only Hansen knows.