All Black Watch - Week 3

[TRF Mr Fish]

It was a poor week for the Crusaders and the Hurricanes, whilst the Blues and the Chiefs both had comfortable wins. Accordingly, players' chances of making the June squad have been affected by their teams' performances.

Hookers

Ben Funnell (Crusaders) – Unlikely
Funnell wasn't on for a long time, but did make a number of tackles in his cameo. Prolonged performances for the Crusaders will see his chances increase. Corey Flynn's less than impressive performance will pave the way for this.

Dane Coles (Hurricanes) – Likely
Coles was a defensive linchpin for the Hurricanes, but like the rest of the team failed to make many yards on attack. His lineout throwing was below par too, but still remains as the top prospect as the third hooker due to being on the EOYT last year.

Hika Elliot (Chiefs) – Even
Elliot was disappointing in his first game back, particularly at lineout time. He is just coming back from what was supposed to be a medium term injury that only kept him sidelined for a week, so he does have that as a bit of an excuse, but he'll have to up his performances in the next couple of weeks or he may find his Chiefs bench spot taken from him by young Rhys Marshall.

Other hookers to feature over the weekend were James Parsons (Blues), who did not have as strong a performance as in round 2, Motu Matu'u (Hurricanes), who was really only sighted once, and Rhys Marshall (Chiefs), who made a good impact coming off the bench and with a few more games under his belt may find himself under the watchful eyes of the selectors, though he will miss the Chief's upcoming tour of SA.

Props

Wyatt Crockett (Crusaders) – Likely
Crockett defended well for the Crusaders and was strong in the scrums, enough to win him a place in this week's probable squad.

Ben Franks (Hurricanes) – Even
Franks wasn't as strong for the Hurricanes as they needed him to be, and was part of a creaking front row. With Woodcock holding one spot, and Crockett the better looking loose head at this stage of the season, Franks would probably not make the squad.

Ben Afeaki (Chiefs) – Even
Afeaki was superb for the Chiefs, anchoring a stable scrum and getting around the park well. He is probably the form tight head of the competition at the moment, at least for the NZ teams.

Reggie Goodes and Jeffery Toomaga-Allen (both Hurricanes) suffer from the same issue as Franks, though noticeably the Hurricane's scrimmaging did improve when Goodes entered the Fray. Tom McCartney (Blues) was also good value, but probably is not part of the selectors' plans. Ben Tameifuna (Chiefs) had a nice game off the bench, though not for a prolonged period of time.

Locks

The two major locking events to take place during the week were Dominic Bird (Crusaders) getting some good time on the field (and performing well), and Anthony Boric (Blues) having his first proper hit out for his side's development squad. If Romano is out for a long period of time, it is likely one of these two will get the call up, with Boric being the favourite due to his experience.

Loose Forwards

Steven Luatua (Blues) – Likely
Luatua had another very strong game this past weekend, offering a very physical blind side option for the All Blacks. If he can continue to perform to this level for the rest of the season, he will be a shoe in for the June squad. His tackle rate of 14 made and zero missed was a game high.

Luke Braid (Blues) – Even
Braid had the better of Matt Todd in their face off on Friday night. He was a force with the ball in hand, getting over for a try, and defended exceptionally well, matching Luatua's tackle stats. The selectors' decision would seem very odd were they to select another uncapped open side ahead of Braid come June, providing Braid maintains his current form.

Matt Todd (Crusaders) – Unlikely
Todd was played off the field by Braid, though some would say Chris Pollock played a hand in that. That being said, his performance wasn't woeful in any regards, he was just simply not as good as his Blues counterpart.

Brad Shields (Hurricanes) – Even
Shields had a subpar game for the Hurricanes, not getting the go forward his team really needed, when it mattered most. It still looks like he is playing out of position, at number eight. His defence was also below average in the weekend, and did not show the physicality required of a blind side flanker.

Outside the top candidates, Peter Saili (Blues) was solid on both attack and defence, while Karl Lowe (Hurricanes) was a defensive wall against the Reds, making 20 tackles, a weekend high.

Halfbacks

TJ Perenara (Hurricanes) – Even
Perenara was disappointing for the early part of the Reds match, making a few dodgy kicks and not sparking his troops well. His individual play improved as the game progressed, but he is still a few weeks from coming right, by the looks of it.

Tawera Kerr-Barlow (Chiefs) – Likely
TKB was fantastic for the Chiefs when he came on, and along with a few of the other pine riders he sparked real life into the Chiefs. His demotion to the bench was hopefully a shot in the arm, and should only improve as the weeks progress. It will be good to see how he goes against some of the African forward packs he's about to face.

Of the other NZ halfbacks playing in the weekend, Augustine Pulu (Chiefs) was very disappointing in his maiden start, and looks to be a better impact player than a starter.

First Fives

Chris Noakes (Blues) complements the rest of his team very well, adding a bit of wizardry to the raw skill and power of his backline.

Centres

Francis Saili (Blues) – Even
Saili will be of huge interest to the All Blacks selectors. He's young, quick, powerful, and a good distributor of the ball. He was caught out a few times against the Crusaders, but with regular game time for the Blues he will get better and better.

Robbie Fruean (Crusaders) – Very Unlikely
Fruean was almost unsighted for the Crusaders, before being subbed around half time. Though he's a great athlete, his heavily publicised flaws will prevent him from progressing further in the NZ system. Look to him being selected in the Samoan squad by 2015.

Tim Bateman (Hurricanes) – Unlikely
Like the rest of the Hurricanes, Bateman was fairly average in the weekend. He won't have done his selection chances any favours, but once his forwards up their game and Beauden Barrett attacks the line more he'll have a greater chance to show off his skills.

Other centres to impress in the weekend were Charlie Ngatai (Chiefs) off the bench, and the enigmatic Rene Ranger (Blues). Ranger looks to have improved on some of his flaws from previous seasons and were he not heading overseas (allegedly) come the end of the year, he would have a good shot at making the squad. I should mention that I forgot to include Richard Kahui (Chiefs) in my initial analysis, which I should've done as he is not heading to Japan until the end of the Super Rugby season. He will be available for the June series and will almost certainly be selected, providing he is not injured.

Outside Backs
Charles Piutau (Blues) – Likely
Piutau continues to impress at the Blues. His desire to counter attack all the time is fresh, if not a tad dangerous. Thankfully, he normally always breaks the first tackle. What is just as positive is that he has a powerful punt on him, when he chooses to use it. With a spot definitely vacated by Cory Jane, Piutau looks like the first cab off the ranks.

Andre Taylor (Hurricanes) – Unlikely
With Piutau's progression at the Blues, and Dagg and Ben Smith being certainties for the June tests, it is hard to see Taylor making it into the squad unless he returns to last year's form and Piutau's form drops off substantially. Against the Reds Taylor saw little action, suffering from the rest of his team's average performance. Hopefully we see him rise again to the level of play that had many people predicting he could be a bolter for last year's squad.

Tim Nanai-Williams (Chiefs) – Even
TNW will need to slip back onto the wing if he is to boost his chances of making the squad. Although he is adequate at centre, he is only a stop gap measure while Andrew Horrell and Kahui remain injured at the Chiefs. His performance against the Cheetahs was below par, especially when compared with last week's performance.

There were other wings who impressed in the weekend, mainly Frank Halai (Blues), who scored another double, and his team mate George Moala. It was a pity Johnny McNicholl (Crusaders) was injured for his team's match, but he has plenty of time to contest for a place.

Probable June Squad:

Hookers – A Hore, K Mealamu, D Coles
Props – T Woodcock, O Franks, C Faumuina, W Crockett, B Afeaki
Locks – S Whitelock, B Retalick, L Romano, A Williams
Loose Forwards – K Read, S Cane, V Vito, L Messam, S Luatua
Halfbacks – P Weepu, A Smith, T Kerr-Barlow
First Fives – D Carter, A Cruden, B Barrett
Centres – C Smith, M Nonu, F Saili
Outside Backs – I Dagg, J Savea, C Piutau, H Gear
Utility Backs – B Smith, R Kahui

In: W Crockett, S Luatua, R Kahui
Out: B Franks, B Shields, T Nanai-Williams

Blues - 7
Chiefs - 7
Hurricanes - 5
Crusaders - 7
Highlanders - 6

 

[admartian]

I'd rather Anscombe over Barrett at this point.

 

[nickdnz]

I'd rather Anscombe over Barrett at this point.

I wouldn't. You're writing him off so terribly soon. Like two average games...How fickle can you get?

 

[donmcdazzle]

Also Anscombe hasn't even played at 10 yet either.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Yes I like Anscombe, but will need to get some game time at ten if he really wants to make the squad. Fullback and first five are completely different ball games.

 

[admartian]

I wouldn't. You're writing him off so terribly soon. Like two average games...How fickle can you get?

I'm pretty fickle - don't take it personally. I know it's rather irrational, but I wear my fan-heart on my sleeve. Pretty much how I am for all my sports teams.

 

[Larksea]

I'm liking Anscombe too and I think he would do the All Blacks Justice if/when he gets a chance.

Barrett is surely still ahead in the pecking order though, two average games doesn't undo two years of fantastic performances and improvement including showing he is more than capable of playing test footy.

Hard not to look at Rhys Marshall without interest, he's just what NZ needs. A young talented old school looking hooker, 20 years old and so far just taking super rugby in his stride.

 

[admartian]

I'm liking Anscombe too and I think he would do the All Blacks Justice if/when he gets a chance.

Barrett is surely still ahead in the pecking order though, two average games doesn't undo two years of fantastic performances and improvement including showing he is more than capable of playing test footy.

Hard not to look at Rhys Marshall without interest, he's just what NZ needs. A young talented old school looking hooker, 20 years old and so far just taking super rugby in his stride.

Plus we need an injection (or two) of viable youth options for Hooker in the ABs. Like two years ago even.

 

[Darwin]

Excellent write-up again Invictus - I find it hard to disagree with any of that!

While it has been good to see Anscombe play well in these last two matches I think he has a long way to go to prove he is of All Black calibre. His goal-kicking is outstanding (as it always has been), and he has certainly slotted into the Chiefs 15 jersey well. However there are still be big question marks about his defense (especially when he is in the 10 jersey), his ability to control the game, and his tactical kicking (though his tactical kicking has been surprisingly good these first two matches). He has certainly made a positive start to the season - hopefully he can keep it up, especially when the pressure goes on....

I'm certainly not as big a fan of Barrett as many seem to be, but I don't think he can be written off after two average games (behind a struggling pack). I have no doubt he will come right sooner rather than later, as he looks to have the talent and composure to be a very good test player in the near future..

 

[bobbilycious]

I imagine that the AB selectors (if they have a training squad like last year, a few weeks before the tests) will call Rhys Marshall into the training squad to have a look at him, just like they did with Brad Shields etc. If he does well enough, and with a few injuries, we could see him playing international rugby before he has played ITM Cup.

 

[Ruckyou]

Halai has burst onto the scene wearing 14. the number that happens to be up for grabs with the vacancy left by Jane, also i rate Braids chances of filling McCaw's position.

 

[nickdnz]

Halai has burst onto the scene wearing 14. the number that happens to be up for grabs with the vacancy left by Jane, also i rate Braids chances of filling McCaw's position.

Can't see Halai making the AB's, certainly not this season. He still makes quite a few positional mistakes, especially on defense. Also, having Savea on one wing and Halai on the other isn't exactly balanced, and Hosea Gear is certainly safer than Halai while being a similar type of player.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

I imagine that the AB selectors (if they have a training squad like last year, a few weeks before the tests) will call Rhys Marshall into the training squad to have a look at him, just like they did with Brad Shields etc. If he does well enough, and with a few injuries, we could see him playing international rugby before he has played ITM Cup.

I was going to say Marshall will need to bulk up, so it may be a couple more years before he has a shot, but then I realised he's no lighter than Coles or Mealamu! He will have to get some more game time at Super level though, so I don't see him having a serious chance until the end of next year.

Can't see Halai making the AB's, certainly not this season. He still makes quite a few positional mistakes, especially on defense. Also, having Savea on one wing and Halai on the other isn't exactly balanced, and Hosea Gear is certainly safer than Halai while being a similar type of player.

Yep, I don't think we'll see Halai in a black jersey any time soon, not with both Savea and Gear still around.

 

[Aedaphon]

Halai has burst onto the scene wearing 14. the number that happens to be up for grabs with the vacancy left by Jane, also i rate Braids chances of filling McCaw's position.

Surely Sam Cane is the absolute first choice at 7 with McCaw on sabbtical? He's been waiting for his turn to make a claim on the shirt for a while and I don't feel Braid has done enough to change that

 

[nickdnz]

Surely Sam Cane is the absolute first choice at 7 with McCaw on sabbtical? He's been waiting for his turn to make a claim on the shirt for a while and I don't feel Braid has done enough to change that

To be fair to Braid, he's probably been waiting longer than Cane. He's also consistently had better form at SR than Cane - easily being the Blues best player last season. Cane rarely started ahead of Latimer for the Chiefs last season. Cane got in I suppose because of his youth and promise when the AB's were taking several recently finished NZ U20's JRWC winners, and he took his chances and is looking good, but you'd still say on merit Braid is very unlucky. Todd has been in the frame longer than the both of them. With that said I think Cane will still be first choice 7.

 

[admartian]

Braid should really make the squad if he keeps this up.

I agree about Halai and actually thought this myself after the string of good games. he's had so far. He's very good, but the ABs don't tend to blood new guys in their first season. Unless their agent is Khoder Nasser....

 

[Darwin]

Halai has burst onto the scene wearing 14. the number that happens to be up for grabs with the vacancy left by Jane, also i rate Braids chances of filling McCaw's position.

Personally I don't think Halai will even be on the AB's selectors radars at this stage. As has been mentioned he has only played a couple of games, and despite scoring a pile of tries hasn't really be tested - his defense looked very shaky versus the Canes too. He will need to prove he can do the basics right before they will even consider him - I think the Bulls will certainly test him in that regard, so it will be interesting to see how he goes. Personally I haven't actually been that impressed with him - he has received a lot of praise as he has scored 4 tries, but I actually think Moala has been the pick of the Blues wings (equally dangerous, but more reliable on defense and with a better work-rate). Don't get me wrong, he has certainly made a very promising start to his Super Rugby career, I just think it is far too early to tell whether he is a top class wing or not...

Surely Sam Cane is the absolute first choice at 7 with McCaw on sabbtical? He's been waiting for his turn to make a claim on the shirt for a while and I don't feel Braid has done enough to change that

Nick has summed this up well already. Cane will almost certainly start in every test for the AB's while McCaw is out, as he has been anointed his understudy, but based on last seasons Super Rugby performances Braid and Matt Todd would be well ahead of him. Cane has impressed at the start of this season though, and fits the 'type' of 7 the AB's selectors are after. There may be room for another 7 in the squad (backing up Cane), with the likes of Todd, Hardie, Braid, and Latimer the leading contenders..

 

[admartian]

^ I think there is a good possibility we might lose Braid or Todd overseas. Whomever isn't picked AT ALL this year. Both have been knocking for a 2 seasons now. I dunno just a feeling.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

I'd be surprised if we lost either of them. They're still both quite young, and their potential earnings would skyrocket if they were to get a cap or two (plus it's a lot easier to find a club). Both are first choice at for their franchises, definitely for this season at least (I think in Todd's case, McCaw will shift to blindside fairly soon).

 

[admartian]

I'd be surprised if we lost either of them. They're still both quite young, and their potential earnings would skyrocket if they were to get a cap or two (plus it's a lot easier to find a club). Both are first choice at for their franchises, definitely for this season at least (I think in Todd's case, McCaw will shift to blindside fairly soon).

We've lost 'em young before. And the chance of them doing a Nick Evans in a year or two would be high also (if they're not picked before then).