As things stand

[An Tarbh]

So as we've hit the half way mark it's interesting to take note of the pool standings and see what possible draw we may have for the quarter finals. Pure speculation I know but what the hell.

As things stand we've got Leinster as top seeds, although they're hardly performing like champions at the moment, followed by Leicester and Cardiff Blues who also have 14 points but an inferior try count. Quins and Toulouse are the other unbeaten sides but Toulouse have yet to find real form in Europe this year ominously so for their opponents. Quins remain unbeaten, fortunately so for them given events in Paris yesterday.

As for the rest, Sale head the way in the pool of death while the 2 runners-up spots currently lie with the Ospreys and Paris.

All leaving us with this possibility for the quarter finals.

Leinster v Paris
Leicester v Ospreys
Cardiff Blues v Sale
Harlequins v Toulouse.

So what odds on this being the final draw for the knock out stages, not much I imagine, you'd get good odds though. No Munster or Wasps. 2 Welsh clubs again? Your thoughts???

 

[Sir Speedy]

Sale need 12 points to have a chance of escaping the pool o' death. Either by getting 10 points from Clermont and Montauban, and two bonus points from Munster, or by winning their three remaining games.
Both seem unlikely, but this is the Heineken Cup!
I'd say the final standings will be (1st - 4th = left - right):

Pool 1: Munster, Sale, Clermont, Montauban

Pool 2: Leinster, Wasps, Edinburgh, Castres

Pool 3: Leicester, Ospreys (runner-up), Perpignan, Treviso

Pool 4: Harlequins, Paris, Ulster, Llanelli

Pool 5: Toulouse, Bath (runner-up), Glasgow, Dragons

Pool 6: Cardiff, Gloucester, Biarritz, Calvisano

This would be the most realistic outcome, in my opinion.

Not sure what the QF's would like then, though.

 

[Sir Speedy]

No-one else care for making midway predictions?

 

[An Tarbh]

It would seem that way, wouldn't it?

Munster should still top pool 1, 3 wins virtually guarantees them top spot, that task could be made easier if Sale fail to pick up bp wins over Clermont and Montauban.

It's Leinster's to screw up in pool 2, a win on Friday and they're through.

Leicester look to have control of pool 3 and I think that'll continue, I think they'll have enough to get the final day win at the Ospreys.

It's a ding dong battle between Quins and Paris, I won't be surprised if the result is reversed this weekend. Could well be 2 qualifiers from this pool.

I think Toulouse have enough to take pool 5 but defeat on the final day could see Bath possibly overtake them depending on the bp situation, either way I think we could again see 2 qualifiers from this pool.

Pool 6 is the hardest to call and despite the 8 point lead over Biarritz I still wouldn't rule them out of the running at this stage, 3 very winnable games for them and they could possibly take maximum points if things click for them, big if though based on this season. It's still advantage Cardiff thanks to that bp win over Gloucester.

 

[cyRil]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (An Tarbh @ Dec 8 2008, 01:17 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

Leicester look to have control of pool 3 and I think that'll continue, I think they'll have enough to get the final day win at the Ospreys.[/b]

******** they will!!
I'm taking the missus who is a Tigers fan ( :huh: ) and will never hear the end of it... Or be single by the end of the day

 

[Chunk]

Don't count Wasps out of it yet. I still fancy our chances for some reason. :huh:

 

[cyRil]

It's probably because you always manage to pick it out of the bag.

 

[Chunk]

And there's that.

We need bonus point wins from the rest of our games though. We have Leinster at hone which helps.

 

[shazbooger]

I see Leicster, Harlequins and Toulouse getting a home quarter final. Leinster, if they win on Friday will join them.

Outside of those, Stade, Munster, Ospreys and Cardiff are looking okay at the moment. Its only getting interesting though. Next weeks round of games will put a better shape on them all.

 

[An Tarbh]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Chunk @ Dec 8 2008, 02:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

And there's that.

We need bonus point wins from the rest of our games though. We have Leinster at hone which helps.[/b]

yes but the match will be irrelevant if we get the wins this week and home to Edinburgh and with no bonus points it's gonna be an uphill task to get a runner up spot.

Looks like Castres are going to make even more changes for this weekend's match so Leinster really should get the win there.

 

[Cymro]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Logorrhea @ Dec 8 2008, 01:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

I see Leicster, Harlequins and Toulouse getting a home quarter final. Leinster, if they win on Friday will join them.

Outside of those, Stade, Munster, Ospreys and Cardiff are looking okay at the moment. Its only getting interesting though. Next weeks round of games will put a better shape on them all.[/b]

Wow I reckon Cardiff are there also, surely?

 

[An Tarbh]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Cymro @ Dec 8 2008, 02:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Logorrhea @ Dec 8 2008, 01:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I see Leicster, Harlequins and Toulouse getting a home quarter final. Leinster, if they win on Friday will join them.

Outside of those, Stade, Munster, Ospreys and Cardiff are looking okay at the moment. Its only getting interesting though. Next weeks round of games will put a better shape on them all.[/b]

Wow I reckon Cardiff are there also, surely?
[/b][/quote]

there's so many possibilities though with Cardiff's group, they can lose the 2 games away to Gloucester and Biarritz and theoretically end up with anything from 19-21 points which probably won't be enough given that you could have at least 2 other groups with teams on 5 wins each so again winning one of those away games is crucial as is picking up whatever bps are available. They could win both games and they'd be sorted or win one and lose one and it's all in the lap of the Gods provided Gloucester can get the win in Biarritz

 

[Chunk]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (An Tarbh @ Dec 8 2008, 01:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Chunk @ Dec 8 2008, 02:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And there's that.

We need bonus point wins from the rest of our games though. We have Leinster at hone which helps.[/b]

yes but the match will be irrelevant if we get the wins this week and home to Edinburgh and with no bonus points it's gonna be an uphill task to get a runner up spot.

Looks like Castres are going to make even more changes for this weekend's match so Leinster really should get the win there.
[/b][/quote]

Hopefully Edinburgh pull one out of the bag and do us a favour? I doubt it.

We don't deserve to qualify anyway to be fair, we haven't been good enough.

 

[shazbooger]

Cardiff's group, like Leinsters will all look a lot clearer after next weekends fixtures. A lot of teams will be formally eliminated at that stage and so you can start looking at more predictable results. With that in mind, I'm still not sure about either Leinster or Cardiff. I reckin both teams are still a little soft and could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

As for Castres changes. Four of them are inforced but are we not expecting the return of a lot of their first teamers? I would imagine a lot of those changes will add quality. Thats why, while I hope Leinster will win (obviously) I have a sneaky feeling they might take a bit of a pummeling.

 

[An Tarbh]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Logorrhea @ Dec 8 2008, 05:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

Cardiff's group, like Leinsters will all look a lot clearer after next weekends fixtures. A lot of teams will be formally eliminated at that stage and so you can start looking at more predictable results. With that in mind, I'm still not sure about either Leinster or Cardiff. I reckin both teams are still a little soft and could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

As for Castres changes. Four of them are inforced but are we not expecting the return of a lot of their first teamers? I would imagine a lot of those changes will add quality. Thats why, while I hope Leinster will win (obviously) I have a sneaky feeling they might take a bit of a pummeling.[/b]

from what I gathered the way Davidson seemed to be talking indicated he had one eye on the Perpignan Top 14 game. Regardless of the team they put out Leinster have to say to themselves that they're good enough to go there and get the win and you'd imagine they'd be up for the game following the lacklustre performance on Saturday, and should they get the win then a home quarter final is up for grabs, what further incentive do they need.

 

[shazbooger]

Yeah I was thinking about this again today. I dont doubt that they will have one eye on the Top14 game, but at the same time they dont want to go into it on the back of two losses to leinster. Castres played without 7-8 first team regulars last week. They also suffered a couple of injuries which will force their hand a little. Castres will be a better side, they will be looking to win, so your right, leinster just have to go out and beat em. I think they can, and will.

Last week they should and could have won by 50-60 points. I'll take a 5-6 point win on Friday.

 

[An Tarbh]

How things can change in this competition. You go from this at the end of play last week

Leinster v Paris
Leicester v Ospreys
Cardiff Blues v Sale
Harlequins v Toulouse.

to this following the final whistle at Perpignan on Sunday

Cardiff Blues v Bath
Harlequins v Leicester
Toulouse v Munster
Ospreys v Leinster

 

[MunsterMan]

I would expect Munster to get 8 points at least out of the next 2 games, I doubt Cardiff will win at Kingsholm or Ospreys in Perpignan so some hope of a home QF yet, however very unlikely. Although a better QF draw than Toulouse away would be nice :huh:

 

[MunsterMan]

So as it stands going in to the last weekend of the group stage, Munster, Leicester, Cardiff and the winner of Toulouse against Bath are the faveourites for a home qf.

 

[An Tarbh]

hard to say with Leicester, their away record this season is woeful so definitely gives the Ospreys a decent chance of turning them over although whether they deny them the bonus is the bigger question.