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Ragey Erasmus

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Just wondering what people's openions were on who we will see becoming rugby powers in the next few years? Whether we think the current top nations will continue to dominate or if there will be a shift to the Northern hemisphere? Which new teams we expect to break into the competition with the top nations like Italy and Argentina did.
 
Just wondering what people's openions were on who we will see becoming rugby powers in the next few years? Whether we think the current top nations will continue to dominate or if there will be a shift to the Northern hemisphere? Which new teams we expect to break into the competition with the top nations like Italy and Argentina did.
Unfortunately I can't really make any comments without sounding like an idiot. NH rugby isn't televised consistently here, so the few times I've tried to get into it I get frustrated by not being able to watch every week.

I feel like NZ is always going to be the team to beat if you want to be number one and I don't think that's going to change based on their young talent. If someone wants to oust them I personally think their best chance would be to pounce in the next year or so - with potentially a new hooker, centres and wings.

As for the NH breaching the supposed gulf it's quite possible, as I said I don't want NH rugby but nothing I have seen in the current player pool leads me to believe that (please don't take offence by this) as England and Wales (who are the teams most capable of doing so) play the same, choking, forward based style that us Saffers do and arguably they do it marginally worse. SA actually seems to be moving in different direction at the moment, but who knows. It's far to early to tell, I guess we'll have a better idea after the EotY tours.
 
Just wondering what people's openions were on who we will see becoming rugby powers in the next few years? Whether we think the current top nations will continue to dominate or if there will be a shift to the Northern hemisphere? Which new teams we expect to break into the competition with the top nations like Italy and Argentina did.

No new teams are going to break into competition in the next few years. As 1) the Pacific Islanders are skint and 2) the rest play bugger all matches with the likes of Italy and Argentina.

Only remote chance of anything happening on that front is if the IRB decide to fast track Japan.
 
I think Ireland will step up a level. Joe Schmidt along with strengthening some weak areas should see Ireland improve greatly in the next year or two.

In terms of new nations emerging I think the likes of Georgia and Romania are leading the way. There could be some others spring up too. Many countries doing a lot of work behind the scenes to become stronger.
 
I think Ireland will step up a level. Joe Schmidt along with strengthening some weak areas should see Ireland improve greatly in the next year or two.

In terms of new nations emerging I think the likes of Georgia and Romania are leading the way. There could be some others spring up too. Many countries doing a lot of work behind the scenes to become stronger.

Explain to me how the hell they are going to emerge when they play no matches against Tier 1 outside the World Cup? 1 match if they are lucky.

As long as they are stuck playing crap tournaments with their experimental sides like the IRB Nations Cup and the IRB Tbilisi Cup with such sides as South Africa President's XV and Emerging Italy they aren't going anywhere until that changes I'm afraid.
 
Explain to me how the hell they are going to emerge when they play no matches against Tier 1 outside the World Cup? 1 match if they are lucky.

As long as they are stuck playing crap tournaments with their experimental sides like the IRB Nations Cup and the IRB Tbilisi Cup with such sides as South Africa President's XV and Emerging Italy they aren't going anywhere until that changes I'm afraid.


The better they get the more opportunities they'll get against tier 1 opposition. Just like Samoa.
 
I think Ireland will step up a level. Joe Schmidt along with strengthening some weak areas should see Ireland improve greatly in the next year or two.

Yeah, the next few years should be quite exciting from a NH perspective. Looking at the 6 nations sides:

Ireland should improve under a competent coach, although they need to develop a new centre partnership and sharpish, there's a few promising players in that department though.

England have all the makings of a great side, with an abundance of talent in most positions. Lancaster is just the guy to guide them as well, as long as he learn's from the mistakes he made last season of picking players out of position.

Scotland are improving, and for once have a backline with genuinely exciting players.

Wales are brimming with talent, but simply have to take that next step and start beating SH sides regularly, starting with the AI's. There are still a few issues regarding strength in depth in certain positions, but this is gradually improving.

Who the hell knows with France though!

Italy, I can't decide about. On the one hand a few of their influential players are on the wane (e.g. Castro), but they are developing a more competitive edge and challenging all sides. The lack of quality at junior level is a little worrying though.

Hopefully we'll see some hugely competitive 6 nations tournaments in the coming years, helping to drive all the sides forwards, further closing the gap between us and the SANZAR nations, although realistically that gap is only now apparent between us and NZ.
 
NZ will continue to dominate.

SA and Australia will be nearly constantly in the top 5, but England, Wales and maybe Ireland will start to compete with them for 2nd/3rd. (I say maybe Ireland, because I think BO'D and PO'C retiring will be enormous losses.)

I think the Top14 not developing enough Frenchmen may stunt the French in a few positions and may put back their progress.

Argentina and Samoa are too unpredictable to be called. Italy and Scotland... can see them improving, but not improving as fast as the rest.
 
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The better they get the more opportunities they'll get against tier 1 opposition. Just like Samoa.

They beat Canada and USA and in 2010/2011 were arguably the top Tier 2 side outside the Pacific Islands, and got nothing from it. They've now gone backwards since then. Improving and getting more opportunities are linked.

Also comparing them to Samoa is silly. Samoa has had Tier 1 matches for years in Europe, including the times they hadn't properly exploited the fact they are next door to the greatest rugby nation on earth.

They had a 3 match Europe tour of Tier 1 matches in 2009, following on from a poor 2007 RWC. They have as many matches now as they did before they improved.
 
I think Ireland will step up a level. Joe Schmidt along with strengthening some weak areas should see Ireland improve greatly in the next year or two

Yeah, Who knows, they might even have more than 3 players in the next British and Welsh Lions team...
 
I think people are being a bit to optimistic about Ireland here we're definitely going to improve under Joe it's very hard not to but it's not going to be all wonderful and butterflies from November onwards. I think we should have a good year next year BOD and POC will still be around for this transition phase to provode experience combined with some of the younger guys like Luke Marshal and Zebo which should lead to a good team and solid 6N. However longer term we're in a bit of trouble BOD and POC won't be around for 2015 (POC might) and we lack in 2nd row and centers in particular. I see Payne as the next best 13 in Ireland so if he decides to declare for us him and Marshal would be great but who do we have at 2nd row Ryan and McCarty were decent but were exposed in the line out in the 6N. I don't think we'll be up in the top 3 consistently any time soon, maybe I'm wrong though.
 
As long as SA stay in the top 2 I'm happy enough but to get back to consistently beating the ABs is our aim. We have been left behind somewhat after readmission and professionalism and then again we had no real development in the PdV days but HM has made some improvements to our systems not just at test level and there are plans that will hopefully come into being. We have class young guys coming through every year as well (although not always in positions to make up for our weaknesses) so things look on track to at least keep the status quo IMO. I actually don't think much will change on a whole from how things stand ATM. I can see Wales climbing back up to about no.4 or 5 behind England but that's just because they fell due a 3rd string team losing in japan.
 
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They beat Canada and USA and in 2010/2011 were arguably the top Tier 2 side outside the Pacific Islands, and got nothing from it. They've now gone backwards since then. Improving and getting more opportunities are linked.

Also comparing them to Samoa is silly. Samoa has had Tier 1 matches for years in Europe, including the times they hadn't properly exploited the fact they are next door to the greatest rugby nation on earth.

They had a 3 match Europe tour of Tier 1 matches in 2009, following on from a poor 2007 RWC. They have as many matches now as they did before they improved.


The problem for Georgia is they're not going to generate much interest for Tier 1 fans and tier 1 countries won't go to Georgia to play because theres not enough money in it for them. Until they have a few big scalps like Samoa did, they might not get many games. The Samoans also have a few household names playing for them and are technically a level above Georgia.


I think people are being a bit to optimistic about Ireland here we're definitely going to improve under Joe it's very hard not to but it's not going to be all wonderful and butterflies from November onwards. I think we should have a good year next year BOD and POC will still be around for this transition phase to provode experience combined with some of the younger guys like Luke Marshal and Zebo which should lead to a good team and solid 6N. However longer term we're in a bit of trouble BOD and POC won't be around for 2015 (POC might) and we lack in 2nd row and centers in particular. I see Payne as the next best 13 in Ireland so if he decides to declare for us him and Marshal would be great but who do we have at 2nd row Ryan and McCarty were decent but were exposed in the line out in the 6N. I don't think we'll be up in the top 3 consistently any time soon, maybe I'm wrong though.


I'm not being too optimistic, I can see whats there already and whats coming through now. All the millions thats being pumped into the underage game over the past decade is starting to pay off. With a world class coach coming on board we should see a gradual improvement over the coming years. In the next year or two we should see a few big changes to the playing squad.
 
I think Canada, Georgia, USA and Japan are the nations with the best chances of improving over the next few years. Rugby is getting a lot more popular over here and we now have a lot more kiddies playing the game. I also think Rugby Canada has done an excellent job building actual pathways towards the national team. We do not have a professional competition in this country but our top players are now being subsidized to play and the fact we have now have a centre of excellence to play at bolsters our chances immensely. I think the fact we drew 22,000 fans to watch Canada play Ireland and the game was broadcast on live television across the country on a night when both the Stanley Cup and UFC were on television shows the potential for growth in this country.

The Pacific Islands will always be near the top ten but will never be able to truly crack into the top due to their low populations. I have a hope that Canada can be on par with both Italy and Scotland in the next 10 to 15 years.
 
Argentina are also doing a lot better at Junior level, last year 4th and this year 6th (with a little more luck could've been higher). Hopefully this year the home wins on the Rugby Championship will come. It's sad that aside from the big names in Europe there still isn't a way for their massive number of amateurs to bridge the gap with pros. At best they can expect to play for Pampas XV in the Vodacom Cup (one tier below Currie Cup) and irrelevant internationals against Brazil, Uruguay and Chile (please don't be offended, but it's a fact even Argentina's D side is light years ahead of your best possible XVs). If they can solve that with either a local domestic pro structure or more integration with Super Rugby they can finally achieve the consistency to match the size of their cojones.
 
Given their current trajectory and pool of players Samoa should 'break through' in that I'd expect them to make the Quater Finals in 2015. In the last year or so they have put in some great performances, largely based around having their best players available to them and more time to prepare.

Of course you could argue that Samoa are an 'established' nation so arguably don't count for this thread. In that case I'd say Japan stand a good chance. They have a couple of players in Super Rugby this year including Tanaka who has challenged Aaron Smith for selection at the Highlanders. The victory over Wales possibly having a galvanizing effect on the popularity of Japanese rugby might also play a part. Of course in the long term Japanese clubs will have to spend less on overseas players and get more game time.
 
Yeah, the next few years should be quite exciting from a NH perspective. Looking at the 6 nations sides:

Ireland should improve under a competent coach, although they need to develop a new centre partnership and sharpish, there's a few promising players in that department though.

England have all the makings of a great side, with an abundance of talent in most positions. Lancaster is just the guy to guide them as well, as long as he learn's from the mistakes he made last season of picking players out of position.

Scotland are improving, and for once have a backline with genuinely exciting players.

Wales are brimming with talent, but simply have to take that next step and start beating SH sides regularly, starting with the AI's. There are still a few issues regarding strength in depth in certain positions, but this is gradually improving.

Who the hell knows with France though!

Italy, I can't decide about. On the one hand a few of their influential players are on the wane (e.g. Castro), but they are developing a more competitive edge and challenging all sides. The lack of quality at junior level is a little worrying though.

Hopefully we'll see some hugely competitive 6 nations tournaments in the coming years, helping to drive all the sides forwards, further closing the gap between us and the SANZAR nations, although realistically that gap is only now apparent between us and NZ.
I live in Wales and chat with the locals about welsh rugby most are pretty hopeful for the neat future but can't see who is coming through in the front row to replace Adam jones , gethin Jenkins and maybe hibbard as he's 30ish too . What's your opinion on this ?
 
Richard Hibbard -> Ken Owens
Adam Jones -> Craig Mitchell -> Samson Lee
Gethin Jenkins -> Paul James -> Ryan Bevington

I think?
 

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