Bet on the Lions Winning?

[Ludders93]

Earlier this season, after i saw them win comfortably in Durban against the Sharks, I put a £2,000 bet on the Lions at 7/1 to win the grand final.
I was very happy with their win over the Crusaders, they have an electric back line and scored some great tries. There were a few moments where it looked like the Crusaders were getting on top, but in the end the margin of victory was quite comfortable.
But I was still annoyed on the weekend, I was really hoping for the Brumbies to beat the Highlanders, or the Stormers to beat the Chiefs. If either of these two home sides had won, they would have travelled to Johannesburg for the semi final, instead of the Highlanders. In addition I wanted the Sharks to knock out the Hurricanes (unlikely!) to give the Lions home advantage, but none of this happened.

My question to the RF readers is this. Should I cash out my £2,000 bet for £3,200. It's only a £1,200 profit. If the Lions win I win £16,000 (£14,000 profit) And I think the Lions can beat the Highlanders. But the problem is I don't think they can beat the Hurricanes away for the ***le. So for the Lions to win Super Rugby, I need the Chiefs to win in Wellington. So Basically I need 3 straight results, Lions beating Landers, Chiefs beating Canes, then Lions beating Chiefs. Getting all these 3 results is pretty unlikely.

What does everyone think. Do the Lions have any chance if they have to travel to Wellington for the final? Should I wait for the Lions to hopefully beat the Highlanders than see how much I'm offered.

Any thoughts appreciated!

 

[nickdnz]

I'm not a betting man - so my instinct would be to cash out! Earlier in the season the Lions lost to the Hurricanes 50-17. Not saying it would necessarily happen again (or even the Canes making the final...) but I think there are still some pretty long odds on a Lions win.

 

[Ludders93]

The bookies early prices to qualify
Lions 54% Highlanders 46%
Hurricanes 63% Chiefs 37%

Based on those numbers, I have exactly a 1 in 5 chance of getting the Lions vs Chiefs in J-Berg final I want.

Maybe the Dane Coles injury helps the Chiefs out. The Lions did win in hamilton earlier this year, but their odds of winning a final in Wellington against the Hurricanes surely wouldn't be better than 30%.

This all assumes of course that the Lions actually beat the Highlanders, a game which is basically 50/50. I'm confident the Lions can get the win, they should have more possession than they had vs the Crusaders, but the Highlanders defence is better, and they're sharper on attack.

Still so annoyed the Brumbies weren't given that clear try against the Highlanders! If the Brumbies were coming to J-Berg I'd be ultra-confident. The Highlanders have had a tiring schedule for the last few weeks, and hopefully the altitude's a step too far.

Just some projections for how much I'll be offered from my £2,000 bet to return £16,000.

At the moment £3,400.
If Lions + Hurricanes win, £4,900
If Lions + Chiefs win, £8,600

 

[Jaguares]

The Chiefs can beat the Canes at Cake Tin IMO

 

[TRF_heineken]

I think you should hold on for one more week before deciding.

The Lions have a home SF against the Highlanders and the Highlanders will have to travel to SA this week and try and get used to the altitude, something we saw the Crusaders struggled with at the end of the match.

Wait and see if the Lions will have a home final...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Will you ba able to pull out after the weekend?

I'd back the Lions over the Highlanders in Jo'burg. I'd be unwilling to risk the pay-out on any eventual final though (assuming the Lions do make it passed the Highanders) even if it were the Lions at home to the Chiefs, certainly not the Lions at Wellington.

That said I do know I tend to underrate the Highlanders' pack and the Highlanders do posess a couple of players who's individual brilliance is difficult to account for.

 

[George Ford]

Will you ba able to pull out after the weekend?

I'd back the Lions over the Highlanders in Jo'burg. I'd be unwilling to risk the pay-out on any eventual final though (assuming the Lions do make it passed the Highanders) even if it were the Lions at home to the Chiefs, certainly not the Lions at Wellington.

That said I do know I tend to underrate the Highlanders' pack and the Highlanders do posess a couple of players who's individual brilliance is difficult to account for.

The Highlanders IMO are the best Kiwi team. Their backline alone can be slotted into their national side as is. They tend to lift the ante in playoff matches, as proven last year when they overpowered the Waratahs at home and held their nerve in Wellington over the Canes.

That said gives the Lions less of a chance, which then I will implore you to keep on backing them

 

[austingtir]

Really hard to predict this game the Highlanders have traveled far to much to have any real confidence in a win. IMO they'd beat this lions team under any other circumstances.

 

[WaterboySA]

I deleted my reply before posting it........regarding playing the Lions in SA.....please get over it and enjoy the game?

 

[Ludders93]

Cheers for the feedback, I'm going to hold until after the weekend.
I can cash out after the weekend before the final if the Lions win.
My bet stake is £2,000, and total return is £16,000.
At the moment I'm being offered £3,400.
After the weekend I'm guessing I'll be offered £4,900 if the Lions win but have to go to Wellington to play the Hurricanes in the final.
And £8,2000 if the Lions win and are hosting the chiefs in J-berg for the final.

Annoyed about Whiteley being ruled out but the Lions still have a lot of attacking weapons. I Hope it's a good game. The Highlanders are a great team to watch, so good at turning defence into attack. They've had a tough travel schedule, but after a whole week to prepare in J-Berg they'll be ready. If you asked me to pick a winner I'd probably say the Highlanders by 3 points, but I can still hope.

Cheers for feedback once more and hope everyone enjoys the games

 

[Gena_ZA]

Lions won, bet out and take the winnings.
This Hurricanes side at home will be a scary prospect

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

My heart says go for it, my head say cash out.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

So if you pull out now it'll be £5k (£3k profit). If you stay in and Lions win it'll be £16k (£14k profit). So does that make the odds for you now roughly 3-1 for the final?

Again I'm no betting man and think you are mad to gamble so much (no offense meant, but is get the same buzz off a £200 bet) but people are totally underestimating the Lions from what I've seen in recent weeks largely due to a misunderstanding about how their schedule was not that much softer than the NZ one yet they had the No. 1 seed in their pocket. To hear commentators acting like Jantjies performance was unexpected was pretty laughable (I've been talking him up since the Ireland series having seen him earlier in the year). Ackerman is also clearly a top flight coach.

I picked the Lions in the semi thread to win by 10+ against HL despite having seen the HL beat the Chiefs a few weeks back and seem to be hitting their stride. The HL, Chiefs and Canes are all of a comparable strength. Remains to be seen if Canes scrum half will be suspended for kicking out (I suspect not) which would also be a factor.

If you were being offered 3-1 on the Lions winning the final I think you'd take it. I'd put the Canes as 3-7 points favourites and their scorline against the Chiefs flattered them. If you are comfortable with such a huge gamble on one game on the understanding the Lions are underdogs then I would find this bet very hard to walk away from. I'd check the forecast though. Lions might be doomed if conditions are terrible despite their superior pack. Hurricanes were outstanding against the Sharks in stormy conditions.

 

[Ludders93]

So if you pull out now it'll be £5k (£3k profit). If you stay in and Lions win it'll be £16k (£14k profit). So does that make the odds for you now roughly 3-1 for the final?

Not quite 3/1, closer to 2/1. Remember if you bet £100 at 2/1, you get £300 (£200 profit and your £100 stake). So if I cashed out for £5,000, and bet on the Lions at 2/1 I'd get £15,000.

The reason I'm being offered this exact amount is because the Lions are being priced as 2/1 (33%) underdogs for the final.

They played some brilliant rugby, but the Hurricanes look so strong at home, and SA teams travelling to NZ just have such awful records.
The weather forecast as you say is important, and it looks wet and windy according to a few forecasts I've seen.
I don't think this Hurricanes team are invincible, but their defence was pretty ferocious against the Chiefs. Home advantage is huge. I've got a week to decide, hopefully Perenara gets banned, Coles ruled out with injury and a few other things swing the odds back closer towards the Lions, but my gut feeling is I might take the money and run.

Cheers for the feedback!

 

[Regan]

So if you pull out now it'll be £5k (£3k profit). If you stay in and Lions win it'll be £16k (£14k profit). So does that make the odds for you now roughly 3-1 for the final?

Not quite 3/1, closer to 2/1. Remember if you bet £100 at 2/1, you get £300 (£200 profit and your £100 stake). So if I cashed out for £5,000, and bet on the Lions at 2/1 I'd get £15,000.

The reason I'm being offered this exact amount is because the Lions are being priced as 2/1 (33%) underdogs for the final.

They played some brilliant rugby, but the Hurricanes look so strong at home, and SA teams travelling to NZ just have such awful records.
The weather forecast as you say is important, and it looks wet and windy according to a few forecasts I've seen.
I don't think this Hurricanes team are invincible, but their defence was pretty ferocious against the Chiefs. Home advantage is huge. I've got a week to decide, hopefully Perenara gets banned, Coles ruled out with injury and a few other things swing the odds back closer towards the Lions, but my gut feeling is I might take the money and run.

Cheers for the feedback!

Can you partial cash out your bet? Some sites offer it, could be a goer - take the amount you invested, maybe some profit and leave the rest in the bet. Would ensure you at least break even.

Personally if I was you, I'd cash out - maybe cash out and out the profit on the spread, just to gain some more profit if you really wanted. Just seems like too much on the Lions to win to keep the full amount there.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Can't see the Lions winning, I'd definitely cash out now...

 

[Ludders93]

The weather forecast for Wellington looks wet and windy, again! does the sun ever shine in that place.

I can't see the Lions winning, I really can't. Having said that I couldn't see the Highlanders winning last year's final, and that Hurricanes team was better than this one.

Partial cash out is an option, as is re-investing some profit on the spread. The Hurricanes are 7 point favourites at the moment. I think the Hurricanes odds will keep coming in as most people will bet on them.

The Hurricanes have hit this wave of form since they beat the Highlanders in May, and are playing with a ferocity on defence that's kept the Sharks and Chiefs try less.

I still don't think they're an outstanding team, I'd probably say the Chiefs and Highlanders offer more on attack than them, but the form of Perenara and especially Barrett is scoring them tries.

This Lions team are good, but are they good enough to go to Wellington and win in **** weather. Probably not.

 

[austingtir]

If I was the Lions id just about be knocking the ball on on purpose at the start of this final just to get a few scrums in and assert some dominance early on.

Id of thought if they get on top of the Canes scrum early on they'll make it very difficult indeed for the Canes. I think the HL did that to the Canes last year in the final BTW.


The Lions slaughtered the Saders and HL packs cant see it going any different against the Canes as imo they are 4 or 5 best forward pack in nz.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

You had a mind to cash out the previous week. I'd do so now if it were my money. 2/1 is tempting though but while the Lions are in good form and I'd have had half a mind to back them for the ***le at home it'd take a bit of luck IMO to have them do so whilst travelling. I'd say Hurricanes by ~8 is a fair call.

 

[austingtir]

You had a mind to cash out the previous week. I'd do so now if it were my money. 2/1 is tempting though but while the Lions are in good form and I'd have had half a mind to back them for the ***le at home it'd take a bit of luck IMO to have them do so whilst travelling. I'd say Hurricanes by ~8 is a fair call.

Dane Coles ribs are still suspect. I cant see anything other than the Canes tight 5 going backwards at a huge rate of knots.