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2024 Guinness Six Nations
Building a prediction model for game scores - what variables? (also MatchPint game)
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<blockquote data-quote="Tadginator" data-source="post: 929483" data-attributes="member: 50238"><p>You didn't mention what you did when not excluding but shoukd include home or away as a binary variable, as opposed to just excluding away games. </p><p>I'd also include an interaction effect with time on most of the variables. That would allow you to accommodate the changing players and styles of the team. </p><p>Form would be a useful indicator too. Perhaps have sort of time series variables as in the record in the last 4 or 5 games or else the record in the tournament so far. </p><p>Strength of domestic teams in europe may be a reasonable form guide too.</p><p>Even the bookies odds of win vs loss vs draw could be useful if it's hard to find odds of the scores historically. The chances of a win will be based upon the bookies underlying model which will account for a lot of these variables and higher certainty of win would be associated with higher score difference etc.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Tadginator, post: 929483, member: 50238"] You didn't mention what you did when not excluding but shoukd include home or away as a binary variable, as opposed to just excluding away games. I'd also include an interaction effect with time on most of the variables. That would allow you to accommodate the changing players and styles of the team. Form would be a useful indicator too. Perhaps have sort of time series variables as in the record in the last 4 or 5 games or else the record in the tournament so far. Strength of domestic teams in europe may be a reasonable form guide too. Even the bookies odds of win vs loss vs draw could be useful if it's hard to find odds of the scores historically. The chances of a win will be based upon the bookies underlying model which will account for a lot of these variables and higher certainty of win would be associated with higher score difference etc. [/QUOTE]
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2024 Guinness Six Nations
Building a prediction model for game scores - what variables? (also MatchPint game)
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