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[COVID-19] General Discussion

Kiwiwomble

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What is the overall vaccination rate in the UK at the moment? in aus the rate is somewhere north of 93% for over 12's. so for some i think there is a little "what do you mean theyre not vaccinated?" because an overwhelming number are here and if you're not then you are probably a full on anti vaxxer and everyone is well aware
 

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Well that's Slade out. Anyone else in the England team?
Hill shared some dumb opinions on social media as well

Shame it comes in on the 24th, this weekend could've been a dress rehearsal and we could've see which Exeter players are missing
 

The_Blindside

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What is the overall vaccination rate in the UK at the moment? in aus the rate is somewhere north of 93% for over 12's. so for some i think there is a little "what do you mean theyre not vaccinated?" because an overwhelming number are here and if you're not then you are probably a full on anti vaxxer and everyone is well aware
71.5% of total UK population double jabbed and 54.4% with booster per Guardian.
 

Kiwiwomble

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71.5% of total UK population double jabbed and 54.4% with booster per Guardian.
anyone have a good feel for the difference? i think a lot would have thought NZ, Aus and the UK would have similar attitudes
 

The_Blindside

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anyone have a good feel for the difference? i think a lot would have thought NZ, Aus and the UK would have similar attitudes
I know about c.11% are under 12 and I think only vulnerable 5-11 have been authorised with 1 jab of Pfizer atm.

However, IIRC around 5m of population. still remain totally unvaccinated. Either outright refuse, hesitant, caught it already and have antibodies or just not got around to it thinking they won’t catch it or will get seriously ill from it (relying on their immunity being strong enough to fight off infection) or medically can’t get vaccinated.

UK population is c.68m. Australia is 26m and NZ 5m. I am sure NZ and Aus will have the same unvaxxed just smaller numbers and proportion now.
 

Not Mike Brown's Sock

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Slade may have been vaccinated since that statement in fairness, and if he hasn't, I am sure he will have gone and got an exemption. I'd hope that if that is the case, the RFU are making sure everything is sorted before they get on the plane
 

Bruce_ma gooshvili

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A study indicates that deaths in England & Wales within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test but not assessed as having been caused by Covid ran at around 15% in the months prior to Xmas (primarily Delta). In the week after Xmas this rose by ~50% to 22% (primarily Omicron).

Given that cases doubled between the week before Xmas and New Years day, I'd guesstimate that this figure will have risen to somewhere between 25 & 50% during the last week of peak deaths (for Omicron). This would make the current daily death figure for the UK of ~260 per day actually nearer 130 to 195.

Scotland has just announced it'll be lifting all restrictions and guidance except for isolation when positive, masks, vaccine certificates, regular tests and working from home where possible. Essentially indicating we'll be attempting to manage this as an endemic and that peak deaths from Omicron are something medically and politically tolerable.

It is burning out quicker than I was expecting to be honest. I was thinking we would be in this position by this time next month. I might have to start looking at gigs scheduled for February at this rate. :)

 

Bruce_ma gooshvili

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And a further sign the Chinese government has backed itself into a corner by not using US produced vaccines. While most of the world is at various stages of improvement, they are resorting to slaughtering animals at the behest of their 'dear Leader'.

 

Amiga500

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Didnt they say they were sharing numbers with abroad and with places like SA they felt they didn't have enough data on virulency of Omicron. Therefore they factored it in at a standard rate rather than best case with it actually being milder because they needed to plan in case it wasn't. Because by the time they could have the exact numbers it would of been too late if its wasn't.

Seams like a pretty reasonable assumption to me.

But we have two self appointed guru's here, you do both realise how arrogantly stupid you come across when you say you know better with no qualifications? Right?
Who says I've no qualifications in numerical modelling?

Anyway. Sharing numbers and actually using numbers are two very different things.

Yes, agreed that there are differences between SA and UK in age profiles etc - but not bothering to model both (and many more in between and either side) is simply not good enough. [not that I'm really sure is the case - but they certainly didn't pay much heed to the results.]

and its been clear here for at least 2 weeks now that Omicron is significantly weaker than Delta - and that it has no significant impact on hospital case loads. Its probably been clear in SA for 3+ weeks.

Yet where are SAGE? A day late and a dollar short. As usual. It near seems like they've been looking for 3 sigma levels of certainty on this from the get-go; far too slow to ramp up and far too slow to ramp down. Too much academia and not enough industry within the body.

Also if they didn't think masks protected folks - they need shown the door immediately - a breathtaking level of "Not Invented Here" given most of Asia knew of the benefits of masks over the past couple of decades - minimum. If they did - then they should have been honest and said "look everyone, face masks work - but we need to keep the good ones for critical care workers who really really need them. In the meantime, use a cloth mask, at worst it'll dramatically reduce chances of you spreading it". Not the mixed messaging crap we got which I interpreted at the time as them protecting the politicians.

In a few weeks they'll probably wake up to the realisation we'd be better served by encouraging the spread of Omicron in the general population as it'd mean better immunity levels across the population (including the anti-vax crowd) - in case another more dangerous variant did come along (which I would expect to not outcompete Omicron anyway as Omicron is not so deep into the lungs = milder & easier to spread).

If you want to see if my predictions were of any use, you can read back through my posts on this thread to see how I did when I was complaining very loudly at the start.


edit: typo
 
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The_Blindside

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So plan B restrictions are inevitably going to be lifted. So it’s get back to normal because like the virus is still there just not spreading as fast that cases are rocketing exponentially.

So time to catch the virus and get it over with? Something I doubt this Government or Sage mention as part of the debate of how to live with this virus.
 

Bruce_ma gooshvili

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More signs of China being stuck in a corner. Wear masks and gloves when opening mail. Seems a strange move given their official stance (unverified) is that Sinovac does the business against Omicron.


Sputnik developers also coming out yesterday saying their vaccine is better against Omicron than any previous variant, which would make it a world first. Again unverified and inconsistent with independent study.


Hopefully it is the case that Sinovac and Sputnik do provide some at least some protection against severe disease. I'm not aware of any country other than Russia or China that is wholly dependent on the above vaccines and wouldn't rely on the fatality data for those two vaccines - so I don't think it is going to be possible to make a reasonable assessment of the impact of Omicron on populations without Pfizer & Moderna.

Check out Russia's stats below. I admittedly don't know how they are calculating things but they appear to be the only nation to avoid Covid 'waves' (sharp peaks and troughs) and seasonal variations. If anything, they can record more deaths in summer than in winter.

 

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ncurd

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Why aren’t the UK governments?
I can't speak for devolved ones but England is going to pretend the virus doesn't exist from later today in an attempt to save a PM dead in the water.
 

Le Frére Alpha

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Our plans to start our phased reopening expected this week with the Tainiste claiming the plan is to have virtually no restrictions by April. This follows a sharp reduction in cases despite not having a full lockdown with widespread immunity and boosters being credited.

Hopefully it comes to fruition because it will suit me fantastically well but planning anything long term has proven to be difficult in this climate.
 

The_Blindside

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I can't speak for devolved ones but England is going to pretend the virus doesn't exist from later today in an attempt to save a PM dead in the water.
Yes, all to placate the Tory back benchers, including those who are telling him to go.


But it just makes little sense to me.
 

Bruce_ma gooshvili

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Yes, all to placate the Tory back benchers, including those who are telling him to go.


But it just makes little sense to me.

Even I think getting rid of face coverings, passes and home working is at least a month premature. I'd be laying low for a further month or so if I was in England with a vulnerable relative and be revisiting the situation then. We are still talking about a sizeable number of people dying and the chances of picking Omicron up on public transport or in the workplace at this moment in time must still be pretty huge.

I'd be wanting a detailed breakdown of the proportion of ICU and deaths that are of those without full vaccination before supporting this (it'd have to be upwards of 90% to get me on board at this moment in time). I'd also be wanting confirmation of what proportion of English cases are the more lethal Delta variant. Is it effectively completely out of circulation now?

Thank duck for devolution remains my mantra. At home until 31st March as a minimum. Even if they've routinely cocked it up here, they don't have quite such a taste for trailblazing experimentation with human lives and don't seem to consider that telling people to put on a face covering during a pandemic is the most beastly thing imaginable.
 

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