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[COVID-19] General Discussion

Bruce_ma gooshvili

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My first work experience I had to work alongside a TV repair guy who repeatedly sang "Once, twice, two times a lady". Absolutely did my head in.
 

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Bruce_ma gooshvili

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So up here we finally, finally seem to be putting Omicron to bed thanks to Omicron specific boosters from Moderna for the over 50s.

Meanwhile, in China - 'strongman' gonna strongman.


Reportedly almost two thirds of the Chinese GDP is in areas now eligible for the Covid zero treatment. So the enigmatic idiot that is Xi must choose between literally destroying his already flagging economy OR accept he has got it wrong, relax restrictions and, because he has only permitted inferior domestic vaccines, potentially see fatality rates like we saw in Hong Kong back in spring. This would translate into many hundreds of thousands of deaths in mainland China, possibly millions if they have loads of elderly folk, which is not sure about given the cultural revolution in the 60s that managed to kill so many who would be elderly today had they lived.

Unless I'm missing some major advance China has made (or their vaccination rate is way beyond HK) then we are going to witness a potential catastrophe there in the coming months. One of the most technologically advanced nations on earth, the first to be exposed to the virus and the nation still a prisoner to Covid after even the third world has got it largely licked. Bloody tyrants!
Finally seeing some reporting on this in terms of estimates (the usually very slow, reactive reporting we have seen from day one in my opinion). I said hundreds of thousands of Chinese deaths conservatively as I didn't want to be alarmist. Estimates now around 2 million (which I think may also be conservative unless there is a newly dominant subvariant of Omicron that I'd far weaker than what Hong Kong experienced around March/April).

 

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Finally seeing some reporting on this in terms of estimates (the usually very slow, reactive reporting we have seen from day one in my opinion). I said hundreds of thousands of Chinese deaths conservatively as I didn't want to be alarmist. Estimates now around 2 million (which I think may also be conservative unless there is a newly dominant subvariant of Omicron that I'd far weaker than what Hong Kong experienced around March/April).

And we think vaccine hesitancy was bad in the west as well. Without a mRNA vaccines to
Vaccinate the vulnerable groups within the 1.4billion population Xi has got China in an absolute bind of never ending lockdowns. Sad state of affairs of their own making. Unfortunately the Chinese worst attribute of “not losing face” at play.
 

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And we think vaccine hesitancy was bad in the west as well. Without a mRNA vaccines to
Vaccinate the vulnerable groups within the 1.4billion population Xi has got China in an absolute bind of never ending lockdowns. Sad state of affairs of their own making. Unfortunately the Chinese worst attribute of “not losing face” at play.
A vaccine was the only way to end the pandemic in a short (years) time frame rather than decades if you let the virus and people's immunites evolve naturally. However, as an observation hindsight also shows that lockdowns were effective too when combined with the vaccine. Britain could well have had less deaths by locking down more effectively and tbh I still feel the government got lucky that the vaccine were so effective so quickly. If they had taken longer to develop or needed more trial and error then Britain was screwed because the government had no plan outside of 'miracle vaccine cure'.
 

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A vaccine was the only way to end the pandemic in a short (years) time frame rather than decades if you let the virus and people's immunites evolve naturally. However, as an observation hindsight also shows that lockdowns were effective too when combined with the vaccine. Britain could well have had less deaths by locking down more effectively and tbh I still feel the government got lucky that the vaccine were so effective so quickly. If they had taken longer to develop or needed more trial and error then Britain was screwed because the government had no plan outside of 'miracle vaccine cure'.

Yes but 200k deaths later hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I am not sure where Hancock got his 820k figure I recall Imperial college London’s estimate at the time was 500k deaths if we did not lock down in March which then spooked Bojo’s government into action.

Also IIRC one of the eminent Scientists was saying if he got 20k deaths in 2020 it would be deemed a success.

We could have got a SK level of death rate had we been properly prepared and that level of testing, tracing. But we’re not willing as a society to go to that level.

China - SMH at how they got to where they are now and their continued stubborn insistence of zero Covid.
 

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Yes but 200k deaths later hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I am not sure where Hancock got his 820k figure I recall Imperial college London’s estimate at the time was 500k deaths if we did not lock down in March which then spooked Bojo’s government into action.

Also IIRC one of the eminent Scientists was saying if he got 20k deaths in 2020 it would be deemed a success.

We could have got a SK level of death rate had we been properly prepared and that level of testing, tracing. But we’re not willing as a society to go to that level.

China - SMH at how they got to where they are now and their continued stubborn insistence of zero Covid.
True. I can imagine though that if there was a new outbreak like covid in the next 20 years Britain still wouldn't be prepared like the Asian nations were after SARS. Why spend money on something that might happen when you can hope it doesn't.
 

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True. I can imagine though that if there was a new outbreak like covid in the next 20 years Britain still wouldn't be prepared like the Asian nations were after SARS. Why spend money on something that might happen when you can hope it doesn't.
I suspect right now they Pfizer and Moderna are already working on the vaccine for the next one based on mRNA tech ready to tweak more quickly than 2 years it took for this one. Money still to be made for the next big one.
 

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I was at my GP at couple of weeks ago and asked if he had heard if the under 50s were due to have boosters. He confirmed he had not.

Pretty much confirmed that the rest of us not eligible is about catching it and building up immunity each time so that it is not as bad each time.
 

Bruce_ma gooshvili

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Rumours China will move to permit the US mRNA vaccines rather than potentially consigning millions to death by removing restrictions on an unprotected populace in the height of winter. Apparently they permit a Pfizer oral remedy for use in emergencies so quite what the objection is to the vaccines is anyones guess.

There have been some complete muppets globally but Xi is taking the cake when it comes to arrogance, ' vaccine patriotism' and mismanagement. Anecdotal reports that many Chinese are so spooked by what is happening they are pretty much locking themselves down because it isn't safe for the vulnerable to go out due to the abject failure of the state.

 

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The Times reporting estimates of 1m deaths in China from them reversing zero Covid policy.

US state dept. expressing concern that this will also give the virus a chance to mutate and posing a new threat for it to spread worldwide. A large wave necessary for China to get to endemic state and stop future lockdowns.


This sadly isn’t over yet, if it does mutate and spreads worldwide.
 
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Bruce_ma gooshvili

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I'm not worried about mutation. I predicted here at the start of Omicron that it was very unlikely we'd see something replace Omicron this year and I've not read anything to convince me to change the opinion that Omicron is going to be very stubborn and able to out-compete rival variants (new or old).

Meanwhile, more utter madness. Pfizer jags going to China but only permitted for use on German ex-pats. In return lucky Chinese citizens in Germany can choose to receive the crappy Chinese vaccine (I don't know if they are forbidden foreign vaccines even if abroad).


China also confirmed as not classifying deaths or cases accurately. It'll be interesting if the impending catastrophe (be it financial or death rate) hits outside media. I'm surprised the protests did. Xi is such an enigma I almost wonder if he is happy for the country to burn as punishment for them protesting. The man is a fruit loop and I don't think even his own politburo have a clue what his motivations are on many things. Let along us foreigners.
 

Bruce_ma gooshvili

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Xi says no deaths on Wednesday but independent analysis is indicating 5k deaths per day and rising. Who to believe? 🤔


Here is a quote from a Shanghai private hospital social media account that was quickly taken down.

"In this tragic battle, the entire Greater Shanghai will fall, and we will infect all the staff of the hospital! We will infect the whole family! Our patients will all be infected! We have no choice, and we cannot escape."


I wish I'd been horribly wrong on this one. :(

As an aside, no news on this on the front page of the BBC website or even on the front page of their World News page. They are running some articles but most of the media still hasn't grasped that 1-3 million deaths in one country in one winter is absolutely on the cards.
 

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Will be doing an antigen tomorrow. Quite nervous, have been out and about and really don't want to miss this Christmas.
 

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Yeh caught a cold this week, but tested twice and both came back negative. Symptoms were also not like when I caught it back in June, which really was like a bad flu plus burning throat.
 

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