To be perfectly honest, I don't think any NH team will make it to the final. England have the best chance, but the game on the weekend against Ireland showed that they lack experience and controll in cruicial positions when they're up against it. There are very few leaders in the current England team, and even then they're not in hugely influential positions / aren't great players that can change a game when needed. Whilst I think they'll do well, they're likely to loose a crunch game at some point imo.
France can do it, we all know that. It'll all depend on how they play on the day. As always who knows?
Ireland are capable, but it'll all depend on their senior players putting a string of good performances together. Against England they all managed that, was that a one off or a sign of things to come? Again we'll have to wait and see.
Wales simply haven't shown enough controll at the breakdown, or flair in the backs to suggest that we'll get any further that the 1/4's, if we get out of the tough group we're in that is. If we change our tactics, and play anywhere neer our potential then we could do ok, but I can't see any way in hell we'd make it to the final.
Scotland and Italy will do well to get to the knock-out stages. If they do, that's as far as they'll go.
Argentina don't look a patch on the team they were in '07. I believe that almost every other country in the world have improved up front sinse then, meaning that advantage they once had in the set piece has now all but gone. They could still do quite well, but it'll probably be a dog fight between them and Scotland to progres from the group.
Then we get to the big three. Austrailia have talent galore in the backline, but will always struggle against teams that manage to shut them down and dominate them up front. I feel that they're likely to loose at some point during the knock-out stages because of this.
South Afrika are a little bit of an unknown quantity this time around. They have the players to be up there with the best, but have struggled recently to show that. WC rugby suits them where they can shut a game down and dog out a win when necessary.
New Zealand are the clear favourites imo. They're not unbeatable though, but it'll probably take one of SA, Aus, France or possibly England to beat them. If McCaw and Carter remain fit for the entire tournament I think they'll finally break their hoodoo and win the whole thing. They could be vulnerable if one of those two misses a cruicial game.
Overall then. It looks like it may be quite an open tournament, but it'll be the usual suspects challenging when we get to the business end. NZ to win, but that's not exactly different from every WC!
