Assuming Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Chris Robshaw, one of Tom Croft/Tom Wood, Ben Youngs, Owen Farrell and Manu Tuilagi are Lions tourists.
1 Mako Vunipola
2 Tom Youngs/Dylan Hartley
3 Dave Wilson
4 Joe Launchbury
5 Dave Attwood
6 Tom Wood/Tom Croft
8 Ben Morgan/Billy Vunipola
7 Will Fraser
9 Danny Care
10 Freddie Burns
12 Billy Twelvetrees
13 Jonathan Joseph
11 Jonny May
15 Mike Brown
14 Christian Wade
16 Alex Corbisiero/Joe Marler
17 Rob Webber/Dylan Hartley
18 Henry Thomas
19 Ed Slater
20 Matt Kvesic
21 Joe Simpson
22 Toby Flood
23 Elliot Daly
Although I see Corbisiero as the long-term starting option and Mako V as an impact player, I think he deserves the chance to start. Corbisiero will be edging back from injury so I wouldn't throw him in straight away, he travels assuming he's fit, otherwise take Marler. Wilson is a good player and should be given a start at 3 to show really what he can do, and hopefully show he can be legitimate competition for Cole which he badly needs.
Youngs will probably tour with the Lions but I don't think he's certain. If he does, start Hartley. However, if he doesn't, I'd take Webber over Hartley for the bench spot and give him an opportunity, Hartley is a 'safe' type of option but Youngs is legitimately a better player than him now anyway and has some experience so Hartley isn't really needed for the insurance anymore.
I think Launchbury should tour with the Lions as his ball-skills, youthful energy and athleticism could come in handy and be a nice compliment to the more bruising, regimented forwards likely to tour. However I think it'll be too early for him, so he starts here. Parling will probably tour and for me, needs sifting out of the line-up anyway. As good as he's played, you can't just pick your best 15 and expect to get away with it. The front 5 is really lacking in in the tight come scrum-time and a bigger, tighthead lock like Attwood - also a line-out general, in excellent form and putting himself about all over the pitch - is what I think is needed or should at the very least be looked at closely. Slater deserves his shot based on his form, Lawes shouldn't immediately be in the squad and hasn't lived up to his billing, so he takes the bench spot.
Wood starts over Croft if he doesn't tour with the Lions as we need a more natural, grafting blindside opposite a youthful 7 IMO. I haven't put Croft then on the bench as I think one of these two will definitely tour, just not sure which. If Wood tours I would start Croft however, give him the chance to play himself back in to the 6 shirt, offers experience and prevents Haskell playing and giving away a kabillion penalties. Alongside him I've gone for Will Fraser, purely becasue he looks the most ready and I'd like to see what he can bring to the table. Might not have the most potential on the floor, but if we play a quick, decisive up-tempo game like Quins he could be the best link-man at 7. But yeah, looks the most ready, deserves his shot based on form too as he rarely has a bad game it seems. Kvesic has more natural openside potential on the floor, but I don't think he's truly ready yet for a start. Needs to establish himself as a proper 7 at Gloucester first. I see him as a potential England future 7 more than Fraser, but I'm wary about taking too many gambles at once.
Morgan at 8 is a no-brainer if fit. We suffered from a not having a big, ball-carrying 8 when he was injured in the Six Nations but I've still gone for no back-up on the bench as the spot is needed elsewhere. Billy V starts in Morgan is too unfit to tour and needs more time.
Don't think both England half-backs will tour and Youngs is the one with more experience, probably the expected starter for England when both him and Care are on form and his form has been class the last few weeks. I think he tours and Care stays behind, so he starts. Simpson on the bench, I'd like to see him get some time as he could legitimately push these two for the starting booth.
Burns at 10, I think he needs a start to prove he can perform throughout a whole game rather than as an impact player and we get to have a good look at his defence and tempermant over the course of a whole game and in an early dogfight against a tough side. Flood on the bench for a 'secure' option.
Twelvetrees at inside-centre. He's not in great form but looks the most legit 12 option for the future. Good distributor, kicking game, carries the ball well and has the size to be a defensive rock if he keeps developing that part of his game. Needs to perform though having finally been given his chance proper. Anthony Allen is unlucky to miss out here. Tempted to put him on the bench with 36 covering fly-half but I'm not comfortable with that.
Joseph at 13. Most experienced, safe option at 13, gives us a chance to look at him properly and see whether Tuilagi has legit comp. More ready than the likes of Tomkins, Eastmond or Trinder.
May and Wade starting on the wings, finally getting there shots! Both are in excellent form and have been all season and for a while, it's about time they were allowed to show what they could do. Brown gets his opportunity at FB too in his natural position. Daly on the bench, would like to take a look at him at FB primarily but also in the centres, probably at 13, maybe even a shot on the wing if either May or Wade don't perform.
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What I THINK the team will look like, though, is more like this:
1 Mako Vunipola
2 Tom Youngs (or Hartley, if Youngs tours)
3 Henry Thomas
4 Joe Launchbury
5 Ed Slater
6 Tom Croft (or Wood, if Croft tours)
8 Ben Morgan
7 Will Fraser
9 Danny Care
10 Freddie Burns
12 Billy Twelvetrees
13 Jonathan Joseph
11 David Strettle
15 Alex Goode
14 Christian Wade
16 Joe Marler
17 Dylan Hartley/Tom Lindsay (like the look of him, but not ready).
18 Dave Wilson
19 Courtney Lawes
20 James Haskell
21 Joe Simpson
22 Toby Flood
23 Mike Brown
