England's kicking options

[Boring Ian]

How would everyone rank England's best goal kickers? Forget all other attributes and feel free to mention those who aren't in and around the squad.

Interested to see how low Ford ranks...

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Danny Cipriani has the best goal kicking stats for any kicker with 10+ attempts in Europe (as in the Champions/Challenge cup) this season. Only missed 1.

 

[Boring Ian]

Nice stat but would you genuinely rate him top? Top 3 even?

 

[Peat]

http://rugby.statbunker.com/competitions/KickingStrikeRate?comp_id=469 - AP

http://rugby.statbunker.com/competitions/KickingStrikeRate?comp_id=472 - Europe

Those stats says Olyy is wrong... just. Russell slightly better than Cipriani. But very impressive.

Combine the two though, and it says Ford is about the best English goalkicker on form. Only Steenson would be better. So lulz at the last line of the OP.

 

[Boring Ian]

Problem is the stats are skewed a bit by what kickers will and won't attempt...

Fair enough though wouldn't expect Ford to feature highly at all. Are we saying he is a first rate goal kicker???

 

[Peat]

Depends what you meant by first rate, I suppose; he's no Halfpenny, but there no EQP is (except maybe Steenson...). I don't think he ever will be Halfpenny good, but he has been kicking at a very good standard this season.

The best sustained piece of goalkicking I've seen from an English kicker was Tom Homer back when he was U20. Kick everything from everywhere. Shame it's not taken off in the same way at pro level.

 

[goodNumber10]

http://www.goalkickers.co.za/

tells you everything you need to know @Boring Ian and also takes into account the difficulty of kicks attempted etc...

FYI Ford is 4th.

 

[Josht36]

http://www.goalkickers.co.za/

tells you everything you need to know @Boring Ian and also takes into account the difficulty of kicks attempted etc...

FYI Ford is 4th.

Has Devoto and 36 bottom. Sounds like a pretty accurate system to me.

 

[goodNumber10]

Has Devoto and 36 bottom. Sounds like a pretty accurate system to me.

lol!

 

[RedruthRFC]

Problem is the stats are skewed a bit by what kickers will and won't attempt...

Fair enough though wouldn't expect Ford to feature highly at all. Are we saying he is a first rate goal kicker???

Fair point about stats, but I'm not aware of any stat that factors in the difficulty of the distance, angle, wind and surface, so it's the best measure I can think of.

Talking of the surface, it's interesting to note that not only is Farrell's strike rate marginally worse than Ford's, roughly half of those kicks have been taken on a consistent, firm artificial surface.

What do you mean by first rate? The sample size on the European kicks is a bit suspect, but comparing the two lists, it suggests that the current crop of AP kickers is pretty so so compares to other European sides. Therefore, in current AP terms, Ford is indeed first class. In tier one international terms, I'd imagine he stacks up pretty poorly against his peers, but still pretty well against other contenders for the England ten shirt, so in the absence of a kicker in another position, England are passing up little or no edge using him as a front line kicker.

With all the above in mind, there's an argument to say that Spade is England's best legitimate option given that he only takes difficult kicks and managed a decent strike rate at them.

 

[goodNumber10]

Fair point about stats, but I'm not aware of any stat that factors in the difficulty of the distance, angle, wind and surface, so it's the best measure I can think of.

The link i just posted factors all those things in mate.

 

[RedruthRFC]

The link i just posted factors all those things in mate.

Thanks, I'll take a look. I was still typing when you posted that (yay phone browsing).

 

[Every Time Ref]

I think something you have to take into account is the "clustering" of missed kicks. Ford has kicked very well this season, but in the past he has had some justified flack for his tendency to have a bad day where it all just falls apart and he seems to miss everything. He's improved his kicking hugely, and I'm far more confident in him than I used to be, so this isn't directed at him per se, but just using him as an example of a factor which should be taken into account.

I would argue that is a worse tendency to have in a goalkicker than missing the same percentages at a consistent rate - because you can't see it coming and allow for it. If you have a dependable idea of what your kicker can and can't get, then your game plan can be built around it, whereas a kicker who is prone to the occasional meltdown is a whole other headache. The constant threat that it might just happen today but you don't know is a coaches nightmare, you have to always worry about having another kicker handy just in case; missing kicks can destroy a player's confidence and stop him playing well in other areas of the game; or you might need to replace a great playmaker with a better kicker who doesn't offer the same attacking threat ... it's a big, far-reaching problem that goes beyond how many points you score off the tee. I'd liken it to something like Hartley's discipline, the fear at the back of my mind going in to every tournament or autumn series that he is liable to get a yellow card at some point and it just might cost us the game is a big black mark against him despite all his strengths and suitability to England's game plan.

- - - Updated - - -

http://www.goalkickers.co.za/

tells you everything you need to know @Boring Ian and also takes into account the difficulty of kicks attempted etc...

FYI Ford is 4th.

Interesting - do you know anything about how the difficulty is calculated? I couldn't find anything on the website explaining it, it's an idea with a lot of potential but would be impossible to devise a totally foolproof system - not saying it can't work but would be very keen to see exactly how they do it.

 

[goodNumber10]

Interesting - do you know anything about how the difficulty is calculated? I couldn't find anything on the website explaining it, it's an idea with a lot of potential but would be impossible to devise a totally foolproof system - not saying it can't work but would be very keen to see exactly how they do it.

http://www.gilbertrugbyblog.com/international-season-kicking-statistics/

It's been going for a few years so i think it's about as close to perfection as it will ever get...

 

[HenryChinaski]

The Ireland game will be such a huge test of our half-backs' kicking.
I'm fully confident that Brown can and will kick well from full-back.
I'm less confident that Youngs can keep up the level of accuracy with his kicking that will be needed to get a result against ireland.

 

[Every Time Ref]

http://www.gilbertrugbyblog.com/international-season-kicking-statistics/

It's been going for a few years so i think it's about as close to perfection as it will ever get...

Cheers, I'll have a look at that.

The Ireland game will be such a huge test of our half-backs' kicking.
I'm fully confident that Brown can and will kick well from full-back.
I'm less confident that Youngs can keep up the level of accuracy with his kicking that will be needed to get a result against Ireland.

Agree with you, if Ford and Brown both kick well (not by any stretch unlikely) then maybe we can shield him to some degree, but it is far from ideal. Especially clearing form the 22, you have to be able to trust your nine to do that, especially against Ireland's lineout.

 

[goodNumber10]

Cheers, I'll have a look at that.



Agree with you, if Ford and Brown both kick well (not by any stretch unlikely) then maybe we can shield him to some degree, but it is far from ideal. Especially clearing form the 22, you have to be able to trust your nine to do that, especially against Ireland's lineout.

Young's is a better distance kicker and that's generally how we used him against Wales - Ford tends to be the tactical air kicker not sure we'll be aiming to go to the air against Ireland even with Brown, May and Watson there ad their back three are pretty solid all things considered.

 

[Every Time Ref]

I'd be interested to see if they test Watson - he's looked a little shaky in the past, but far far better recently

 

[Peat]

I am far more concerned about our kick chase than I am any of our kickers.

 

[RedruthRFC]

Interesting - do you know anything about how the difficulty is calculated? I couldn't find anything on the website explaining it, it's an idea with a lot of potential but would be impossible to devise a totally foolproof system - not saying it can't work but would be very keen to see exactly how they do it.

Indeed, I mentioned wind and surface as important factors in assessing the difficulty of kicks last night and this system doesn't consider them, but how would you factor them qualitatively? If the paper was written in England, maybe more consideration would have been given to accounting for them, but they're much less of a factor in South Africa.

Anyway, excellent stats, thanks @goodNumber10. I'm amazed that the data exists in order to analyse and almost as amazed that anyone has performed the analysis.