Fear of war still in mind

[alexrugby]

So you remember what a summer Georgia had one year ago

Now as we thought the threats were flown away the new perspectives of another military actions came out from deep

First the Kremlin ideologist, neo-Nazism philosopher, the generator of NEW RUSSIAN EMPIRE idea Aleksander Dugin calls for military occupation of Georgia, and the probability that his words will come truth is high as he is the personal ideologist of Vladimir Putin another neo-Russian imperialits

And next Denis Corboy the ex-ambassador and also the director of the Caucasus Policy Institute of the London King's College
speaks about the high probability of Re Invasion of Georgia from Russian militaries

Denis Corboy Interview


Occupied territories Abkhazia and South Ossetia are concentrated and heavily crowded by the Russian military forces

BMP, Tanks T 72, T 90 and military helicopters are concentrated on these territories including big number of live force

So it comes that Georgia is still under huge risk of reoccupation by the "soviet army"

 

[Prestwick]

Don't worry Lekso! Germany has your back I...er..wait..maybe not.

France! The country of Liberty, brotherhood and whatnot! They'll stick up for you...oh..wait...probably not.

The European Union! Of course! 27 nations all dedicated to democracy, free will and what not! Surely they'd come together to defend Georgia against Russia I...wait...no, sorry.

Sorry Lekso, if Russia invades, you're screwed

If I could quote Lord Owen who led the European Union's last great diplomatic triumph* during the Bosnian war:

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div>

Don't think that we are coming to help you or to save you...because we're not.[/b]

Possibly the only time any representative of the European Union has ever spoken the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth live on camera. And that was when Europe actually still had politicians who weren't related to vegetables or inanimate objects for intelligence, charisma or passion.


(* when I say "triumph" I mean "complete and utter f*cking fiasco")

 

[alexrugby]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Prestwick @ Jun 9 2009, 07:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

Don't worry Lekso! Germany has your back I...er..wait..maybe not.

France! The country of Liberty, brotherhood and whatnot! They'll stick up for you...oh..wait...probably not.

The European Union! Of course! 27 nations all dedicated to democracy, free will and what not! Surely they'd come together to defend Georgia against Russia I...wait...no, sorry.

Sorry Lekso, if Russia invades, you're screwed

If I could quote Lord Owen who led the European Union's last great diplomatic triumph* during the Bosnian war:

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE

Don't think that we are coming to help you or to save you...because we're not.[/b]

Possibly the only time any representative of the European Union has ever spoken the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth live on camera. And that was when Europe actually still had politicians who weren't related to vegetables or inanimate objects for intelligence, charisma or passion.


(* when I say "triumph" I mean "complete and utter f*cking fiasco")
[/b][/quote]

OH yes!!!!!!!! You are right

before the French president was flying like a migrating bird from Paris to Moscow and back again several dozens of times Russia was bringing Tskhinvali (the city which they defended :bravo: :bravo: ) to earth

Actually the EU politically is no more than Castrated Intelligent

And mostly after this winter as Russia turned off the GAS supply, and almost frozen Europeans soon forgotten democracy and all the other bullshitting ideas and kissed Putin's ass

No more bullshit accepted, Russia is straight at it's aims, they need Caucasus and so will be, they will never stop

 

[Maccaweeny]

Georgia's a complicated scenario for any NATO member to safeguard. Russia both have the strategic and tactical advantage of armed forces a hairs-breadth from Tiblisi, and possess a casus belli over most former Soviet states through the means of granting Russian citizenship to those who wanted it while they still actually reside in states like Georgia, which combined with the constitutional grant of power to protect Russian citizens overseas gives any Russian politician with an axe to grind a seemingly valid reason to initiate hostilities.

I'd like to think things would change if Russian forces actually occupied Tbilisi; that the West wouldn't allow there to be a full annexation, but I doubt it. The only way I feel the situation could reach any stability is if NATO followed what the U.N did in East Timor, in establishing a multi-national peace-keeping force that isn't too large to threaten South-Ossetia but is capable enough to pose a real threat to a Russian offensive. In Timor an Aussie led force of just over 1000 AIF, light armoured troops and commandos was enough to illustrate that if a 20,000 strong Indonesian army-group attacked, it would face a technological superior outfit with the weight of the international community behind it, regardless of numbers. Russia would face the same problem with the added hurdle that it would be hard to claim Russian citizens in Georgia are in danger of regional violence if there is an established force keeping the peace.

At the moment though Georgian troops are still using Soviet era equipment and lack the political backing to pose any real threat.

 

[Prestwick]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (LeksoRugby @ Jun 9 2009, 05:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

OH yes!!!!!!!! You are right

before the French president was flying like a migrating bird from Paris to Moscow and back again several dozens of times Russia was bringing Tskhinvali (the city which they defended :bravo: :bravo: ) to earth

Actually the EU politically is no more than Castrated Intelligent

And mostly after this winter as Russia turned off the GAS supply, and almost frozen Europeans soon forgotten democracy and all the other bullshitting ideas and kissed Putin's ass

No more bullshit accepted, Russia is straight at it's aims, they need Caucasus and so will be, they will never stop[/b]

I'd be careful about bashing the European Union there, Lekso...Shtove might get angry :unsure:

 

[alexrugby]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Prestwick @ Jun 9 2009, 08:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (LeksoRugby @ Jun 9 2009, 05:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

OH yes!!!!!!!! You are right

before the French president was flying like a migrating bird from Paris to Moscow and back again several dozens of times Russia was bringing Tskhinvali (the city which they defended :bravo: :bravo: ) to earth

Actually the EU politically is no more than Castrated Intelligent

And mostly after this winter as Russia turned off the GAS supply, and almost frozen Europeans soon forgotten democracy and all the other bullshitting ideas and kissed Putin's ass

No more bullshit accepted, Russia is straight at it's aims, they need Caucasus and so will be, they will never stop[/b]

I'd be careful about bashing the European Union there, Lekso...Shtove might get angry :unsure:
[/b][/quote]

I know Shtove's mind about such things :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:

but Georgia had not many Russian citizens here in it's own territory until Russia occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia through the separatism and then gave these separatist people Russian citizenship

So in past August Russia was blaming Georgian side that as if we were killing Russian Citizens and bombed whole country

despite these arguments were nothing more than a fiction

what about NATO in Georgia

Drunk Russian soldiers on video Drunk Soldiers

even I do not believe that, because Russia will bring whole my country to earth and will not give Georgia an opportunity to enter NATO, and hence NATO to enter Caucasus

 

[shtove]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (LeksoRugby @ Jun 10 2009, 09:08 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Prestwick @ Jun 9 2009, 08:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (LeksoRugby @ Jun 9 2009, 05:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually the EU politically is no more than Castrated Intelligent[/b]

I'd be careful about bashing the European Union there, Lekso...Shtove might get angry :unsure:
[/b][/quote]

I know Shtove's mind about such things :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:
[/b][/quote]
Good to see Prestwick coming around to the idea of Europe finally arming itself against the Kremlin psychopaths and standing up for decent people.

Lekso, maybe this shows how it will go (can't embed - click on two year and draw the graph - **** it, my dramatic point spoiled!):

http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/company...any_charts.html

Vladimir pulled on his jackboots for a good stomping in summer '08, and just as he went out the front door the market kicked his balls off.

If oil keeps going up, maybe he'll repeat the exercise. But maybe the market will repeat its exercise too, until the Kremlin is shown to have no balls at all.

 

[Prestwick]

OH MY GOD! LEKSO! WHAT HAVE YOU DONE! HE'S FOUND US! SHTOVE HAS-

...oh.

Europe is coming around to face the Kremlin with a united front against energy politics...if you call stunning division and discord between an admittedly hysterical Eastern Europe and Germany, France and Italy a "united front" in which case, step right up! We've got a job for you working under Javier Solana!

If you look at blogs such as War is Boring or WiRED's Danger Room blog (probably two of the better fingers on the pulse these days IMO) then you'll notice that Russia has calmed down a bit since its heady Putin led days, partly to do with the fall in oil prices but also to do with stodge pidgeon Dmitry Medvedev slowly wrestling power away from Prime Minister Putin. It isn't exactly all that certain that Putin will make a move to resume duties as President as Medvedev would very much like to stay on. However, even if the oil price had stayed at $150 a barrel for the last 18 months, neither Putin nor Medvedev would want a direct confrontation with the West. They want a to reinstate Russian power, not a nuclear halocaust or tens of thousands of NATO troops interveining in Georgia.

Oil funding may have a difference on Russian policy but then again it may not. While Venezuela and Hugo Chavez are now falling on hard times with contracts to buy 100,000 Russian Assault rifles and submarines falling over due to not being able to pay, they have managed to buy helicopters and other equipment to back up the ceaseless bravado on Alo! Presidente!

The same would go for Russia. Even when bankrupt it can still cause a lot of damage, residents of Grozny can tell you that. And despite multiple bargain basement sales of Soviet era equipment, the system of a phased withdrawl of kit from frontline service to the reserves, then to Civil Defence and then left to rot as embedded pill boxes (as was the fate for thousands of T-34s and so on) is still in place.

Like North Korea, Russia can be defeated in a thoretical war that is extremely unlikely to happen but it will be a very very messy affair which would probably not include NATO or Europe. Can you see the prospect of pursuading Germany and France to back such a confrontation? Thought not.

EDIT: to be brutally honest though, right now? Our biggest concern is finding out what to do with a problem like Afghanistan/Pakistan and Kim Jong Il..

 

[Woldog]

1. There wouldn't be a war if Russia re-occupied Georgia, there would be the noise of tanks rolling in and that would be it, Georgia couldn't mount a defense against Russia if they had backing from the prestigious Russia haters anonymous club.

 

[alexrugby]

Kremlin and especially Putin are afraid of NATO's widening borders

As Putin came he regained the idea of reunion of USSR but received two words instead **** off

He even regained the USSR Anthem

So Russia now is aimed at one: REUNION and they will try to do that whatever it costs

what about the ergonomics, I think Russia rather handles it's own gas for political purposes than for profit

That's the problem of Russia, people dying of hunger are applauding for their hungry soldiers who "brought great victory" over Georgia and such a small countries

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Woldog @ Jun 10 2009, 04:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

1. There wouldn't be a war if Russia re-occupied Georgia, there would be the noise of tanks rolling in and that would be it, Georgia couldn't mount a defense against Russia if they had backing from the prestigious Russia haters anonymous club.[/b]

Agree bro

we can not stop Russian army, where one army unit contains two times more soldiers than whole Georgia does

we can just oppose them for bravery as we do, but who needs blood of these young boys? nobody

if Russia enters Tbilisi with tanks nothing devastating will happen, they will simply bring our new president, who possibly is Igor Giorgadze former KGB general and that's it

regain of Russian influence over Georgia that is the aim of Putin and as Pretwick says Pigeon MEDVEDEV :lol2tn: :lol2tn: :lol2tn: :lol2tn:

 

[Woldog]

You can always beat them at rugby.

 

[alexrugby]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Woldog @ Jun 10 2009, 05:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

You can always beat them at rugby.[/b]

:cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:

That's exactly and we do God damn it

among the 13 matches played in between, we won 11 among them and just one Russia

 

[feicarsinn]

Well ya can understand Russia not wanting to see NATO expanded, I mean it was set up pretty much with the intention of keeping them in their place. Not that I'm condoning Russia actions just saying those missiles in Poland aren't aimed at the middle east.

 

[alexrugby]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (feicarsinn @ Jun 10 2009, 08:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

Well ya can understand Russia not wanting to see NATO expanded, I mean it was set up pretty much with the intention of keeping them in their place. Not that I'm condoning Russia actions just saying those missiles in Poland aren't aimed at the middle east.[/b]

Sure, the missiles do have very wide range of aims <_< <_< <_< <_<

 

[shtove]

I love it when Russia gets told to f*** off.

 

[alexrugby]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (shtove @ Jun 26 2009, 01:52 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

I love it when Russia gets told to f*** off.[/b]

Sure they get F***ed off from time to time but still they own Europe with huge resources of Gas and Oil

Whereas USA just tries for itself and what we got? people are pressed

Former personal clerk of Putin organised press conference where he talked about the possible threats to Georgia from Russia

He appealed about the possible start of new military campaign in July

This conference took place yesterday in Moscow

 

[shtove]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (LeksoRugby @ Jun 26 2009, 09:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (shtove @ Jun 26 2009, 01:52 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I love it when Russia gets told to f*** off.[/b]

Sure they get F***ed off from time to time but still they own Europe with huge resources of Gas and Oil

Whereas USA just tries for itself and what we got? people are pressed

Former personal clerk of Putin organised press conference where he talked about the possible threats to Georgia from Russia

He appealed about the possible start of new military campaign in July

This conference took place yesterday in Moscow
[/b][/quote]
Got a link? Would be interested to read what they're saying. Sounds like they're bullshitting, but it is worrying. A bunch of crazies could set things off just to cover their own uselessness - like American bankers.

And on Europe it's a prisoner's dilemma - Russia has the resources, but the resources are only worth what Europe is willing to pay. Does alternative energy have a future? If it does, then Russia loses. If it doesn't ... <_<

 

[alexrugby]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (shtove @ Jun 26 2009, 03:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

Got a link? Would be interested to read what they're saying. Sounds like they're bullshitting, but it is worrying. A bunch of crazies could set things off just to cover their own uselessness - like American bankers.

And on Europe it's a prisoner's dilemma - Russia has the resources, but the resources are only worth what Europe is willing to pay. Does alternative energy have a future? If it does, then Russia loses. If it doesn't ... <_<[/b]

I got a link only in Georgian God damn it

I couldn't find any other through the internet

It is in Georgian on one of the local broadcasting channels www.rustavi2.com

Video link

Topic link in English

What is main is that when you think Russia bullshits you must be on call at the same time

because Russia can not be understood in logics

 

[shtove]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (LeksoRugby @ Jun 26 2009, 11:46 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (shtove @ Jun 26 2009, 03:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Got a link? Would be interested to read what they're saying. Sounds like they're bullshitting, but it is worrying. A bunch of crazies could set things off just to cover their own uselessness - like American bankers.

And on Europe it's a prisoner's dilemma - Russia has the resources, but the resources are only worth what Europe is willing to pay. Does alternative energy have a future? If it does, then Russia loses. If it doesn't ... <_<[/b]

I got a link only in Georgian God damn it

I couldn't find any other through the internet

It is in Georgian on one of the local broadcasting channels www.rustavi2.com

Video link

Topic link in English

What is main is that when you think Russia bullshits you must be on call at the same time

because Russia can not be understood in logics


[/b][/quote]
Evil:

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div>

According to the plan, internal political stability should be destructed in Georgia in order convince the whole world that no one except Russia needs the country. 'The main purpose is to collapse the country and create `military and political porridge` instead of it, where everything is destroyed`, Mr. Ilarionov says and presumes that the new aggression may start on July 6, 2009.[/b]

No word about the people or about democracy - for either country. All that matters is control by corporate interests, whether state or commercial.

Government of the people, by the people, for the people.

 

[alexrugby]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (shtove @ Jun 26 2009, 04:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

Evil:

No word about the people or about democracy - for either country. All that matters is control by corporate interests, whether state or commercial.

Government of the people, by the people, for the people.[/b]

yeah No word about people and human beings

every government worries about the money and commercial interests

And what is main, when these "clear minded" intellectuals get the governmental chairs, their mind also gets switched on the commercial mechanism too and the same continues