Fly Half/First Five-Eighth

[dasNdanger]

This is a position I've wanted to talk about for a while, but most threads seem to be focused on specific players or teams. I was hoping to get into a discussion about the position in general, covering all teams, both in terms of the position itself, and individual players and prospects for the upcoming RWC.

Some things I'd like to discuss, though anything on the topic is welcome!

1. Firstly, my main concern is with NZ's first five-eighth pool of talent. I don't have much confidence right now in their ability to produce a player who shows consistency in their strikes, especially with Carter showing a bit of fragility lately. Thoughts?

2. On the world scale, who are the best prospects for the position (provided they remain healthy) for - let's say - the top 10 international teams?

3. Do you feel that the difference between winning and losing a game hinges more on an accurate boot than on try-scoring - and does it really matter? (I know we've discussed ways of encouraging tries and discouraging the reliance on penalty kicks to advance the score - thoughts about that can be discussed here as well.)

4. Finally, why are there so many gingers wearing the #10 jersey this year?





das

 

[Feicarsinn]

*outhalf.

 

[Draggs]

Standoff.

 

[goodNumber10]

*outhalf.

Standoff.

Stand Off Half

**** How'd you like them apples?***

- - - Updated - - -

This is a position I've wanted to talk about for a while, but most threads seem to be focused on specific players or teams. I was hoping to get into a discussion about the position in general, covering all teams, both in terms of the position itself, and individual players and prospects for the upcoming RWC.

Some things I'd like to discuss, though anything on the topic is welcome!

1. Firstly, my main concern is with NZ's first five-eighth pool of talent. I don't have much confidence right now in their ability to produce a player who shows consistency in their strikes, especially with Carter showing a bit of fragility lately. Thoughts?

2. On the world scale, who are the best prospects for the position (provided they remain healthy) for - let's say - the top 10 international teams?

3. Do you feel that the difference between winning and losing a game hinges more on an accurate boot than on try-scoring - and does it really matter? (I know we've discussed ways of encouraging tries and discouraging the reliance on penalty kicks to advance the score - thoughts about that can be discussed here as well.)

4. Finally, why are there so many gingers wearing the #10 jersey this year?





das

Right then... lets get the most important question out fo the way. The first thing to know is my user name is not goodNumber10 as in "he's/i'm a good number 10", it's good Number 10 in a patronising "good boy, good boy" way.

Not sure there is much else to discuss but on the off chance what i would say is the role has changed immensley over the last two decades.... I think for along time you could get buy with a far less attacking threat at 10, but those days have started to change and decent 10 who can bring it to the line and fix a defence is increasingly valuable.

(very briefly and to provoke some discussion) Key components of the 10's game for me in order of importance:
Good Passer
Good Decision maker (tactics and attacking the line/sitting deep is part of that btw)
decent kick from hand
Solid tackler (doesn't have to be Wilkinson but can't be a turn style any more)

Goal kicking for me falls outside of the core duties, as literally anyone should be allowed to kick if they are the best kicker.

I think NZ have some quality players coming through/here. Cruden and Barritt are ahead fo Carter at the moment. Their tactical awarness is already on a par (thought Crudens the best at that), but Barritts attacking threat is probably the best int he world at the moment.

i'm a fan of Foley, and Cooper for Australia.

Best, most complete STAND OFF HALF for me at the moment is Sexton.

 

[ncurd]

J

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

GN10 covered everything quite well there. I'd add Handre Pollard to the group in behind Sexton, that lad is quite the baller.

This also got me thinking about the importance of a second 5/8th type player rather than an inside centre. All the 6nations sides are playing crash it up inside centres in the Jamie Roberts mould. In Toomua and SBW, and to some extent they young South African who's name escapes me, The SANZAR sides all have more creativity in the 12 shirt. I'm of the opinion that that gives them a huge advantage in a tight game solely for the reason that they have an extra creative player for the opposition to worry about. It's something that has me worried that despite the fact Ireland and England have all but caught SA and Aus and have made serious ground up on NZ that the World Cup will almost certainly remain South of the equator which would be disappointing as Ireland and England are as good as these nations in many aspects and better in a few, halfbacks for Ireland and front five for England.

 

[dasNdanger]

Forget scrums, perhaps the IRB/WR needs to enforce a standard name for the 10 position worldwide.

Right then... lets get the most important question out fo the way. The first thing to know is my user name is not goodNumber10 as in "he's/i'm a good number 10", it's good Number 10 in a patronising "good boy, good boy" way.

*gives good Number 10 a cookie...it's gluten-free, though*

Not sure there is much else to discuss but on the off chance what i would say is the role has changed immensley over the last two decades.... I think for along time you could get buy with a far less attacking threat at 10, but those days have started to change and decent 10 who can bring it to the line and fix a defence is increasingly valuable.

(very briefly and to provoke some discussion) Key components of the 10's game for me in order of importance:
Good Passer
Good Decision maker (tactics and attacking the line/sitting deep is part of that btw)
decent kick from hand
Solid tackler (doesn't have to be Wilkinson but can't be a turn style any more)

Goal kicking for me falls outside of the core duties, as literally anyone should be allowed to kick if they are the best kicker.

I've always considered the 10 as one of the - if not THE - most important decision makers on the team. I think he also must be the most well-rounded of the backs. However, since his boot is often the difference between a win and a loss, I'd have to rate goal-kicking as his primary duty, since - as you say - "literally anyone should be allowed to kick if they are the best kicker" - the best kicker most likely will be the number 10.

I think NZ have some quality players coming through/here. Cruden and Barritt are ahead fo Carter at the moment. Their tactical awarness is already on a par (thought Crudens the best at that), but Barritts attacking threat is probably the best int he world at the moment.

i'm a fan of Foley, and Cooper for Australia.

Best, most complete STAND OFF HALF for me at the moment is Sexton.

I wasn't very impressed with Cruden last year. Perhaps this year is treating him more favorably. I've always liked Slade, but I don't think he rates as well as the others. Still, I'm not convinced that NZ has the boot that will win them the RWC in a try-less game. That means they'd have to score tries, and that means beating strong defenses, and that means a game could boil down to which team has the best fly/five/standoff - whateverthehell you wanna call him.

So, if the RWC was played today and came down to the best 10 in the world, which team would win? Ireland?

GN10 covered everything quite well there. I'd add Handre Pollard to the group in behind Sexton, that lad is quite the baller.

This also got me thinking about the importance of a second 5/8th type player rather than an inside centre. All the 6nations sides are playing crash it up inside centres in the Jamie Roberts mould. In Toomua and SBW, and to some extent they young South African who's name escapes me, The SANZAR sides all have more creativity in the 12 shirt. I'm of the opinion that that gives them a huge advantage in a tight game solely for the reason that they have an extra creative player for the opposition to worry about. It's something that has me worried that despite the fact Ireland and England have all but caught SA and Aus and have made serious ground up on NZ that the World Cup will almost certainly remain South of the equator which would be disappointing as Ireland and England are as good as these nations in many aspects and better in a few, halfbacks for Ireland and front five for England.

I must admit to fairly ignoring positions 11-14 - to me they all just meld together into one. I suppose I should take better note of who's who and what they're doing out there. That said, I'm not convinced that the WC will remain south. Much can happen between injuries and strategy and new talent. I think the most important thing to ensuring a WC win is that, despite all of the good a team may have, it has to have excellent unity, as if the team is sharing the same mind. I think that's what makes the ABs so successful - they are extremely cohesive on the pitch, even when under extreme pressure. Sure, they've been known to choke in a pivotal game, but they wouldn't be the most successful sports team in human history if choking was a common part of their play.


das

 

[dasNdanger]

Thanks to @donmcdazzle for posting this link in the Super Rugby forum:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/...5r-rating-super-rugbys-playmakers--week-three


Very interesting, and just the thing I was looking for - looking to discuss. By this measure Cruden is NZ's golden boy atm.

I read up a little on this new system here: http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/...ve-Hansen-solve-the-All-Black-No-10-conundrum

Now I'm wondering if other countries/teams will try something like this, and maybe not just for one position, but for all.

Any thoughts on it?



das

 

[nightmarehitter]

With Cruden, Slade very solid and Beauden Barrett and Damien Mckenzie joining SA Handre Pollard as the best no10 prospects in world rugby I think NZ are well stocked on no10's

Even guys like sopoaga at the highlanders and West at the blues would play international rugby if they choose to turn their attention to other nations

Barrett and McKenzie could easily hold the no 10 jersey between then for the next 10 -12 years

 

[nickdnz]

1. Firstly, my main concern is with NZ's first five-eighth pool of talent. I don't have much confidence right now in their ability to produce a player who shows consistency in their strikes, especially with Carter showing a bit of fragility lately. Thoughts?

2. On the world scale, who are the best prospects for the position (provided they remain healthy) for - let's say - the top 10 international teams?

3. Do you feel that the difference between winning and losing a game hinges more on an accurate boot than on try-scoring - and does it really matter? (I know we've discussed ways of encouraging tries and discouraging the reliance on penalty kicks to advance the score - thoughts about that can be discussed here as well.)

4. Finally, why are there so many gingers wearing the #10 jersey this year?


das

By strikes I take it you mean their goal kicking? It's not a huge strength in regards to Barrett and Cruden - but it's not hugely weak. Let's look at the kicking percentages in Super Rugby (I'll include last years as we only jhave three games to go off this season) of young NZ 1st 5/8ths kicking percentages.

Beuden Barrett: 2014: 72.7%
Aaron Cruden: 2014: 67.8%
Simon Hickey: 2014: 87.3%
Ihaia West: 2014: 72%
Tom Taylor: 2014: 71.4%
Colin Slade: 2014: 80.5%
Daniel Carter: 2014: 61.9%
Lima Sopoaga: 2014: 84.4%
Hayden Parker: 2014: 78.9%

These percentages of course can be pretty misleading. Carter for example only kicked in two or so games last season. Looking at this season, plenty of players are kicking well into the 80% mark, Ihaia West as an example. I generally don't believe it is a particularly worrying point. The reality is that Cruden and Barrett create a lot more points than other flyhalves through game management and their attacking abilities. Cruden was recovering from an injury for much of last season - so far this season his kicking is at 78%. Ultimately the kicking of our international players on the EOYT was very strange, but hardly something to be too concerned about. Anyone remember Johnny Wilkinson's kicking %'s during the 2011 RWC? I'm sure the players will have ironed out most of the problems in the off season and will have time to improve during this years Super Rugby.

2. Depends what you mean by prospects. Aaron Cruden (26 years old) I probably would consider one of the top three fly halves in the world, if not the best. Not sure if I'd call him a prospect. Beuden Barrett (23 years old) is also a fantastic 1st 5/8th, I think it would probably be fair to call him a prospect. George Ford (22 years old) and Owen Farrell (23 years old) are all established internationals, with one of the two (though England aren't sure yet which) being the incumbent. From New Zealand, the young fly halves that I am most excited about is Ihaia West (23) and Damian McKenzie (19). Both have fantastic running games - although the jury is still out how good their game management is (probably needs time to develop). Marty Banks (25) who has been picked up from the Highlanders, has been setting records in the ITM Cup with Tasman and arguably has the most complete game of any of the prospects. Otere Black (19) is in the Hurricanes wider development squad - but I'd have been very happy if he was given a fulltime contract. He was tearing it up for Manawatu and didn't look to have any obvious weaknesses to his game, as well as having some very silky skills. Marty McKenzie (22), the older brother of Damian, just won the ITM Cup championship with Taranaki, so he's still a promising prospect.

In South Africa Handre Pollard (20) is simply fantastic - I think possibly the most promising prospect since Daniel Carter. Really young, but he's physical, good strong running game and good game management. I have been ruling out Patrick Lambie (24) as a guy who hasn't lived up to his early hype, but I think his game management and execution has really improved, to the point I think he performed better than Pollard for the Sharks against the Blues. Johan Goosen (22) is also a great South African fly half, but he looked shaky coming after injury and now he's playing in the Top 14 for an absorbinant amount of delicious cheese, wine and women if gaston is to be believed - so he's probably going to be less on the radar for the Boks.

3. Nope, I don't believe that that all. Having an accurate goal kicker is important, but the All Blacks went undefeated on the 2014 EOYT with some very shaky goal kicking. What won games was being able to run a backline and some very good game management. There are of course going to be games where goal kicking is the deciding factor (2011 RWC final as an example), but in reality unless you have a kicker who is able to kick 75m penalties, teams need to be managed around the field and 7 points is quite a lot better than three. As an example I'm sure the All Blacks conceded as many penalties as any other team last year (some would say cynically close to their own 22), but they also scored more tries. The only times the All Blacks were beaten last year, was when South Africa employed a very good running game. Same when they lost to England in 2012.

4. Are there? Ihaia West and Paddy Jackson are the only two that really spring to mind as obviously ginger.

 

[dasNdanger]

Thanks, nick - great comments! (And on the 'prospects', I meant 'most likely players to fill the 10 spot' on the top ten international teams atm. Of course, I could just watch the 6N and see who's who for at least those 6 teams - but I like to hear who guys here favor for that position. And by top ten I would include those teams in the RC and 6N.)

That said, I appreciate your breakdown for question 2. My life is crazy busy and I have little time to analyze and study the many aspects of the game and players - heck, I hardly have enough time to take a shower in the morning! So I really appreciate it when someone can take a world of knowledge and break it down in simple, and quick to read, terms. All in one place. Like here.



das

 

[Wendigo7]

George North is a winger for Wales.

george ford is a fly half for England.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'm not picking anyone over 26 as I can't see them make it to the next RWC which would be my cut-off for pivots (anther name for flyhalf, Das) being 'prospects'.

1 Aaron Cruden
2 Nicholas Sanchez
3 Handre Pollard
4 Bernard Foley
5 Beauden Barrett
6 Pat Lambie
7 ... Actually I don't watch enough NH rugby to do this thoug I rate the young Jules Plisson from France quite highly.


I see Sexton and Trinh-Duc as players in their prime and whom should be on top of that list but you were asking for prospects and this is how I interpreted it. I havn't mentioned the other up-and-coming NZ 10's or Johan Goosen as I don't see them getting in ahead of those I mentioned above between now and Japan 2019.

 

[nickdnz]

George North is a winger for Wales.

george ford is a fly half for England.

You saw nothing..

 

[Feicarsinn]

I'm not picking anyone over 26 as I can't see them make it to the next RWC which would be my cut-off for pivots (anther name for flyhalf, Das) being 'prospects'.

1 Aaron Cruden
2 Nicholas Sanchez
3 Handre Pollard
4 Bernard Foley
5 Beauden Barrett
6 Pat Lambie
7 ... Actually I don't watch enough NH rugby to do this thoug I rate the young Jules Plisson from France quite highly.


I see Sexton and Trinh-Duc as players in their prime and whom should be on top of that list but you were asking for prospects and this is how I interpreted it. I havn't mentioned the other up-and-coming NZ 10's or Johan Goosen as I don't see them getting in ahead of those I mentioned above between now and Japan 2019.

I'd be surprised if Sexton isn't our 10 in 2019 at the age of 34. Hard to see anyone behind him reaching his level, even if he does decline. That said, he was a late bloomer so it's not impossible.