For the Springboks, how far do you realistically think they’ll go in the RWC?

Discussion in 'Rugby World Cup 2019' started by ThatLondonFella, Sep 9, 2019.

  1. ThatLondonFella

    ThatLondonFella Academy Player

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    So, I entered a discussion with a work colleague and I put forward who I think will win. Surprisingly, I’d love for the Springboks to win but few they’ll fall short. I’ve put either New Zealand or Ireland to lift the cup.

    I think of all the nations, we’ve certainly come a long way to be in the position we are (both in terms of momentum, number of options we have for different positions and fitness levels).

    I’m a little scared though by this pedestal that the Springboks have been put on (media, other fans etc), so I’m a little worried going into this cup by the pressure the boys will be under.

    What’s everyone else’s take on the Springbok chances? Anyone think we’ll do it? Anyone thing we’ll (as our cricket team is famous for) choke?

    Will be interesting to see what others think as around a year/year and a half we were is disarray.
     
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  3. Dave Davies

    Dave Davies Academy Player

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    I'm placing as big a wager as I can on them to win it all. Just have a feeling, and they have looked amazing lately... Doesn't feel like the Kiwi's year (3 in a row would be mind-boggling), and I really think SA can beat England or Ireland most days. I'm rotting for Scotland and the USA to do well, but realistically, it looks like the Boks to me.
     
  4. miccloarch

    miccloarch Academy Player

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    The media always blows everything out of proportion, and recent form in these warmup games shouldn't count as much as it apparently does with popular opinion. That said, the Boks do look impressive and are probably the team most likely to beat the All Blacks. All Blacks are still favourites though.
     
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  5. Old Hooker

    Old Hooker First XV

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    I’ve tipped you to win, so that’s the kiss of death.

    The Boks are about the only team who are on a real upward trajectory. That matters.

    You’ll have a big horrible pack and a couple of X factor players behind. BTW could we pls pinch one of your SHs?

    You’re not intimidated by the ABs.

    Why not?
     
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  6. SomeOke

    SomeOke First XV

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    There isn't really much to say on this topic.

    Do we have a shot? Of course we do, but I think a case can be made for Eng/Ireland/Wales and NZ as well. Ultimately no-one can know, which is hopefully what's going to make this WC exciting.

    Personally I think NZ are favourites, but they are probably the least favoured they have been coming into a world cup in a long while (probably 2003 ).

    I will say whoever wins the SA vs NZ pool game has their odds shoot up massively, like close to 50%, just because beating Ireland/England/(NZ/SA) on the trot is a very tough ask (trigger warning Welsh fans).
     
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    Last edited: Sep 9, 2019
  7. TheOvalBall

    TheOvalBall First XV

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    Semi-final
     
  8. Larksea

    Larksea First XV

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    NZ, SA, ENG, IRE & the welsh are the teams with realistic shots at winning, I'd say NZ strongest shot being 40-50%
    WC's don't determine the best team, the one off games we get in knockouts are often determined by a refs interpretation here and there, its a sandbox. Every WC has games that could have gone either way if not for the bounce of the ball or a refs call.
    Boks can be a bit unpredictable I think the chances of many teams is going to rest on how they adapt their game to suit the conditions and surfaces in Japan. I think that more than anything else is going to determine the winner.
     
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  9. BPM

    BPM First XV

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    SA have an excellent shout IMO.

    Regardless of the outcome of the opening game with NZ, I would back them to come through a QF against Ireland, Scotland or Japan. The SF are harder to call, but I can’t see too many teams that can compete with SA’s power and strength in depth.
     
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  10. RedruthRFC

    RedruthRFC First XV

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    If the pool B winner ends up facing Ireland, they shouldn't be too tough to beat as their presence in that half of the draw means that that they will have lost to either Japan or Scotland. Assuming the pool favourites and second favourites finish where they're meant to in the other pools and quarter finals, I can't see it altering the odds too much, if anything, they'll be shorter given that Scotland won't be given a hope in the quarter final.
     
  11. Kapa O Pango

    Kapa O Pango Academy Player

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    I remember Rassie talking about building on this group onto the next RWC in 2023.

    This Boks 31 group looks very promising and lots of young talent coming in.

    Possibly semi final, final or even winning the whole thing.
     
  12. TRF_stormer2010

    TRF_stormer2010 Super Moderator

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    I have got my heart set on a Bok title. I don't think we are favorites by any means and even a QF exit is as likely as getting to the final but that said I do believe there are enough positive indicators for us to go into this RWC with at least as much confidence as any other of the 'current top 5' teams.

    Only a month ago I thought that this RWC is a year early for us but I have changed my mind in the meantime. Yes, the squad is younger and less experienced than what has been the norm for the winner but its not far off and I believe our strengths are what you need to go far in a knock out tournament. We have a solid defense. We maybe don't have the 5 players that are considered top in their position in the world but I believe we make up for it in depth in quality, no real weaknesses and though none of our players are a shoe in for a world XV all of our players are not far off the pace. We have a bench that is arguably better or at least more impactful than our starters (don't know if any of the other big 5 can claim the same) and I can't seem to get that "every 12 years" out of my head: 1987 and 1991 we weren't there, 1995 we took it. 1999 and 2003 we dropped the ball but found it again 2007. 2011 and 2015 weren't bad but we fell short. 2019..
     
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  13. SomeOke

    SomeOke First XV

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    Also a good thing to note is that the vast majority of our team will be around for 2024. Other than Beast/Vermulen/Willie le Roux most of our squad is more than young enough, so we can always look at this world cup as a stepping stone.
     
  14. Umaga's Witness

    Umaga's Witness Bench Player

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    I would think the odds on the all blacks winning in 2003 were higher than their odds this time around, simply because the odds in 2003 of the 4th, 5th, and 6th most likely would have been relatively small.
     
  15. ThatLondonFella

    ThatLondonFella Academy Player

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    I can’t get that out of my head either. 1995, 2007, 2019. It just seems like all the pieces are clicking together in place for us ahead of this tournament. Great to see the love the Bokke are getting in Japan too.
     
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  16. SomeOke

    SomeOke First XV

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    Yeah I almost said you have the worst odds of all time (still the highest odds of any country), but I was 13 in 2003 and far more rugby ignorant.

    Edit: the 1995, 2007, 2019 every 12 years narrative doesn't really speak to me. Statistically it means nothing, just a random coincidence.
     
  17. TRF_heineken

    TRF_heineken RIP #J9

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    I'm backing the Bokke to win this tournament. For the first time in a very long time, the heart, hope and belief is back in the team. We are a united front, and the love the players are showing their coaches is evident of that.

    I think of all the teams going into this world cup, we are probably the best prepared. We've spent at least 2/3 weeks more in Japan than any other team. Which means by now, the guys will be acclimatised to the conditions in Japan. We are also the only team other than Japan to have played in Japan.

    We have depth in every position, and we have guys that's still at home, who can easily be called up and take a place in the team, and knows the game plan as they all have been part of the setup and has played at least one or 2 games for the bokke this year alone.

    We have experience. We have guys like Vermeulen, Etzebeth, PSDT, Pollard, Le Roux and Beast that has been at a World Cup before and knows what the pressure is going to be like for the big games. But more importantly, we have a guy like Frans Steyn who has won a World Cup before, and his influence will be massive.

    We have a good defensive structure. We are solid at scrum time. Solid at Lineouts. We have thinking scrumhalves and flyhalves. We can score points from inside our own half. We have wingers scoring tries freely. We have poachers.

    We have it all to win this thing. We can do this! it's just a matter of performance every game.
     
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  18. Gena_ZA

    Gena_ZA First XV

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    I don't expect Ireland will go beyond the quarter finals, they either face the All Blacks or the Springboks, in my opinion both are better.
    That leaves us with England, Wales, All Blacks and Boks.
    Wales should do their best to avoid England in the quarters or semi's as I am of the opinion that on the World Cup stage England will be better
    All Blacks to beat England in the semi' and Boks to face them in the finals
    France and the Wallabies can have a cracker in any game to change things in total and end up in the semi's

    The final - All Blacks are favorites, Boks are the dark horses

    Have some predictions fun here: https://www.superbru.com/worldcup_predictor/knockout_calculator.php
     
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  19. profitius

    profitius First XV

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    I think we (Ireland) are nicely positioned, waiting in the long grass for the Boks.


    I think the kiwis will click into gear in that first game. It took them being humiliated by Australia to wake them up.
    I'd much rather face the Boks than the kiwis. Schmidt has been planning for both teams for a long time and no doubt will have something up his sleeve.
     
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  20. donmcdazzle

    donmcdazzle First XV

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    The Boks are a massive threat, and a decent chance to win it. Genuine question - what is it about this team that you Boks fans prefer over the 2015 vintage? That team pushed the awesome 2015 ABs right to the edge in the semi final
     
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  21. TRF_stormer2010

    TRF_stormer2010 Super Moderator

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    By then maybe (adding age by 2023/current caps), the way I see ATM:
    Loosehead: S Kitshoff 31/40, O Nche 28/0, L Gqoboka 33/0
    Tighthead: W Louw 29/13, T Du Toit 28/10, F Malherbe 32/32 (T Nyakane 34/41 and V Koch too old?)
    Hookers: M Marx 29/27, J Dweba 27/30, (not sure who our hookers might be. A Van der Merwe 32/3?)
    Locks: E Etzebeth 31/79, R Snyman 28/16, L De Jager 30/40, F Mostert 32/32
    Loosies: S Kolisi 32/43, P Du Toit 31/50, M Coetzee 32/30, K Smith 27/4, JL Du Preez 28/13 (or M Van Staden 28/3)

    That'd be an extremely experienced pack of forwards at the right age. probably (hopefully?) we'll see one or two bolters but these are quality players.

    Scrummies: H Jantjies 27/4, F De Klerk 31/25
    Halves: H Pollard 29/42, D Willemse 25/5, C Bosch 26/2
    Centers: J Serfontein 30/35, J Kriel 29/45, L Am 29/9 (A Esterhuyzen 29/8, W Simelani 25/0)
    Outside Backs: S Nkosi 27/8, C Kolbe 29/10, W Gelant 28/7 (A Dyantyi 29/13, A Fassi 25/0, M Libbok?)

    Essentially, take this Bok squad, take away the over 28s and add a few up-and-commers. Add 4 years' worth of caps(?) and time together to each name.

    Quite a number of players weren't on form. And there wasn't the trajectory and expectation (IE belief) we have this time round. At least that is my general .. feeling.

    No excitement of youth. I feel you want to go in with 1 or 2 no-name players with a bit of X-factor. To some degree because the other teams havn't figured them out yet and to some degree you want that exhuberance and not just 100% grizzled temperament.

    In particular at 9 we weren't on form. In SA we tend to have belief if we have belief in our 9. Fourie du Preez and Pienaar were great players but FdP in particular was playing carrying niggle and not having had gametime.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 10, 2019
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