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Have the All Blacks peaked mid-cycle?

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ExpatDadSG

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Hello All

The All Blacks had a reputation for peaking between world cups, this season they have not appeared as dominant. So I have written a post looking at the results for the All Blacks from the last three years and comparing it to the previous 2 world cup cycles.

<header class="entry-header"> [h=1]Have the All Blacks peaked mid-cycle?[/h] Posted on <time class="entry-date" datetime="2014-11-28T06:00:50+00:00">28 November 2014</time>
</header> The All Blacks remain the #1 ranked nation in the world, but have they peeked too soon in the World Cup cycle? They clearly have not been as dominant this year so let's have a look at their record since the last world cup and compare it to previous cycles.
The All Blacks have had this reputation for peaking between world cups and for choking in the main event. A lot of this talk was put to bed in 2011 when New Zealand won their second World Cup on home soil.
Even so one swallow doesn't make a summer or a leopard doesn't change its spots, cultures are not always changed just because one time something different happens. Especially if you look at the World Cup final where New Zealand only won by 1 point, it was hardly a dominating performance.
Hansen has obviously put a positive spin on things but has said that New Zealand have been winning or drawing "ugly". So let's have a look at the last 3 seasons since the world cup, they also are Hansen's entire reign as head coach:

From a pure results point of view obviously this year is not as good as 2013, but then as 2013 was a perfect year it's hard to stay at that level. But if you look at some of the other numbers, you could say that 2012 was the best year. Points for has come down slightly but it's the points against that has changed more dramatically. At the end of the day it's only 3 more points a game or a single penalty.
So whilst it feels like teams have been getting closer and pushing the All Blacks harder, the points differential is 14 per game just slightly down on 15 last year. The stats are amazingly consistent and whilst the All Blacks defence is perhaps not quite as strong, they are still over 2 converted tries a game better than their opponents.
So how does Hansen's tenure compare to Henry's?
Let's just have a quick look at the last 2 world cup cycles to see is there is anything to learn there:

Interestingly enough the first cycle (2004-2006) of Henry's leadership was also very consistent, only losing 1 or 2 games each season. The points difference did vary a bit more getting up to 24 points a game in 2005, marrying a jump in points for and a very low points against. But sitting at around 16-17 points in the other years which is very similar to now.
2007 numbers look great and yet it will be remembered as a disappointing year. The points and tries stats get greatly inflated by the opponents that the All Blacks played in the world cup. Normally the All Blacks will play 1 lower tier nation such as USA this year. In 2007 they played Canada, Portugal and Romania (the latter two at the world cup) making those numbers fairly useless for comparison. Still the All Blacks only lost 2 games, once to Australia and once to France, it just happens that the France game was a world cup quarter final.
So was there a dip in form? Not really they just lost two games rather than one.
So let's have a look at a winning cycle, this one actually looks worse. They lost 4 games in 2009, the only time they have lost more than 2 games! That was also the only year they dropped below 3 tries per game and the difference per game dropped below 10.
Also if you compare 2011 to 2007, both years they lost 2 games. Just in 2011 they didn't lose an important one i.e. a knockout game at a world cup. Their scoring numbers aren't as good in 2011 as 2007 but it will be remembered as a much better year.
So the three years running up to a world cup for the All Blacks are no indicator as to how they will do. Also the season stats for the world cup year are no indicator. This isn't a team that has any psychological issues with beating other teams, they have done it already. They already have put down markers against all the other teams. So there is nothing that they need to do in the years running up to a world cup in the same way England needed to before the 2003 world cup. At the end of the day all that matters for New Zealand are 3 knockout games. Win those and 4 years has been good, lose 1 and it's a failure.
Let's be clear even though the All Blacks have been wining ugly this year and having to out last opponents, they are still clearly the best team in the world. They will go into next year's world cup as outstanding favourites. But they have been beaten, if only twice in 42 games and so could lose one of those three important games. There is not really much we can take out of their performance over these last three seasons in predicting the next world cup except that they will again go in as favourites.
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Link: http://expatdadsg.com/2014/11/28/have-the-all-blacks-peeked-mid-cycle/

Cheers ExpatDadSG
 
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I really don't understand... If NZ beats a team people will always say, well they should have done beter. Even though they are the no1 team in the world, losing 1 game in a year, people are still saying, they should have done better, they have done better than any other team already, what else do they need to do?

Do you want the AB to win every game by 50points? How is that a competitive game? I have always said, the AB biggest advantage/asset to their game has always been their downfall! And that is/was their "depth". I said was because luckily someone there noticed this and fixed it.

This was evident in the 99 and 2003 RWC. The AB had so many talented players in a lot of positions and they had to be picked. This meant that during group phases these players where chopped and changed to give everyone playing time. Great, but it kills your teams momentum and continuity because at the next game a different player is next to you. A lot of combinations were tried during this group stage to see who fits in where and to try something like that at that stage is a huge risk.

Being favorites each time adds a lot of extra pressure, the AB are favorites at every world cup while other teams do not have this burden or their shoulders. If the AB win the world cup, everyone is like, oh well they are the best, its not a big thing, they should have done better, if they lose? "You suck, chokers".

Im not going to talk about the 2007 RWC and the AB vs wayne barnes... So lets move on... Before we do, if you want to talk about winning ugly, go look at SA performance during this RWC... RSA also basically had 1 team, they made changes vs arg and almost lost that game, jake white or should i say eddie jones made last minute changes to bring the 1st team subs on to save/defend the game. So they grind out a win in the final. These knockout tournaments are not won by "attack" its won by "defence". The AB "were" an attacking team while RSA and England are defensive/tactical teams...

During this time something at the AB camp changed and they began to look at this defense/rotation and chopping and changing and you could see this at the 2011 RWC. Only a few 2 or 3 players were change at each game of the group stages to allow for rest of injuries but the bigger team maintained its momentum.

The AB used to be "flashy/flair" these days they are more clinical and only do the basics BUT they have now what the 95 springbok team had, no1 fitness, no2 belief, no3 hunger, no 4 pride, no5 humble (debatable)

All ingredients of a great team! Going into the 2015 RWC i feel they can will this, they are away from home and have the burden/pressure of being favorites again but they can pull it off in the NH!

So... Where they chokers for 25years? Or where they giving someone else a chance? It seems like coming RWC are all Black...

P.s when is the next RWC in RSA (o_O) its been 20years now... Just asking...
 
for me it has mostly to do with how tight the new defenses are, especially the European ones (France, England, Ireland particularly) and South Africa in the south.
Defenses are tighter and more consistent and so it's harder for anyone to score tries over anyone, and so those black waves of All-Black attacking aren't as terrifying as they once were. There was a time where they could score on every single cavalry strike as they went up the pitch out wide.

For example, 2013 was their perfect year, and the 6N had some sort of record for fewest tries (and was one of the ugliest full tournaments ever...) and it's in that same vein the matches against NZ weren't leaky either - All Blacks had a tremendously hard time on all 3 their November tests (Paris, Twick and then Dublin), and France for all their crisis at the time coming off a wooden spoon in March still kept the All-Blacks to just 2 then 3 then 2 tries in their June tour of NZ.
Good teams have never been this hard to score against, as European nations it was imperative we took a monumental pounding every once in a while just some years ago...

So the AB may be less dominant, but I think they're just taking what teams are giving them. They still can put on a show and everyone on the team has tremendous skill and will look to create space at all times and be aggressive ball in hand, but there's a limit to what a team can do facing such defenses...
They still put 40 past a very competitive England and then 50 past Australia this year.
 
I don't think those stats really mean anything. That their performances this year are a bit down on last year, could be nothing more than other teams having worked out what they were doing and managing to counter it.

What I do expect Hansen et al to do is to work out a way to defeat this defensive tactic of having one player (usually a centre) rush out way ahead of his remaining defensive line to stop the ball getting to the outside channel. The AB's did manage to defeat it once against Wales when Conrad Smith turned his back on the rushing defender and scooped a flick pass behind his back to Savea on the wing. This action protected the ball from being easily intercepted. When Wales tried bringing that rushing player further infield, running at the 10, Barrett just kick-passed it to a 3-1 overlap on the NZ left wing, and Kaino scored from the Conrad Smith in-pass. When they tried it again a few minutes later, it was Slade who executed the kick-pass perfectly for Ben Smith to tap the ball inside for Barrett to score.

I expect that will be one of the work-ons for the summer. If attacks can put the opposition defence in two minds about what the 10 is going to do (chip-kick, pass, run, bomb, wipers or kick-pass) then they can discourage that midfielder from fully committing to rushing forwards, which may help to open the channel to the wings.
 
even if they have, their peak is so far ahead of everyone else that there is still a large enough bumper for them to ride out any loss of form and dominate world rugby for the next 12 months.
 
Pretty sure Hanson has got a lot in his bag of tricks, come RWC I expect AB to implement a few changes to the game plan an catch everyone out. Hanson THE top coach in world rugby, he's got a good poker face everyone thinks his teams peaked they'll be in for a shock come next year..(speculation only of course)
 
ENZED-88 said:
Pretty sure Hanson has got a lot in his bag of tricks, come RWC I expect AB to implement a few changes to the game plan an catch everyone out. Hanson THE top coach in world rugby, he's got a good poker face everyone thinks his teams peaked they'll be in for a shock come next year..(speculation only of course)
Click to expand...

Strongly agree with this.
 
Surely if we peaked in 2011, then again in 2013, we are due again to peak in 2015?

usually we get he 'peak in between world cups' thing when we smoke teams the year before and even year of the World Cup. In 2003 we put 50 on Aussie shortly before the World Cup. Any of 5 or so teams are in the frame to win. Injuries, refs, form, weather, so many things can derail a World Cup. Being awesome in between world cups doesn't mean bugger all when it comes to winning or losing one.
 
I think they peaked a year ago, truth be told. They seem to be struggling more lately to get those wins. A year ago they were near-invincible...but now there seems to be a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel for teams facing the men in black.


das
 
I think the ABs still have the young stars coming through who in a years time may be even stronger. I think they haven't really peaked at all and are still a league above everyone else.
 
ENZED-88 said:
Pretty sure Hanson has got a lot in his bag of tricks, come RWC I expect AB to implement a few changes to the game plan an catch everyone out. Hanson THE top coach in world rugby, he's got a good poker face everyone thinks his teams peaked they'll be in for a shock come next year..(speculation only of course)
Click to expand...

we are all hoping he has, the game plan has not changed much since Smith was introduced at 1/2 back, the forwards take it up off the ruck with a short pass to another forward, then again, then go wide... effective enough but predictable. teams have got use to playing against this, note the amount of turn overs both Aust and SA took off us at the tackle, they knew we would pass off the ruck, take the tackle and recycle so were waiting. Opposition team selections are being effected by the need to slow our ball down when we play this style, they need to be able to dominate the ruck and to a degree have been dominating us at the ruck especially since they know what we will do. In the past when we have "peaked" I believe what we did was play our best game plan to early, we were arrogant enough to think we would just dominate other teams. the All Blacks usually are leading the way as far as how the game should be played with other teams trying to find a style to defeat us... I believe this to be the case now, with most opposition quite close to coming up with a game plan to defeat our current game. I also believe that we have learnt from past WC's and Hanson will have a new game plan, suited for WC play, suited for the Nth Hem, and also effective against what the opposition are now offering and the players they are selecting, we will take advantage of the fact that we are leading and others are chasing, and instead of being run down at the WC we will run off ahead. cheers

dasNdanger said:
I think they peaked a year ago, truth be told. They seem to be struggling more lately to get those wins. A year ago they were near-invincible...but now there seems to be a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel for teams facing the men in black.
true, I agree, but what I think happened was Hanson and the crew realised they were on to a good thing and toned it down, saved some stuff for 2015, where as in the past we just put the foot down and destroyed teams but revealed all our hand. There are 4 games before the world cup for the AB's, this team is good enough to lose all 4, turn up with a game plan and win the thing... Hanson has already said he has 25 of the 31 picked, but the 6 places left will be taken by players all ready in the group who know the plan, injuries will be replaced by players who have been involved this year. Instead of coming up with a new game plan after we have lost the WC, this time we will bring a new game plan to the WC, the majority of player involved have played over 30 tests, a growing group over 60 tests... think about that kiwis and sleep well... it will be an intriguing yr... peaked to early?.. no chance.... About to peak? think so....
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I don't really think it's as simple as peaking. You have to look at things on a case by case basis. In 2007 a lot of things went wrong. True, 2006 especially was a golden year. If not for So'iolo's actions in Rustenberg then that would have been an unbeaten year. But we also had a lot of expectations and policies in place that simply didn't work. Rest and rotation policy didn't work and players were rusty. Fitness was great but there really is no substitute for playing rugby each week for 80 minutes. We didn't have the plethora of options at number 10 like we do now. McAlister was make-shift 10 and Nick Evans was the only genuine option outside of Carter. Speaking of whom, we relied on McCaw and Carter a lot in those years. I wouldn't say we're so reliant on individuals now. Guys like Savea, Aaron Smith and Read are crucial, but not to such a humungous extent. We never really nailed down a solid centre option. Mills was a fullback, not a 13. And in the quarter final itself, well...not to re-litigate arguments here but Wayne Barnes was shocking, and the All Blacks were their own worst enemies in the first half by engaging in ariel ping pong.

My point is there are a lot of elements that happen and policies that get implemented. So I don't think it's as simple as "the All Blacks have peaked". There is plenty for us to work on. And the 2011 winning team had plenty to work on too. Lost the Super Rugby comp, lost the Tri Nations, etc. I would like to see us work on discipline, and ascertaining and solid start and possession early on. Teams get us on the ropes we they continuously deprive us of possession. Springboks barely let us have ANY in the first half of the match where they defeated us.
 
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NZ didn't actually play as well as people make out through 2013. I think they were on a par with this year, but with more injuries this year.
If Carter has an injury free S15 he will be first choice again IMO then NZ will be a different team again.
 

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