HEC Post Round 4 Review

[shazbooger]

Well four rounds in an the groups are starting to take shape with potential quarter finalists queuing up.

Here's my take on the groups.

Pool 6:</span>
Round five will give both London Irish and Leinster two games they would both expect to win, and win with Bonus points. I reckon both of them will miss the bonus points and it will come down to a head to head in Reading. The winner getting a home quarterfinal, the loser travelling but still qualifying. I'm putting Leisnter down for the win but only because I'm a Leinster fan and I think we'll be smack on form unlike the round one fixture.

Leinster - 23
<span style="color:#ff0000">Not-nots - 20
Scarlets
Brive

So there you have it,
Home: Toulouse, Leinster, Munster, Biarritz.
Away: London Irish, Stade, Clermont, Leicester.

Jesus there are going to be some epic matches in that lineup. Hard to pick a weak team in there, especially as all the French teams have stated they want to win it.

 

[Bullitt]

Barring any surprises, looks about right to me.

 

[dullonien]

Can't agree with you about the Ospreys failing to pick up any more wins. I think they'll be good enough to sneak a bonus point away against Clermont, then win at home v the Tigers. The Ospreys haven't lost a home HC match since 2005 I think, and it's not going to happen this season. They're looking good, very good imo. And with Adam Jones back, their scrum will be solid once more. Add to that, Ian Evans and Ryan Jones have also returned from injury and Lee Burne is expected very soon. I'm gonna back the Spreys to top pool 3 with 21 points.

The rest looks spot on though.

 

[Bullitt]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (dullonien @ Dec 21 2009, 02:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

I'm gonna back the Spreys to top pool 3 with 21 points.[/b]

I bet you a rep point you're wrong.

2nd - maybe, top - No chance.

 

[shazbooger]

The Sprays vs Leicester was the one game I found hard to call. I actually changed my mind from the Sprays to the Tigers in the last minute so i agree in that it will be close. Personally I'd prefer the Sprays to go through, but its damn hard betting against a full strength Tigers.

 

[munstermuffin]

Could Sale sneak in ???? Like Toulouse aren't best for cold night in Stockport

 

[Mr.cyclopede]

Thanks for this topic Logo, excellent to have a brief on the situation at half time before the play off.

Clermont has everything in his hands, but what happened to Perpignan yesterday is here to remind that the slightest lurch drive to death.
I sometimes claim for refering, but otherwise this competition is splendid in what it brings as surprises (good or bad) and last minute changes.

Biarritz can be one of the next, absolutely no idea of how it will perform, as its pool was definitely weak, Even in TOP14, BTZ seemed to go better with the arrival of the new coach, but still very fragile team.

SF very inconsistent too, despite a more solid defense since Delamas is here. Game not very creative, but could step to the semis maybe if all key players are here (not speaking of Dupuy <_< , but mainly about impact players like Bastareaud or Swarz).

Toulouse and Clermont have the best chances IMO. TLS this year because it has shown very good things despite the absence of Kelleher and Ellissalde, and tired players hardly sollicited with the XV de France automn tests, Clermont because it gained in realism and able to worry everyone everywhere even in difficult situations (like in Munster last year). Weakness of Clermont is the importance of Broke James, not only a perfect scorer but also the excellent coordinator of the game plans.

 

[dullonien]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Teh Mite @ Dec 21 2009, 02:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (dullonien @ Dec 21 2009, 02:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm gonna back the Spreys to top pool 3 with 21 points.[/b]

I bet you a rep point you're wrong.

2nd - maybe, top - No chance.

[/b][/quote]

It will require the Ospreys getting a bonus point away to Clermont and denying them one for 4 tries, but I think that's possible. Expecting Clermont to then get the bonus point win over Viadanna, and if the O's can overturn Leicester (odds on imo) without getting the bonus point. Both teams will then end on 21 points, but the Ospreys will probably top the pool on points difference (+60 points difference margin over Clermons at present), I think that's right?

Yeh go on then, I'll bet a rep point. Quite possibly I'll loose it and the O's will finish 2nd or 3rd, but I think they are building up alot better then the last few seasons. Can you remember the last time the Ospreys were playing with such flair (as a team that is)?

Gonna look stupid now if they loose their last two games, oh well!

 

[durbutter]

Is it points difference or do head to heads come into it?

 

[dullonien]

Doesn't it go. Number of bonus points picked up -> points difference -> not sure after that?

If it does, then Clermont will top the pool with the senario I put forward above, as they'll have 3 bonus points after getting one against Viadanna in the 6th round. ********, is it to late to pull out of the bet Mite?

Edit: damn, I cursed Leicester for conceding that penalty at the death v Clermont on the weekend. Knew it would come back to haunt the Ospreys.

 

[Mr.cyclopede]

I think it's in that order Dull, here what I found (with my own translation...):

Teams in the same pool, if two are ex-aequo, classment will be based on (in priority)
a/ The team wich has the highest number of points in the 2 matches (on the base we know for victory, deuce, offensive and defensive points).
b/ The team wich score the highest number of tries, still during the 2 matches.
c/ The team wich has the best score difference mesured on the 2 matches

For teams in different pools (best second places), based on:
a/ The team wich scored the highest number of tries
b/ The team wich has the best score difference mesured on all the pool matches
c/The team wich has the lowest number of red/yellow carded players
d/Draw with a coin

Watching this, For Clermont to finish first they need whether to score 4 tries receiving O's, or to deny them the defensive BP, if we consider they are sure to take 5 at Viadana. Here's the challenge

 

[Olyy]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (munstermuffin @ Dec 21 2009, 02:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

Could Sale sneak in ???? Like Toulouse aren't best for cold night in Stockport[/b]

I think we've a very good chance, we've found form in the past few games, hopefully it'll carry on
I reckon we can beat Cardiff, just depends how well Toulose fare against us at home

 

[munstermuffin]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Olyy @ Dec 21 2009, 06:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (munstermuffin @ Dec 21 2009, 02:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Could Sale sneak in ???? Like Toulouse aren't best for cold night in Stockport[/b]

I think we've a very good chance, we've found form in the past few games, hopefully it'll carry on
I reckon we can beat Cardiff, just depends how well Toulose fare against us at home
[/b][/quote]
Agree with you Olyy as from what I seen ye can and I believe if ye can beat Cardiff and Toulouse if ye maintain standards.

Ben Cohen is rolling back years and Charlie Hodgson (while known to be a bottler) if he performs Sale are a serious threat

 

[Thingimubob]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (munstermuffin @ Dec 21 2009, 06:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Olyy @ Dec 21 2009, 06:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (munstermuffin @ Dec 21 2009, 02:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Could Sale sneak in ???? Like Toulouse aren't best for cold night in Stockport[/b]

I think we've a very good chance, we've found form in the past few games, hopefully it'll carry on
I reckon we can beat Cardiff, just depends how well Toulose fare against us at home
[/b][/quote]
Agree with you Olyy as from what I seen ye can and I believe if ye can beat Cardiff and Toulouse if ye maintain standards.

Ben Cohen is rolling back years and Charlie Hodgson (while known to be a bottler) if he performs Sale are a serious threat
[/b][/quote]

Depends what the Blues' injury situation is, and, as always, on Norton-Knight. If the Blues have Roberts, Shanklin (though then again we've got Laulala now - can't wait to see him and Roberts together), Halfpenny and Martyn Williams available then I'd tip the Blues. Will be an interesting match anyway.

 

[Olyy]

If Blues play SNK at FH we should be ok
If he's at FB however...

Can't wait either way, our team was underperforming badly last time, and we only won because the ref was very much on Sales side throughout, this time should be much more evenly matched