Home Advantage?

[Getofmeland]

@buck_mitchell is back with his latest blog around the Heineken Cup, looking at the advantage of playing at Home.

Saturday sees the 16th Heineken Cup final take place in Cardiff between Northampton Saints and Leinster. These teams finished the group stages seeded 1 and 2 respectively so home advantage in the knock out stages of the competition has undoubtedly aided their progressions in the competition. That̢۪s fair enough you may think the best 2 teams all season have reached the final they no doubt deserve to be in, however the group stages finished in January and the Quarter Finals were not played until the 6 Nations had finished in mid- April. Over that space of time teams suffered significant changes in form, Northampton were seriously affected both during and after the 6 Nations as they lost their inspirational captain and hooker Dylan Hartley, their dynamic young second row Courtney Lawes and outstanding 24 year old flank forward Tom Wood to the National team along with Rugby League Convert and leading try scorer Chris Ashton and counter attacking Fullback Ben Foden all to the senior England team not mention several others to the Saxons team. During this period they could only beat 3 teams who finished in the bottom four of their league. Their Quarter Final opponents Ulster only lost 1 game during the same period. Rugby Club Toulonnais were undefeated in their domestic league between January and April whilst their opponents Union Sportive Arlequins Perpignan won only 2 games in that space of time.

Given the form of the teams involved in those games I expected them to be closely fought match ups with very close results, but not so, with the exception of 1 game, that went to extra time all the Quarter Finals were won, and in most cases dominated by the home teams. The major common factor I noticed in all the games was how the home crowd influenced the decisions of the officials. Even in the game which went to extra time the home sides try in the dying seconds of the 80 minutes which tied the scores and lead to a possible game winning conversion attempt came from a charge down by a player who was at least 2 yards offside. In the Aviva stadium Leinster starved their opponents the Leicester Tigers of possession by repeatedly infringing at line outs, Leinster̢۪s jumpers were consistently caught by the TV cameras playing the opposite number instead of the ball. This meant that instead of being caught by a Leicester player the ball innocuously sailed over the players in the lineout and was tidied up usually by either a Leinster back row player or one of their inside backs.Leinster won the game by 7 points 17-10. In Milton Keynes where Northampton were the home team the Saints battled to a 23-13 win over visitors Ulster with a first try that appeared, at least to me, to me controversial than it first looked. Loose head prop Soane Tonga̢۪huie looked to be standing in the middle of a ruck when he picked up the ball and ran from the 5 yard line to score.

I am not insisting that the results of these games were solely dependent on officials and all the losing sides would agree that they were not at their best, but judging from the score lines and just how monotonous the games were to watch neither were the winning teams. The seeming impossibility of away teams winning in the knock out stages is backed up by the stark fact that in the last 3 seasons only 1 away team, Leinster has won a Heineken Cup semi final after 80 minutes and Extra time.

There is no easy solution to this poser and I can only think of two alternatives. One would be to play the knock out stages at neutral venues, but this would be very costly for fans and could lead to Quarter Finals particularly being played in front of less than capacity crowds. The second and more sensible option would be to play the knock out stages as 2 legged affairs as they do in the Champions League, however for this to be an effective solution there would need to be a way to provide the top seeds with an advantage otherwise there would be no incentive to finish as the top seed.

Blog by @buck_mitchell

 

[Logorrhea]

The seeming impossibility of away teams winning in the knock out stages is backed up by the stark fact that in the last 3 seasons only 1 away team, Leinster has won a Heineken Cup semi final after 80 minutes and Extra time.

Stark fact me balls. In 2009 50% of the KO matches were won by the away team. The same in 2008, 2006, 2004, 2003, and it was 33% in 2002 and 2005. Two years dont make a case.

The home draw is the correct reward for the top 4 seeded teams in the group phase.

One would be to play the knock out stages at neutral venues, but this would be very costly for fans and could lead to Quarter Finals particularly being played in front of less than capacity crowds.

Toulouse brought 4 thousand to the Aviva this year, we brought about the same to Toulouse last year. Anyhoo, maybe with a few neutrals we could get about 20,000 into the Millenium for a semi? This is not an option.

The second and more sensible option would be to play the knock out stages as 2 legged affairs as they do in the Champions League

Cant see how adding another two games to the calendar (have to do it over quarters and semis) will help anyone aside from the French teams who have the squads to manage it.

HEC is all about the drama, the spectacle, and the knowledge that anyone can win on their day. You'll damage the tournament with two legged semis and quarters.

 

[psychic duck]

I agree completely with your point @Buck_Mitchell, good article, congratulations

and the stats can be misleading because although Toulouse beat Biarritz away, I think pound for pound Toulouse are a lot better than beating Biarritz in extra time.

And if 2 legs were introduced it would be a fairer indication of which team deserves to go through

I'm not saying Biarritz couldn't upset Toulouse, but if they did it home and away they would deserve to go through a lot more

also the competition has changed over the years and about teams are more are around about equal and the team with home advantage wins, your point Buck_Mitchell is actually illustrated in the group stages as well

all the teams who finished in the top 2 of their group and the Ospreys won all their home games (apart from Cardiff Blues who lost to Northampton but had a red card in that match)

I'm not saying the pool stages are unfair, but I'm saying how predictable the home team winning is becoming

roughly there are about 13 teams in Europe, who all beat each other depending who has the home advantage

for example, when Clermont played Leinster this year at home, it was obvious Clermont would win and vice versa when Leinster played at home, and it was all too predictable

and at the knockout stages it was predictable Northampton would beat Perpignan, but if Perpignan had played a return leg at Barcelona there would of been a close tie.

and Logorrhea said

HEC is all about the drama, the spectacle, and the knowledge that anyone can win on their day

I think 2 legs would reward upsets, for example last year when Ospreys came really close to beating Biarritz away last year, they would of only had 1 point to make up, and I think there still could be drama, miracle matches with two legs also

Munster's miracle match of 2003, was a bit like the drama you could have with 2 legs, with Munster needing a crucial try at the end to beat Gloucester by the margin required

the Quarter home ties are earnt (although some teams may have a much harder group than others with Italian teams), but semi final home draws are a complete lottery and must be played over two legs

I actually suggested this on another thread, and one poster made a rampant over reaction to adding another game by saying it would "kill off" the domestic leagues or 6 nations or summer tours

although too much rugby is an issue to be aware of, I really want to see sides win the H Cup whilst proving that they are the best team home and away

 

[@buck_mitchell]

@ Logorrheahttp://www.therugbyforum.com/forum/member.php?43061-Logorrhea

In 2009 only Leinster won "away" from home in 2 KO games, although the Semi Final was played at Croke Park, even though Munster were the home team (Thomond Parks was being expanded if I remember crrectly) & Leicester drew and went through on "penalties" but they may as well have tossed a coin, 2 (or technically 1 since Croke Park is Leinster) out of 6 is not 50% where I come from.

Did you actually watch all of the quarter finals ? Spectacle ? Drama ? The only dramatic 1 was the Biarritz v Toulouse game that went to OT & there was hardly any spectacle involved in that, just 2 French teams dropping the wet ball and an equalising try that came with the assistance of a player who was a mile offside. Where is "the knowledge that anyone can win on their day" if the home team is virtually guaranteed to qualify for the next round ?

 

[Logorrhea]

2 (or technically 1 since Croke Park is Leinster) out of 6 is not 50% where I come from.

Leinster won away at Quins in the quarters then both Leicester and Leinster won away in the semis. Which bit dont you get?

Did you actually watch all of the quarter finals? Spectacle? Drama?

Seriously? Unbelievable statement. You are a S15 fan I take it?

Where is "the knowledge that anyone can win on their day" if the home team is virtually guaranteed to qualify for the next round?

Where is this virtual guarantee you speak of? One of this years Quarters went to the away team, two of the other three were one score games. In the semis Toulouse led by 7 at the start and were within a score up to the final kick of the game.

You talk as if the results are pre-determined. When history over the years shows thats not true.

although too much rugby is an issue to be aware of, I really want to see sides win the H Cup whilst proving that they are the best team home and away

Well then the final should be over two legs too then. Adding to that, would you please explain how you add two (or three now) more games to the rugby calendar? At the moments its like agreeing to the concept of world peace, if we could only make it happen.

 

[psychic duck]

Well then the final should be over two legs too then. Adding to that, would you please explain how you add two (or three now) more games to the rugby calendar? At the moments its like agreeing to the concept of world peace, if we could only make it happen.

i didn't say final, because that sells out at a neutral venue

 

[Feicarsinn]

Home and Away stats for Heineken Cup knockout rounds:
(Percentage of games won by away team)

2011: 16.67%
2010: 0%
2009: 50%
2008: 50%
2007: 33.33%
2006: 50%
2005: 33.33%
2004: 33.33%
2003: 50%
2002: 50%
2001: 0%
2000: 16.67%
1999: 0%
Before 1999 a different format was in operation and therefore it is difficult to make a good comparison.

Percentage of knockout games decided by 1 score or less(excluding finals):
2011: 50%
2010: 33.33%
2009: 66.67%
2008: 33.33%
2007: 33.33%
2006: 50%
2005: 16.67%
2004: 33.33%
2003: 66.67%
2002: 50%
2001: 50%
2000: 50%


Take what you will from that. What'd I'd say is that as a significant number of games are decided by less than a score, home advantage isn't too big a deal. If the away side can get to within a score, they can win the game. That to me means that it's far from a certain thing that the home team wins. The last two years have been anomalous in terms of away wins, but so was the period around the turn of the millenium and that was followed by some really competitive knockout stages. As long as the games remain competitive, which the second group of statistics shows, then I don't think it's a problem. Mountains out of molehills.