Impact of no tests in 2020 for SA's RWC 2023 preparations.

[califauna]

I'm interested in opinions on the degree to which SA's preparations for RWC 2023 will have been set back by the cancellation of all their tests in 2020, and how that set back might manifest itself in their preparations between now and the RWC regarding development of playing styles/blooding players/building depth/performance levels etc..

Australia and New Zealand only played 4 and 5 tests respectively in 2020. The northern hemisphere teams played pretty much a regular number of tests, though with obvious disruptions and complications due to covid regulations.

Aside from Rassie's image in the rugby press in some countries and the Springbok's 'functional' brand of rugby and how that leads to biases, generally I'm interested in reasons SA are not seen as favorites for the tournament at the bookmakers (and amongst pundits). They are current World Champions, World number 1 (although they didn't defend it in 2020), have some awesome players, and have just beaten the Lions after all.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

The reason I'm doubting the Boks is because:

- their half of the draw is really tough
- their HC got his first HC gig as Boks coach (if Wikipedia is to be believed)

The fact their HC has such limited experience as a HC will be magnified as an issue by the lack of Tests in 2020. I'm not saying that the Boks will fail, only that they are an unknown (will they adopt the more expansive play style of the URC sides for example? Early signs suggest not).

 

[califauna]

So in your view Nienaber is the de-facto head coach proper then? I get the impression Erasmus something between a head coach and DOR in reality, and would probably take the head coach reins as and when necessary, for example Nienaber isn't ready, even though he's officially the Director Of Rugby.

 

[SupportingOwnBodyWeight]

I'm interested in opinions on the degree to which SA's preparations for RWC 2023 will have been set back by the cancellation of all their tests in 2020, and how that set back might manifest itself in their preparations between now and the RWC regarding development of playing styles/blooding players/building depth/performance levels etc..

Australia and New Zealand only played 4 and 5 tests respectively in 2020. The northern hemisphere teams played pretty much a regular number of tests, though with obvious disruptions and complications due to covid regulations.

Aside from Rassie's image in the rugby press in some countries and the Springbok's 'functional' brand of rugby and how that leads to biases, generally I'm interested in reasons SA are not seen as favorites for the tournament at the bookmakers (and amongst pundits). They are current World Champions, World number 1 (although they didn't defend it in 2020), have some awesome players, and have just beaten the Lions after all.

Hi
It is a very interesting point you raise, as it (lack of tests) will also affect the selections this year. Many pundits and viewers in SA would like to see the form players (Roos, Louw, Fassie, Arendse, etc) rewarded with call-ups and proper game time. The URC, and the Currie Cup to some extent, has seen many young players perform really well against (and with) international players. This is not to exclude the added-value brought by the return of many experience stalwarts (Coetsee, F Steyn, M STeyn, Du Plessis brothers, to name a few) ...who should also be in the Springbok setup.

Then add 20+ players applying their trade overseas and the overall outlook isn't so bad. In fact, I believe this group of players will be vital in France 2023.

With regards to the Springboks not being favourites amongst global rugby pundits and bookmakers, it's nothing new. They were written off in Japan 2019 before and during the RWC and they managed to pioneer their way to glory by winning the Webb Ellis after a defeat in the group stages. They were again underestimated by the B&I Lions with pundits and bookmakers touting the idea of a whitewash on the cards. Boks proved them wrong again.

This is not to say the Boks will always prevail when the odds are against them but they certainly enjoy being the "underdogs".
Back to the effect of not playing much rugby in 2020, particularly at the highest levels, it will certainly have an effect on "development of playing styles/blooding players/building depth/performance levels". All these were sacrificed to win the series, and so, the tried and trusted methods and personnel were used. It must be said, however, that the overseas contingent helped paper over some cracks with regards to lack of gameplay (at any level) experienced by the local players. Similarly in 2019, they were Rassie's Trump cards, as they brought experience and a set of skills suitable to the Bok cause. The Springbok management were spoilt for choice by the end of the World cup, and so too after the Lions series. This time around they are spoilt for choice 18 months before the next RWC which includes the resurgence of the local players (seen in the URC turn around).... so no, ultimately, I don't believe the Boks will suffer too much from that lapse in game time.

 

[SupportingOwnBodyWeight]

PS: I personally don't blame the bookies that much. Ireland and France are peaking at the moment, perhaps that has influenced their ratings. And looking at the draw, the Boks would have to beat 2 of the Big 4 (Ireland and France/NZL) just to get to the semis.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

So in your view Nienaber is the de-facto head coach proper then? I get the impression Erasmus something between a head coach and DOR in reality, and would probably take the head coach reins as and when necessary, for example Nienaber isn't ready, even though he's officially the Director Of Rugby.

I don't have a clue, but either way its potentially a bit dysfunctional. His shift to DoR (his originally intended position I believe pre-2019?) was prior to his ban, so it wasn't like this was a technical manouevre to simply circumvent a ban. I think we have to assume a level of authority has changed hands?

I do have the Boks as my predicted second strongest side in World Rugby by 2032 in another thread, so I think they are on an upward curve. I'm just not sure they'll have all those pieces in place for 2023 if Nienaber is carrying out the functions of a head coach. I do have them as slight favourites to win The Rugby Championship this year regardless and find their odds at the moment (roughly half the chance of NZ or France) a bit baffling.

 

[SupportingOwnBodyWeight]

The reason I'm doubting the Boks is because:

- their half of the draw is really tough
- their HC got his first HC gig as Boks coach (if Wikipedia is to be believed)

The fact their HC has such limited experience as a HC will be magnified as an issue by the lack of Tests in 2020. I'm not saying that the Boks will fail, only that they are an unknown (will they adopt the more expansive play style of the URC sides for example? Early signs suggest not).

Hi

These are valid points. The SA'ns will be hoping that the HC uses the next 18 months (+- 20 tests) to expand on the current style.