IRB rankings and RWC 2015 pool draws

[TRF_stormer2010]

http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html

So with the seedings after the November international determining in a large part the pools for the next world cup what are people expecting?

I feel for England who have lost their all-important 4rth spot to France all while trouncing Fiji (you can only play what's in front of you). That said, they'll get their chances against Aus and SA (both with higher points) and thus a fair shot to go up the rankings still.

NZ should remain 1st.

From there on out it's all up for grabs and even Scotland in 9th can go into the top 8 (and have a 75% of only having 1 top tier nation in their pool as opposed to 2- I don't count Italy, Samoa and Tonga as tier 1 personally) if they manage to make right after the weekend and beat an understrength SA side.

My guess is that if Aus can't pull back together from the loss against France they could find themselves outside of the top 4 if they fall foul to one or both of England and Wales. I do have a habit of losing money betting against a dogged Aussie side though.

 

[TRF_heineken]

http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html

So with the seedings after the November international determining in a large part the pools for the next world cup what are people expecting?

I feel for England who have lost their all-important 4rth spot to France all while trouncing Fiji (you can only play what's in front of you). That said, they'll get their chances against Aus and SA (both with higher points) and thus a fair shot to go up the rankings still.

NZ should remain 1st.

From there on out it's all up for grabs and even Scotland in 9th can go into the top 8 (and have a 75% of only having 1 top tier nation in their pool as opposed to 2- I don't count Italy, Samoa and Tonga as tier 1 personally) if they manage to make right after the weekend and beat an understrength SA side.

My guess is that if Aus can't pull back together from the loss against France they could find themselves outside of the top 4 if they fall foul to one or both of England and Wales. I do have a habit of losing money betting against a dogged Aussie side though.

What's the likelyhood of having more than one pool of death at the next World Cup?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Well, I suppose the worst possible scenario for a pool of death would be NZ(1), Aus/SA(5) and Argentina(9) all in the same pool IF some of the SH teams have bad games from here on out and drop below that pivotal no4 and no.8 ranking.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Well, I suppose the worst possible scenario for a pool of death would be NZ(1), Aus/SA(5) and Argentina(9) all in the same pool IF some of the SH teams have bad games from here on out and drop below that pivotal no4 and no.8 ranking.

Is it even possible for SA to drop that much?? we only have 2 games left, where other countries have 3 left. Surely we won't have to worry about a pool of death even if we lose our next 2 games?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Is it even possible for SA to drop that much?? we only have 2 games left, where other countries have 3 left. Surely we won't have to worry about a pool of death even if we lose our next 2 games?

yeah we can drop to 6th. If we lose to Scotland it'll be a big loss of points. Scotland count as +3 points because they are home but that still puts them almost 5 points behind us so a loss to them could see us slide as we aren't that far ahead of England, France and Aus.

I'm sure there's a ranking calculator somewhere on the net to check but I unfortunately don't possess the googlefu to do so.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php

 

[TRF_heineken]

yeah we can drop to 6th. If we lose to Scotland it'll be a big loss of points. Scotland count as +3 points because they are home but that still puts them almost 5 points behind us so a loss to them could see us slide as we aren't that far ahead of England, France and Aus.

I'm sure there's a ranking calculator somewhere on the net to check but I unfortunately don't possess the googlefu to do so.

Ah got it... we're okay though... don't worry

 

[erwanseb]

The seeding system for next rwc based on irb ranking at the end of November tour provides a very significant incentive which is spicing up this tour very nicely.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

My predictions:

1 NZ 93.30
2 SA 87.14
3 France 84.85
4 Aus 83.46

5 England 82.58
6 Wales 82.01
7 Ireland 79.84
8 Argentina 79.22

9 Scotland 77.99
10 Samoa 76.79
11 Italy 76.04
12 Tonga 73.65

 

[erwanseb]

Mine hinging on Wales and England beating Australia and Argentina beating Ireland
1. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1New Zealand </st1:country-region>93.810<O</O
2. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1South Africa</st1:country-region> 85.139<O</O
3. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1France</st1:country-region> 84.85<O</O
4. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1England 84.155</ST1</st1:country-region>

5. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Australia </ST1</st1:country-region>83.712<O</O
6. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Wales</st1:country-region> 82.033<O</O
7. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina </st1:country-region>81.221<O</O
8. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Scotland </st1:country-region>77.993

9. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Ireland</ST1</st1:country-region> 77.838<O</O
10. <ST1Samoa 77.140<O</O
11. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Italy</st1:country-region> 75.761<O</O
12. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><ST1Tonga </st1:country-region>73.650

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Mine hinging on Wales and England beating Australia and Argentina beating Ireland
1. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1New Zealand </st1</st1:country-region>93.810<o</o
2. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1South Africa</st1</st1:country-region> 85.139<o</o
3. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1France</st1</st1:country-region> 84.85<o</o
4. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1England 84.155</st1</st1:country-region>

5. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1Australia </st1</st1:country-region>83.712<o</o
6. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Wales</st1:country-region> 82.033<o</o
7. <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina </st1:country-region>81.221<o</o
8. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1Scotland </st1</st1:country-region>77.993

9. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1Ireland</st1</st1:country-region> 77.838<o</o
10. <st1Samoa 77.140<o</o</st1
11. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1Italy</st1</st1:country-region> 75.761<o</o
12. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1Tonga </st1</st1:country-region>73.650

I think the only differences between our predictions is I have Ireland beating Argentina and SA beating England.

 

[erwanseb]

Spot on, I had a typo on the original Samoa ranking and a few score difference by more than 15.
You have
Wales>Samoa
NZ>Italy
England>Oz
SA>Scotland
France>Argentina
Ireland>Argentina
SA>England
Oz>Italy
Scotland>Tonga
France>Samoa
NZ>Wales
NZ>England
Wales>Australia

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Spot on, I had a typo on the original Samoa ranking and a few score difference by more than 15.
You have
Wales>Samoa
NZ>Italy
England>Oz
SA>Scotland
France>Argentina
Ireland>Argentina
SA>England
Oz>Italy
Scotland>Tonga
France>Samoa
NZ>Wales
NZ>England
Wales>Australia

Right you are. I may be underestimating Aus and Arg and overestimating RSA LOL.

 

[Big Ewis]

My predictions:

1 NZ 93.30
2 SA 87.14
3 France 84.85
4 Aus 83.46

5 England 82.58
6 Wales 82.01
7 Ireland 79.84
8 Argentina 79.22

9 Scotland 77.99
10 Samoa 76.79
11 Italy 76.04
12 Tonga 73.65

ERrr....I like that one a lot. ^_^

 

[ZeFrenchy]

Do you guys know how the pools will be made up then? Does each of the top 4 sides have equal chance of being drawn with any other side of the 5th to 8th places?

 

[psychic duck]

Do you guys know how the pools will be made up then? Does each of the top 4 sides have equal chance of being drawn with any other side of the 5th to 8th places?

No. After they are made into groups of 4, it is all just selected from a pot.

The qualifying groups are:

4th seed in the pool: Oceania 1, Europe 1, Europe 2, Americas 1
5th seed in the pool: Africa 1, Asia 1, Americas 2, Repechage

I don't know why they don't do that on rankings as well to be honest.

Asia 1 is Japan, and they are currently ranked 15th so shouldn't they be 4th seed in the pool rather than 5th seed in the pool? Asia 1 should swap around with Europe 2 (Romania ranked 18) in my opinion.

 

[ZeFrenchy]

No. After they are made into groups of 4, it is all just selected from a pot.

The qualifying groups are:

4th seed in the pool: Oceania 1, Europe 1, Europe 2, Americas 1
5th seed in the pool: Africa 1, Asia 1, Americas 2, Repechage

I don't know why they don't do that on rankings as well to be honest.

Asia 1 is Japan, and they are currently ranked 15th so shouldn't they be 4th seed in the pool rather than 5th seed in the pool? Asia 1 should swap around with Europe 2 (Romania ranked 18) in my opinion.

Thanks. I guessed I phrased my question wrongly though... According to what you explained, your post should have started by a "yes"...

I got it: replace "any other side of" by "each of the sides in". I figured they would have only one, I didn't know if it was 1st against 8th, etc., or by draw.

An I agree they should do it by ranking. I guess that as they do it now, they can't know the rankings of all the qualified teams, to which there is a (brilliant!) solution: don't draw the pools three years in advance!!

 

[psychic duck]

Thanks. I guessed I phrased my question wrongly though... According to what you explained, your post should have started by a "yes"...

I got it: replace "any other side of" by "each of the sides in". I figured they would have only one, I didn't know if it was 1st against 8th, etc., or by draw.

An I agree they should do it by ranking. I guess that as they do it now, they can't know the rankings of all the qualified teams, to which there is a (brilliant!) solution: don't draw the pools three years in advance!!

Precisely!

Although I think most even casual followers of Tier 2 rugby should be able to confidently predict 6 of the 8 qualifying teams.

 

[SpanishBob]

http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html

So with the seedings after the November international determining in a large part the pools for the next world cup what are people expecting?

I feel for England who have lost their all-important 4rth spot to France all while trouncing Fiji (you can only play what's in front of you). That said, they'll get their chances against Aus and SA (both with higher points) and thus a fair shot to go up the rankings still.

NZ should remain 1st.

From there on out it's all up for grabs and even Scotland in 9th can go into the top 8 (and have a 75% of only having 1 top tier nation in their pool as opposed to 2- I don't count Italy, Samoa and Tonga as tier 1 personally) if they manage to make right after the weekend and beat an understrength SA side.

My guess is that if Aus can't pull back together from the loss against France they could find themselves outside of the top 4 if they fall foul to one or both of England and Wales. I do have a habit of losing money betting against a dogged Aussie side though.

Why? As far as I know Italy has beaten Scotland twice in the last three six nations games. Besides, in the recent past France has also lost against Italy, and on the other hand Scotland has never been a solid rival against France recently. Italy is tier 1, and it deserves that place considering Scotland is also Tier 1. Samoa only have its full strength side on WC years, otherwise considering how tough was its resistance against Wales and SA in the WC I think they are a very competitive and solid team.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Why? As far as I know Italy has beaten Scotland twice in the last three six nations games. Besides, in the recent past France has also lost against Italy, and on the other hand Scotland has never been a solid rival against France recently. Italy is tier 1, and it deserves that place considering Scotland is also Tier 1. Samoa only have its full strength side on WC years, otherwise considering how tough was its resistance against Wales and SA in the WC I think they are a very competitive and solid team.

So our counter-argument would then be, that Scotland has Beaten South Africa and Australia recently... Something that Italy hasn't accomplished...