Is New Zealand losing its dominance in Rugby

[easy2288]

New Zealand lost 3 major tournaments recently.

1) IRB Junior World Championship in Auckland, 3rd in Home country (beaten by South Africa in semis)
2) New Zealand's recent loss to South Africa in the final of the Commonwealth Games (7s)
3) Blacks Ferms cannot even make it to the semis in World Cup happening now in France..

These are bad signs...I am looking forward to ABs preparation for the World Cup next year and don't be complacent..



...

 

[Sam Owen]

Well it's kind of expected. Surely NZ cant reign for too long as the worlds best at all things Rugby Union.

Are they losing their dominance now at this time remains to be seen. So far they've had the losses you mentioned easy and whether it's saying something about the future is as uncertain as the future. I think they'd have to lose the 7s for the next 2 years, lose all their womens teams games against the top women sides for the next 2 years and ABs losing 40% or more of their games for the next 2 years for me to say they've lost their dominance.

 

[nickdnz]

Meh, 17 tests won on the trot.

There are some issues New Zealand rugby has. There is unfortunately a big talent drain, more of coaches than players which is concerning. Since Dave Rennie left we haven't had particularly great coaches take over the U20s, Chris Boyd being an example of a pretty average coach being afforded higher honors. We lost the gold medal in 7's in my opinion because we didn't select the best players possible for the Commonwealth Games where as South Africa did (SA won't have as good a squad for the entire world series next year), but 14 minutes of rugby isn't all that doom and gloom. The women's team lost the only Women's world cup they've ever lost - quite possibly indicating the NZRU needs to put more resources in women's rugby (something I'm sure they will be doing looking at the Olympic 7's ).

I'm not too worried. Laws of averages mean everyone is due a loss at some point.

 

[London_Italian]

Are people as interested in rugby as they once were in NZ? Living there two years ago made me think that although there is interest in the national team, there isnt the same number of players coming through. With only a small population this will surely effect their quality?

 

[Guilty]

This topic seems to pop up every year. The AB's are sitting on 17 straight wins so let's wait for them to lose a game before calling the end of an era. 7's and women's rugby are completely irrelevant to the All Blacks so I am hardly convinced.

 

[Sam Owen]

It does affect their quality not too much though in regards to players, there is still plenty of talent coming through though as well as your P.Is coming in off the plane from the Islands.

As I mentioned before from a P.I standpoint, theres a lot of P.Is moving to Australia because of many different reasons (e.g work, family, other oppertunities etc..) and that's how you're getting talent like Will Skelton pop up. It's been happening for ages right back to the days of Willie Ofahengaue who I think could've also been an All Black.

People are always migrating but we're seeing more Islanders move over the tasman in the last 10 years or so. Not too big a loss though, like I said, theres plenty of up and comers coming through straight from the colleges, special mention to kids like Taniela Tupou and Alex Fidow.

So yes and no to your question London

 

[smartcooky]

1) IRB Junior World Championship in Auckland, 3rd in Home country (beaten by South Africa in semis)

For some years, NZ has dominated this tournament because they were able to do it "on the cheap". Other teams didn't really put the resources into trying to win the tournament, seeing it more as a development path for their juniors. Now, however, it's a different story. Those other countries put a lot of money into it. South Africa and England have outstanding systems in place for talent identification, and they also now play a top level build up. England in particular play in the U20 Six Nations. When you look at the preparation they put in beforehand (compared with NZ's almost complete lack of preparation), its easy to see why NZ were not up to scratch. As long as the NZRU continue to think they can effectively turn up to the JRWC "on the day" with little preparation, the U20s will continue to fail at this level

2) New Zealand's recent loss to South Africa in the final of the Commonwealth Games (7s)

I would not read too much into this. Firstly, the final could have gone either way, and secondly they had a lot of new selections and are building for Rio 2016

3) Blacks Ferns cannot even make it to the semis in World Cup happening now in France..

This is similar to the situation with the U20's. The Black Ferns are all amateurs and play very little rugby but they were dominant for a long time when no Unions resourced their teams very well. However, compared with their European counterparts now, they are a long way behind the eight-ball. The England girls are professionally contracted players, and like their U20 counterparts, they play in their own Six Nations. Its all down to resourcing. If the NZRU are serious about having the Black Ferns win the WRWC, they are going to have to stump up with some cash.


What do we need to fix it?

1. An U20 national tournament that runs alongside last part of the Super Rugby season (a bit like the NRL's Holden Cup)

2. Regular competition for the NZ U20 side against meaningful opposition in the eight weeks leading up to the tournament. This could take the form of Junior Rugby Championship/Tri-Nations.

Something similar will be needed for Women's Rugby

All this will cost money, but if the NZRU are serious about winning this thing, they are going to have to do something like this.

 

[goodNumber10]

This is similar to the situation with the U20's. The Black Ferns are all amateurs and play very little rugby but they were dominant for a long time when no Unions resourced their teams very well. However, compared with their European counterparts now, they are a long way behind the eight-ball. The England girls are professionally contracted players, and like their U20 counterparts, they play in their own Six Nations. Its all down to resourcing. If the NZRU are serious about having the Black Ferns win the WRWC, they are going to have to stump up with some cash.

Just a small point the England Girls are not professional players.

Oddly though the Black Ferns actually had their best build up leading into this world cup they have ever had. They played two tough tests against Canada, one against Australia and one walloped Samoa at home. Last year they hosted England and beat them 3 - 0 a bit of a shock result as England had beaten them the last 6/7 times over 2011/2012. They get a lot of exposure to the Number one ranked team in the world but little outside of that.

Your point on resourcing is true though, they play England every year and have done for the last 4-5 years but this is Entirely funded by England.

 

[Big Ewis]

well it's not such a redundant topic, I mean, why not ask the question every year or two ? The answer is NZ isn't actually losing its dominance as far as the AB are concerned. The only thing that comes close to that may be the Saffa youngsters beating the NZ youngsters, as those guys are the future of both nations after all, but I'm sure it's not a first (don't follow U20) and England for e.g. always wins everything there and that does not even nearly follow into the seniors, or else England would win the GS every year and be world champs every 2 Cups.
The 40-game winstreak NZ is enjoying atm can't be an all-argument-ending point either, because they've had great difficulty or considerable difficulty (even at home) in a number of those games. So they could be having an insane streak, but still not be dominant, both notions are very much possible simultaneously.

But the reason I say NZ isn't losing its dominance is because they're still producing superb players. Conrad Smith goes down, oh no, oh no. Bam, along comes Fekitoa. No probs. They've got so much talent their problem is squeezing all the players into the starting XV. We want Dagg in, yeah but we want Ben Smith too. We want Savea and Jane, but what about the young Piutau ?!! First world problems, when you got that kind of problems, you're doin' pretty well.
And you think it's just the backline, check out their halfbacks: Aaron Smith (best in the world for this Ewis), and a brand new Cruden and Barret right after Dan Carter.
Check out their forwards: Read, best player in the world. Mccaw still hitting hard, and Kaino back, considered the best BS in the world. Best 2nd row in the world. And their front row isn't too bad either.

Besides, if anything world competition was scarier for NZ well before this. France, via it's federation's mayhem, are a sinking ship. They had the French Flair before, but we don't know what an attack is anymore. England aren't exactly 2003 England. Granted the emergence of other "smaller" nations like Ireland and Wales offers a bit more difficulty to NZ on the int'l scene, and the Aussies and Saffas are officially back again, but bottom line NZ breeds talent, always, that's just how it is.
We're still not remotely close to their skillset, the way they teach their young; we're still pretty much ruck n pass n ruck n pass in Europe and S.A., and Aus alone aren't going to run them off the park even if they've got Folau and Foley and AAC and some good running Rugby attacking skills.

And I use this just as a conclusion: they are, after all, on a what, 20 game win streak.

 

[nickdnz]

It does affect their quality not too much though in regards to players, there is still plenty of talent coming through though as well as your P.Is coming in off the plane from the Islands.

As I mentioned before from a P.I standpoint, theres a lot of P.Is moving to Australia because of many different reasons (e.g work, family, other oppertunities etc..) and that's how you're getting talent like Will Skelton pop up. It's been happening for ages right back to the days of Willie Ofahengaue who I think could've also been an All Black.

People are always migrating but we're seeing more Islanders move over the tasman in the last 10 years or so. Not too big a loss though, like I said, theres plenty of up and comers coming through straight from the colleges, special mention to kids like Taniela Tupou and Alex Fidow.

So yes and no to your question London

Ahhh bugger. I knew that was it. Had to be a correlation between the All Blacks success and the different international flight destinations available in Faleolo International Airport.

You solved it Sammy .

 

[smartcooky]

It does affect their quality not too much though in regards to players, there is still plenty of talent coming through though as well as your P.Is coming in off the plane from the Islands.

This is rubbish Sam. The number of adult players who have immigrated to NZ from the PI's and played for the All Blacks is tiny, and does not represent a significant part of NZ Rugby's development. Even the number of players who have come from the Islands as children, grown up here and have gone to play for New Zealand is very small.

Would you like to take a guess at how many in, say, the last 30 years?

 

[donmcdazzle]

This is rubbish Sam. The number of adult players who have immigrated to NZ from the PI's and played for the All Blacks is tiny, and does not represent a significant part of NZ Rugby's development. Even the number of players who have come from the Islands as children, grown up here and have gone to play for New Zealand is very small.

Would you like to take a guess at how many in, say, the last 30 years?

As far as Sam is concerned, if your parents went to Samoa on a holiday in the 70's then you are an islander through and through and will forever be tied to the islands, regardless of where you were born or grew up.

 

[Zed]

I think the Rugby Championship this year will be very close. NZ & Australia are fairly evenly matched, I'd expect every game to down to the wire. With Carter I'd put NZ slightly ahead as favourites, but without, it's even stevens.

 

[Guilty]

I think the Rugby Championship this year will be very close. NZ & Australia are fairly evenly matched, I'd expect every game to down to the wire. With Carter I'd put NZ slightly ahead as favourites, but without, it's even stevens.

I too think it will be very close but while positions through #6 to #15 I think this is true, people are really underestimating the NZ tight five and forgetting what they are capable of. It will be interesting for sure and I really do think the gap is closing here fast but I will be amazed if the AB's do not show they have a significant advantage in the scrum and lineout over the series. This so often is the difference in Test rugby and I expect this to be the difference this year but again, would love nothing more to be proven wrong.

If the Wallabies lose the first test (and therefore, most likely the series as a result) there will be two big talking points. (1) Just how much of a difference Moore and TPN make while on the field and (2) Why, oh why, were there only 6 Waratahs starting and only 3 in the backline?

 

[Maverick1987]

I think the Rugby Championship this year will be very close. NZ & Australia are fairly evenly matched, I'd expect every game to down to the wire. With Carter I'd put NZ slightly ahead as favourites, but without, it's even stevens.

Australia to win it ........

You heard if here first also Michael Hooper player of the year

 

[nickdnz]

I think the All Blacks will clean sweep Australia.

Not sure where people are getting this surge of confidence in Oz...A good super rugby season =/= good international team.

 

[TRF_heineken]

I think the All Blacks will clean sweep Australia.

Not sure where people are getting this surge of confidence in Oz...A good super rugby season =/= good international team.

This!

Also, the total disregard of South Africa and how we might go in this tournament based only on the Super Rugby results.

I think it will still be the same looking log as last year with regards to the standings, but with the points being much closer.

And I also think the OP is a bit premature. If we look at the examples given, then it's clear that the other nations have started to concentrate a lot on DEVELOPMENT. I have seen this first hand in South Africa. But it's a long process, and you will get periods where the top dog will go through slumps... That's just how it works. As a non-NZ'er, I think the Senior team is still ahead in regard with the other teams, with SA coming the closest to them, even though we haven't beaten the All Blacks in more than 2 years.

 

[Patchey]

This!

Also, the total disregard of South Africa and how we might go in this tournament based only on the Super Rugby results.

I think it will still be the same looking log as last year with regards to the standings, but with the points being much closer.

And I also think the OP is a bit premature. If we look at the examples given, then it's clear that the other nations have started to concentrate a lot on DEVELOPMENT. I have seen this first hand in South Africa. But it's a long process, and you will get periods where the top dog will go through slumps... That's just how it works. As a non-NZ'er, I think the Senior team is still ahead in regard with the other teams, with SA coming the closest to them, even though we haven't beaten the All Blacks in more than 2 years.

Got to agree here. It seems most commentators have looked at the domestic standings, seen a strong Aus turn out and completely negated how ominous the Boks have looked since the last RC, which was also proceeded by a Super Rugby season where the South African domestic sides hardly shone.

Also, Australia are going to start the tournament without a front row at this rate. So I think they're being set up to fail by the press.


Regarding the original point, no. The slump in the U20s might affect the adult mens side in a few years (after 2016 when you're looking to rebuild post-Word Cup) but right now the All Blacks squad looks strong in depth and experience across all positions except hooker. What other team in the world can say that? I think we're just seeming some other teams (SA, Aus, maybe England) catching up a bit to the high standard New Zealand have been setting since 2011. They may well lose a game this tournament but they're still going to win it and probably clean up in the AIs up here in the Northern Hemisphere.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

[h=1]Is New Zealand losing its dominance in Rugby?[/h]
I've seen this thread before. Probably the same thing will come of it; more of NZ winning.

 

[goodNumber10]

I can't see Australia winning on Saturday with the their current line up, they will run NZ close at home, but they could really struggle in NZ.

I think they'll have more luck against SA - and should be way too strong for the Argentinians.