Is New Zealand losing its dominance in Rugby

[smartcooky]

Regarding the original point, no. The slump in the U20s might affect the adult mens side in a few years (after 2016 when you're looking to rebuild post-Word Cup) but right now the All Blacks squad looks strong in depth and experience across all positions except hooker. What other team in the world can say that? I think we're just seeming some other teams (SA, Aus, maybe England) catching up a bit to the high standard New Zealand have been setting since 2011. They may well lose a game this tournament but they're still going to win it and probably clean up in the AIs up here in the Northern Hemisphere.

Just because the age group teams don't win does not mean that the players won't be any good as they get older. The current All Blacks squad has quite a number of former age group player from Jerome Kaino (2004) to Patrick Tuipolotu (the first 2013 U20 player to get an All Black jersey).

Dominance (or lack of it) at age group has little if any bearing on what happens later, and the performances of the Black Ferns and the All Black Sevens has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the men's 15s game

 

[TRF_heineken]

Just because the age group teams don't win does not mean that the players won't be any good as they get older. The current All Blacks squad has quite a number of former age group player from Jerome Kaino (2004) to Patrick Tuipolotu (the first 2013 U20 player to get an All Black jersey).

Dominance (or lack of it) at age group has little if any bearing on what happens later, and the performances of the Black Ferns and the All Black Sevens has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the men's 15s game

Yes exactly this. If you look at the Springboks for example, we currently have Jan Serfontein, Handre Pollard and Eben Etzebeth all playing for the Senior side that at a time played together in the Junior World Cup. But other than that, you might get 1 or 2 guys that will make the cut for the senior side eventually.

If I have to look at this year's tournament, then the stand-out NZ'er, was Tevita Li, who ran other teams ragged. But I don't think he'll play for the All Blacks, mainly because he's not better IMHO than the current NZ wingers. And then again, you could get guys that played for the Junior All Blacks but underperformed and then in a few year's time, they get a call up as they have grown and gotten experience along the way...

 

[Patchey]

Just because the age group teams don't win does not mean that the players won't be any good as they get older. The current All Blacks squad has quite a number of former age group player from Jerome Kaino (2004) to Patrick Tuipolotu (the first 2013 U20 player to get an All Black jersey).

Dominance (or lack of it) at age group has little if any bearing on what happens later, and the performances of the Black Ferns and the All Black Sevens has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the men's 15s game

Of course, I'm not saying a few average years is going to cripple the national mens side or that some of those guys who didn't shine in the JWC won't develop into much better senior players. I was saying that if the U20s slump does have an effect, it won't be for a few years at the least anyway. And as you say, the Black Ferns and 7s have no bearing on the All Blacks, so I really see little evidence to say that your losing dominance.

If I was a Kiwi I'd be more worried about losing experienced heads to injury in the run up to 2015 than any issues with a lack of future talent. Carter looks like he won't make it, if a few of say McCaw, Smith, Mealamu (who is hardly the player he once was) and Reed start to pick up knocks as well that has to be more of a concern surely?

 

[Jack Reacher]

The way the professional game works in NZ wouldn't allow a major demise. The worst run we've had in my memory was 1998, 5 loses (Aus and Africa only) then the WC in France 99 and that was very quickly addressed by shifting players around the S15 franchises and blooding youngsters - something we have been very careful about recently because we haven't had to, look how well they managed both Smiths, Retallick, Piutau, Barrett, Cane and Cruden over the last couple of seasons.
If NZ doesn't win the WC next year, we will rebuild over the summer - the 2000-2002 rebuild produced some decent players (Hayman, Jack, Kelleher, Thorne, Carter, McCaw, Collins, Somerville, Mealamu, Howlett, Rokocoko, Muliaina, Williams etc.

 

[goodNumber10]

To be fair to the OP, they said New Zealands Dominance in Rugby, not the AB's dominance in Men's Test rugby.

 

[Big Ewis]

To be fair to the OP, they said New Zealands Dominance in Rugby, not the AB's dominance in Men's Test rugby.

yeah but he's mentioning them along with the AB, stating other NZ departments aren't doing well and then talks about the AB's preparation for the RWC. They're all separate things, at least the women's Rugby thing is. We're doing brilliantly atm with our women, even our youngsters, but suck diick with our regular xv de France.

I don't think "New Zealand is losing its dominance" at all, to answer the thread. I know the AB struggled in their first test (and *somewhat* the second) against England but look at how head and shoulders above England they were in the final test of the summer series, and England are that side everybody's been (rightfully) heralding as a rising world power and all...they were completely, completely outclassed during the whole test, just think of the Savea should've been "hat-trick" (thx Ben Smith for the unforced forward-pass...) they were just running in tries like in practice, way, way too easy.

 

[goodNumber10]

yeah, but rugby is more than one team - if he'd said the AB's are losing their Dominance yeah, fair enough, i'd understand the rest of the thread.

He doesn't put the AB's in the issues, he just mentions their prep and that he can't wait. The ony person who's really looked at the OP is Smartcooky.

 

[Patchey]

To be fair to the OP, they said New Zealands Dominance in Rugby, not the AB's dominance in Men's Test rugby.

Good point.

Does one poor peformance in a 7s tournament mean the 7s team have lost their dominance though? Admittedly its the first time they haven't one gold at the Commonwealth Games but how many World Series have they won in a row now?!

I honestly don't know enough about Women's Rugby at the top tier to comment on how the WRWC performance fits into any longer term patterns.

 

[profitius]

What these types of results signals is other countries catching up. Looking at NZs record over the last few years, theres alot of catching up to do.

 

[SimonG]

NZ will always be dominant in Rugby Union as there is no other nation that has it as its dominant sport. White South Africa will always be its biggest competitor. Australia the sport is now 4th in participation behind Aussie Rules, Rugby League and football. Meanwhile in Europe, to quote the BBC, "outside a few Welsh valleys and southwest France, every kid in Europe wants to be a football player".

NZ has Rugby Union as its religion. It has been and always will be the dominant Rugby Union nation.

 

[Peat]

I think that AB and NZ dominance in rugby could be linked.

The professional game has massively raised the level of resources that can be chucked at making a team. It's also lifted expectations of what can be achieved. Not everywhere has been able to follow the resource raise. Smartcooky says that the Baby and Lady Blacks are underprepared and need more resources. Does the NZRFU have them? Genuine question, I don't know how their financial position is.

Could this spill over to the men's team? I think it'd take about twenty years to do so, but its not impossible. Certainly hasn't happened yet, but it is quite possible that NZ aren't in a position to give the necessary attention to every representative team.

It should also be noted that pro rugby has resulted in more interest in the game in general. The more countries start getting the interest numbers to create rugby cultures sort of like NZ's, the more competition NZ will face. Again, it could take about twenty years for that to show at the men's level. The All Blacks' position is unlikely to be eroded anytime soon. But NZ as a whole... maybe.

well it's not such a redundant topic, I mean, why not ask the question every year or two ? The answer is NZ isn't actually losing its dominance as far as the AB are concerned. The only thing that comes close to that may be the Saffa youngsters beating the NZ youngsters, as those guys are the future of both nations after all, but I'm sure it's not a first (don't follow U20) and England for e.g. always wins everything there and that does not even nearly follow into the seniors, or else England would win the GS every year and be world champs every 2 Cups.

Its only been in the last four years that we've been genuine JWC contenders and only in about the last eight that we've been producing players from the new academy system. We haven't seen an England team formed of the new breed yet and as such, we have no real way of knowing how relevant England's recent under age success has been.

 

[nickdnz]

Meh, I love rugby and would love to see 30 countries be competitive at winning a RWC. Maybe we will lose our dominance...however we've been the #1 ranked team in XVs since 2009, so the world isn't yet coming to an end.

 

[Jaguares]

I'm not sure if Junior WC, Commonwealth 7s and Womens RWC are the correct parameters. For me Super Rugby it's more important and this year ALL NZ teams could have classified for the playoffs. I have to watch the Bledisloe Cup for give my verdict, if Aussies manage to impose something that showed in their last 7 games, then the NZ's leadership could be discussed.

 

[goodNumber10]

I say again, surely RUGBY is an all encompassing phrase though, it takes in every level of rugby in all forms of the sport.

In that context NZ have had a fallow year with only the AB's left to bring back the bacon.

Is their dominance gone, doubtful, they'll probably put more resources in those level they want to redress the balance again.

 

[William18]

Meh, I love rugby and would love to see 30 countries be competitive at winning a RWC. Maybe we will lose our dominance...however we've been the #1 ranked team in XVs since 2009, so the world isn't yet coming to an end.

This! Who actually cares if we lose our dominance? All I know is that I love my rugby and want my teams to win every single game. If some team comes along that is better than us well bloody good on them! None of us here are seers and none of us know what the future will hold. Personally, I'm just enjoying having one of the greatest rugby teams of all time. Brazil can get thrashed at the Football World Cup but who cares? They're still Brazil. They still have won more cups than any other team and will most likely continue to do so.

As for the issues mentioned, I feel that 7's is a "lucky" sport. Anyone can win on the day. The true measure of ability is over a series of tournaments and that was what we won. Junior rugby is just a means to an end. I don't care how our team does as long as it produces future All Blacks. Winning that competition now doesn't mean you'll be the best in the world in 5 years time if your players don't develop.

 

[Mumbles119]

This! Who actually cares if we lose our dominance? All I know is that I love my rugby and want my teams to win every single game. If some team comes along that is better than us well bloody good on them! None of us here are seers and none of us know what the future will hold. Personally, I'm just enjoying having one of the greatest rugby teams of all time. Brazil can get thrashed at the Football World Cup but who cares? They're still Brazil. They still have won more cups than any other team and will most likely continue to do so.

As for the issues mentioned, I feel that 7's is a "lucky" sport. Anyone can win on the day. The true measure of ability is over a series of tournaments and that was what we won. Junior rugby is just a means to an end. I don't care how our team does as long as it produces future All Blacks. Winning that competition now doesn't mean you'll be the best in the world in 5 years time if your players don't develop.

This! And another this for NickDNZ too!

Both are both possibly my favourite posts I have read here for a while, (excluding the entertaining insanities of Big Ewis of course).

Having giants in sport can only be a good thing to inspire and drive the success of others. And for us, the adoring fans, we love it when our team topples a Goliath. There is always hope, otherwise what is the point.