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Is the 2021 Lions Tour Doomed?

ncurd

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This means every fan would have to receive their first jab by mid April on the assumption they'll only travel over the week of the first test. Considering it's a safe estimate to say about 75% of Lions touring fans are between 35 and 60 and work in the tertiary sector it's just not going to happen, they're not prioritised.
First don't use the word immune even with second dose it doesn't make you immune just far less likely to get it. That slows the spread immeasurably but it doesn't mean you won't get it if you do keep getting exposed.

On vaccinations it's not going to happen especially in that group


We are currently averaging 400k on first vaccinations. That means with remaining population to be vaccinated on first dose in 28th June 2021. Except it won't be that because from 4th April we absolutely have to start giving 2nd vaccine doses which have basically stopped on 10th Jan. So they'll need to a massive slow down on 1st jabs late Feb/March so it isn't a master cluster **** and we stop giving 1st jabs entirely.

Were doing a superb job absolutely no doubt but the idea we'd be finished in July is simply not backed up by the numbers. Especially as noted the groups of people most likely to be going to a Lion's tour.
 

Old Hooker

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Given the chance, I’m sure a lot of fans would travel, but equally we’d probably see some changing behaviours too, especially in the 50+ age group. For my part, once jabbed, I’m not going to travel to any country that hasn’t properly completed their vaccination programme. Maybe over cautious but just not worth the risk in my book.
 

RedruthRFC

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Why is it so hard to fathom that it can still happen?

Most of the fans at the stadium, will be UK based fans. And all of them will have been vaccinated by then. What possible danger/threat can they be to when they have already been vaccinated?

What I was getting at with having Gauteng Vaccinated, is that in a hypothetical setting, should it happen, this tour can be easily completed with the minimal of changes being made.

Plus, if the DA can be successful, their application to have private organisations obtain vaccines, the possibility is there that a lot more people can be vaccinated a lot earlier.
Is this the MSM and / or government line in SA? It all seems utterly pie in the sky to me. AFAIK nobody knows whether vaccinated people will continue to be a vector of infection.
 

munstermuffin

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Vaccine is 1 part but for fans take here in Ireland. If you were to go to Tour you'd need 2 weeks minimum. Then on return you must quarantine for 2 weeks. And likely that will be in hotel that you pay for. The cost will be hard. I believe UK will be bringing in something similar. And as has been said Vaccine is not guaranteed immunity.
 

mdaclarke

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Reading the Runes. It is clear to me that the Tour will go ahead in South Africa. However it is likely to be behind closed doors.

Very sad
 

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Is this the MSM and / or government line in SA? It all seems utterly pie in the sky to me. AFAIK nobody knows whether vaccinated people will continue to be a vector of infection.
Fair enough. I used a hypothetical to show that there might be a way to have this tour with fans, if SARU and the Government can apply their minds.

It is a pipe dream yes.

I also understand that vaccinated people can still be carriers of the virus. And that can be another factor which might curtail these plans.

But I remain optimistic. It's now February, and we are getting daily news about the vaccines and it's distribution of it, and who knows, maybe more companies might get on board to produce the vaccine and distribute it around the world. One can only hope that by May/June, most of the world will be vaccinated.
 

RedruthRFC

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But I remain optimistic. It's now February, and we are getting daily news about the vaccines and it's distribution of it, and who knows, maybe more companies might get on board to produce the vaccine and distribute it around the world. One can only hope that by May/June, most of the world will be vaccinated.
The fact that we're aleady in February means that there's less than a couple of weeks to make a decision according to what the relevant bodies have already stated. You're essentially asking them to gamble on the ANC orchastrating the a wildly successful vaccination programme in less than 5 months. The UK are near as damn it 2 months into a vaccination programme that has been widely heralded as successful and includes multiple contracts for massive amounts of vaccine doses, this has only resulted in half a million or so vaccinated individuals so far.
 

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The fact that we're aleady in February means that there's less than a couple of weeks to make a decision according to what the relevant bodies have already stated. You're essentially asking them to gamble on the ANC orchastrating the a wildly successful vaccination programme in less than 5 months. The UK are near as damn it 2 months into a vaccination programme that has been widely heralded as successful and includes multiple contracts for massive amounts of vaccine doses, this has only resulted in half a million or so vaccinated individuals so far.

I hear you. And I see WR said yesterday that they will only make a decision end of March.

And time is definitely not on our side. I don't want them to take a gamble at the risk of people getting sick or even dying.

In a time of so much pessimism, I remain optimistic that this tour will go on as planned. It would be such a pity if the Springboks can't play. Especially since the are the only national team in the top 10, that didn't play a single game last year...
 

The_Blindside

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Johnny being Johnny doesn’t really answer the question.
 

munstermuffin

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If Lions Tour was tomorrow Gatland would go Farrell at 10 as he is better kicker.

For Lions spirit Russell at 10 and a playmaking 12 like Farrell would be ideal with Ringrose at 13. Back 3 of Hogg, May and ???
 

living sacrifice

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If Lions Tour was tomorrow Gatland would go Farrell at 10 as he is better kicker.

For Lions spirit Russell at 10 and a playmaking 12 like Farrell would be ideal with Ringrose at 13. Back 3 of Hogg, May and ???
Farrell isn’t a playmaker at 12, he is a distributor. If he doesn’t have playmakers around him he falls apart.
 

munstermuffin

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Farrell isn’t a playmaker at 12, he is a distributor. If he doesn’t have playmakers around him he falls apart.
I don't know. Always rated Farrell like aSexton style 10. Sexton better but Farrell in that mould of a 10
 

munstermuffin

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I imagine having the tour in SA is officially off the table at this point - the Rainbow Cup runs until June 19th, Lions tour starts about 3 weeks after
Munster have been contacted about 1 of the franchises basing themselves in Limerick. They plan on being here for 9-10 weeks.

Also have heard from a few in know the SA Franchises accept they won't be playing the Lions so the tour games are off the table already it seems. So Lions squad may just be 30 lads as it is for 3 tests only it seems.
 

mdaclarke

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Full crowds in England from June 2021.

If South Africa goes at the same rate (or slightly quicker) then the tour could take place in South Africa.
If not then it could take place in England with full crowds.

Can't see it not going ahead this year in some form now.
 

TommiG88

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Full crowds in England from June 2021.

If South Africa goes at the same rate (or slightly quicker) then the tour could take place in South Africa.
If not then it could take place in England with full crowds.

Can't see it not going ahead this year in some form now.
It won’t happen in South Africa with crowds. Crowdless or the U.K. are probably the options.
 

mdaclarke

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It won’t happen in South Africa with crowds. Crowdless or the U.K. are probably the options.

I think they would rather have in UK with Crowds (Revenue shared) than in South Africa without crowds
 

ncurd

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I'd also put some caveats on UK that's the current plan. But only if things carry on going well, it might not.

It's absolutely wont happen in front of crowds in SA who are way behind us.
 

TommiG88

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I'd also put some caveats on UK that's the current plan. But only if things carry on going well, it might not.

It's absolutely wont happen in front of crowds in SA who are way behind us.
And will be going into their winter so transmissions won’t drop sharply.
 

mdaclarke

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If it has to be in the UK then I would want an 4 game tour to make it special

1. Murrayfield
2. Millennium Stadium
3. Twickenham
4. Aviva Stadium (if Ireland permits)

That would be awesome.
 
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