ITM Cup - Premiership semi-finals

[Darwin]

Saturday 20th October:

AMI Stadium (Addington), Christchurch. 4.35pm.
​

Westpac Stadium, Wellington. 7.05pm
​

 

[easy2288]

If Canterbury wins the semis, the final will be held in their home ground?

 

[Darwin]

If Canterbury wins the semis, the final will be held in their home ground?

Indeed this is the case.

 

[Helmy]

Heart says Taranaki... Head says Canterbury trounce us then Wellington choke against them in the final, which is how the script usually goes.

 

[Darwin]

Wellington: 1. Reg Goodes, 2. Dane Coles, 3. Jeffrey Toomaga-Allen, 4. Jeremy Thrush (capt), 5. Mark Reddish, 6. Ross Filipo, 7. Scott Fuglistaller, 8. Ardie Savea, 9. Frae Wilson, 10. Tim Bateman, 11. Jason Woodward, 12. Shaun Treeby, 13. Alipate Leiua, 14. Matt Proctor, 15. Charlie Ngatai.

Reserves: 16. Motu Matu'u, 17. Eric Sione, 18. Lua Lokotui, 19. Genesis Mamea, 20. Kayne Hammington, 21. Lima Sopoaga, 22. Ambrose Curtis.

Auckland:1. Pauliasi Manu, 2. Tom McCartney, 3. Angus Ta'avao, 4. Liaki Moli, 5. Ali Williams or Andrew Van der Heijden, 6. Steven Luatua, 7. Daniel Braid (capt), 8. Joe Edwards, 9. Alby Mathewson, 10. Gareth Anscombe, 11. Dave Thomas, 12. Hadleigh Parkes, 13. Malakai Fekitoa, 14. Ben Lam, 15.Charles Piutau.
Reserves: 16. Nathan Vella, 17. Siosiua Halonukonuka, 18. Van der Heijden or Nathan Hughes, 19. Sean Polwart, 20. Scott Patterson, 21. Simon Hickey, 22. Lolagi Visinia.

This is the pick of the weekends playoff matches for me. Wellington look to have the edge in the front-row, but I do like how young Ta'avao has developed this ITM Cup season. The locks are pretty even (regardless of whether Williams is fit), as are the loose-forwards. Both teams have 6's who are equally capable at lock, so have plenty of options at lineout time. I'm not convinced about Savea at 8, as I think he has played his best rugby this season in the 7 jersey (I would have started him at 7 with Mamea at 8).

I think Auckland have an advantage in the halves. Mathewson has been quite good during the ITM Cup, and while Wilson has improved I'm still not a big fan. Bateman has done well at 10 for the Canes, but Anscombe has been very good for Auckland this season, and could punish Wellington with the boot (He is kicking at around 85% during the ITM Cup season). I think the midfields are pretty even - Wellington's players are probably more threatening with ball in hand, but I'm not convinced about Leiua's distribution at centre, while Auckland's midfield is very solid on defense and will run hard and straight all day. Some good battles out wide too. Lam and Woodward have had their moments during the season and are pretty even in my opinion - Woodward is more consistent, better under the high ball and has a better work-rate, but Lam is a massive threat with ball in hand with his combination of pace and power. I think Proctor has the advantage over Thomas on the other wing, who looked painfully slow and un-threatening against Otago in his last match. Piutau is Auckland's biggest attacking threat, while I have been very impressed with Ngatai since he moved back to fullback.

I'm going to pick Auckland by 5, but I do think it is a game that could go either way.

 

[Tekadus7]

Well we've got a big final; Canterbury hosting Auckland. Taranaki came painfully close, and then got thrashed, it was my two worst case scenarios in one.